Issue #729
Aug 15, 2021 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| Bulls Remain in Control but News and Momentum Showing Worrisome-to-the-bulls Pausing Occurring.
DOW Friday closing price - 35515
The indexes all made new intraweek and weekly closing highs but it was not of "note" given that it was as expected and limited. There was "one" catalytic report (CPI) midweek but it came out as expected and did not generate any movement in either direction. What is of "some" note is that the new highs were all less than 1% above the previous highs, meaning that the buying interest is waning. One negative thing that did occur was the Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment that not only came in lower (70.2 vs expected 80.6) but it was also the lowest seen since 2011. It is normally not an important report and is usually ignored (was ignored this time) but it does add to the idea that the traders are starting to lose their bullish feelings at this time and price.
This too fits in with the fact that on 6 out of the last 10 years, there has been a decent to perhaps strong dip/correction in September that sometimes (about 50% of the time) started in late August. On the other 4 years, a slight dip (or at best sideways action) occurred. Last year, the correction started the last week of August and it turned out to be at 10.7%. In 2019, the correction started the 2nd week of September and it was 6.5% correction. In 2018, it started the last week of August and it was a 28% correction and in 2017, it started the last week of August and the correction was only 3%. This seasonal tendency does suggest that the probabilities do not favor the indexes seeing much further upward action occurring for the next 2 weeks and that with this coming week being the middle of August, more pausing (and perhaps a small amount of selling) is to be seen.
Given that there is no resistance above, the only thing that the traders will be watching is whether weakness is seen and how much. The previous all-time high daily closes are the one thing that the traders will be watching for signs of a correction beginning. In the DOW that level is at 35,144, in the SPX that level is at 4422 and in the NASDAQ it is at 15,125. Given that this year previous all-time high daily closes have been broken over-and-over again with impunity, if failure signals are given the traders will turn their attention to daily closes where a sell signal will need to be generated in order to give added interest to the signals. In the case of the DOW, a daily close below 34792, in the SPX a daily close below 4387, and in the NASDAQ a daily close below 14959 would need to happen to give the bears any confidence of having started a possible correction. Simply stated, "two" negative signals now need to happen for it to mean anything. I mention this as information to store in your minds for the next 2-3 weeks. I certainly do not expect this to happen at this time but then again and based on the seasonal tendency to correct in September, the probabilities that something will happen (or start to happen) within the next few weeks is high.
For this week and as far as news is concerned, Retail Sales comes out on Tuesday and Housing Starts on Wednesday. Neither of these reports is expected to have "any" catalytic power. The Fed does report the minutes from the last rate decision meeting on Wednesday, but there too, the possibilities of any change or surprise coming out are minimal. As such, much of the same as last week is expected to be seen this week, with the only thing to consider is whether some initial selling in anticipation of the seasonal correction starts to be seen this week. The bulls do have the have the edge and there is nothing at this time that can be used to anticipate anything else other than further upside. Probabilities favor the bulls.
SILVER made a new 8+-month intraweek low but then rallied 2.1% ($1.48) to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 24.38 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and unlike Gold, Silver generated a red weekly close, meaning it is still running behind Gold when it comes to the interest in buying metals. Nonetheless and on a positive note, the 22.29 low seen this past week held above the 2 previous intraweek lows at 22.12 and at 22.06 seen last year and that suggests that the $22 level is a bottom to Silver prices. There is no resistance above until 25.88 is reached. Intraweek support is now found at 23.74 and at 22.87. Probabilities favor the bulls.
OIL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 12-week intraweek low and then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 69.61 will be seen this week. Over the past few months, Oil has now generated a much clearer chart picture on the daily closing chart and from which the traders can now trade with a measure of confidence. Support on the daily closing chart is found between 66.09 and 66.28. A break of that support will be a game changer. To the upside and also using the daily closing chart, resistance is found between 72.15 and 72.20. The resistance is not as pivotal as the support is but it is indicative. As such and until some new fundamental news comes out, the probabilities favor a $66.50 to $72.00 trading range for the next few weeks, if not a couple of months. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
DOLLAR generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high and then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 92.47 will be made this week. The action seen was short-term indicative as the bulls had everything going for them in order to make a bull statement and yet they failed. The red weekly close means that there is now 2 successful retests of the high weekly close resistance at 93.07 that has been in place for the past 4 months and which has been the high weekly close for the past 10 months. This means that the Dollar will need a fundamental positive to break through resistance and with no news due out for at least another 3 weeks, the bulls are likely unable to get it done. As such and for this period of time, the chart suggests the support levels below will be tested for strength. On a daily closing basis, support is found between 91.53 and 91.76. If that support is broken, it will be a bear statement for at least another $1 lower. Probabilities favor the bears this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The market in general is not expected to do much this week and therefore not a good week for doing anything other than perhaps short-term trades. I did find one stock that has a very clear short-term chart picture and is in an industry (Oil) that has the same chart outlook for this week, meaning that if the desired entry point is reached, a trade can be done with a fair degree of confidence. There is one pther stock that I am mentioning because it has been one of the "hot stocks" for the past few months and there are reasons for trading it this week (explained in the mention itself).
Otherwise and in looking at about another 50 charts this weekend, I could not find any other stocks that showed me any chart certainty of trading this week, in one direction or the other. By the same token, I did find several stocks that by the end of this week might either get to interesting entry points or prove that no further upside (or downside) is to be seen, meaning that next week I am likely to have more mentions.
ENB Friday Closing Price - 39.19
ENB is a multinational pipeline company headquartered in Canada. It focuses on the transportation of crude oil and natural gas, primarily in North America.
For the past 16 weeks, ENB has traded sideways between a high at 41.13 and a low of 37.34 with 90% of the trading been done between 40.42 and 37.84. The stock generated a negative reversal week, having gotten up to 40.32 and then reversing to close red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 38.86 is likely to be seen this week. This does suggest that a drop down to (or close to) the 37.84 level could be seen. With Oil due to move higher this week, it would suggest that a purchase in that area would offer a move back up to the $40 demilitarized zone over the next week or two.
The recent low in ENB at 37.34 is a spike low and with the stock in a midterm uptrend (has moved up from 27.96 to 43.13 over the past 10 months), the probabilities of a breakout occurring are higher than of a breakdown occurring. As it is and using a stop loss at 37.24 and having a 40.30 objective and purchasing the stock around 37.84, the risk/reward ratio is 3.9-1 in trading the sideways range. If a breakout does occur (unlikely but more possible than a breakdown), the risk/reward ratio would increase in favor of doing the trade. A breakout out of this range is not a major situation as the all-time high is at 57.19 and last year's high was 43.15. As such, a mini breakout (which is definitely viable) would offer at least a $42 objective, which in turn would make the risk/reward ratio be 7-1.
The probability rating on this trade (if the desired entry level is reached) is 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
AMC Friday Closing Price - 33.39
AMC has been one of those "hot stocks" that were in vogue a few months ago due to price manipulation and lots of interest from opportunity traders. The stock went from 1.91 to 72.62 in a matter of 22 weeks. The fundamental picture did not support such a rally and the stock proceeded to get back down to 28.91, a level that was reached 2 weeks ago. Nonetheless, this past week, the company reported better than expected earnings and also signed a new deal with Warner Bros., as well as announced they were going to start accepting Bitcoin, and suddenly the selling stopped as new positive fundamentals have been added that gives the stock what seems to be a fair value at this price.
In addition and using the charts, AMC generated a failure signal against the bears 2 weeks ago that was negated (not confirmed) on Friday, meaning that the bulls seem to have regained their edge. As such and with a much clearer chart picture where support has now been establishe, the stock once again becomes tradeable (without fake manipulation) as any other stock can be. The fact the stock has been a "hot stock" also adds positives to this trade.
AMC closed on Friday at 33.47 and the previous all-time high weekly close that was broken on the rally to $72 was at 33.35, suggesting that the bears have lost their edge given that the previous week's close at 32.70 was not confirmed this past Friday. Over the previous 9 trading days the bears had been in control given that recently (on July 14th), the stock had closed at 33.43 and that was followed by a 13 day rally, which was then negated when the break of that support (and the previous all-time high daily close support at 33.35) occurred on August 4th. That breakdown has now been negated, suggesting that the bears are no longer in control.
Over the past 9 trading days, AMC has built support and tested it successfully, meaning that it now can be traded with clear levels of support and resistance built. To the upside and using the weekly chart, there is absolutely no established resistance until the 64.96 level is reached. During the past 9 weeks, every high of every week has been lower than the previous week and on 7 of those weeks, the lows made have been lower than the previous week. With the good news that came out last week, it does suggest that pattern might change this week and that resistance above is not found on the weekly chart.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, AMC now shows 3 support levels at 31.15. at 29.40 and at 28.91. With the stock closing on Friday at 33.39, the risk factor if all 3 levels are broken, is only $4.48 per share. With $65 a potential upside target and offering a profit of $31+ profit, the risk/reward ratio is potentially 6-1. This is not to say that this profit potential is what is likely to be had but the chart does show that due to the new and positive news, the built support level below, the failure signal against the bears given, and the lack of resistance above, this is a trade that can be considered at this time, especially since this stock has been a "hot stock" and that is difficult to find anywhere else.
The 200-day MA is currently at 32.78 and that will be the desired entry point. Stop loss will be at 29.25 and viable upside objective is 43.09. This means a risk of $353 to pick up $1031 per 100 shares. It is a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest.
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Updates
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| Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
| AU generated another red weekly close and a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 15.28 than above last week's high at 16.72. Nonetheless and with Gold expected to go higher, the selling interest is likely to be low at these levels. As it is, the stock only closed $.32 cents below the previous week's close, suggesting that the bears are easing their selling interest. The downside objective remains a retest of the major low 12.66, which is also the objective based on the inverted flag formation that was broken. The stock did confirm the break of the 200-week MA, currently at 17.23, that had been unbroken to the downside on a weekly closing basis for almost 3 years. As such and with Gold likely to rally this week, a retest of that line is likely to occur either this week or the next. Unfortunately for the bulls, chart damage occurred that is not likely to be reversed unless Gold rallies indicatively so or some new positive news about the company comes out. This means that on a rally back up to the line, cutting losses should be considered. On an intraweek basis, it is possible the stock could rally as high as 18.18 but it is not necessarily likely that it will. I do believe the probabilities favor the bulls "this week" though some weakness could be seen early in the week. BTZI generated an uneventful inside week with a close slightly above the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at .073 than below last week's low at .0521. Nonetheless, the stock now shows a double low at .0516/.0521 that will give the bulls some additional support. On a possible positive note, Bitcoin closed above a weekly close resistance level at 46,217, having closed on Friday at 46,792 and if that is confirmed next Friday, it will give the bulls in BTZI additional ammunition with which to break the pivotal intraweek and weekly close resistance at .077/.08. If that does happen, the .10 and even the .12 level are likely to be reached. A rally up to the .077 level is likely to be seen this week. CNX made a new 7-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's low at 11.48 will be seen this week. This coming week is very pivotal to the long term chart as the 200-week MA is currently at 11.62 and if another red close occurs next Friday, the break of the line will be confirmed (closed at 11.48 on Friday). The fact that Gold and commodities in general bounced up this past week, does give the bulls the edge from here on out. In addition and other than the lower than expected earnings report a few weeks ago, all fundamentals point to higher prices. As such, there is a strong probability of a positive turnaround this week. There is no intraweek support until 10.78 and even that is minor to perhaps decent, meaning that if the stock is to have a turnaround positive week, it needs to do it from the first day of the week. A drop down to 10.78 with no news scheduled will make it extremely difficult for the bulls to generate a positive week. Short-term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 12.18. If that level is broken, a rally up to the 200-day MA, currently at 12.70 is likely to be seen. I do believe the probabilities favor the bulls this week. CRON made a new 9-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 6.41 will be seen this week. There has been no new news on the company but the Cannabis industry is showing weakness across the board, which is not expected to fundamentally change until next year (2022). The long-term outlook though, suggests the industry will triple in value over the next 4 years. The next level of intraweek support is found at 6.04 and that level is likely to be reached this week but also likely to hold up as it is minor to decent support and with no specific negative news to the company, likely to hold up. If that is the case, a trading range for the rest of the year between $6 and $9 is what the chart suggests will happen. A break below $6 would likely mean a drop down to the $5 level would occur over the next few weeks. On a daily closing basis, resistance is now found between 6.94 and 7.11. A daily close above that level would suggest the worst is over. Probabilities favor the bears this week but it would not be surprising if a positive turnaround happens at the end of the week. DCTH reported lower than expected earnings and generated a 10.7% drop in price from the previous week's close. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 9.15 is expected to be seen. A short-term sell signal was given on the daily closing chart. Nonetheless, neither of the previous intraweek lows at 8.78 and at 8.80 were broken. As such and if those lows are not reached this week, this move down will be seen as a retest of that double low. By the same token and if reached and broken, it will be an additional negative that will require positive fundamental news to negate. One of the reasons for the weakness seen is that one of the clinical trial results that was scheduled for a September release has now been scheduled for October and that brought some new short-term selling interest. This means that if these support levels are broken, the bulls will need that report to be positive but in the meantime the bears will be in control. Given that the chart is very clear and that the bears remain in control at this time, consideration should be given to liquidation if the stock breaks the 8.70 level. Probabilities favor the bears but it could be a positive turnaround week if the support level is not broken. ENG made a new 9-month intraweek, daily close and weekly close low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.96 is expected to be seen this week. There is a runaway gap from December of last year at 1.75 that the bears will target for closure. If closed, the chart will be weakened as the breakaway gap down at 1.11 will be targeted. If not closed and a positive reversal occurs, new buying interest will be seen. That is the main objective for the week (closure of gap or positive reversal). Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 2.62. Probabilities favor the bears. MRGE had an uneventful inside week but did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .16 is expected to be seen this week. Pivotal resistance on all charts (intraweek, daily close and weekly close) is now found at .176. Closes above that level will bring in new buying interest. Pivotal support is found at .11. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. NEM generated a new 23-week intraweek and weekly close low but then closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week at 59.90 than below last week's low at 57.96. The open gap on the weekly chart at 59.02 was closed, meaning that downside magnet is now gone. Due to the weakness seen in Gold recently, that magnet had no fundamental reason to remain unclosed. With Gold now likely to go further upward, this stock should recover as well. In fact, this stock should lead the charge if Gold is to go higher. On a daily closing basis, pivotal resistance is found at 60.11/60.30. If the bulls can close above that level any day this week, a failure signal against the bears will be given and new buying would then likely occur. There is a 3rd gap at 61.12 that is likely to be targeted for closure this week if the selling interest has waned. There is no reason for that gap to stay unclosed. A break below last week's low will likely generate at least another $1 down and put the stock at risk of further downside. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. PGEN reported better than expected earnings and the bulls were able to rally the stock up to the pivotal weekly close resistance at 6.20, having closed on Friday at 6.14. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 6.29 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek resistance in found at 6.65 that broken would open the door for a rally up to a stronger intraweek resistance at 7.28 that includes the 200-day MA, currently at 7.32. That is the level that will decide the midterm outlook for the stock. For this week, a rally up to 6.65 is likely to be seen and some short term decision (for a few days) will be made there. Decent and not likely to be broken support is now found at 5.80. If broken, it would suggest negative fundamental news has come out (very unlikely after the good earnings report). This week is all about the weekly close resistance at 6.20 and again (but lesser) at 6.47. If those levels are broken, the bulls will get their edge back. It is an important-for-the-short-term week. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. SNDL generated a new 3-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .75 is expected to be seen this week. The entire Cannabis industry broke down this past week, meaning this break of support is not company oriented but industry oriented. The future outlook for the industry is positive starting in 2022 but not so much for the rest of the year. Pivotal daily close support is found at .69 that if broken would likely keep the bears in control the rest of the year. Pivotal daily close resistance is now found at .826. If broken, the bulls will get new chart ammunition. The probabilities favor the bears but only for a drop down to the .65 (intraweek low) to .69 (daily close support). SRUTF made a new 10-month intraweek low and a new 8-month weekly closing low this past week. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to rally the stock enough to close slightly above the mid-point of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at .0468 than below last week's low at .030. The stock is also in the Cannabis industry and as such, suffering the same ills being seen in the industry this year. Nonetheless, there was enough buying at the low seen this past that does suggest a decent possibility that a low has been made, if and when the bulls are able to get above last week's high and generate a weekly close above .0446. Pivotal intraweek support is found at .025. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls this week. ZLAB generated a 2nd green weekly close and did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 155.77 will be seen this week. It is important to note that the company reported lower than expected earnings on Tuesday and did sell off a bit off of the report. Nonetheless and in spite of the negative earnings, the bears were unable to break below the 200-day MA, currently at 146.12. In fact, the stock has stayed above the line on a daily closing basis for the past 11 days and if the negative earnings report did not give the bears enough ammunition to break the line during this period of time, there doesn't seem to be much chance they will have any success this week. There is open air above until the 160.00 level is reached (very minor resistance and then 163.94 (minor to perhaps decent but definitely short-term pivotal). As such, the probabilities are high that the stock will rally up to the $160 level this week. Short term pivotal support is now found at last week's low at 144.33. A stop loss can be placed now at 144.23. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
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1) SNDL - Purchased at .87. Averaged long at .905 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .75. 2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 6.14. 3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .038. 4) BTZI - Averaged long at .0935 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .065. 5) DCTH - Purchased at 10.93 and at 10.07. Averaged long at 10.50 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 9.32. Stock closed on Friday at 9.16. 6) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 148.94. 7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 15.91. 8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.31 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 58.84. 9) CNX - Purchased at 11.59. Averaged long at 11.055 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.48 10) LNG - Cocered shorts at 86.96. Averaged short at 85.755. Loss on trade of $241 per 100 shares (2 mentions). 11 ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.97. 12) QQQ - Covered shorts at 368.56. Shorted at 368.91. Profit on the trade of $35 per 100 shares. 13) CRON - Averaged long at 9.146 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.41. 14) MRGE - Purchased at .28. No stop loss at present. Stock closed at .15 on Friday.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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