Issue #675 ![]() Jun 28, 2020 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Definite Signs of Correction now in Place!
DOW Friday closing price - 25015
The indexes generated a correction run down, having fallen anywhere from 2-3% in value this past week. The weakness seen was based on the increase in Corona Virus infections due to the reopening of the country, especially in areas where the CDC guidelines were not followed closely. The indexes all closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's lows (DOW at 24971, SPX at 3004, and NASDAQ and 9749) are expected to be seen this week.
The news of the increase of infections was the catalyst for the move down this past week but given that from a chart point of view some form of correction was expected to be seen due to the overbought condition and the lack of a previous correction during this 3 month rally up, questions remain as to whether this correction has additional legs to it or whether the worse is over and the uptrend will resume. This coming week will give us a clearer clue as to what to expect as important economic reports are scheduled. On Tuesday the Consumer Confidence report is due to come out, on Wednesday, the ISM Index and on Thursday the Jobs report. Friday, the market is closed for Independence Day Celebration. The Consumer Confidence number is always important as it shows the prevailing thoughts of traders on the state of the economy. It is expected to come out at 92 (versus last month's 86.6). On Thursday, the ISM Index comes out and it is expected to be 49.2 (versus last month's at 43.1), and on Friday the Jobs Report that is expected at 3.5m (versus last month's at 2.5m). As you can see, all reports are due to come out better than last month and therefore the onus will be on the shoulders of the bulls because if any of the numbers is lower, it will be a disappointment. With the virus continuing to affect the economy strongly, there is a higher chance of the reports disappointing than being better than expected.
From a chart point of view, all indexes are at (or close to) pivotal support levels. The DOW has intraweek support at 24680 from a low seen in June of last year that did not get broken until March of this year, as well as from the previous week's low at 24843, from which a rally to 26611 occurred. On a weekly closing basis, pivotal support is found at 24815. The SPX has intraweek support 2965 as that was the low the previous week and from which a rally back up to 3154 occurred. On a weekly closing basis, support is found between 3009 and 3025 as there were 3 high weekly closes seen between July and September and from which the bulls were unable to break to the upside for 3 months. The NASDAQ shows weekly close support at 9731 that is important as it was the previous all-time weekly closing high. A close below that level would generate a failure signal in the one index that has been "leading the parade" to the upside. On an intraweek basis though, the index has no support until 9403.
Based on the close on the lows of the week, it is expected that the indexes will be moving lower on an intraweek basis, meaning that both the DOW and the SPX will be watched closely at the beginning of the week. Any break below 24680 and below 2965 will be indicative of further downside. In addition and more importantly, such breaks would confirm the island formations that have been builty but not yet confirmed. It is not expected at this time that those levels will be broken at the beginning of the week, at least not until all the economic reports due out this week have reported and even then, only if the reports disappoint. Evidently, the NASDAQ will not be watched all that closely at the beginning of the week, given that there are no important intraweek support levels nearby. By the same token, on Thursday (end of the week), the NASDAQ will be the most important index to watch given than a red close by more than 36 points below Friday's close at 9757 will generate a failure signal and with the index being the leader, any failure signal there would be of consequence.
The increasing virus infections will keep the bears with a slight edge this week but it is unlikely that further worry about the increase will affect the traders before the economic reports are released. Simply stated, at this time those increases are likely already factored into the present prices seen on the close on Friday. The big question mark that has been in place for months, but because of the huge stimulus given by the Fed and the government has not been a major negative effect on the market, will now start to become more real as these economic numbers coming out now will more accurately reflect the problems and solutions so far given. By the same token, unless these reports are strongly disappointing (key word strongly), it is unlikely that the bulls will "give up the ship" before the earnings reports come out. Those earnings reports start coming out the 13th of the month. Nonetheless and with the Tech Industry biggies not starting to report until the last week of July, it will continue to be unlikely that any major sell off will occur until AMZN, AAPL, and GOOGL report. FB, AMZN, and GOOGL report between July 22 and 23rd and AAPL on August 4th.
From a chart point of view, one thing that remains in question is the fact that this rally has been straight up without any correction of consequence. This is abnormal, especially since the reasons for the rally (stimulus and Fed lowering of interest rates) have not yet clearly established as to how much it has helped or will help the economy through this once-in-a-lifetime economic malaise. This means that the bulls remain buyers without much of a chart safety net below and as such, extremely jittery. Volatility has remained high (VIX above 25) for this entire rally up and normally such a rally would have the VIX below 15 and even below 10. This does suggest that rallies cannot be depended on as any "small" changes in outlook can bring in a strong amount of selling interest. In fact, the U.S. China agreement has been fragile during this pandemic and it too is a factor that normally would not be as catalytic as it is now.
OIL generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 4-month high but then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 37.04 will be seen. On a weekly closing basis, oil is now showing a potential double top at 39.55/39.75 that will be confirmed as such if a weekly close below 36.26 occurs next Thursday or any weekly close below that level before a new high is made. If that occurs, the $40 level will become the new high area resistance for oil and drops back down to the $26-$30 level would then be expected over the next few weeks or months. Fundamentally, there have been no new changes to the production cuts agreement but it does need to be mentioned that last week, once again production outpaced demand and with the U.S. seemingly retracing on its opening of the economy, demand is not likely to pick up. On an intraweek basis, there is some minor support at 37.04 and then stronger and more pivotal at 34.36 that if broken, would suggest the $26-$30 level would be seen. Intraweek resistance is now found at 40.44. Probabilities favor the bears this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have given 2 mentions this week for adding positions to existing held stocks. Both are purchases in stocks that have little to do with the indexes and therefore not sensitive to what the market does.
PURCHASES
CNX Friday Closing Price - 8.33
CNX is in the natural gas industry and did get down to a low at 4.24 in March when the overall market bottomed out. Three weeks later, that low was tested successfully with a drop back down to 4.55 and then the stock got into a strong recovery rally over the following 3 weeks that took the stock back up to 14.19, which turned out to be a new 16-month high. The stock did successfully test that high a couple of weeks ago with a rally up 12.13 and since then has been under sell pressure, having dropped this past week to 8.18. Nonetheless, it needs to be mentioned that a week ago, 2 different rating companies gave the stock an upgrade in rating with upside targets of anywhere from $13-$15 and that was when the stock was trading around the $10 level, suggesting that at this price, the stock is a good purchase, at least from the rating company's point of view.
CNX has been in a downtrend since 2011 but reached a bottom in 2016 when it got down to 1.55. That all-time low was tested successfully in March with the 4.24 low but when turning a trend around, further testing of the previous lows is usually needed before it can be said the trend down has fully stopped. The rally from 4.24 to 14.19 means that the stock appreciated over 300% in value but with the now twice failed attempt to get over the 200-week MA, currently at 12.20, another retest of support is expected to occur. This move down is likely to be that.
CNX shows no support below until the $7.00 level is reached and that would generally be the downside target for purchase. Nonetheless, the 200-day MA is currently at 8.15 and the stock has been above that line for the past 2 months, meaning that the downtrend has been clearly broken on that MA line. With the upgrades suggesting that the company is fundamentally sound at these price levels, it seems unlikely the line will be broken convincingly, which in turn would put the stock back into a downtrend. As such, it makes sense that the bulls would be buyers at the line, though on an intraday basis the line could be broken and the stock see lower prices. On a daily closing basis though, it is unlikely the stock can generate a confirmed daily close below that line.
CNX shows some daily and weekly close support at $8 and much stronger at $7, meaning that the downside risk from Friday's close in not likely to be more than $1 to $1.50. With the 200-week MA at 12.15, the upside objective/profit potential is anywhere from $4-$5 (or more according to the rating agencies), meaning the trade offers the kind of risk/reward ratio that is worthwhile taking.
Purchases of CNX below last week's low at 8.18 and using a 6.65 stop loss and having at least a $12.15 objective offers at least a 2.6-1 risk/reward ratio. By the same token, if the stock holds around the $8 level and the rating agencies objective of $15 is reached, the risk/reward would be 4.5-1 (or better according to the entry point).
My rating on the trade using the parameters stated above is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
MRNA Friday Closing Price - 61.27
MRNA is the company that has promised to have a vaccine for the Corona Virus before the end of the year. This past week, on Thursday the company announced a deal for collaboration with another company for manufacturing and distributing the vaccine in great quantities, meaning that if the vaccine is proven to be successful, the company will be able to gain strong economic success from it.
Over the past 3 months, MRNA has almost quintupled in value, having gone up from an 18.30 low on the second week of March to 87.00 seen 6 weeks ago. The rapid appreciation of price without any successful retest of the low saw the stock correct back down to 46.13 over a 2 week period of time. Since then the stock has gone up to 67.00, which was the high made last week. The stock did generate a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high but then closing in the red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 58.51 will be seen this week. The failure to follow through to the upside when the new multi-week high was made this past week, suggests that a retest of the May successful retest at 46.13 is likely to be seen, with the prospect of strengthening the support below. With the fundamental picture presently bullish, this retest is likely to be short and swift.
From a chart point of view, MRNA has built some minor to decent daily close support at 58.23 that is unlikely to be broken due to the fundamental strength. As such, any intraweek drop below last week's low at 58.51 is a good reason to buy. On an intraweek basis, there is support at 55.36 and at 56.63, neither of which should be seen but the latter could be approached. Resistance is now found at 67.00 and again at 68.49 but above that, there is open air until 87.00 is reached.
Purchases of MRNA below 58.51 and using a stop loss at 55.26 and having an objective of 87.00 will offer an 8-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AU made a new 7-year intraweek and weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 29.31 will be seen this week. There is no resistance above until the $35 level is reached. Support will now be found at the previous high daily close at 27.75. On an intraweek basis, support is found at 27.89. Probabilities favor the bulls. AXP Generated a new 5-week low and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 92.45 will be seen this week. There is an open gap on the weekly chart at 91.43 that is expected to be closed this week. On the daily chart, the stock is still showing a breakaway/runaway gap formation with the runaway gap between 89.95 and last week's low at 92.45 that if closed, would suggest the breakaway gap down between 83.39 and 85.92 will be targeted. The probabilities of the weekly gap at 91.43 being closed are high but the probabilities decline substantially regarding the breakaway/runaway gap formation being closed, at least not until the company reports earnings on July 24th. As such, if the stock does get down to 91.43 this week but not down to 89.95, consideration should be given to taking profits and looking to re-short on a rally. By the same token, if the stock gets down to 89.95, holding the shorts for further downside would be the recommended thing to do. Resistance will now be minor to perhaps decent at the $100 demilitarized zone. Probabilities favor the bears this week. CAT generated an inside week with no rally above the previous week's high as was expected to happen. The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 120.80 will be seen this week. More importantly, the stock closed below the 200-week MA, currently at 125.60, which keeps the stock on an overall bearish trend. In addition, the stock has now closed below the 200-day MA, currently at 128.74 for the past 8 days, also meaning the bears at this time have the edge. There is recent but pivotal intraweek support at 118.01 that if broken would strongly suggest a drop down to 111.75-112.06 (114.06 on a weekly closing basis) which is an area that has been strongly pivotal for the past 2 years. A drop down to that area seems likely to occur but thereafter it will depend on the index market and its own earnings report that is due out on July 28th. It is important to note that like with many stocks, there is a breakaway/runaway gap formation between 107.99 and 111.47 and between 114.16 and 115.95 that if the runaway gap is closed, the breakaway gap will be targeted. There is minor but evident intraweek support at 117.25, meaning that this week the area between 117.25 and 118.01 will be watched closely by the traders. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 124.83 that if broken would give the bulls a bit of an edge short-term for a rally. Probabilities favor the bears this week. Nonetheless, there are a lot of important support levels to watch for clues as to what the traders are thinking. CNX confirmed the failure signal given the previous week and closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.18 will be seen this week. The chart has weakened but is reaching the 200-day MA, currently at 8.15, which should act as decent support on a closing basis. I am giving a buy mention for the stock this week (see above). CRON generated a failure signal on the recent breakout, having closed below 6.26 on Friday. The stock closed on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 6.00 will be seen this week. The stock made a new 28-month low at 4.00 in March and that low was subsequently successfully tested with a low at 4.62 in May. It seems highly probable given the inability of the recent breakout to keep the stock moving higher that the traders want to again establish the effectiveness of the support levels below with another retest of them. This does open the door for a drop all the way down to the $5.00 level if 5.70 is broken. By the same token, there is clear intraweek support at 6.00 so if there is no follow through to the downside this week, the worst will be over and this break will be negated on Friday. Probabilities do favor the bears though and further waiting for the industry and the stock to start an uptrend. Pivotal resistance is found between 6.92 and 7.04, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. Seems likely that a $5-$7 trading range is what will be seen for the next 3 weeks. ENG generated another non-eventful week on an intraweek and weekly closing basis. The bulls have been unable to make any new inroads to the upside but the bears have been equally failing to make any inroads to the downside. More of the same is expected to be seen this week. The stock continues to flirt with the 200-week MA, currently at 1.13, having been above the line on 4 of the last 8 weeks. Any confirmed close above the line, especially if above the previous high weekly close at 1.19 that occurred last August (the only time the line has been broken during the last 3 years), would signal the beginning of a bull rally of consequence. Any weekly close below .94 would give the edge back to the bears. Probabilities favor more of the same. MCIG continues to trade in the .0225 and .035 area that it has been in for the past 15 weeks. The trading ranges are minute as there seems to be no interest in selling or buying at tis time. There is no sign yet that the traders are ready to break above or below that trading range at this time. MRNA (see mention above for detail). NEM continued the upward recovery climb, having generated the 3rd green weekly close in a row. Nonetheless, nothing of consequence occurred as no resistance or support levels were broken. The stock did close on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 60.09 will be seen this week. One small positive thing that did occur is that the stock built a short-term bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 55.24 to 60.09 and the flag being the 5-day trading range down to 57.47. A break above 60.09 projects an objective for this week of 62.32. The stock is showing a breakaway/runaway gap formation to the downside with the runaway gap being between 62.75 and 61.75 and the breakaway gap is between 65.51 and 65.04. In addition, the weekly chart also shows a gap between 61.75 and 62.30. It is clear that closure of those gaps are the objective of the bulls this week. Evidently, the bears are expecting the stock to get up to the flag objective of 62.32 and if it does and the runaway gap is closed, further upside to 65.51 is likely to occur. As such, the bears will try to put resistance between 61.75 and 62.30 and prevent the gaps from being closed. Support has now been established at last week's low at 57.47 that if broken would weaken the chart. With Gold having broken out this past week, the probabilities favor the bulls. QQQ generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time high and then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 239.68 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, there is no support below until 231.47 is reached but on a daily closing basis, the previous all-time high daily close at 236.98 will act as support. If broken and confirmed, a failure signal will be given that will bring new selling interest. Any intraweek break below 231.47 will generate a strong round of profit taking and new selling interest. With the earnings reports of the big Tech companies not due out for another 4 weeks, it is unlikely at this time that the intraweek support levels will be broken. Nonetheless, a drop down to that level (or close by) is a high probability. Evidently the 236.98 level on a closing basis is pivotal during the week. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 245.59 and stronger at 247.82. Probabilities favor the bears but only for a drop down to around the $232 level. Consideration should be given to covering shorts there. SCCO generated a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's high (as expected) but then closing red. Nonetheless, this stock showed some resilience this week as the trading range was small (compared to other weeks) and the close was in the middle of the week's trading range, leaving the door open on a 50/50 basis for a rally above last week's high at 38.58 or below last week's low at 36.97. On a negative note though, the stock now shows 3 weeks in a row of closes below the 200-week MA, currently at 38.16, and that does give the bears the edge as far as the action to be seen this week. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 35.45 that if broken, would likely cause a drop down to the 32.00-32.60 level, given there is no established support between those two levels. To the possible benefit of the bulls, the stock is showing a still open gap above between 38.63 and 38.58 that is likely the reason the stock showed resilience this past week. Closure of the gap would not be a reason for the bulls to celebrate but non-closure of the gap, followed by another gap and then a break below 35.45 would be a bear statement. On another positive note for the bulls, the stock remains above the 200-day MA, currently at 35.85, and has stayed above the line for the past 6 weeks and is the reason the stock has not yet shown any strong weakness. Pivotal resistance is found at 40.31. Probabilities slightly favor the bears but the key word is "slightly". Overall though, the bulls will need something positive to resume the uptrend. W generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time high at 221.54 and then closing red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 196.48 will be seen this week. It does need to be mentioned that the fundamental objective of one of the rating companies following the stock was $222 and it can now be said that objective has been reached, suggesting a correction to the major uptrend that started 3 months ago from $21 is to be seen. Minimum downside objective is the previous all-time high daily close at 188.05 but if broken, the previous all-time weekly closing high at 169.68 would become a target. It does need to be mentioned that on an intraweek basis and on the weekly chart, there is absolutely no support found until 144.51 is reached and a drop down to somewhere close is a possibility, given the volatile nature of the stock. The earnings report is not due out until August 4th, so all trading now is likely to be technical and chart oriented. Immediate and short-term pivotal support is found at last week's low at 196.48 that is likely to get broken. Below that, there is no intraweek support whatsoever until 167.01, suggesting that a break below 196.48 is likely to bring a drop down to at least the $180 level (if not lower). Short-term pivotal resistance will be found at Friday's high 213.59, if and when the stock goes below Friday's low at 201.01 on Monday. In fact, if the stock does that, the 213.59 high will become a successful retest of the all-time high and strongly suggest a correction has begun. Probabilities favor the bears.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.00. 2) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0252. 3) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.00. 4) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0397. 5) W - Averaged short at 97.47 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 201.94. 6) CAT - Averaged short at 109.616 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 122.39. 7) QQQ - Shorted at 236.38. Averaged short at 207.456 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 240.22. 8) AXP - Averged short at 93.953 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 93.42. 9) AU - Averaged long at 23.79 (3 mentions). Stop loss at 26.48. Stock closed on Friday at 28.63. 10) NEM - Averaged long at 60.0125 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 59.34. 11) MRNA - Averaged long at 55.395 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 51.69 on a daily stop close only. Stock closed on Friday at 61.28. 12) QQQ - Shorted at 250.57, at 244.72 and at 245.75 and covered shorts respectively at 248.67, at 243.85 and at 239.92. Total profit on day trade of $860 per 100 shares minus commissions.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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