Issue #744
Dec 12, 2021
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Omicron's Potential Damage Diffused. Market Recovers all Losses.

DOW Friday closing price - 35970
SPX Friday closing price - 4712
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 16331

RUT Friday closing price - 2211

The indexes generated a strong rally back up after news was released that the new Omicron variant of the virus is not likely to bring any additional or strong problems to the economy. The SPX rallied 3.8% from the previous week's lows to last week's highs and that is the biggest 1-week rally since July, and in the process made a new all-time daily and weekly closing high. All indexes closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high (DOW above 35982, SPX above 4713 and the NASDAQ above 16412) will be seen this week. . It is interesting to note that the dichotomy between the indexes was not evident this week given that they all rallied between 3.8% and 3.9%, suggesting that this is a true Xmas rally and not one favoring one industry over the other. On the other side of the coin, the RUT only rallied 2.7% and that is another clue that it was a rally that favored the "tried-and-true-established-stocks", and not favoring any change in overall change of mentality in the market. It was a "safe" rally.

The DOW and the NASDAQ failed to make new all-time highs and that tempers the bull excitement somewhat as it suggests that the rally was more of a recovery rally that a continuation-of-the-trend rally (a Xmas rally exclusively). As a Xmas rally, that does set the bar much higher for the bulls to accomplish much more in the rest of the month. As it is, December is usually a "calm" month that seasonally appreciates in value but in a limited way. The average December rally (above November's close) averages 2.3% and the DOW is already 4.3% above last months close, the SPX is 3.1% above last month's close and the NASDAQ is 1.2% above last month's close. This does suggest that for the next 3 weeks (until the end of the month) further appreciation (if any) will be limited.

As it is, all indexes are still below the all-time intraweek highs. The DOW is still 595 points below the all-time high at 36565, the SPX is still 31 points below its all-time high at 4743 and the NASDAQ is still 433 points below its all-time high at 16764. It is evident that the bulls will strongly attempt to make a statement and close out the year (across the board) on the highs of the month, so as to start the New Year by making yet another new all-time high for 2022. That may be a tall order to fulfill given that inflation continues at a high rate and the Fed continues to be Dovish in attacking it. The last Fed rate decision for the year is due to be announced this Wednesday and that is the report that is likely to decide whether the bulls accomplish new highs across the board or not. If there are no changes in the rate (or wording to the effect that new tightening is being considered), it is unlikely the bulls will be successful in making new all-time intraweek highs across the board. The probabilities do not favor the Fed making (or announcing) any changes given that the inflation figure that came out last week was not unexpected and not likely to generate any new action that has not already been announced.

As such, this coming week is likely to be the last week of the year where any movement of consequence might be seen and even then, nothing is likely to happen until after Wednesday's Fed announcement.

As I always do, let me give you the levels below that would give the bears an edge and change everything that was accomplished this past week. First of all, let me say that "any" red weekly close from here on in before making new weekly closing highs would be seen as a negative. In the DOW the all-time weekly closing high is 36327 and last week's close was 35970. In the NASDAQ, the all-time high weekly close is 16573 and last week's close was at 16331. As such, the bulls need more green this week (no red) for the weekly close next Friday. In the case of the SPX, the bulls have to make sure that if there is any red weekly close, that it is above 4697. That is the previous all-time high weekly close and a close below that would generate a failure signal.

On a shorter term and using the daily closing chart, these are the levels of support that if broken would tilt the chart to the downside. In the DOW that level is at 35490, in the NASDAQ that level is at 15985, and in the SPX that 4646. Nonetheless, in the case of the SPX, two daily closes in a row below 4704 would weaken the chart and give a slight edge to the bears.

Overall and looking at what is left for the month of economic reports and this being a holiday month that is seasonally tilted toward the bulls, the probabilities favor the bulls with the only real question is whether the bulls will be able to make new all-time highs across the board or not.


GOLD generated an inside week where nothing was resolved one way or the other. The trading range was 50% of what it was the previous week and the weekly close was only $1 above the previous week's close. Simply stated, it was a totally uneventful week. On a positive note though, the bears did have short-term control the previous week and based on the action seen last week, that edge has now disappeared. The inflation report on Friday was about as expected and did not generate movement. Then again, inflation is now at a rate of 6.8% and exactly 1 year ago it was 1.4% and yet Gold was trading then $1859 (now at $1784), meaning that Gold is more supported by inflation now than then. Gold closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at $1794 in expected to be seen this week. If that occurs, a run up to the resistance at $1837 is likely to be seen. The low seen the previous week at $1762 has now been tested successfully and there seems to be no reason for weakness to be seen this coming week. Probabilities favor the bulls.

OIL did not follow through to the downside last week (as expected) and did go above last week's high, suggesting the previous week's low at 62.43 is now strong pivotal support. Oil closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 73.32 is expected to be seen this week. Using the weekly chart, there are two potential upside objectives with the first one being 74.23 and the second one being 76.90. Support is now found at 65.21. Using the daily charts and considering that this is December (a calm month), probabilities favor Oil trading between 69.67 and 74.23 for the next 3 weeks.

DOLLAR generated an uneventful inside week but did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 95.85 will be seen this week. On the weekly closing chart, the Dollar generated a red weekly close but it was only by $.03, meaning it was not meaningful. The Dollar has now closed at 96.03, 96.09 and 96.06 the past 3 weeks. A sign there is no direction right now. Intraweek support is found at 95.52, which if broken would suggest a drop down to 94.64 would occur. To the upside, pivotal resistance is found at 96.59. The Dollar now has 2 successful retests of the multi-month high at 96.98 and that suggests the bears now has a slight edge for the rest of the month.

BITCOIN, like with Gold and the Dollar, generated an uneventful inside week. The weekly chart suggests that the correction is over but the daily charts still slightly favor the bears with a potential downside target of 46832 (based on a daily closing basis). To the upside an on the daily closing chart as well, resistance will be found at 52676. Probabilities are high that for the rest of the month, that trading range will be in effect.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no mentions on this week's newsletter and won't likely have one the rest of the year given that after this week's Fed rate announcement, traders are likely to take the rest of the month off. By nature, December is a very slow month. This does not necessarily mean that if something unexpected happens and a buying (or selling) opportunity arises that I will miss it or not mention it. I do plan to be watching the market every trading day for the rest of the year. Nonetheless, as of right now, I do not believe there will likely be any trades that will offer any kind of meaningful profit for the next few weeks. This was somewhat proven with this week's chart evaluations of held stocks. All held stocks suggest that very little is going to happen the rest of the year. Day and overnight trades remain a possibility.

Then again and not something I can evaluate at this writing, this market is open right now for fear, greed, rumor and even manipulation to occur and if there is one month where any of those will have more impact than any other month, it is December. I will keep my eyes open for that.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU generated a new 4-week low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 19.04 will be seen this week. The stock broke the 200-day MA on Thursday (currently at 19.77) and confirmed the break on Friday, suggesting the recent rally has ended and a sideways trend for the rest of the year is to be seen. There is very decent (to perhaps strong) intraweek support between 17.92 and 18.04 that is further strengthened by the 200-week MA, currently at 17.90. Probabilities of reaching that level are high but very low that it will be broken. The recent high made last week at 22.47 is now likely to be resistance for the rest of the year. That high has not yet been tested but likely will be before the end of the year. A rally back up to 21.80 is probable. As such, at 17.90 to 21.80 trading range for the next 3 weeks is what is expected.

BTZI bulls failed to follow through to the upside after the previous week's strong spike up week. The stock generated an inside week with a red weekly close and a close at what is established weekly close support at .039. The stock did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .039 will be seen this week. If that does happen and the bulls are able to generate a green weekly close next Friday, two positives will be accomplished, inasmuch as a retest of the low seen 3 weeks ago will be accomplished, as well as a successful retest of the established weekly close support at .039. On an intraweek basis, support is found at .034 (.0382) on a daily closing basis. As such, it is important for the bulls to maintain this area of support and see mostly green all week. To the upside, there is some resistance at .06. Probabilities favor the stock trading the rest of the month between .04 and .06.

CALM saw no follow through to the previous week's close on the low of the week and generated a green weekly close and in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chance of going above last week's high at 36.66 than below last week's low at 35.82. The green weekly close does take away whatever ammunition the bears has been able to gather the previous week as the previous week's close 35.76 is now the second successful retest of the multi-year low weekly close at 34.62 seen in August. This does give the bulls "some" new ammunition with which to make some strides to the upside over the next few weeks. Weekly close resistance is decent but pivotal between 36.91 and 37.13. A break of that level would open the door for a rally up to the $41.50 area. It is unlikely that area will be broken during the next 3 weeks but there is a higher chance of the bulls breaking resistance than the bears breaking support. The probabilities do favor the stock trading (on an intraweek basis) between 36.05 and 37.67 for the next 3 weeks.

CHUY generated an inside week and a green weekly close but did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 27.95 is more likely that a rally above last week's high at 30.34. The green weekly close at 28.67 was not high enough to generate a failure signal against the bears as the weekly close breakpoint for this recent drop is at 29.16. As such, the action this past week seems more to be a pause in the down action than rather than a recovery starting. On a positive note though, the stock did see a low at 26.88 the previous week and the 200-week MA is currently at 26.45. The lack of follow through and the green weekly close suggest that the line has been tested successfully and if that is proven to be the case, new buying is likely to be seen as soon as that is confirmed (another week or two of trading). Pivotal daily close resistance is now found at 29.91, which if broken would suggest the recovery has started. Any daily close below 27.23 would now be a new negative. Probabilities do favor the bulls building a new support base over the next 3 weeks and a trading range between 28.21 and 31.93 (based on daily closes) be seen during the rest of the year.

ENG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 55-week intraweek and weekly closing low and then closing green. Nonetheless, the green weekly close was only by $.02 cents and therefore not all that convincing. By the same token and "technically" it does suggest the 200-week MA has been tested successfully and that is likely to bring some new buying interest this week. The stock closed exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting equal chance of going above last week's high at 1.82 than going below last week's low at 1.49. Whichever of the two occurs, it will be indicative. Pivotal weekly close resistance is found at 1.80 (on a daily closing basis at 1.78). A confirmed close above that level would mean this recent mid-term downtrend is over. Probabilities favor the bulls this week and if a weekly close above 1.80 does occur, the stock could rally as high as 2.35 before the end of the year.

IDCC generated a green weekly close, meaning that the previous week's close at 67.53 is now the 2nd successful retest of the low weekly closing low seen in July at 64.21 and the 2nd successful retest of the 200-week MA (currently at 65.92). The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 66.65 will be seen this week. That would put the stock in a fragile situation as any intraweek drop below 65.79 would be seen as a negative. Nonetheless, the chart on a closing basis does show enough support that a breakdown is unlikely. If the bears fail to take the stock below last week's low, a rally back up to 72.88 is likely to be seen before the end of the year. Either way, it is unlikely that much will happen to the stock for the remainder of the year.

MRGE made a new 3-year weekly closing low at .03 (below the previous weekly closing low from February 2019 at .033). Nonetheless, the stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .0368 will be seen this week and if that occurs and a close above .033 occurs next Friday, it is likely the move down is over. Pivotal short-term daily close resistance is found at .06. It must be remembered that this is a fundamental play on whether an oil pipe line between Mexico and the U.S. is authorized (or not), meaning that the charts do not play any kind of a role in what the stock is going to do. Other than perhaps as an early sign of whether that deal is to occur or not.

NEM generated a green weekly close, meaning that the previous week's close at 54.67 is now the 2nd successful retest of the multi-year weekly closing low at 53.56 that occurred in September. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 56.77 will be seen this week. The stock is showing a bullish flag formation on the daily chart with the flagpole being the 4-day rally from 52.60 to 56.77 and the flag being the move down to Friday's low at 55.23. A break of the flag (above 56.77) will offer a 59.40 objective within 4 days of the breakout. There is no established resistance of consequence on the intraweek chart until 59.47 is reached. Nonetheless, from 59.47 and up to 60.80 (which is where the 200-day MA is located) there is enough resistance to suggest that it won't be broken this year. A drop below 55.23 will break up the flag and change the short-term outlook. As it stands right now, a 55.50 t0 59.40 is what is likely to be seen during the next 3 weeks.

SNDL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 10-mont intraweek close and then close green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .6396 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and in spite of the positive reversal, the bulls still have not negated the break of weekly close support that is at .643, suggesting this past week's rally was more short-covering than the beginning of a recovery phase. Any confirmed daily close above .6034 would suggest the down move has found a bottom. If that occurs, a rally back up to the .77 level would likely be seen before the end of the year. Any break of last week's low at .53 would further weaken the chart. Probabilities do favor the stock trading higher for the next few weeks and a trading range between .55 and .77 be seen.

SRUTF remains under control of the bears as the stock generated a negative reversal week after the previous weeks' green close. The bulls were able to keep the stock from making a new low weekly close, suggesting that there is "some" buying interest around the .028 level. Otherwise, there is no action being seen that suggests the stock is ready to mount a recovery rally. Any daily close above .035 would suggest the bottom has been found. Any daily close below .028 would suggest the bears remain in full control.

ZLAB generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 18-month intraweek close and then closing green. Unfortunately, the green weekly close was only by $.16 cents and the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting the bears remain in full control and that last week was simply a pause in the action. The bulls need to stay above last week's low at 60.57 and get above last week's high at 73.75 in order to make any kind of statement that the bottom of this downtrend has been found. One possible positive thing is that the stock gapped up on Monday between 65.65 and 65.98 and that gap was not supported with news, and therefore was a magnet for closure. The gap was closed on Friday and that could mean the stock might open higher on Monday and go up from there. Otherwise, the bears remain in full control as the bulls accomplished nothing of consequence this past week in spite of the $13 rally from the lows made earlier in the week. On the other side of the coin, this was the first time in many weeks that any kind of a rally of that amount has been seen. It does suggest that there is some buying interest at the $60 level.


1) SNDL - Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .585.

2) CHUY - Averaged long at 30.75. Stop loss now at 28.40. Stock closed on Friday at 28.67

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0294.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .039.

5) ZLAB - Averaged long at 125.7825 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 65.51.

6) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.15.

7) NEM - Averaged long at 60.137 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 56.10.

8) QTWO - Liquidated at 81.57, Averaged long at 78.325. Profit on the trade of $649 per 100 shares (2 mentions).

9) ENG - Averaged long at 4.0325 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.65.

10) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .03 on Friday.

11) CALM - Purchased at 34.99. Stop loss at 33.65. Stock closed on Friday at 36.20.

12) IDCC - Purchased at 67.19. Averaged long at 69.475 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 68.08.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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