Issue #757
Mar 20, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls Gain Short-Term Edge. Some Recovery Being Seen!
DOW Friday closing price - 34754
The bulls made a statement this past week with all indexes rallying over 5.9% above last week's close (NASDAQ rallied 7.8%). All indexes closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW at 34755, SPX at 4465, NAZ at 14427 and RUT at 2087). The main reason for the rally was that all the questions regarding the Fed rate increase plan were answered (meaning the game plan is now clear). It is a game plan that, "as stated", is supposed to address the inflation problem successfully (according to the Fed). In addition, commodities in general (Gold and Oil for example) fell from the highs, suggesting that the traders did take the Fed action as positive. Last but not least, the market was oversold and at critical support levels that would generate automatic selling if broken and that was something that the market is evidently not yet ready for.
The Tech industry was the leader of the rally (NASDAQ rallied the most) and that was another contributing factor to this rally being at least a short-term statement. The Tech industry has taken the brunt of the selling and having them lead the rally was a calming and confirming-of-the-rally factor. In addition, the index did generate a key reversal week, having made a new 10-month intraweek low and then closing above the previous week's high. As such, the chart itself confirmed the validity of this rally and the likely continuation of it for at least a few weeks.
The attention will now turn to the resistance levels above, as far as how far this rally can go without seeing decent computer and algorithm selling. In the DOW, there is some minor resistance at 35091 but then decent up between 35631 and 35824. A break above 35824 would be a bull statement (unlikely to happen under the present fundamental conditions). As such, the index could rally as much as 1000 points above Friday's close. In the SPX, there is basically open air up to 4545. Above that level, there is pivotal resistance at 4595 that is also unlikely to be broken under the present conditions. As such, the index could rally another 80-120 points before encountering new and decent selling interest. In the NASDAQ, there is open air up to 15169. The 15193 level is midterm pivotal. It would not be as strong to the upside as perhaps a break in the DOW above 35824 but it would be a short-term game changer as it would likely generate a rally up to 15696. As such, you are looking at another 640 points to the upside before encountering selling resistance. If the buying in the Tech industry continues to lead the way, the additional rally could be seen and the index outperform the other indexes.
The RUT is the most interesting of all given that the index closed on Friday just 18 points from a midterm pivotal resistance level at 2105. A break above that level (looking likely) would leave open air above to the 2300 level, meaning an 8.7% rally above resistance. With the other indexes, less than a 3% rally is the expected outcome. Even if the NASDAQ breaks its midterm resistance, the rally up to the next resistance at 15696, the rally would only be an 8% rally (less than the RUT). This does strongly suggest that the traders are "going to key" on small cap stocks. That does make sense as a rally in the small cap area is usually the last phase of a bull market run.
As far as there being some pivotal level nearby that could negate this short-term positive outlook, the 200-day MA's are the ones the traders will be keying on this week. The DOW and the SPX are the only ones that are close to the line (based on Friday's close). In the DOW, the MA line is at 34975 and in the SPX it is at 4470. If the bears have any hope of stopping this rally, those lines would need to hold up by keeping the indexes below the lines on a daily closing basis, or at least not allowing them to close above the line for 2-3 days in a row. The momentum gained this past week by the bulls, does not suggest those MA lines will stop the rally. It is of interest to know that in the NASDAQ that MA line is presently at 15102 and that is also the area where midterm pivotal resistance is found. This would suggest that the other indexes will break the line but the NAZ only go up to the line, which ultimately would mean that the rally would fail for the mid-to-long term outlook.
Anyhow, for this week (and probably the next one), the bulls should have the edge if not short-term control. When the next round of important reports start to come out (first to second week of April), thing could get dicey for the bulls again. Until then, "trading" the market on the long side seems to be the way to go.
OIL has dropped 28.4% in price (on an intraweek basis) from high to low over the last 2 weeks. That does suggest that the spike high made the previous week at 130.50 is now an established resistance level that is likely to require some tangibly positive fundamental news to break. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, the drop has only been 9.1 percent, meaning that the uptrend remains intact for the long term but not for the short or midterm. Oil did generate a failure signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday below the important and pivotal breakout point at 107.26. Such action does suggest that for now, Oil is likely to be on a sideways trading range until the fundamentals change one way or the other. Daily close resistance is now found at 127.30 and support at 95.04. Trading within that range for at least the next 2-3 weeks is likely to be seen. Then again, on a weekly closing basis, resistance is now found at 113.93 and pivotal at 115.68. Any weekly close below 92.72 would be a sign that the uptrend is over. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week but Oil is unlikely to close above 107.26 next Friday.
DOLLAR generated a red weekly close on Friday, making the previous weekly close at 99.12 into a successful retest of the established and decent weekly close resistance between 99.09 and 99.26. As such, it is now evident that to go further to the upside, a positive fundamental change will need to occur to break that resistance area. The likely downside target of this correction is 97.27 (based on a weekly close). Trading between these two levels is likely to occur for at least the next 2-3 weeks.
BITCOIN has been stuck in an intraweek trading range between 32981 and 45851 for the past 8 weeks and at this time, it does seem that trading range will continue for at least the next 2-3 weeks. Bitcoin is likely to close near or on the high of the week tomorrow (Sunday). It is presently trading at 42001 and further upside is likely to be seen next week, meaning the bulls are likely to have first shot at breaking a pivotal level (resistance in this case). There is weekly close resistance at 42339 that if broken, would give the bulls some new ammunition. Nonetheless, the probabilities do favor Bitcoin not breaking out of its intraweek trading range at this time.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
With the indexes and stocks generating an indicative rally this past week and the RUT being the leader of the rally, it seems that this is a week where purchases of small cap stocks is likely to be "the thing to do". With the presently held oil stocks (CVE and DVN) likely to be liquidated this week, it will give extra funds to do some purchasing of other non-energy and non-metal stocks that may benefit from their oversold and price depressed levels. As such, all mentions this week will be in that category (depressed small cap stocks).
PRTS Friday Closing Price - 7.49
PRTS is a car parts company that has been on a strong decline over the past 7 months, having dropped from a high of 20.74 to last week's low at 5.90. Just 5 weeks ago, the stock dropped down to the 200-week MA, currently at 7.40. The previous week, the line was broken with a weekly close at 7.07 but this week the stock generated a positive reversal, having gone intraweek below the line to 5.90 but then closing above the line with the 7.49 close. This means that the line seems to have been tested successfully, if and when another green close occurs this Friday.
PRTS shows minor intraweek resistance at 8.84 and at 10.17 and then mostly open air (on an intraweek basis) until 16.44 is reached. It must be mentioned that since the $7 level has held as "general" support, it almost always means that a rally up to the "general" resistance at the $10 is reached. This does suggest that at least about a $3 rally is to be seen over the next couple of weeks.
PRTS has not yet tested the 5.90 level on the daily chart and therefore that is likely to be seen this week before an attempt for higher prices occurs. There is intraweek support at 7.00 and the 200 10-minute MA is presently at 6.93. As such, the desired entry point into this trade is 6.93-7.03. It is evident that if this small cap rally is to occur, that last week's low in at 5.90 is not to be seen and much less broken. As such, a stop loss at 5.80 is what will be used for this mention. As such, a rally up to the $10 level would offer a 2.5-1 risk/reward ratio. By the same token, if the bulls are able to get the stock above the $10 level on a weekly closing basis, a rally up to the $14-$16 would likely occur, meaning the risk/reward ratio on this trade could be 6-1 or even 8-1. I give this trade a probability number of 3.5-1 (on a 1-5 scale with 5 being the highest).
GBT Friday Closing Price - 32.59
GBT is a biopharmaceutical company that keys on sickle disease. The stock was trading at 87.54 just 26 months ago but got into a downtrend that ended when the stock reached 24.61 in December. Since then, the stock has been building a "rounded bottom" (strongest bottoms available), with already 2 successful retests of that bottom and ending with a potential spike high rally this past week, which does suggest a breakout is imminent. With small cap stocks presently supported, this is a high probability-of-success purchase.
GBT broke above the 200-day MA, currently at 30.62, on Friday and did it in a strong spike-type fashion. For confirmation of the breakout though, the previous intraweek high at 34.82 needs to be broken. It is likely though, that a drop down to the MA line will be seen first and as such, that line will need to be reached before any buying of the stock should occur (not a chaseable stock at this time). There is quite a bit of intraweek support at the $30 demilitarized zone (29.70-30.30), meaning the desired entry point will be between 29.75 and 30.63).
To the upside and if 34.82 is broken, GBT shows open air to 40.69, which is a minor to decent resistance. Nonetheless and with a strong support base having being built, a rally up to at least the 200-week MA, currently at 48.25, is the expectation and mention's objective. Stop loss will be at 26.65 (below the most recent successful retest of the low, which was at 27.11). As such, a purchase at 30.63 and using a stop loss at 26.65 and having at 48.25 objective will offer at least a 4-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
VNET Friday Closing Price - 6.45
VNET is the second-largest Chinese carrier-neutral and Cloud-neutral data center provider. The stock got to an all-time high at 44.45 in February of last year and then has dropped 92% in value to last week's all-time low at 3.51. Nonetheless, the stock generated a key reversal this past week, having made the new all-time low and then going above the previous week's high and closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.14 will be seen. In addition, the stock is showing and island formation on the daily chart, given that it gapped down on Monday from 4.67 to 4.29 and gapped up on Wednesday from 3.95 to 4.73. The weekly reversal and island formation (not yet confirmed) do strongly suggest that the stock has found a bottom.
VNET has no resistance of consequence above until 9.36 and a bit stronger and definitely midterm pivotal at 10.29. Above that level, there is open air to the 200-week MA, currently at 15.29, which is the mentions objective.
Island formations are extremely rare and most often closed. Nonetheless, when not closed, they portend not only a major bottom but also a strong recovery rally. The island formation is likely to be tested this week, especially given that there was no specific positive news for the company. The rally mostly occurring off of the Chinese government statement that they are going to strongly support their market and their economy. As such, a test of the island is likely to be seen, which in turn would give a very favorable entry point to the trade with small risk potential and a large profit potential.
Purchases of VNET around the $5 level (preferably just below $5) and using a stop loss at 3.41 and having at 15.29 objective will offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AU made a new 16-month intraweek high the previous week but the bulls were unable to confirm the breakout on the weekly closing chart and the stock has fallen back from that high a total of 15.6%. The stock closed on Friday in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 22.78 will be seen this week. On a negative note, the stock now shows a double high on the weekly closing chart at 25.50/25.53 and that suggests that the bulls need a positive fundamental change to occur to break that level. Such a change is not likely to occur until the next set of economic reports come out the first 2 weeks of April. Nonetheless and on a weekly closing basis, the stock shows support at 22.75, which does include the 100-week MA. It is also unlikely that level will be broken during this period of time. Short-term pivotal daily close support is found at 21.84, while pivotal daily close resistance is found at 25.76. Probabilities favor the stock trading between 22.75 and 25.50 for the next 2-3 weeks. CVE generated a new 5-week intraweek low, having dropped 16% from the previous week's high to last week's low. Nonetheless, the stock rallied to close just 5% below the previous week's close and close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 15.80 will be seen this week. In looking at the 6-year chart, the stock has found a level of resistance at 16.84 that is unlikely to be broken without some positive fundamental news that would make Oil go higher, meaning that the stock is now likely to trade between 13.00 and 16.50 for at least the next 2-3 week. The intraweek resistance between 16.07 and 17.23 is copious as there are 6 different occasions (back between Sep 2015 and Dec 2016) where those highs stopped the rally. The purchase of this stock was based on the momentum seen in Oil but since that momentum has stopped, consideration should be given to taking the small profits available (on any rally above 16.00 (existing resistance found at 16.17) and looking elsewhere for now. DVN has dropped 20.5% over the past 2 weeks (based on the intraweek high and low seen during this time). Nonetheless, the stock did rally from last week's low to close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 58.63 is expected to be seen. The stock did get close to a level of resistance from Sep 2012 at 63.84, with the previous week's high at 63.10, which in turn suggest that further upside will be difficult to achieve, especially considering that oil seems to have found a top for now. In addition, above 63.86 there is a mountain of resistance around 66.50 and given that support is now found at $50 and that is likely to be seen again in the near future, consideration should be given to liquidating the stock on any rally above the $60 level and taking the small profits achieved. The chart suggests that for the next few weeks, the trading range for the stock is going to the $50 on the downside and 61.30 on the upside. ENG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low and then turning around to close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.50 will be seen this week. The stock saw a 55% drop in price from the previous week's high to last week's low due to a worse than expected earnings report that was caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, the report also stated that things are getting back to normal and that the company expects a significantly positive turn-around year. It does seem that the drop was overdone as the follow through to the downside was minimal and new buying did come in last week. In addition and other than the earnings report, there have been several very positive-to-the-future events/contracts that have occurred of late, suggesting that the company is moving forward and that the present prices do not reflect what the future is likely to bring. The 200-week MA, currently at 1.61, remains the only close by obstacle that is of a pivotal nature. The 200-day MA, currently at 2.01, would be then be the next objective to overcome. That line did get broken the previous week but then the break was negated. Last week's low at 1.15 is the new and pivotal support level. This coming week, it will all be about the 200-week MA on the close next Friday. On a daily closing basis, if the 1.78 level gets broken, the probabilities of the 200-week MA getting broken as well will be high. FSLR generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 78.80 will be seen this week. The stock has now generated 4 green weekly closes in a row (after 16 red weeks in a row) and having gone below the previous week's low, it does suggest that a successful retest of the 61.70 low and of the 200-week MA at 67.01 has now occurred. The previous week's high at 81.80 is pivotal short-term resistance but it is not yet an established resistance, meaning it is minor at best. A break above that level leaves open air above up to 89.20. Further and a bit stronger resistance is found at 91.12, which is the present objective of the mention. Last week's low at 70.52 is now considered support. Probabilities favor the bulls. PLNHF made a new 21-month intraweek and weekly closing low but on a weekly closing basis, the bulls were able to stay above the 2.00 level that was pivotal support for 2 months in 2018 and for 7 months in 2019. The bulls were also able to close slightly above the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going above last week's high at 2.27 than below last week's low at 1.85. With the overall market leaning to the upside for the next couple of weeks, and there not being any new negative news on the company, probabilities do favor the bulls. Intraweek resistance is found at 2.50 and stronger at 2.70, which the latter shows resistance that is unlikely to be broken without some outside catalyst occurring. The 2.00 level should continue to be support, and also unlikely to be broken for the next 2-3 weeks. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. SCCO generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 74.35 will be seen this week. The intraweek low at 67.30 does fulfill the reaching of a support level that is found between 66.41 and 67.80. That area of support has 2 previous intraweek lows, 1 previous weekly closing low and 2 previous weekly closing highs, meaning it is decent to strong and dependable, as far as there being no new news. One positive thing is that it was expected that the stock would generate a "weekly close" in the $67 to $69 level but the close was at 74.41 and it was a green weekly close as the previous week's close was 74.74.07. This is possibly suggestive of a bit more bull strength than the chart suggested previously. Nonetheless, the bulls do have an intraweek level of resistance at 76.62 that will need to be broken this week in order to keep the bulls strength for the short-term. If that level is broken, further upside is likely to be seen with the all-time high at 83.29 at least tested. If not broken this week, more "backing and filling" is likely to occur for the next 2-3 weeks, with a trading range that could be as low as 69.00 and as high as 76.00. ZLAB generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 35-month intraweek low at 25.74 and then turning around to close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 40.79 expected to be seen this week. The reason for the rally was two-fold 1) the $30 level seems to be a strong fundamental support level from which further downside (like seen last week) is unlikely to be supported and 2) the Chinese government stated this past week that it will strongly support its stock market and economy at this level. On that news, which came out on Wednesday, the stock gapped up and then on Thursday, the bears tried to close the gap down at 30.14 with a low at 32.98. Nonetheless, the bears failed to close the gap and on Friday, the stock went above Thursday's high and closed near the high of the week. If the bulls are able to get above the gap high at 40.79 this week (especially if the stock gaps up on Monday above Friday's high at 40.17, the validity of the gap will be confirmed and a potential breakaway/runaway gap formation would occur. Such a formation would be confirmation that a bottom has been found and that a recovery rally of some consequence is occurring. There is some minor daily close resistance at 42.01 and then nothing until minor intraweek resistance is reached at 54.35/55.09. Pivotal midterm resistance is found at 61.29. At this time, closure of the gap would be a negative as the gap has not taken on the veil of support. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .522. 2) CVE - Purchased at 14.37. Averaged long at 15.51 (3 mentions). Stop loss at 15.40. Stock closed on Friday at 15.33. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0204. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .03. 5) ZLAB - Purchased at 26.58. Averaged long at 71.955 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 38.73. 6) AU - Averaged long at 28.423 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 23.43. 7) NEM - Purchased at 72.27. Averaged long at 72.62 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 73.96. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 3.378 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.43. 9) DVN - Purchased at 50.870. Averaged long at 55.56 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 58.27. 10) FSLR - Averaged long at 69.99 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 77.60. 11) SCCO - Purchased at 67.49. Averaged long at 72.51 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 74.31. 12) PLNHF - Purchased at 2.92. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.07. 13) NEM - Purchased at 73.26. Liquidated at 72.69. Loss on the trade of $57 per 100 shares.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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