Issue #689
Oct 11, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls in Short-Term Control. New Highs or Beginning of Dowtrend to be Decided!

DOW Friday closing price - 28586
SPX Friday closing price - 3477
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 11579

Across the board, all indexes generated a strong rally as well as break of resistance, having rallied anywhere from 3.8% DOW and SPX to 4.4% in the NASDAQ. All indexes closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 28676, SPX at 3482, NAZ at 11581) will be seen this week. The reason for the rally was the probability of another stimulus program being agreed to by the parties as well as improving economic conditions in Asia and Europe.

Due to this rally and break of resistance (mainly the SPX getting above the previous all-time high at 3393 (3380 on a weekly closing basis), the correction has now been proven that it is over and the only question now remaining is whether the uptrend has resumed and new all-time highs made in the SPX and NASDAQ or whether this becomes the necessary/required successful retest of the all-time highs that shows that the bull market uptrend is over and a downtrend has begun. As such, the next 3 weeks have become strongly pivotal given that with the rally seen this past week above resistance, the bulls are now totally committed to making a new all-time highs in the SPX and NAZ as they are in a swim or sink scenario where it is either resuming the uptrend or showing that the 11-year bull market is over. With the election being only 3 weeks away and a Trump win being bullish and a Biden win being bearish, the fundamental picture supports these next few weeks being strongly pivotal.

In the DOW the weekly closing level to watch is 28653 as that is the previously successful retest of the all-time high weekly close. A close above that level would generate a new buy signal and a run to the all-time high weekly close at 29398. The index did get above that level on an intraweek basis on Friday but the bulls were unable to close above that level on Friday. In the SPX, the all-time weekly closing high is at 3508 and with the close on Friday being at 3477, a rally of only 32 points this week (based on next Friday's close) is all that is needed for a new all-time high to be made. In the NASDAQ, the all-time high weekly close is at 11695 and that is only 116 points from the close on Friday. These numbers all suggest that this coming week the bulls will be in a position to make new all-time highs if the same type of rally occurs this week as was seen last week. Mind you, these all weekly closing highs and therefore the action intraweek will not be all that important. For example, if the stimulus program is agreed to early in the week (as it needs to be), the indexes will rally off of the news. Nonetheless, after the initial rally, there will be little else positive to anticipate and as such, if the stimulus itself is not good enough to make traders feel it is enough to support new highs, the indexes will sell off at the end of the week. One thing that is clear right now, any red weekly close prior to new all-time weekly closing highs being made with be a dagger to the hearts of the bulls. Simply stated, new highs made or else.

To the downside, there is no intraweek support close by that is pivotal. By the same token but to a "smaller degree", the bulls need to maintain the momentum and any red daily close will be seen as a potential and probable negative. Simply stated, the bulls need to maintain all green daily closes every day this week until new all-time highs are made.

Biden is now being touted as the favorite to win the election, meaning that the probabilities are not actually in favor of the bulls being able to accomplish these goals. If the stimulus is agreed to (probable), it will certainly help the bulls on a short-term basis, but then the sustainability of the rally will be the key question asked. As of right now, probability numbers are not clear, other than to say that overall they do favor the bears slightly.


GOLD has now generated a 4.4% rally ($85) from the previous week's low at $1851, and in the process gave a failure signal against the bears, having closed above the low daily close at $1923 that caused Gold top drop all the way down to that level and generate a successful retest of the previous all-time high weekly close from 2011 at $1848. Gold closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $1936 will be seen this week. The stock also closed slightly above the previous low weekly close at $1934, meaning that another green weekly close next Friday will also generate a failure signal on the weekly chart. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at $1970 and on a weekly closing basis at $1972, meaning that a close above both of those levels this week will generate a new buy signal and resumption of the uptrend. As such, both of those levels are likely objectives to be reached this week. The $1877 level ($1890 on a daily closing basis) is now pivotal support that if broken would negate all the gains made this past week. On an intraweek basis, this week's objective is likely to be $1975 and to the downside, $1908. Probabilities favor the bulls.

OIL has been trading sideways for the past 4 weeks between 36.63 and 41.49 without the bulls or the bears able to generate any clear direction. Oil closed near the high of the week on Friday, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 41.48 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, on two of the last 4 weeks, Oil closed either on the high or the low of the week but follow through was not seen the following week, suggesting just as much chance of that occurring again as that of follow through to the upside being seen. One daily closing level that needs to be watched this week is 41.11/41.19. There is a double high at that level that if broken would open the door for a rally at least up to 41.96. To the downside, the level to watch is 39.29, also on a daily closing basis, as a break of that level would suggest a drop down to the 36.76/37.05 level would be seen (also all on a daily closing basis). Probabilities favor more of the same as seen the past 4 weeks without and mini breakout or breakdown, until such a time the index traders make up their mind on what to do.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week as direction favor the bulls but is cloudy due to the uncertainty of the stimulus program as well as whether the resumption of the uptrend has begun or if this is the last push up before a new downtrend begins. I doubt that will become clear this week as the election in 3 weeks is also a likely catalyst. Day trades are still the best trade right now. I will mention those on the message board as they become available.

By the way, last week I mentioned that purchases in AU, CNX, NEM and RIO were a good action to take. I hope you took me up on those as they all worked out and further upside is expected this week.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AU generated a new buy signal on the weekly chart, having closed on Friday above the most recent high weekly close at 26.46. Nonetheless, it was not a totally convincing buy signals as the stock closed at 27.94 and there is a previous high weekly of consequence at 27.75, as well as 3 previous low weekly closes (all of consequence) at 27.65, at 27.90 and at 27.90. As such, the bulls are in a must-generate another green weekly close this coming Friday to confirm the correction is over and that the uptrend is resuming. By the same token, there are several additional bullish chart signs that definitely favor the bulls. The first one is that an island formation has been built, with the stock gapping down on 9/21 from 27.06 to 26.52 and gapping up on Friday between 26.65 and 27.33. In addition, the stock is showing a breakaway/runaway gap formation, having gapped up on Thursday between 25.84 to 26.01 and then again on Friday between 26.65 and 27.33. With two bullish formations in place, if the formations are confirmed (a rally above 30.60), it will be a "super" bullish sign. The stock still has a downside gap above between 28.26 and 29.33 that is likely targeted for closure this week. Of that occurs, ehter is no resistance until the $30 level is reached. Evidently, a close of the gap below at 26.65 would mean the gap at 26.01 would be targeted and that would defuse the bullishness of these two formation, meaning at 26.65 is a level that should no longer be seen to the downside. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.

AXP generated a spike up green weekly close and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 107.21 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock also closed above the 200-week MA, currently at 100.72, giving the bulls additional strength. The stock did close above a resistance level of some consequence on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday above 105.67. Nonetheless and using the intraweek chart, nothing of indicative consequence has yet been accomplished as the previous intraweek high at 108.12 was not broken. The chart formation presently in place is a triangle that is more bullish than bearish but is open to both sides in making a statement of consequence. A break above 109.03 would generate a bullish breakout, whereas a break below 93.71, a bearish breakdown. With the stock near the upper level and expected to go above last week's high this week, the chart favors the bulls. As such, any break above 108.12 this week will make the odds swing even further in the bull's corner while a drop below last week's low at 101.32 would shift the odds toward the bears. It is evidently a pivotal week.

BTZI generated an inside week but with a green weekly close, adding some positive odds to the bulls side. This was especially true when Harris announced at the debate that if Biden wins, they would look to make Marijuana legal in the U.S. By the same token, the stock traded totally sideways for the past 5 days between .027 and .034 and any break above or below that high and low would be short-term indicative. On a midterm basis, the .023 and .045 are strongly indicative. A break above or below that range will be highly indicative of direction. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CAT had a bullish week in which a new 29-month intraweek and weekly closing highs were made. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 159.39 is expected to be seen. There is decent intraweek resistance between 161.10 and 161.60 that if broken, would suggest a run to the all-time high at 173.24 would occur. This area of resistance between $159 and $161 was in place for 5 months back in 2018 and will require some fundamental positive or an index breakout to happen in order to be broken to the upside. It is considered a decent to perhaps even strong area of resistance. To the downside, the only area presently where support is found is at 142.73. The stock is showing a breakaway/runaway gap formation with the breakaway gap being between 151.25 and 151.28 and the runaway gap was made on Friday between 156.73 and 157.34. If the runaway gap is closed, the breakaway gap will be targeted. By the same token, if the stock gets above 161.60, that formation will be confirmed and it will make the $157 level into a new support base. It is evident that the stock is now at an important crux point as a failure here at the $161 level will strongly suggest a move back down to the $140 level over the next couple of months. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

CNX did not follow through to the downside (as expected) and did generate a reversal of short-term trend rally, having generated a 15.3% rally from the previous week's close to last week's high. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 10.97 is expected to be seen this week. Another positive that occurred is than on both the daily and weekly closing chart, the stock closed above the previous low daily close at 10.14 and above the previous low weekly close at 10.53, meaning that a failure signal against the bears was given. All of this also coming from a successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 9.01, seen the previous week. The correction is now over and another attempt at breaking the 200-week MA, currently at 11.79, is expected to happen now. Any weekly close above 12.00 would be a breakout of consequence and open the door wide for a rally up to the $15 level. Weekly close support of importance is now found at 9.78 but the daily chart now suggests the 10.14 level (on a daily closing basis) is unlikely to be broken any more. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CRON generated a 20% rally this past week and in the process, did generate a new buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed on Friday above the 2-month high weekly close at 5.67. One of the reasons for the rally was a statement from Harris at the Harris/Pence debate that Biden would legalize Marijuana if he won the election. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.06 will be seen this week. There is no resistance above until 6.64 is reached and that resistance is minor. The stock did generate a negative reversal day on Friday, given that it got up to the 200-day MA, currently at 6.18, and evidently the bulls don't yet have enough tangible ammunition to break that important line. As such, it is expected that a drop back down to around the 5.40 level will be seen this week. If that level of support holds up, a new attempt to break the MA line is likely to occur. There is a triple top on the daily closing chart at 7.02/7.08/7.08 that is a magnet if the MA line is broken and given that it is multiple high, it is likely to be broken. As such and after some early-in-the-week weakness, the probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG generated a big rally this past week, having moved up 37.6% from the previous low weekly close to last week's intraweek high. The stock did give a failure signal against the bears, having closed above .98 on the daily closing chart and above .92 on the weekly closing chart. Nonetheless, the bulls came up short on Friday when the stock closed at 1.10, which was $.01 below a decent weekly close resistance level "and" the 200-week MA, both at 1.11. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 1.33 than below last week's low at .80, though in reality and without any change in the fundamental picture, the probabilities actually favor an inside week. The levels to watch this week on a daily closing basis, are the 1.22 level to the upside and the 1.00 level to the downside. A close above or below either of those levels will tilt the probabilities to that side. Probabilities do favor the bulls given that the chart is fulfilled both to the upside and downside and a breakout from the 11-year downtrend now seems the most likely given the fundamentals of the company.

MRNA has now confirmed the failure signal against the bears, having closed on 2 of the last 3 weeks above the previous all-time high weekly close at 69.0. The stock made a new 9-week weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 73.92 will be seen this week. There is some intraweek resistance at 75.39 and again at 75.75 but above those levels there is no resistance until 83.85 is reached. Decent and not likely broken-at-this-time resistance is found at 87.00. Intraweek support is now pivotal at 67.25. On a fundamental basis, the company has now finished its recruitment of patients for Phase 111 of its clinical trials and is already seeking FDA approval of the vaccine. On rating company lowered its upside target to $93 but another rating company raised theirs to $136. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week.

NEM generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low but then closing green and on the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 63.95 will be seen this week. If that does occur, then last week's low at 60.77 will become the required/needed retest of the recent low at 59.28, suggesting the correction is over. The stock is still showing an open gap on the weekly chart between 64.34 and 64.54 that is likely to be target for closure this week. If that occurs (likely), there is no resistance above until the 68.55-68.95 level is reached. By the same token, there is a triple top at that area, meaning it is likely to be broken, suggesting that if all of that upside occurs, the target would be a rally up to 69.13 would occur. Last week's low at 60.77 is now pivotal support. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.

ORCL made a new all-time weekly closing high on Friday, breaking above the double top that had been built on the weekly closing chart at 59.80. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 61.38 is expected to be seen this week. The stock still has intraweek resistance as the all-time intraweek high is at 62.20, which was the reason I did not cover the shorts last week. Nonetheless the chart picture is bullish as the stock is showing a bullish flag formation that if 62.60 is broken, offers an upside objective of 66.12. There is intraweek resistance at 61.86 that is the target for this week. Thereafter, it will all depend on what the index market does. Pivotal support is found at 58.29 that if broken, the bull flag will disappear and a failure signal likely given as well. Probabilities favor the bulls but it does depend on what the index market does.

QQQ made a new 5-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 285.79 will be seen this week. There is no resistance above until the all-time high weekly close at 292.53 is reached (303.50 on a daily closing basis). The bulls are committed to making a new high or face the probabilities of a successful retest of the all-time highs and beginning of a downtrend. As such, any red weekly close at this time would be a negative. On a daily closing basis, any daily close below 282.25 would generate a failure signal on the breakout seen this past week and if confirmed, would suggest the rally is over. Probabilities favor the bulls.

RIO generated a rally and a green weekly close, as well as a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 63.14 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to close above the previous 9-year weekly closing high at 62.78, meaning that the bulls have not yet fully reestablished the uptrend. The bulls did work into the gap above, having moved up above the low of the gap area at 62.43 with a high at 63.14 this past week. Nonetheless, the gap is at 63.83 and more needs to be done this week to close the gap. I do believe that will occur but then there is also intraweek resistance at 65.20 that needs to be broken before the bulls gains all the confidence back. Intraweek support will now be found again at 60.18 and pivotal at 59.24 that if broken, would suggest a drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 54.81. Probabilities do favor the bulls though.

SRUTF continues to go lower, having made yet again a new intraweek low at .0253 as well as a new low weekly close at .0287. There is nothing positive about the action and it does suggest further downside is to be seen unless Biden wins the election and Marijuana is made legal across the United Stated. The company is in better shape fundamentally than it was 3 months ago but that has not helped. Trading interest remains as historically low levels, meaning there is little interest at this time in trading the stock. Nonetheless, this week is important because if further downside is seen, especially on a weekly closing basis, then it suggests that only an overall turnaround in the Cannabis industry would help the stocks. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

W generated an inside week but a red weekly close and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 291.81 will be seen this week. The red close means that the previous week's close at 305.36 is now a successful retest of the all-time weekly closing high at 340.66 and that suggests the uptrend is over. This signal is even more convincing given that the indexes not only moved up but broke out and yet the stock moved in the opposite direction. Minor intraweek support is found at 286.61 and again at 272.89. Both supports are short-term pivotal. Resistance is found at 313.03 and pivotal at 324.21. It is important to note that the supports mentioned above are on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, there is no support below until 234.65 and given that a successful retest of the high has now been given, generally that would mean that the recent low will be broken. Below 234.65, there is no support until the previous all-time weekly closing high at 169.83 is reached. Probabilities favor the bears and perhaps strongly, especially if the index fail to make new highs.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.10.

2) BTZI - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0315.

3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.79.

4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0287.

5) W - Averaged short at 86.61 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 296.19.

6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 158.94

7) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 285.71.

8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 106.34.

9) AU - Averaged long at 25.68 (4 mentions). Stop loss at 26.48. Stock closed on Friday at 27.94.

10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.742 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 62.82.

11) MRNA - Averaged long at 59.54 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 73.00.

12) RIO - Averaged long at 62.845 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 62.09.

13) CNX - Averaged long at 9.10 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.63.

14) ORCL - Shorted at 60.36. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 61.15.

15) AXP - Day traded short 2 times. Total profit of $276 per 100 shares minus commissions.

16) CAT - Day traded short 3 times. Total profit of $260 per 100 shares minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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