Issue #707
Feb 14, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Euphoria About the Future Permeating the Market. More Upside to Come?

DOW Friday closing price - 31458
SPX Friday closing price - 3934
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 14095

The indexes continued higher this past week, gaining an additional 1%-1.7% in value. They all closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week. There were no earnings or economic reports that gave any new ammunition to the bulls, meaning it was all momentum that brought about the additional gains. It does need to be stated that the overall outlook of traders in general has now turned bullish (few bears left) and there is talk about not only further upside being seen but substantially so. There is an old adage that goes as follows "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." Nonetheless, it is always difficult to measure the difference between optimism and euphoria, meaning that there is no way at this time to say that the market is about to "die off".

The NASDAQ generated a key reversal day on Wednesday but that was "mostly erased by Friday, especially considering that it made a new all-time daily closing high on Friday. Nonetheless, the index did not negate the reversal on the intraweek chart, having gotten up to 14,095 on Friday but Wednesday's high was 14,108. As such, that is "one" thing that will be watched by the traders on Monday, given that if the index opens lower (does not follow through on the opening), the traders will likely jump on the sell side using the 14,108 level as a stop loss point. Nonetheless, I only mention this as a possibility and not as a probability so as to know what the traders will likely to with a lower opening on Monday.

As far as economic reports for this week, Retail Sales on Wednesday is the most important economic report this week but there is also Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, PPI and Housing Starts reported this week. In addition, the Fed reports on Wednesday its Fed Rate decision. Nonetheless and based on recent action after economic reports have come out, it is unlikely that any of these reports will be negatively catalytic.

As has been the case the past couple of weeks, it is all about momentum and when it stops. The indexes did slow down the Momentum this past week, especially toward the latter part of the week and that pattern is expected to continue. Evidently, without any strong support levels below, as the indexes rally, a beneficial risk/reward ratio shrinks and all it will take is some bad piece of news to generate a big move down.

For this coming week, last Wednesday lows will be the pivot point this week. In the DOW that level is at 31221, in the SPX it is at 3884, and in the NASDAQ it is at 13845. A break of those levels will likely bring about some profit taking and further downside.

There doesn't seem to be any negative catalysts on the horizon, meaning the probabilities continue to favor the bulls.


GOLD generated an inside week and a green weekly close, which is a positive given that no follow through to the downside was seen after the previous week's close near the low of the week, which had suggested that further downside would be seen last week. In addition, Gold generated a green weekly close on Friday even though late in the day on Friday, it was trading below the previous week's close, Nonetheless, the late rally to close at $1823, makes the previous weeks close at $1813 into a potential successful retest of the multi-month low weekly close at $1781. If the bulls are able to close next week above $1856 ($1878 intraweek), the successful retest of that low will be confirmed. The bears have now had several opportunities the past couple of weeks, especially when the Dollar was rallying, to break the uptrend in Gold and so far they have failed. With last week's action, it can be said the chart is now set up for the bulls to start making a positive statement. If they are able to do it, the chart will be fulfilled to the downside and the uptrend can restart. Using the daily chart, if the bulls can get above Friday's high at $1831 on Monday, the daily chart will be fulfilled to the downside with confirmation of that occurring if the $1856 level is broken. A break below $1784 would be strongly negative. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

SILVER generated an inside week after the previous week's negative reversal, meaning the bears were unable to generate any follow through to the previous week's 14.6% drop from high to low. In addition, Silver generated a green weekly close, meaning that the recent uptrend continues without a negative retest of the previous highs on the weekly closing chart. Silver did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 27.87 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 28.10 and if broken, there is no resistance above until 29.23 is reached. Support is now found at 26.75 and stronger and more pivotal and negatively indicative at the previous week's low at 25.93. The level to watch this week is 28.10. Probabilities are high that it will get up to that level this week but breaking above it is a big question mark. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

OIL continued higher this past week and had a big positive reversal day on Friday, having gone below Thursday's low but then generating a strong rally to close indicatively above Thursday's high. Oil closed near the high of the day, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 59.82 will be seen this week. Oil is now getting near its upside objective, which is the 60.93 level, based on a weekly close (on an intraweek basis though, there is a decent possibility of Oil getting as high as 63.38). On an intraweek basis and if Oil goes above Friday's high on Monday, short term pivotal support will become Friday's low at 57.41. The chart suggests that Oil will be getting into a $50-$60 trading range for several months, if not more. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

DOLLAR generated a red week as well as a giving a failure signal, having closed below the previous high weekly close at 90.70 (closed at 90.48). Oil closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 90.25 will be seen this week. Using the daily closing chart, any daily close above 90.77 will give back the edge to the bulls, while a close below 90.13 will give the edge to the bears. A weekly close below 90.24 will generate a new sell signal and a close below 89.94 will give back total control to the bears. Probabilities favor the bears.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I took a look at a lot of stocks this weekend, looking for something to trade. Mostly what I found was either stocks that were in a transition phase (not tradeable this week) or stocks on a major breakout where risk and objectives are not measurable. Nonetheless, I did find 2 stocks that are tradeable and as such, those are the mentions this week. One is a held positive where adding shares this week makes sense and one is in a completely new stock I have not traded for some time.

I also want to mention that the positions I have mentioned over the past 2 weeks that have not reached the desired entry levels (FSLR and LNG) are still viable trades if those levels are reached. I just don't believe the desired entry points will be reached this week and I am not yet ready to chase.

PURCHASES

PEP Friday Closing Price - 133.87

PEP is Pepsico, the cola company. The stock made a new all-time high the last week of December at 148.77 but there was no follow through to the upside as the very next week a failure signal occurred and since then the stock has been going down consistently with 5 red weekly closes the past 6 weeks. This past week, the stock dropped 5% in value due to the earnings report disappointing and made a new 16-week intraweek and weekly closing low and did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 133.45 is expected to be seen.

Nonetheless and during the past 18 months (excluding last March when the entire market fell precipitously), PEP has basically traded between $130 and $147 and with the drop last week and the close on the low of the week, that same area of support is likely to be reached this week. It is important to note that during this fall from the new all-time high, the stock at no time has generated a higher high than the previous week, meaning that the all-time high has not been yet tested successfully and having checked the earnings news, there has been no downgrade of the company, with the consensus still giving the stock a $152 upward target. As such and with the stock near a strongly established support level, I believe the stock is a buy.

On a daily closing basis, PEP shows support at 127.84, at 128.93, at the $130 demilitarized zone (repeatedly - 5 times), at 131.00, and at the most recent at 133.29. This amount of support is going to be extremely difficult to break without any new fundamental changes and given that the stock reported earnings this past week that is not likely to occur.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, PEP shows no resistance until 135.16 (minor), 137.99-138.63 (minor to perhaps decent), 142.50 (minor to decent), 144.13 (decent and likely target of the mention), 146.94 (decent and possible target), and at the all-time high at 148.77. Using the weekly chart, likely upside target of the mention is 144.11.

The chart shows that a drop down to around the 131.71 is likely to be seen this week. If that level of support holds up, the bulls will enter the trade with enough ammunition to attempt a rally back up to $144. If that level of support is broken, the upside climb will be a bit more difficult and take a bit more time but the upside objective would not change, just take longer to achieve. The one level of intraweek support that needs to hold up for the rally back up to $144 not evaporate is 129.36. As such, the stop loss will be at 129.26.

Purchases of PEP below 132.00 (or below) and using a stop loss at 129.26 and having a 144.11 objective, offers a risk/reward ratio of 5-1.

My rating on the trade is 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

SRUTF Friday Closing Price - .0526

SRUTF is a presently held stock. This stock is in the Cannabis industry and started to move up because all stocks in that industry have been moving up. This one has lagged but at this price and if a breakout occurs this week, the stock is likely to catch up and possibly surpass what the other stocks have already done (such as TLRY and CRON).

See the details of the chart evaluation below under the Held Stock category given that the stock still needs to do more in order to break out and as such, consideration may be given to waiting until it breaks out before purchasing. Nonetheless, there was a mini breakout this past week and as such, the stop loss area has been established and with the rounded bottom that the stock has built during the past 18 months, it is worth purchasing expecting the stock to break out and not waiting for the breakout itself. By the same token, purchasing the stock prior to the breakout does reduce the probability rating on the trade.

Purchases of SRUTF at Fridays close at .0526 and using a stop loss at .0425 and having a .18 objective, offers a 13-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AG generated an inside week but a green weekly close and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 17.71 will be seen this week. The failure of the bears to take the stock lower in spite of the big negative reversal seen the past week, suggests that the reasons for the rally (Silver making new multi-year highs) remains viable. Nonetheless, this coming week is pivotal given that on the weekly closing chart, there is a double top at 18.10/18.12 and if that double top is confirmed with a red weekly close next Friday, especially if below last week's close at 16.50, the stock will likely drop all the way down to the 13.40, from which the recent breakout occurred. By the same token and on an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above until the 19.15/19.29 level is reached. As such, it is expected the stock will rally up to (or close to) the $19 level. If 19.29 is broken, the stock is likely to continue higher. If not broken and selling starts to be seen, consideration should be given to taking profits and then see where the stock closes on Friday. If below 16.50, no purchases should be made again until the stock gets below $14. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

AU generated a new 3-month weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 24.67 will be seen this week. The action seen this week in the stock seems indicative, given that Gold has been under sell pressure the past few months. The upside objective for this week is the next resistance level above at 25.75, which is decent and pivotal resistance. If broken, and especially if a daily close above the 200-day MA, currently at 26.21, occurs, the bulls will gain back full short-term control. Pivotal support is now found at 21.94. Probabilities favor the bulls.

BTZI made a new 21-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .098 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above until .1445 is reached but that resistance is minor. The 200-week MA is currently at .16 and that is now a valid upside objective given the breakout that has occurred after a 16-month period of successful bottom building between the .025 and .0545 area. In addition, this is a company that is now likely to get some benefits from the Cannabis industry having broken out but also because they have increased their area of expertise to robotics when MCIG became BOTS Inc., which is certainly an industry for future growth. Weekly close support will now be found between .066 and .073, which should no longer be broken if this breakout is for real (likely to be). The stock appreciated 70% in value this past week and there is no resistance above until the .16 level is reached, meaning it could appreciate an additional 72% above Friday's close. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CAT made a new weekly closing high on Friday but the bulls were unable to do the same on an intraweek basis, having made a high last week at 199.71 but the all-time high made 5 weeks ago was 120.17. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high will be seen this week. There is one small negative that may be indicative and that is the fact that the stock gapped up this week between 194.33 and 194.39 and that gap is a magnet for closure. In addition, the $200 area must be considered decent psychological resistance, meaning that with the indexes just looking to "inch" higher that the bulls might fail here. Stop loss remains at 120.35. There is no support below until 194.39 is reached and if broken, there is no support below until minor support at 190.01 and then stronger and midterm pivotal at 179.34. Probabilities do favor the bulls but much is likely to be decided on Monday.

CNX generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low but then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 13.40 will be seen. This past week is likely to be important as the stock had not generated a lower low than the previous week for the previous 5 weeks and now that it has, if the stock does go above last week's high, last week's low at 12.23 will become a successful retest of the intraweek suppor as well as of the 200-week MA. This positive reversal week should give the bulls enough ammunition to test and likely break the double top on the intraweek chart at 14.19/14.09 and if that occurs, the $17 level will become the objective. If the stock gets above 13.40 this week, the 12.23 level will become short-term pivotal support. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FNV generated a 2nd green weekly close in a row but the stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 120.69 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, that is not a bad thing, if and when the previous week's low at `117.66 is not broken. A retest of that multi-month low has to occur before the bulls climb aboard again and a drop below last week's low will accomplish that, if and when next week the stock goes above whatever high is seen this week. Pivotal resistance is now found at 125.36 that if broken after a successful retest of the low occurs, will generate strong buying for at least a rally up to the $130 level. Evidently, a break below 117.66 would be a strong negative. Probabilities favor the bulls after a drop below last week's low occurs.

FPRX generated a new 13-week intraweek high this past week and gave a new buy signal on the daily closing chart. Nonetheless, the "new" buy signal was negated on Friday when the stock closed below the previous high daily close broken on Wednesday at 20.12. The stock did close on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 19.35 will be seen this week. The chart reality is that the stock had moved straight up for 4 weeks in a row without any retest of the 10.week low at 13.63 occurring and if the stock does go below last week's low this week and then turns around the following week, this week's low will become that needed and required retest of the 13.63 low. As it is, the stock had rallied 65% in value over the past 5 weeks, meaning a bit of a drawback was likely to be seen. The chart does show some intraweek support at 1859 that could easily be the downside target for this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 20.98 and pivotal at 21.43. Probabilities slightly favor the bears at the beginning of the week but the bulls for the latter part of the week.

NEM generated an inside week but a red weekly close and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 57.55 than above last week's high at 60.93. Nonetheless on Friday, the stock generated a positive reversal day on the daily chart and if the stock goes above Friday's high at 59.24, it will make Friday's low at 57.55 into a successful retest of the 3-month low at 55.60 and that will bring in new buying. If last week's high is broken, no further downside is likely to be seen and a rally back up to the 200-day MA, currently at 62.40, would likely occur. The stock has now seen 5 red weekly closes in a row and that has not happened since September 2018 and given that the stock is still in a longer term bull trend, probabilities highly favor a green weekly close next Friday. Evidently, a drop below 55.55 would be a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.

PFE generated an inside week and a red weekly close but did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 35.08 will be seen this week. If that occurs, the recent sell pressure will be relieved. The bears had a chance to make a further statement when on Thursday, the stock got to within 1 point of the previous weeks low. Nonetheless, the bears failed and on Friday, the stock generated a rally above Thursday's high and closed green, meaning that on the daily chart there is now a double low in place. If the stock goes above last week's high, that double low will be confirmed and a rally back up to at least the 200-day MA, currently at 35.55 will likely be seen. This is not yet a solution to the recent sell pressure but it is a start. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

QQQ continued the uptrend, having made a new intraweek and weekly closing high. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 336.62 is expected to be seen. The stock has left an open gap at 323.54 that should be a magnet should the momentum slow down or stop. Nonetheless, at this moment there is no reason to think the momentum will stop. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SRUTF generated a new 5-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above $.06 cents will be seen this week. The stock does have pivotal weekly close resistance at .0585, meaning that if the stock does go above last week's high and the bulls are able to maintain that rally to close above that level, a breakout of consequence will occur as that is the 10-month high in a "rounded bottom" formation (strongest chart support pattern in existence). Above $.06 there is absolutely no weekly close resistance until the .14.8 level (minor) is reached. Above that level, there is further resistance .17.56 (slightly better than minor) and then decent and strongly pivotal resistance at .1998. The stock broke above the 200-day MA, currently at .045, on Monday and stayed above the line all week, meaning a break of that line is now confirmed, which in turn means it is now support of consequence on a daily closing basis. On an intraweek basis, there is resistance at .08 and then again at .09, one of both of those likely being the objectives for this week. Probabilities favor the bulls.

W has basically stalled awaiting news. For the past 8 trading days, the stock has traded sideways between 277.43 and 304.50, with both of those areas having been seen twice during this period of time. The traders await more clarification from the indexes or from the earnings report due out February 25. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 304.50 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, unless the bulls can get above 324.21, the stock will likely to continue to trade sideways until the earnings report comes out. The chart also suggests that at some point between now and the earnings report, a drop below 277.43 will occur, with a likely move down to 271.60. For this week, probabilities slightly favor the bulls but it is also likely that both red and green will be seen repeatedly.


1) FPRX - Purchased at 15.72. Averaged long at 15.00 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 13.53. Stock closed on Friday at 19.11.

2) BTZI - Purchased at .0545. Averaged long at .1615 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0955.

3) CRON - Liquidated at 13.96. Averaged long at 14.065. Loss on the trade of $21 per 100 shares(2 mentions) minus commissions.

4) CRON - Liquidated at 15.42. Averaged long at 6.79. Profit on the trade of $1726 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.

5) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0435.

6) W - Averaged short at 86.61 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 292.97.

7) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 197.99.

8) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 336.45.

9) AXP - Liquidated at 130.08. Averged short at 93.953. Loss on the trade of $10,838 per 100 shares (3 mentions) plus commissions.

10) AU - Averaged long at 26.106 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 23.99.

11) NEM - Averaged long at 61.08 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 58.94.

12) CNX - Averaged long at 9.10 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 13.32.

12) FNV - Averaged long at 122.71 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 117.55. Stock closed on Friday at 121.16.

13) AG - Purchased at 16.84. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 17.41.

14) AXP - Day Traded short (2 times). Profit of $129 per 100 shares minus commissions.

15) CAT - Shorted for a Day Trade at 198.71. Covered shorts at 197.59. Profit on the trade of $112 per 100 shares minus commissions.

16) FPRX - Purchased at 19.92. Liquidated at 19.84. Loss on the trade of $8 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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