Issue #750
Jan 30, 2022 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Correction Over? Probably.
DOW Friday closing price - 34725
With the exception of the RUT, all indexes generated a positive reversal week, having made multi-month lows and then generating a green weekly close on Friday. The positive reversals seen do suggest that a bottom to this correction has been found with the DOW having generated a 10.3% intraweek correction, the SPX a 12.4% intraweek correction, the NASDAQ an 18.2% intraweek correction and the RUT a 23% intraweek correction. A 20% correction is a dependable sign that the trend has changed. Nonetheless, that 20% trend changing drop is measured on a weekly closing basis, meaning that none of the indexes effectively/officially signaled that a trend change had occurred as on a weekly closing basis, the RUT dropped 19.3% and all the others less than that. As such, the chances of a resumption of the uptrend are still alive. On the other side of the coin though, this correction occurred in January and that has seasonally been an up month (not a correction month). Adding to that is the fact that the fundamental picture has changed as interest rates will be going up for the first time in a decade and when those factors are added up, the probabilities of a top having been formed are high.
Either way, all indexes except the RUT closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week. In the DOW, last week's high was 34815, in the SPX, it was 4453, in the NASDAQ, it was 14646. The RUT closed slightly in the lower half (closed at 1968 and the midpoint was 1975) and that suggests an equal chance of going above last week's high at 2048 or below last week's low at 1901. It is evident that the RUT will be the index to watch this week simply because for any possible resumption of the uptrend, all indexes have to be in agreement as to the direction. If the RUT goes below last week's low, it will suggest that this week's rally was not all that the charts show it to be and that would open the door for a failure and negative reversal to occur in the overall market.
Probabilities do favor further upside across the board as there are no close by resistance levels where the bears can gather and stop further upside. In the DOW, the next intraweek resistance level of consequence is found at 35091 and that is considered minor. The level where a bit more resistance strength can be found is at 35631. In the SPX, the next intraweek resistance level of consequence is found at 4545 and in the NASDAQ it is at 15125 (minor) and a bit stronger at 15701. The 200-day MA's are going to be magnets this week and therefore highly likely to be reached. In the DOW, that line is at 34976, in the SPX that line is at 4435 and in the NASDAQ it is at 15012. The lines are only valid resistance on a daily closing basis and the SPX is already at the line having closed on Friday at 4431. As such and in this index, the traders will be watching last week's high as a short-term pivot point. That level is at 4453. If that level gets broken, there is "open air" to 4545.
In the case of all indexes moving up this week, the key index will be the SPX as the 4545 level is short-to-midterm pivotal. Evidently, if the index gets that high, the 200-day MA's will have been broken decisively by all indexes, suggesting the correction will "officially" be over. A break of that level, especially on a daily closing basis, will open the door for a rally back up to the 4700 level, which is actually the upside objective for the index on the scenario of a retest of the all-time high before a downtrend is to begin. A break above 4700 would suggest the uptrend is resuming. This is what is at stake for this coming 7 weeks until the next FOMC rate decision comes out.
In looking at the support levels below, as I stated above, if the RUT goes below last week's low at 1901 (which by the way is where the 100-week MA is currently at), it would be a negative sign for the overall market. Nonetheless and in looking at the support levels of the other indexes, Friday was a positive reversal "day" meaning the indexes went below Thursday's lows and turned around and in the case of the NASDAQ, it was a true reversal day and it went above Thursday's high as well and closed above it. What this means is that Friday's lows (DOW at 33807, SPX at 4392 and NAZ at 13880) are somewhat pivotal. If broken, this week's rally will lose much of its recovery strength.
This coming week, there are a slew of economic and earnings reports that could be somewhat catalytic. I say "somewhat" because right now the market is moving more on the interest rate scenario than on any earnings or economic reports. Nonetheless, these reports still mean something and can affect the minds of the traders. On the economic report side scenario, the ISM Index report comes out on Tuesday and it is expected to be 57.5% (last month it was 58.7%). Above 65% of below 50% would be catalytic. Otherwise, it is not likely to have much of an effect. On Friday, the JOBS report comes out and it is expected to be 180k (last month it was 199k). Anything above 400k or below 0k would be catalytic. Otherwise, it is not likely to have much of an effect.
On the earnings side of this coming week, GOOGL reports on Tuesday afternoon and AMZN reports on Thursday afternoon. Other than possibly affecting the dichotomy between the DOW and the NASDAQ, I do not believe these earnings reports will have much of an impact unless both come is substantially worse than expected (like NLFX did this past week and even then, it probably would not have a strong effect on the market.
For now, the traders are mostly keying on the interest rate scenario for this year and as such, there is not likely to be much indicative movement in either direction until March when the Fed has stated they will begin raising interest rates. The Omicron virus situation can still be somewhat catalytic but mostly to the upside as the worst of that virus is already factored in and things are getting better. If a new strain pops up it could be a negative but right now any "official" announcement of the Omicron strain being over will likely help the bulls.
Probabilities do favor the bulls this week but likely on a limited basis, at least until the Jobs Report comes out. Volatility is likely to continue but the question that will likely be asked this week is "how much upside can be expected to be seen".
OIL made a new 64-month high weekly close and also broke the minor weekly close resistance from 2009 at 85.52, meaning that chart-wise, the door is wide open for a rally up to the "next" weekly close resistance level at 91.51, which is more minor that 85.52 was. On the monthly closing chart, resistance is found at 86.15, meaning that the bulls still need to close above that level on Monday to insure a breakout. Nonetheless, the probabilities do favor that occurring as Oil closed at 87.31 on Friday. If all of this occurs on Monday (likely), there is no resistance above (on the monthly closing chart) until 96.47 is reached and even that is minor resistance. Minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 97.49. To the downside and on a daily closing basis, pivotal support is now found at 83.31. On the weekly closing chart, support is found at 83.76. A close below those two levels would generate a failure signal against the bulls. Probabilities favor the bulls.
DOLLAR generated the biggest up week since June of last year, having made a new 43-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closing near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 97.44 will be seen this week. This move did break the weekly close resistance at 96.36, what was set in August 2018. The Dollar is now at the next weekly close resistance between 97.32 and 97.44. There is quite a bit of resistance in this area, suggesting the bulls will have "some" trouble getting above but if they are able to close above 97.44, the next level of weekly close resistance is at 98.01 and above that is what could be the objective to be reached over the next few months at 99.11. Getting above 99.11 is going to require some strong fundamental positives to break. As far as support below, support is now found between 95.50 and 96.36 (on a weekly closing basis). Probabilities favor the bears having a decent edge over the next 6 weeks.
BITCOIN will generate a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-month intraweek low but then turning around to close green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high (so far) at 38901 will be seen this week. This drop down to 32981 does fulfill the downside objective of the potential up channel that I mentioned last week, meaning that the probabilities now favor a recovery rally. On a weekly closing basis, there is no resistance above until 40171 is reached. Further weekly close resistance is found between 42711 and 43086, which if broken would confirm the correction is over and open the door for a rally to the 47000-50000 level. Nonetheless, on the daily closing chart, a close above 43909 is needed for full confirmation. On a daily closing basis, support is now found at 35103, which if broken would give back control to the bears. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Based on the action seen this week, I believe the probabilities favor some recovery occuring. If nothing else, the support levels below are clearly defined, meaning that purchasing stocks offers at least a clearly defined and small risk factor. As such, mentions this week will all be purchases. Then again, I have tried to find stocks that offer enough volatility so that profits can be made in a fast manner but stocks that offer a workable risk/reward ratio using very dependable support levels and highly "conservative" objectives that offer a high probability of success.
In addition, all of these mentions are 100% based on charts (fundamental picture was not involved). Things are still not all that clear as to what industries may benefit from this present economic scenario. As such, picking stocks based on what the industry is likely to do is still a very difficult chore.
PURCHASES
FSLR Friday Closing Price - 73.42
Purchses of FSLR around the 72.55 level and using a stop loss at 69.65 and having an upside objective of $80, will offer a 2.5-1 risk Reward ratio. The $80 level is highly conservative as the chart does show a decent probability of getting up to $90-$95 over the next 6 weeks.
TRIP Friday Closing Price - 25.85
Purchases of TRIP around the 25.55 level and using a stop loss at 24.26 and having an upside objective of 31.05, will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio. The $31 level is a highly conservative objective as the chart does suggest the stock could get up as high 36.94 over the next 6 weeks.
BGNE Friday Closing Price - 212.82
Purchases of BGNE below $204 and using a stop loss at 194.40 and having an upside objective of $240, will offer a 3.6-risk/reward ratio. The $240 level is highly conservative objective as the chart does suggest the stock could get up as high $323 over the next 6 weeks.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AU generated a new 3-month intraweek, daily and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 17.78 will be seen. The multi-month daily and weekly closing low was not broken by much, meaning that if a green daily and weekly close above 18.52/18.54 occurs, the break will be negated (stock closed at 17.94 on Friday). The stock did also close below the 200-week MA, currently at 18.25, meaning that if a close above that level occurs next Friday, this break will be erased. If that does not occur, there is no support below until the 17.08 level is reached (on a weekly closing basis). This break is currently only for a short-term outlook as the bears may have only gained a short-term edge but not yet control. A confirmed daily close above the 200-day MA, currently at 19.47, would give the bulls back their edge. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week. BTZI continues to trade in the sideways trading range it has been in for the past 2 months. On a daily closing basis, support is at .037 and resistance is at .057. Until one of those levels get broken, the sideways trend is likely to continue. The stock closed at .041 on Friday. CALM generated a 2nd red weekly close, confirming that the stock remains in a mid-term sideways trend and still in a long term bear trend. Nonetheless, the short-term uptrend that started in August remains in place, in spite of the 9.8% drop in price that the stock has experienced over the past 2 weeks. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, having made a new 19-day low but then going above Thursday's high and closing on the high of day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside. On the daily chart, the 38.00 level is pivotal support and the stock did get down to 38.25 on Friday and turned around, suggesting that the bulls are likely to see further upside this week. The key level to watch is 41.37. A break above that level would suggest the bulls have regained the edge they have had the past 3 weeks. As it is, this stock has been outperforming the indexes and that means that if the indexes go up, this stock will likely outperform them again. Any daily close below 37.85 would be a cause for concern. Probabilities favor the bulls. DDD generated a new 53-week intraweek and weekly close last week but the bulls were able to rally the stock enough to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 17.60 than below last week's low at 15.33. What is more important is that if the stock goes above last week's high, a successful retest of the 200-week MA will have occurred. The line is presently at 15.12. The MA line was broken to the upside 53 weeks go and a successful retest of the line is a positive. On a daily closing basis, a close above 17.77 will generate a failure signal against the bears and if confirmed with a weekly close above 19.21, it would likely mean that a recovery rally of consequence has started, which would offer a rally back up to the $30 (at least). Failure to generate this failure signal against the bulls, in conjunction with a daily close below 16.03 would be reason to liquidate the positions. ENG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 26-month intraweek low but then turning around to close green. Unfortunately for the bulls, the green close was still slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at .75 than above last week's high at 1.07. It is important to note that the stock got down within $.01 cents of a major pivotal support at $.74 cents and with the stock trading below book value and not having any new fundamental negatives, it is highly unlikely that the bears will be successful in making new lows. In addition, the earnings report is due out in 9 trading days (February 10) and the outlook is not likely to support the price being this low. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at last week's high at 1.07. If that level gets broken, it is likely that a short-covering rally will occur ahead of the earnings report. The 1.29 level remains pivotal on all charts. Until a close above that level occurs, the bears will remain in control or at least with the edge. FSLR generated a new 8-month intraweek and weekly closing low on Friday, meaning that the stock has now dropped 43% in price over the past 11 week, of which the last 10 of those week have been red closes. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 69.86 than above last week's high at 79.40. Nonetheless, some buying interest was seen on Friday, given that a positive reversal day occurred and a close on the high of the day, suggesting the first course of business for the week will be to the upside and above Friday's high at 73.90. The stock has reached a level of support of consequence (between $67-$70) which, at this time, is going to require negative fundamental news to break. There seems to be nothing-of-the-kind (negative fundamental news) on the horizon at this time. The 200-week MA is currently at 67.10 and that is a line that has not been broken for the past 20 months. In addition, there is a double bottom on the intraweek chart at 68.07/67.71, which is the formation that caused the rally up to 123.13 to occur. Such a strong support level is unlikely to be broken, especially with the stock being in a strong oversold condition. If the bears fail to take the stock below last week's low, there is no resistance above until 81.87 is reached. Above 81.87 there is mostly open air up to the $90 level. The stock has given a clear signal that a trend change has occurred, given that the stock has fallen more than 20% in value. Nonetheless, a rally up to that 20%-drop level would suggest a rally up to 95.67 (based on a weekly close) can occur and still keep the stock in a sideways or even bear trend mode. It is probable that either a correction low has been found or that the stock is within a few points of such a bottom, meaning that this week could offer a decent opportunity to buy additional shares. The 67.71 level is now pivotal support. IDCC generated a new 25-intraweek low but the bulls managed to rally the stock enough to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 68.80 than below last week's low at 64.94. The bulls were also able to keep the stock closing above the weekly close support at 66.95, having closed on Friday at 67.03. The 200-week MA at 65.75 was broken on an intraweek basis but the break was not confirmed when the stock closed above the line. The stock has been trading sideways between 73.40 and 66.90 (based on weekly closes) for the past 5 months and there seems to be no reason at this time where that pattern will be broken until the earnings report comes out on February 17th, especially now when it seems that the indexes might rally for the next couple of week. Evidently, a drop below 64.94 would now be a negative of consequence. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at 67.94, which if broken would suggest that a rally up near the 70.84 level will occur. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. NEM failed to confirm the previous week's breakout, having stayed below the previous week's high and then going below the previous week's low and closing red, as well as closing near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 58.94 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, other than the failure to follow signal given, no support levels of consequence were broken, meaning the probabilities favor the stock trading in a sideways fashion for now. There is intraweek support at 58.29, at 57.87 and at 56.55, with one or all of those levels likely to be seen this week. Any drop below 56.15 would be a cause for concern. The 200-day MA is currently at 60.84 and there is short-term pivotal resistance at 62.18. If both of those levels get broken, the bulls will be back with the edge. The probabilities favor the bears early in the week but some recovery could be seen by the end of the week. Chart suggests that the stock will be trading between 56.15 and 63.45 for the next few weeks. SNDL made a new 25-month intraweek and weekly closing low but closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at .502 than below last week's low at .40. It does need to be mentioned that there was an open gap from November 2020 at .399 that has now effectively been closed. From that gap, the rally started that took the stock up to the 3.96 level. With the gap now closed, there is no magnet to the downside anymore, meaning that if the bulls step up, the stock is likely to rally. Another important thing to note is that the bears were unable to break the weekly close support at .423 even though the stock traded below that level on 3 of the last 5 days. This does suggest that there is a decent possibility that some form of recovery has started. There is some decent and pivotal weekly close support at .471 that if broken would give the bulls a bit of ammunition. Nonetheless, the bulls need to generate a daily close above .56 in order to stop the selling interest. Pivotal weekly close resistance is found at .67. SRUTF remained in the same trading range (between .02 and .035) that it has been in for the past 2 months. A break of either will generate further and new movement in that direction. ZLAB generated a new 25-month intraweek low and a new 22-month weekly closing low. Once again, the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the weeks trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 39.75 than going above last week's high at 50.02. Nonetheless and on a small positive note, the minor weekly close support at 43.06 held up as the stock closed on Friday at 43.42. If a green weekly close occurs this Friday, the chart shows no weekly close resistance above until the 60.53 level is reached. The stock reports earnings on February 8th and all rating companies have the stock as a "strong" buy. At this stage of the game and with the huge drop in price that has been seen, this stock at these prices is a buy and hold scenario.
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1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .453. 2) DDD - Purchased at 18.71. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 16.56. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0254. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .041. 5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 125.95 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 43.42. 6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.94. 7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 59.86. 8) ENG - Averaged long at 4.0325 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .886. 9) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. Stop loss at 33.65. Stock closed on Friday at 39.43. 10) IDCC - Averaged long at 69.475 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 64.84. Stock closed on Friday at 67.03. 11) FSLR - Purchased at 81.98. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 73.42. 12) QQQ - Liquidated at 352.20. Purchased at 357.62. Loss on the trade of $542 per 100 shares. 13) QQQ - Purchased at 335.12. Liquidated at 353.58. Profit on the trade of $1876 per 100 shares. 14) FSLR - Purchased at 75.18. Liquidated at 76.27. Profit on the trade of $109 per 100 shares. 15) RBLX - Purchased at 65.69. Liquidated at 66.48. Profit on the trade of $79 per 100 shares. 16) RBLX - Purchased at 62.37. Liquidated at 59.65. Loss on the trade of $272 per 100 shares.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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