Issue #718
May 9, 2021
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls Got Bad News and the market Yawned. Runaway Freight Train Status Back Again.

DOW Friday closing price - 34777
SPX Friday closing price - 4232
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 13719

The indexes had a mixed week with the DOW going up an additional 2.6%, the SPX going up an additional 1.3% but the NASDAQ going down 1.1%. Nonetheless, this was supposed to be (and ended up being) an indicative week and the indication ended up being that the bulls remain in full control and the "runaway freight train" continues on without any end in sight.

It must be mentioned that the news this week was not supportive of what happened as the ISM Index report came in substantially lower than expected (expected 66 and actual number was 60.4) and the Jobs report set a record for being the most disappointing report ever (expected to be 1.1 million and actual number coming out a 266k with a downward revision on the previous month from 916k to 770k, meaning the down number was close to -900k to what was expected). All of this should have been a strong negative to the market but the bulls ignored the reports and plowed higher. Such a case is a perfect example of a "runaway freight train".

The only index that generated a red close and still has clear and decent resistance above is the NASDAQ. It is evident that under the present economic scenario the Tech Sector is not likely to participate actively. All the investment money that went into the speculative area of the market previously and for the past few years, has now taken a back seat as the money is going into the Brick and Mortar side of the market. The money is heading into all those stocks/companies that previously suffered the most from the pandemic shut down and that now, and because "herd immunity from the pandemic" is on the horizon in the next few months and people begin to return to going out, traveling, and physically participating in the recovery, those companies are where the investing interest is now being seen. It is also the kind of companies that have such a long history of being established and unlikely to suffer any big downturn if things don't go exactly as expected (for example - bad economic reports) that has now grabbed the attention of investors that don't have any other place to invest in that offers the returns now being offered in the market. As such, it is the NASDAQ that will be used (at the present time) to measure how much higher the overall market is going to go.

The NASDAQ has 2 intraweek areas of resistance at 13879 and at the all-time high at 14073. Nonetheless, the daily and weekly closes are what the traders are going to be watching as those are the indicative levels. On a daily "and" weekly closing basis, the 13807 level is resistance. It was the previous all-time high daily and weekly close that in spite of the new highs made in the other indexes, has not reversed the failure signal given the previous week. Above that and on a weekly closing basis, the 14041 level is important and pivotal resistance. On the daily closing chart, the 14073 level is the pivotal level. If the former is broken, the bulls will get new ammunition and if the latter is broken, the NAZ will join the runaway freight train, meaning the sky is the limit.

For the sake of information, it was stated in the year 2000 that the DOW would reach 50,000 within the next 10-20 years and now for the first time that number has become more of a probability than a speculative possibility. The index has almost doubled (gone up 90%) in just 14 months and if this continues and the index goes up in the next 14 months what is has gone up the last 14 months (16,000 points), it will reach 50,000 by August 2022.

The other thing to watch now are the previous all-time daily and weekly closing highs in the DOW and the SPX at 34200 and at 4185 respectively (in both the daily and weekly closing charts). In a runaway freight train scenario, the only thing to watch for is a stoppage of the momentum and any confirmed weekly close below those levels will successfully show that happening. There is only one economic report scheduled for this week that has any capacity to make any dent in the momentum and that is the CPI (inflation) number that is due to come out Wednesday morning. It is expected to come out at .2%. Last month it came out at .6% and it was a surprise to the upside. Another surprise like that to the upside, would be a negative that the raging bulls might not be able to ignore. Nonetheless, anything around .2-.3% would likely be ignored.

The probabilities do favor the bulls this week though there are a lot of factors in play (such as the overbought condition, the chart prediction that a correction is likely to start soon, as well as the "sell in May and go away" adage) that could derail the rally. Up to now, all these types of factors-in-play have failed miserably to stop the momentum and are once again likely to continue to fail. Nonetheless, they are mentioned because history more often comes true than not.


GOLD bulls made a short-term bullish statement, having closed on Friday above an established weekly close resistance at $1778, as well as generating a failure signal against the bears, having closed above a previously important and pivotal weekly close support at $1781 that when broken, caused Gold to drop down to $1673. The statement made was unequivocal given that Gold closed $13-$16 above those levels, meaning there was no question about it. Gold closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $1844 will be seen this week. There is no intraweek resistance above until $1878 is reached but it must be mentioned that the 2-point downtrend line (drawn using the all-time intraweek high at $2089 made in June of last year and the spike high made in January of this year at $1962) is presently at $1856 and that line will be an obstacle to further upside. Intraweek support is now clearly evident and short-term pivotal at $1767 that should not be broken. The chart is now showing a bullish pennant formation that if fully built and then broken, would offer an objective of $2046. To build the formation though, Gold would need to stop around $1856 and generate at least one lower-than-the-previous-week's low. The formation would then be built and if broken, the objective come in play. For this week, the probabilities favor Gold moving up to $1856 and seen selling interest appear, which would then be followed by a close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below whatever low is made next week, the following week. It is highly likely that at some point in the next few weeks that on a daily and weekly closing basis that the $1801 level will be seen again. For this week though, probabilities fully support further upside.

SILVER made a new 8-month weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 27.80 will be seen this week. Silver did close above a decent weekly close resistance at 25.32 but only closed above it by $.15 cents, meaning it was not a clear or totally convincing break. Then again, it was a new 11-week intraweek high with a spike up attached, suggesting that the bulls are unlikely to fail to go higher this week and on a weekly closing basis. By the same token, there is still quite a bit of resistance above that the bulls must overcome in order to make a statement that the bulls trend has resumed. On an intraweek basis, there is resistance at 28.47 and some more at 29.31 and then the stronger and more pivotal resistance is found at 30.04 and at the multi-year high at 30.59, meaning that this rally seen this past week is simply the opening salvo to what is needed before Silver resumes the uptrend. Using the daily chart, things are a bit clearer with resistance-unlikely-to-be-broken-at-this-time at 27.80/27.84. Nonetheless, if the bulls can close above those levels and close above 28.16, then this rally will take on additional meaning. On a weekly closing basis, a close above 28.23 would be a bull statement. Pivotal daily close support is now found at 26.08, which if broken, would strongly take ammunition away from the bulls. Probabilities favor Silver trading between 27.80 and 26.22 for the next couple of weeks.

OIL continued the recovery to the upside with yet another green weekly close. Nonetheless, oil did generate movement to the downside off of the economic reports that came out this past week and did close exactly in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting that the bulls have lost the momentum and that the traders will be waiting for further news or further appreciation in the index market to go higher. By the same token, the bulls were able to maintain the edge given that there were a couple of opportunities where the bears could have gotten their edge back but they failed. By the same token and using the daily chart, the double top generated in Feb/Mch at 66.09/66.02 is now showing a successful retest of it with Tuesday's close at 65.69, followed by 3 lower closes in a row, meaning that the onus is on the bulls this week to negate that successful retest. Evidently, a daily close above 65.69 would be a bull positive but now a daily close below 63.58 would be a short-term negative that would confirm the successful retest of the double high and bring in new selling interest. The weekly supply and demand numbers come out on Wednesday morning and until then, oil is likely to trade between those 2 levels of support and resistance. The bulls still have the edge but there are now doubts whereas last week, doubts were minimal.

DOLLAR generated a negative reversal week of consequence, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing red and below the previous week's low. In addition, the weekly close not only negated the previous week's failure signal against the bears but generated a new one against the bulls and of more consequence given that it closed below a second previous weekly close support at 90.36 (closed at 90.23). The Dollar close on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 90.19 is expected to be seen this week. There is pivotal intraweek support at 89.68 that if broken would be a statement of consequence of weakness in the Dollar. The fundamental news that came out this week also is supportive of the weakness seen, meaning that this move down is not likely to be a one-week thing. On an intraweek basis, the 91.50 level has now become strongly pivotal resistance unlikely to be broken without a change of fundamentals. The question likely to be asked and answered this week or the next, is whether the downtrend has resumed or whether the Dollar is going to trade sideways between 89.00 and 91.50. Probabilities favor the bears this week.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no mentions at this time for this week. The market is confusing as to the overall outlook, with big but safe stocks going higher but other stocks going lower. The big safe stocks cannot (should not) be chased and the depressed stocks have shown very little ability to rally, meaning that the sidelines is the place to be at this time. Things can (and likely will) change "on a dime" but when that dime falls it not something that can be anticipated at this time.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU generated a new 5-month high weekly close buy signal and close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 23.30 will be seen this week. This close was indicative, at least on a short-term basis, given that there was a lot of established weekly close resistance between 22.75 and 22.98, all of which were broken. With Gold also giving a buy signal, the stock should continue to move higher with the 200-day MA, currently at 24.59, as the objective. Longer term daily close resistance is found at 25.42, that if broken would give the bulls new and strong chart ammunition for more. There is some short-term pivotal resistance at 23.45 that if not broken, would likely bring some selling and a drop back down to at least 21.98, a level that is now considered support. Probabilities favor the bulls.

BTZI generated a break of established weekly close support at .105, having closed on Friday at .09. The failure to hold up that area means that the traders are not expecting anything positive happening at this time. By the same token, the stock is still showing a double bottom on the intraweek chart at .07 that has not been broken and if the bulls are able to stay above that level this week and generate a green weekly close, especially if above .105, this past week's action will become a successful retest of that level as well as a failure to confirm the break of weekly close support. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .08 will be seen this week. By the same token and on the daily chart, it did close on Friday in the upper half of the day's trading range, suggesting the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the upside. There is intraweek and daily close resistance at .105 that if broken, the weakness seen this past week will be erased. At this time though, the probabilities slightly favor the bears.

CNX generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 14.17 will be seen this week. It is clearly evident by the past 5 weekly closes (at 13.83, at 13.72. at 13.57, at 13.42 and on Friday at 13.75) that there is strong buying at this level and without some negative catalyst, the probabilities for the downside are very low. If the stock goes above last week's high this week, last week's low will become a successful retest of the 9-week low at 13.13 seen 4 weeks ago, strongly suggesting that the traders will turn around and explore the upside. The stock has been given a $16 value by several rating agencies and if this happens, it is highly likely the traders will attempt to get up to that price over the next few week. Evidently, any break below 13.13 would now be seen as a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls strongly this week.

CRON continued its weakness, having generated the 5th red weekly close in a row, the 7th in the last 8 weeks and the 9th in the last 12 weeks and having dropped 55% in value. Nonetheless, the stock got down to within $.25 cents of a pivotal and important support level and the bulls were able to generate enough buying to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 8.16 will be seen this week. If that occurs, it will be a sign that a support level of dependability may have been reached. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, having made the week's low that day and then closing above Thursday's high, meaning that the possibilities of a spike low having been made are now decent. The stock did close 2 days in a row below the 200-day MA, currently at 7.90 but if able to negate that break this week with at least 2 closes above the line, the traders are likely to start thinking about buying. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 8.51 (19-day intraweek high), which is also where the 200-week MA, currently at 8.58, is also at. A break of that resistance will turn the recent downtrend around into at least a sideways trend. The company reported earnings on Friday and they were much lower than anticipated (-$.44 vs expected -$.11) and that is what brought in the selling. The fact the stock generated a positive reversal day in spite of the negative report is an indication no further selling below last week's low is likely to be seen. In addition, it should be mentioned that Altria, who merged with CRON a year ago, has been rallying of late (up 30% in 6 months). The probabilities do favor the bulls with the only question now being "by how much".

ENG reported earnings and they were substantially below what was expected and the stock tanked. A new 20-week intraweek and weekly closing low was generated and the stock also closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.24 is expected to be seen this week. The stock has now fallen 76% in value over the past 15 weeks. Up until now and after the 13-year weekly close support at 5.24 was broken, there has been no previous low support found (all supports broken recently have been previous high weekly close supports). Nonetheless, there is decent intraweek low support at 2.03, which is also the level from which the original breakout occurred, suggesting the stock is close to find a level of support that will not likely be broken. Nonetheless, this breakdown has made the job of the bulls to generate upside a lot harder. Evidently, all the previous intraweek highs that were broken on this rally are once again resistance levels (at 3.10, at 4.22 and at 5.68). For the short term, the 200-day MA, currently at 2.98, is going to be the first obstacle to overcome, especially since that was the high seen just prior to the earnings report coming out. Overcoming the earnings report negatives is not going to be easy. As such and for this coming week, the stock is likely to trade between the $2 and $3 level.

MRGE continued lower, breaking the recent trend of trading between $.30 and $.45. Nonetheless, on a chart basis there was no support of consequence broken given that the established intraweek support is found at .225 and .24. In addition, there is a spike low support of consequence at .19. Nonetheless, this is a fundamental buy and hold play waiting for news to occur, the date of which is not known. That news is supposed to cause the stock to move up to the $2 level. As such, chart analysis is not all that useful. Nonetheless, the break of the trading range the stock has been on likely signals a change of the sideways attitude seen recently, which in turn also suggest some news may be on the horizon. The stock has fallen 56% in value during the past 8 weeks and it is now oversold and at levels where "normal" buying interest is likely to be found given that the fundamental picture has not changed.

NEM reversed direction and made a new 27-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 67.96 will be seen this week. This new multi-week high makes last week's intraweek low at 60.85 into a new, decent and pivotal support level from which the bulls can buy from with a measure of confidence. Nonetheless and on a potential short-term negative note, the stock has now almost reached a level of established decent weekly close resistance between 67.90 and 68.14 that is likely going to take an additional and even stronger break of resistance in Gold to overcome. As such, I will be looking to possibly take profits on the remaining positions if the bulls reach that level but are unable to generate a weekly close above it. Either way, the stock is now a purchase on any dips back down close to the $61 level. Probabilities favor the bulls.

PEP had an uneventful week even though it generated a green weekly close. Nonetheless, the recent and now established weekly close resistance at 145.83 was not broken in spite of the fact the DOW and the SPX made new all-time highs. As such, the trading seen last week keeps the bears with the edge. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 146.78 will be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 147.80, which if broken, would suggest the bulls have regained the edge, if not control. Last week's low at 143.49 is now important from the point of view that if broken, this week's rally will become a 3rd successful retest of the multi-year highs. Pivotal support is found at 141.76 that if broken, it will signal that a correction has started. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

PGEN made a new 7-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 6.32 will be seen this week. This drop and close was also very disappointing given that 2 weeks ago a failure signal against the bears was generated and the bulls failed to confirm that it was a dependable signal with this week's new multi-week low close. Nonetheless, the stock is nearing the next level of decent weekly close support at 6.20, which was the first level that when broken caused the stock to rally to 11.10 to occur. There has been no change in the fundamental picture or negative news, suggesting this is all chart oriented and likely temporary, which in turn suggests that at least a bounce will occur. The stock did close on Thursday and Friday below the 200-day MA, currently at 6.79, which is a further negative. By the same token, this kind of break of the MA has already occurred 4 times in the last year and each and every time, it was negated within a few days thereafter The bulla must get above the line and close above the line for at least 2 days in a row to negate the break. If so, a rally back to the previous pivotal daily and weekly close point at 7.81 will likely occur. That level is once again mid-term pivotal. Probabilities do favor the bears this week but only for a small move down. Probabilities do favor a green weekly close next Friday. The company reports earnings on May 31st (3 weeks from now) and until then, it is likely to trade between 6.20 and 7.80.

SNDL generated a green weekly close and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .79 will be seen. The green close has made the previous weeks close at .71 into a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at .69, and if that gets confirmed this week with another green weekly close, it would suggest the worst of the correction is over. Short-term intraweek resistance is found at .95, which if broken would be confirmation of a bottom to the correction having been found. Any weekly close below .69 would be a negative but that is unlikely to happen. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SRUTF made a new 10-day intraweek high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .541 will be seen this week. The bears have failed to make any progress to the downside for the past 6 weeks, suggesting the bulls may try to generate a breakout this week. Any daily close above .559 will give the bulls the edge and a close above .0585 would be a breakout. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ZLAB dropped down 5.1% in price this past week and continued the correction that started the previous week. Nonetheless, the stock got down close to the previous daily close breakout point at 148.66, having seen a low this past week at 150.28. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low will be seen this week. Nonetheless and using the daily closing chart, the stock did generate a green daily close on Friday, meaning that Thursday's close at 151.47 has become a successful retest of the now previously established daily close support at 150.77, suggesting that the probabilities of going below last week's low this coming week are not as high as it would normally be. The correction being seen at this time is purely chart oriented as the positive news that generated the rally has not been negated. In addition, the $150 level is psychological support. Some bullishness was negated when the "island" formation got negated but the fundamentals and the chart picture still strongly favor the bulls. There are 2 daily close resistance levels above at 162.02 and at 164.83. A close above the former would take some ammunition away from the bears and a close above the latter would suggest the bulls have the edge back. A daily close below 150.77 would now be seen as a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls though it is possible some intraday/intraweek weakness could be seen this week and a drop down to 148.66 occur.


1) SNDL - Purchased at .94. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .765.

2) PGEN - Averaged long at 7.506 (3 mentions). Stop close only at 6.45. Stock closed on Friday at 6.54.

3) SRUTF - Averaged long at .0738 (3 mentions). No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .053.

4) BTZI - Averaged long at .1054 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .09.

5) PEP - Shorted at 146.10. Stop loss at 147.90. Stock closed on Friday at 145.56.

6) ZLAB - Averaged long at 134.64 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 158.14.

7) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 23.10.

8) NEM - Averaged long at 61.31 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 67.33.

9) CNX - Averaged long at 10.876 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 12.69 (weekly. Stock closed on Friday at 13.73.

10) SCU - Liquidated at 23.23. Loss on the trade of $36 per 100 shares.

11) ENG - Averaged long at 4.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.53.

12)

AXP - Shorted at 155.63. Covered shorts at 156.35. Loss on the trade of $72 per 100 shares.

13)

CAT - Shorted at 228.57. Covered shorts at 235.42. Loss on the trade of $675 per 100 shares.

14)

GPS - Shorted at 34.85. Covered shorts at 35.80. Loss on the trade of $95 per 100 shares.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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