Issue #748
Jan 16, 2021
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Indexes Fail to Rally as the Seasonal Tendency to Rally in January Suggests they Would! Door Open for the Bears.

DOW Friday closing price - 35911
SPX Friday closing price - 4662
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 15611
RUT Friday closing price - 2162

The indexes all confirmed the negative signals given the previous week, either with further red weekly closes on in the case of the NASDAQ (with the slight green close) still being below the previous all-time weekly closing high at 15652. As such, the bears remained with the edge they obtained the previous week. The inflation report (CPI) came in slightly higher than expected but it wasn't a factor given that the initial reaction to the report was to the upside. On Friday, the earnings quarter began and 3 financial companies reported (C, JPM, and WFC) and the results were mixed. Both JPM and WFC reported better than expected earnings and C reported less than expected earnings. WFC generated a new 41-month high, C closed slightly higher than the previous week and JPM had a negative reversal week of consequence. As such and with the mixed results of those reports, the traders once again showed the uncertain nature of the future. Simply stated, nothing was resolved this past week other than the fact that the bears now have a slight edge.

This coming week will be all about earnings and then mostly in the SPX with GS, MS, and BAC report on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. In the DOW, there will be P&G and TRV on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning and in the NASDAQ, NFLX reports Thursday afternoon. It is unlikely that any of these earnings reports will be pivotal or game changing in any way. There are no economic reports of consequence due out this week.

With the exception of the DOW, all the other indexes closed around the middle of the week's trading range, meaning that neither side has a clear edge for this coming week. As such, the chart suggests that nothing of consequence will occur this week, especially considering there are no possibly-catalytic economic or earnings reports scheduled. By the same token, if something does happen it is likely to be to the downside as the bears have the edge. Otherwise and using the daily charts, it is suggestive that there might be a bit more green than red this week and that the bias is likely to be minimally in favor of the bulls for this week.

Chart-wise, the levels of support and resistance are clearly defined and should be known just in case one or the other is broken. In the DOW, those levels are at 36564 and 34000, in the SPX the levels are at 4743 and 4600 and in the NASDAQ they are at 16607 and 14384. It is highly unlikely that any of those levels will be broken or even seen this week. What is likely to be in play are the following resistance levels that should be seen at some point during the week, but not broken. In the DOW that level is 36313, in the SPX that level is at 4718, and in the NASDAQ that level is at 16224. Using these upside objectives, the DOW has the upside potential for a 400 point rally, the SPX for a 50 point rally and the NASDAQ The indexes have shown a seasonal tendency to rally in January and fall in February. So far, the January rally has not occurred. Nonetheless and given there are no catalytic reports scheduled for this week, it is "likely" the traders will key on the upside and not push the downside, at least not after all the big economic reports come out and that will not happen until the first week of February.

The outlook for this week has a relatively high probability of happening but then again, the uncertainty surrounding the market right now is so high that traders are likely to overly react to any positive or negative news even if not catalytic. Simply stated, trading will remain difficult.

Overall and looking at what is presently expected to happen over the next few months, March is likely to be the month that things will likely be settled enough for traders to have some form of direction that is somewhat dependable. The Fed is expected to begin raising interest rates in March and at this moment, that is the biggest catalyst event for the market.


GOLD generated no follow through to the downside after closing on the low of the week the previous week and ended up having an inside week but a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $1829 will be seen this week. Gold spent the last 3 days of the week trading up to (or very near) the daily and weekly close breakout area at $1828 (got up to at least $1827 on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday) and the bulls failed to break through. By the same token, the worst pullback from the failures was Thursday's drop to $1811 and in the end, it closed at $1817, suggesting further attempts (and a likely breakthrough of the resistance area) will occur either next week or the week thereafter. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at $1837 and short-term intraweek support is found at $1811. Probabilities favor the bulls.

OIL generated a new 6+-year weekly closing high, having closed on Friday above 83.76 (closed at 83.82). Oil closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 84.45 is expected to be seen this week. This 7-week rally from 62.43 to 84.45 is a 26.1% rally that erases all the weakness seen over the past 12 weeks. There is still intraweek resistance at 85.43 and further (but old) resistance up between $86 and $87 that is going to be difficult to break without some new fundamental positive news. That resistance is what stopped the previous rally and remains a resistance of note. On a weekly closing basis, the resistance is at 86.15. Nonetheless, this new high does totally erase the recent weakness and does make the $63 level into a strong support that is not likely to be broken this year without some negative scenario occurring. In fact, the chart suggests that for the next 3-6 months, it is highly unlikely that the $73-$75 level will be broken on a weekly closing basis. This coming week, oil should continue higher but on a limited basis due to the lack of catalytic reports or events scheduled. Possible trading range for the week will be the $79/$80 level to the downside and the $86/$87 level to the upside with $80-$86 (or even less) being the most probable.

DOLLAR bulls dodged a potential bullet as the Dollar dropped 1.7% in value (from high to low of the week) and got down to the pivotal weekly close support level at 94.64 with a low this past week at 94.63. Nonetheless and on Friday, the Dollar was able to rally from that same low to close at 95.15 and in so doing, avoid any new negative close that would automatically bring in new selling interest. Nonetheless, the Dollar did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside (on an intraweek basis) below 94.64 will occur. That is not a problem if it happens as the support is on a weekly closing basis only. By the same token, the Dollar did make a new 10-week weekly closing low that does mean that for now the rally is over. New and positive fundamental news is needed to regenerate the uptrend. This suggests that the Dollar is likely to trade sideways until March when the Fed is due to start raising interest rates. As such, the probabilities favor a $95 to $96 trading range (based on weekly closes) during the next 7-8 weeks. Any daily close below 94.79 will weaken the chart and any daily close above 95.92 will strengthen the chart.

BITCOIN is in the process of generating a positive reversal week, having made a new 16-week intraweek low and is presently trading green and near the high of the week, suggesting a green close will be seen tomorrow night (weekly close). Bitcoin is near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 44,426 will be seen this week. Bitcoin did get down to 39,677 and did reach the pivotal support found at 39,678 and then reversed direction. This does suggest that this correction might be over. Then again, Bitcoin bulls need to generate a daily close above 46,192 in order to confirm that a bottom to the correction has been found. It that does occur, it is likely that Bitcoin will then get into a short-term trading range between 45,530 and 50,800 (based on intraweek levels) for the next few weeks. Any break below last week's low at 39,677 will likely cause a drop down to the 35,000 area and a further weakening of the chart. Any rally above 52,027 will likely generate further buying with the 58,000 level as the objective. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

This coming week offers few opportunities to trade. The bulls are not likely to find enough support to overall take stocks higher and the bears are also unlikely to find enough selling to take stocks lower to where short positions can offer risk/reward ratios that are doable. I am leaving in the mention to purchase QQQ but it is highly unlikely the desired entry point will be reached this week. That particular buy mention will stay in effect until it is either reached or the February seasonal tendency to correct is over. I am also giving one new mention on a stock in an industry that overall provided a 106% return on investment in 2021 (3 times more than the rest of the market) and an industry that is expected to be just as strong in 2022 no matter what the overall market does. In addition, there are a couple of held stocks (CALM, BTZI, and NEM) that could generate a breakout of consequence on their own (without the help of the indexes). If that occurs, I will put up the mention then in the message board and on an email.

PURCHASES

DDD Friday closing price - 19.88

DDD is the #1 company in the 3D systems industry. The stock appreciated over 500% in value in the first 6 weeks of 2021 and now finds itself having given back 67% of its value back since then. Nonetheless, over the past 8 weeks the downtrend has slowed down substantially, having reached a low 20.72 in the last week of November and having closed on Friday at 19.88, meaning that the stock has only lost 4.1% in value over the past 8 weeks. The stock made a new 8-month intraweek low last week but then turned around (reversed) to generate a green close and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 20.88 will be seen this week. What makes this reversal even more important is that the previous week's close was at 19.83 and that now becomes a successful retest of the 19.21 low weekly close for the year, which occurred in May.

DDD also fulfilled a downside objective this past week, having closed an open gap between 18.99 and 19.20 that was created in May. That gap became a magnet when the $20 level was reached 6 weeks ago and now that gap has been closed with last week's low at 18.81. Simply stated, the selling interest has waned over the past 2 months and the downside objective was fulfilled this past week, as such, the bulls can now confidently begin to purchase, having a clearly defined intraweek support level at 17.47 (May 2021 low) and having fulfilled the downside objectives and now generated a positive reversal week.

To the upside, DDD shows that all close by intraweek resistance levels are minor (at 20.86, at 22.52 and at 24.15). The 24.15 level is slightly above minor as it is a short-term pivot point but it is definitely minor on the weekly chart, whereas the others only exist on the daily chart. Nonetheless, on that same weekly chart, above 24.15 there is open air up to the $30 level and even the resistance in that area is from a downtrend line and not from any previously established resistance. Previously established intraweek resistance is found between $33 and $35 and that will be the objective of this trade.

DDD is an established company (#1 in its industry) and in an industry that overall was the best industry in 2021. The chart has shown clear support around the $20 level and has pivotal support at 17.47. The upside objective is reachable within the context of the chart itself but overall, this company did appreciate 500% in 2021 and if that happens this year, it would suggest the stock could make new highs and even perhaps shoot for the $100 level. LOast but not least, DDD is considered a Beta stock, meaning high movement and volatility, which suggests that the objective could be reached in short order.

Purchases of DDD around Friday's closing price at 19.88 and down to 19.68 and using a 17.37 stop loss and having a 33.00 objective offers a 5-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is 3.75-1 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

QQQ Friday closing price - 380.06

QQQ generated positive reversal week, having generated a new 13-week intraweek low but then closing green. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chances of going above last week's high at 390.20 as going below last week's low at 369.31. Nonetheless and in spite of the positive reversal, the stock still closed below the previous all-time weekly closing high at 381.57, meaning that the bulls were not able to accomplish anything tangible. It is unlikely that the stock will get down to the desired entry point this week as this is a week with no important economic or earnings reports that will give either side enough ammunition to generate any kind of a potential upside or downside objective. This means that this mention is not likely to be fulfilled this week. By the same token and with the seasonal tendency of the indexes to drop in February, this mention will be in place until such a time that the desired entry point is reached or the action to the upside is enough to negate the possibility of a drop to that level occurring. QQQ show a open gap down to 360.69 that is now a potential magnet given the break that occurred the previous week. In addition, the 200-day MA is currently at 363.36 and that is also now a magnet to the downside that is likely to be reached unless there are positive fundamental changes. To the upside, pivotal resistance is found at 404.58 that if broken, would negate the possibility of a drop to the desired entry point.

To the upside, QQQ, has copious resistance at the $400 level that is likely to be reached at some point over the next few months, if and when the $350 level is not broken. Reaching that level would not mean the uptrend has resumed. It would be seen as a 2nd retest of the all-time high at 408.71. The possibilities do exist that if the $350 level is not broken that the 13-year uptrend could resume, meaning that the potential profit of this purchase (if the desired entry point is reached) could be higher than the stated objective of the trade.

As such, purchases of QQQ around the 360.69 area and using a stop loss at 350.22 and having an upside objective of $400, will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 8-week low and then going above the previous week's high and closing green. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 20.87 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and in spite of the positive week, the stock remains in a sideways trading range at this time. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 21.12 that if broken, would suggest a rally up to at least 21.80 would occur. A break above 22.47 would be a bullish statement on a midterm basis what would suggest the 23.85-24.00 would be tested. Pivotal support remains at 17.92, which if broken would damage the chart and put the bears in control. The overall outlook of the chart leans decidedly for the bulls, at least for a rally to the $24 level.

BTZI technically generated a breakout, having closed by $.005 cents above the weekly close resistance at .054 (closed at .0545). Unfortunately, such a small break above the resistance level is not dependable. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at .06 is expected to be seen this week. With Bitcoin also generating a signal that a low to the correction might have been found, it does give the bulls in the stock the edge. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at .08 but any daily close above .0585 would suggest a rally up to the .08 level would likely occur. Short-term pivotal support is found at .0387 and midterm pivotal support is found at .03. Overall, the chart is leaning in favor of the bulls for the time being.

CALM has generated a 15.5% rally over the past 4 weeks and finds itself at a crux point at 41.36, which is where the 200-week MA is currently at. The stock closed just below the line (closed at 41.13) but did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 41.44 will occur this week. The stock has been below the MA for the past 5 months and a close above that line would be a statement, which would be confirmed if the bulls are able to get above the previous intraweek high at 43.24. A break of that level would give control back to the bulls, It is interesting to note that the 100-month MA, is currently at 41.42 and there is a 7-year downtrend on the monthly chart as well at 41.51, suggesting that this level is long-term pivotal. In addition and on the monthly chart, there is a bullish inverted Head & Shoulders formation with the left shoulder at 33.42, the head at 30.74, and the right shoulder at 33.85. A break of the neckline, which is where all of these lines are at, would offer a 56.41 objective. With the end of the month only 2-weeks+1-day away, it is very clear that the stock is at a pivotal point of consequence. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at 39.02, which if broken would take away quite a bit of ammunition away from the bulls. Overall, the chart is leaning in favor of the bulls and given the clear parameters of the chart, this is a stock to be closely monitored and one to add positions if the breakout occurs.

CHUY generated another negative week and a close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 27.38 will be seen this week. This move down is either going to be continuation of the downtrend in a clearer and more dependable manner or be a successful retest of the recent low at 26.42, as well as a second successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 26.51. Either way, this week is looking to be important for the longer term. Pivotal intraweek resistance is now found at 32.15, which if broken would give the bulls a decided mid-term edge. The stock reports earnings on February 3 and that suggests that for the next 3 weeks the stock is likely to do some backing and filling, if and when the intraweek support at 26.42 is not broken. The overall chart is leaning slightly toward the bears but the monthly chart definitely shows that this month is pivotal to the long term. A break below 26.42 would suggest a drop down to the $18 level will occur, while a close at the end of the month above 28.66 would suggest a rally up to at least 37.50, if not up to $43 would be seen.

ENG continued to show weakness with the bulls not able to do much of anything. The stock made another new 26-month low and a close near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.07 will be seen this week, The stock has now closed below the pivotal 1.29 weekly close support level for 2 weeks and showing no buying interest being found. The 1.29 level is even more important on the monthly chart, meaning that the bulls do have another 2 weeks+1-day to recover and prevent a serious break of support from occurring. For now, there is no support below other than the strong psychological support at 1.00. On an intraweek basis, short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.30. Overall, the chart is leaning toward the bears. Company reports earnings on February 3.

FSLR generated a new 6-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 80.84 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to prevent the stock from generating a new sell signal on the weekly chart, having closed at 83.02 and weekly close support being at 82.95. On the other side of the coin, the support at $80 (on the weekly closing chart) is more important and meaningful than the support at 82.95, which suggests that the bulls are not in such a dire situation where decisions need to be made at this time. Short term intraweek resistance is found at 86.50, which if broken would suggest the correction is over. Any intraweek break below 78.93 would give the bulls additional strength. Overall, the stock seems to be in the process of establishing a new support base from which a recovery rally can occur.

IDCC generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low but then closing green. Unfortunately for the bulls, the green close was in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 68.25 than going above last week's high at 71.89. Overall though, none of these levels represents anything pivotal, meaning that for now the stock is trading sideways with no clear direction. The 200-day MA, currently at 70.98, is the short-term pivotal level to watch. The stock has traded below the line for the past 7 days and as such, the bears have the short-term edge. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 67.43 and resistance at 72.88. It is likely this trading range will be in effect until the earnings report comes out on February 17th.

NEM bulls remained with the slight edge given that there was no follow through to the downside last week as was expected to happen. The stock generated a green weekly close and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 61.87 will be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 62.18, which if broken would suggest that a rally perhaps as high as $70 would be seen over the next 2-3 months. The previous week's intraweek low at 57.87 is now short-term pivotal support, which if broken would give the short-to-midterm edge back to the bears. Overall, the chart is leaning decently in favor of the bulls, given that the stock has now stayed above a previous weekly close resistance level at 59.67 for 3 weeks and that level was tested successfully with the close 2 weeks ago at 59.43, followed with the green close on Friday.

RBLX generated a new 10-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 77.42 will be seen this week. This close was a decent negative to the chart and the stock closed below the weekly close breakout point at 84.02, meaning that yet another failure signal has been given that could be strongly indicative in favor of the bears. There is pivotal intraweek support at 76.83 that if broken would likely "seal the fate" of the bulls for generating a recovery rally of any consequence to occur. As such, the bulls need to do "something" this week. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 90.31 that is unlikely to be seen (much less broken) this week. As such, the bulls have to shoot for a weekly close above 84.02 next Friday to give them a chance for a recovery rally to begin. On the daily closing chart, that same level is important, meaning that is what the bulls need to accomplish this week.

SNDL bulls failed to generate any movement to the upside, having traded this past week in a very narrow trading range of .05 cents. In the end, nothing was accomplished as the stock closed exactly at the support level at .0564. Any daily close below .56 would generate new selling interest. Any daily close above .67 would generate new buying interest. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

SRUTF failed to generate follow through to the upside and failed to confirm the failure signal against the bears given the previous week. As such, the stock remains in "limbo", given that it has now traded for the past 7 weeks between a low of .0204 and a high of .0342. Nonetheless and in looking at the daily chart, a failure signal against the bears was given the previous week but that came from a rally from the all-time low at .0204 that has not yet been tested successfully. As such, the action this past week , which was mostly to the downside, could be the required/needed retest of that low. Some intraweek support is found at .0243 that should be seen but should also hold, if and when this is going to be the retest that is needed. A break above .034 at this time would mean that a bottom has been found.

ZLAB made a new 22-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 48.15 will be seen this week. There is pivotal weekly close support at 48.15 that if broken would give the bears additional ammunition. On a daily closing basis, there is quite a bit of support between 44.54 and 51.68 that at this time should hold up. The weakness seen recently underscores the control that the bears presently have and that does not look like it could change until the earnings report comes out on February 8th. Intraweek resistance is found at 60.77 which if broken would suggest the correction is over. By the same token, any daily close above 54.04 would be a small positive to the bulls. The overall chart continues to be tilted in favor of the bears.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .564.

2) CHUY - Averaged long at 30.75. No Stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 27.76.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0258.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0545.

5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 125.95 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 49.79.

6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.04.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 61.22.

8) ENG - Averaged long at 4.0325 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.13.

9) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .01 on Friday.

10) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. Stop loss at 33.65. Stock closed on Friday at 41.13.

11) IDCC - Averaged long at 69.475 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 65.69. Stock closed on Friday at 69.64.

12) RBLX - Purchased at 79.74. Averaged long at 93.045 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 76.73 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 79.05.

13) FSLR - Purchased at 81.98. Stop loss now at 80.74. Stock closed on Friday at 83.02.

14) QQQ - Shorted at 381.45. Covered short at 382.88. Loss on the trade of $133 per 100 shares.

15) QQQ - Shorted at 389.29. Covered short at 381.14. Profit on the trade of $815 per 100 shares.

16) LNG - Shorted at 111.68. Covered short at 113.11. Loss on the trade of $143 per 100 shares.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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