Issue #666 ![]() April 12, 2020 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bulls Stretching the Limits?
DOW Friday closing price - 23719
The indexes generated the biggest 1-week rally since 1974, having moved up over 10% in price this past week. There was no tangible positive news to support the rally but the potential for the curve in infections reaching a peak in the next 1-2 weeks was one of the factors in the rally. The other, was the Fed announcement on Monday morning before the opening of the market of an additional $2.3 trillion in loans has been made available to businesses to overcome the economic ill of the virus. With this move, the Fed has done everything they can to economically support the market. The indexes all closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs (DOW at 24008, SPX above 2574 and the NASDAQ at 8227) are expected to be seen this week. In addition, all indexes generated a failure signal of the bear market signal that was given 6 weeks ago, having closed above the 20% level that signals a bear market (DOW at 23654, SPX at 2714 and NASDAQ at 7870) and if the bulls are able to confirm the failure signal this next Friday, it will give the bulls some additional ammunition for further recovery.
Nonetheless and on the other side of the coin, the NASDAQ reached a level of intraweek, daily and weekly close resistance of consequence that will provide clear and well defined resistance levels from previous highs (not previous lows) and that is a stumbling block to the bulls, given that such resistance areas normally need tangible news to break above and that kind of news is not available at this time. In addition, the DOW closed on Friday exactly at the 200-week MA, suggesting that selling will be seen simply because of that. The SPX and the NASDAQ also find themselves close to the runaway gap on the weekly chart that is going to be very difficult to close without tangible positive news. In the SPX that gap is at 2901 and in the NASDAQ it is at 8375 and with the NAZ high last week being at 8227 (only 148 points from the level), any further upside, like seen last week, will close the runaway gap and that would be a bullish statement. Such a close is unlikely to be seen at this time, especially considering that there is decent intraweek resistance at 8243 and more at 8339.
On a daily "and" weekly closing basis, there is decent resistance in the NASDAQ between 8164 and 8196 and then again at 8330 and in the SPX between 2786 and 2813. Simply stated, the bulls need tangible positive economic news to break these established resistance levels and that is just not available now, or even from a release of those kinds of reports that could potentially be better than expected not due out for another 3 weeks. The Fed at this time, is powerless to do anything more. For the past 3 weeks, the indexes have rallied on smoke and mirrors with the bull traders feeding on the negative feelings about the economy due to the virus. There were no established intraweek or upside daily/weekly close resistance levels of any consequence where the bears could mount a cooperative attack on the bulls until now. Now and for the first time since the rally began, those previously established levels of resistance exist, are copious, and unlikely to get broken without tangible positive news.
To all of this and from a chart perspective and more importantly, without a positive fundamental change in favor of the bulls, the minimum that is usually seen before a stronger rally (rather than a bounce) can occur, is for a retest of the lows, which follow the strongest ever drop seen in the history of the stock market, to occur. No such retest, or even a half-hearted one, has occurred. As such and if the resistance levels above hold up (likely), a retest of the lows is the next probable action to be seen. All the indexes presently are showing a breakaway/runaway gap to the upside on the daily chart, with the DOW's runaway gap being between 21447 and 21693, the SPX between 2538 and 2554, and in the NASDAQ between 7518 and 7617. Even in a normal bull market, such a formation is usually tested, meaning those levels are likely to be seen and perhaps as early as this week. This means that a drop of approximately 6% should be expected at this time.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor to decent resistance between 24858 and 25020, the SPX now shows minor to decent resistance at 2813 and the NASDAQ at 8264 and at 8339.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows very minor support at 20735 and then nothing until 18917. Decent support is found at the low of the move down at 18213. The SPX shows minor support at 2447, decent at last year's low at 2346 and then nothing until 2280. Decent support is found at the low of the move down at 2197. The NASDAQ shows minor support at 7200 and then nothing until 6686. Decent support is found at the low of the move down at 6631.
The reality in the charts is that there is no support of consequence below until those gaps are closed, with the exception of the SPX, whose last year's low at 2346 is decent. Last week, the move up was basically one way (up) and no supports were built other than intraday. By the same token, with none of the other indexes showing like support, it is unlikely that low in that index will hold the entire market up. The fundamental news continues to be negative and other than Retail Sales and the weekly unemployment numbers, there are no reports of consequence scheduled for this week. If the resistance levels hold up, it is highly likely that a strong rush of selling will be seen and those downside objectives or supports likely to be reached by the end of the week. As such, it is likely that Monday, or at the latest Tuesday and if the resistance levels are not broken, that the indexes will be heading down with strength and speed.
There is a level to watch in the intraday chart of the NASDAQ and that is 7881. If that level of support is broken, the bears will regain at least short-term control of the market. That same level of pivotal intraday support is found in the SPX at 2657. Probabilities do favor the bears this week though at the beginning of the week the bulls could still manage to rally the indexes slightly above last week's highs.
OIL bulls were unable to generate any follow through to the upside after the previous week's strength and gave a failure signal on Friday, having closed on Friday below the daily close breakout point at 25.25. If that failure is confirmed on Monday with another close below 25.25, the recent intraweek, daily and weekly closing lows will likely be broken. The bulls became disappointed when the OPEC deal regarding cuts in production was lower than anticipated and leaving an oversupply still in place. Oil closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 22.57 is expected to be seen this week. It is evident that agreement did very little to cut enough into the oversupply that is presently being seen and therefore not giving the bulls enough ammunition to continue the rally seen the previous week. One additional negative now in place is that the weekly close breakdown point at 29.44 has now been successfully tested with the previous week's close at 28.34, meaning that the probabilities now favor more downside below the recent weekly close low at 21.51. The longer term support is found at the $20 level, meaning that the probabilities now favor oil making a new intraweek and weekly closing lows below the recent low at 19.27 and the weekly closing low at 21.51. This does suggest that the intraweek support from 2002 around the $17 will be tested and a weekly close around the $20 demilitarized zone occur. By the same token, this coming week is important because if the bulls can generate a green weekly close next Friday, then a successful retest of the recent low will have occurred, which will give the bulls new chart ammunition to move back up to the $30 level, and perhaps even more. Nonetheless, the probabilities do not favor that scenario occurring and if a new weekly closing low below 21.51 occurs next Friday, the 25.41 level will become new and decent weekly close resistance and oil trade between $20 and $25 for a few weeks or perhaps even a couple of months. Any 2 daily closes in a row above 25.25 this week would give the bulls a chance to overturn this short-term negative evaluation. Probabilities favor the bears.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week as short positions are the only possible mentions this week and already the portfolio is full of short positions. Nonetheless and for those that are not already short, all presently held short positions remain sales and given that they are above the original entry points, those should be shorted this week and the already mentioned stop losses used as well as the downside objectives mentioned still viable. Nonetheless, I am leaving the purchase mentions given last week as they are still viable if and when the stocks get down to those desired levels mentioned. It is highly unlikely though, that those levels will be reached this week. By the same token, both buy mentions do have upside objectives given and if those upside objectives are reached, sales of those mentions can be considered. I will update that on the message board if it occurs.
As always though, I am monitoring the trading every day and if some opportunity presents itself for a trade, even if it is simply a day trade, I will mention it in the message board.
ROKU Friday Closing Price - 92.45
Purchases of ROKU between 79.70 and 80.30 and using a stop loss at 74.65 and having an objective of 98.80 will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
TCEHY Friday Closing Price - 49.47
Purchases of TCEHY below 40.30 and using a stop loss at 38.64 and having a $50 demilitarized zone objective offers a minimum 5-1 risk/reward ratio. My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AU generated a new 8-week green weekly close and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21.87 will be seen this week. There is decent daily close resistance between 22.14 and 22.65 and then nothing until the 7-year high daily close at 23.50. On an intraweek basis, there is copious resistance between 23.26 and 23.85 that can be considered multiple highs and likely to be broken. This is even more evident on the monthly closing chart that shows 4 monthly closes between 21.91 and 22.75, which strongly suggests that the area will get broken and likely sooner rather than later. Such a break to the upside should be used to take profits as the exact opposite occurred a few weeks ago occurred when the triple bottom at $17 got broken and the stock dropped down to the $12 level. That break to the upside could occur this week but probabilities do not favor it happening now but in a couple of weeks and then only after Gold breaks the resistance at $1797. The stock has been one of the laggards among Gold stocks and as such, should be the first stock to take profits on when the time comes. Support on a daily closing basis and that should no longer be broken is found at the 200-day MA, currently at 19.80. This is also strengthened by the fact there is a breakaway/runaway gap formation in place with the runaway gap being between 19.44 and 20.25. Simply stated, closure of the runaway gap will weaken the chart at this time. The bulls are committed to new multi-year highs now and anything less with a drop down to 19.44 would be a decent negative. Probabilities favor the bulls. AXP made a new 3-week high last week but the bulls were still unable to break above the most recent intraweek high at 99.69, having gone up last week to 97.85. This is likely indicative as the indexes have been successful in breaking the same highs made 3 weeks ago. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, there is also a second resistance level at 100.08 that strengthens that resistance area considerably and with the 200-week MA currently at 96.60, for all of this resistance area to be broken, a strong positive fundamental change would need to occur (unlikely). The stock generated a gap on Friday between 93.00 and 93.46 but given that it is a 3rd gap, it is likely to be closed on Monday, especially since the stock closed near the lows of the day on Friday and further downside below Friday's low at 93.46 is expected to be seen. There is no support below whatsoever until minor support at 81.11 is reached. By the same token and as seen in the index market, the runaway gap of a breakaway/runaway gap formation is found between 87.42 and 84.25 and that level should give some support until the runaway gaps in the indexes are closed as well. If that does occur, the breakaway gap at 76.66 will be targeted for closure. The chart continues to lean strongly to the downside with the $100 demilitarized zone as a pivot point resistance to the upside. Probabilities favor the bears. CAT generated another green weekly close (3rd in a row) and did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 129.60 is expected to occur. By the same token, the stock generated a negative reversal day on Friday, having made the weeks high and then closing red and near the lows of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside and below Friday's low at 123.15. There is no intraweek support below until 118.74/119.03 is reached and the probabilities favor that scenario of a drop down to that price before any new buying interest appears. There is an open gap at 116.84 that is a magnet that is not supported by an original breakaway gap and therefore likely to be closed. If that occurs, the next support level of consequence is at 111.75. if that level is reached, last week's low at 118.13 would have been broken and a sign that a top to the rally has occurred would be given. It is important to note that the intraweek resistance is minor at 129.56 but will gain some strength if the stock gets below Friday's low on Monday. It also needs to be mentioned that the 200-week MA is currently at 123.65 and given that the stock did close slightly above that level on Friday, another green close next Friday would confirm the negation of that break. The 200-day MA is currently at 131.20 and all of these levels of resistance, as well as the straight up rally from the recent lows, make this entire area into decent resistance and unlikely to be broken without a positive fundamental change. Probabilities favor the bears with the only question at this time is whether the stock will first get above last week's high or start to fail before that happens. CRON had an inside week but generated a green weekly close, meaning that the previous week's close at 5.51 is now a successful retest of that 26-month low weekly close support that was broken 5 weeks ago but then negated the following week. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 5.57 than above last week's high at 6.23. Nonetheless, on an intraweek basis that would be a possible positive for the bulls as the recent 4.00 low has not yet been tested on an intraweek basis and any drop below last week's low would take on the possibility of being just that. Intraweek support is found at 5.12 and at 4.79, one of which is likely to be seen this week. By the same token, the bulls need to once again close next Friday above 5.51 or new weakness would reenter the stock. Daily close resistance is found at 6.32 that if broken and confirmed, would suggest the downside is over, especially if that occurs after an intraweek drop below 5.57 is seen this week. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. ENG generated a 2nd in-a-row inside week but this time a green weekly close occurred. Nonetheless, neither the inside week or the green weekly close accomplished any new clarity in the stock, keeping the stock is the same scenario as mentioned the week before. The double low at .51/.49 has not yet been successfully tested, meaning that a drop below the previous week's low is still a likely scenario. Last week's low was at .64. Nonetheless, there is minor to decent daily close support at .68 that should hold up. Pivotal daily close resistance is found at .80, meaning that using the daily closing chart, the .68 and .80 levels are pivotal short-term support and resistance this week and whichever one is broken will likely generate at least an $.08-$.010 move in that direction. Based on the positive earnings report, I would say probabilities favor the bulls. FNV generated another green weekly close (the 4th in a row) and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 115.95 will be seen this week. With Gold likely to continue higher, the probabilities remain high that the stock will continue higher as well. One negative that has affected the stock more so than other gold stocks is that FNV is a company that makes more profits off of loaning money to Gold producers than what makes off of Gold appreciation in value and with interest rates now lowered by the Fed to close to zero, the stock has lost its leadership in the Gold area. This does suggest that even if Gold continues higher (likely), that the stock itself may not be able to break its all-time intraweek high at 122.65. The chart does suggest that the stock is likely to get up to the $117-$120 level if Gold continues higher but consideration should be given to at least taking partial profits on such a rally. This is especially true given that there is no close buy support until 103.39 is reached and any failure to make a new all-time high at this time (this week or next) would mean a drop back down to that level would likely occur and that would mean about an 11% drop from a $117 high. Probabilities favor the bulls but because this stock depends more in loans than in Gold, taking profits should be considered. MCIG generated another non-eventful inside week (the 4th in a row), having traded in a very narrow $.005 trading range. The stock did generate a green weekly close after 6 red weekly closes in a row but given that no resistance levels were broken, it is an uneventful occurrence. As such, I have no new comments this weekend regarding short-term (up or down) at this time. Nonetheless, the .25 level remains a very strong pivotal support level that in effect should not be seen again as it would mean a triple bottom would be built, that normally would be broken. The stock is showing short-term pivotal resistance at .4 that if broken would confirm the double low and give the bulls' new ammunition. With CRON having what seems to be a pivotal week ahead, the same can be said about the stock. Chart parameters remain clearly defined at .25 (support) and .4 (resistance). Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. NEM made a new 8-year high and did it in a spike up fashion and breaking a minor to decent intraweek spike high at 57.05 from September 2012. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 57.70 is expected to be seen. The stock is showing open air until 61.84 is reached but from that level and up to 64.62 the resistance is decent and copious with the stock spending a total of 6 months in that area back in 2006, 2010 and 2012. Gold would need to break above $1797 and move to the all-time high at $1911 in order for this resistance area to be broken as well and the stock head up to the all-time high at 71.54. As such, consideration to taking profits or at least partial profits should be given on any rally above $62. Daily close support is now found at the previous multi-year high at 52.35. Probabilities favor the bulls. QQQ generated a new 5-week high and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 203.23 will be seen this week. The stock has been outperforming its index, having broken above the resistance seen at 195.55, the same resistance at 8336 that has so far stopped the NASDAQ. Nonetheless, the stock did get up to the 200-day MA, currently at 200.30, on Wednesday and the bulls were not able to generate much upside thereafter, having closed at 200.57 on Thursday and at 200.86 on Friday and therefore and even though technically the MA was broken, no bull statement has been made. The stock did close in the lower half of the day's trading range on Friday and the first course of action for the week is to the downside and below Friday's low at 199.03. If that occurs and the stock closes red and below 200.30 on Monday, further downside would then be expected as there is no support below until 192.11 is reached. Just like with the index, the stock is showing a breakaway/runaway gap formation with the runaway gap between 187.07 and 189.16, meaning that if the stock closes red on Monday, a drop down near the $189 level will likely occur. There is pivotal intraweek resistance at 204.30 that if broken, would suggest further upside is to come. Nonetheless and in spite of the stock outperforming the index, the index is still the "daddy" and the stock will follow the index rather than the other way around. As such, the 204.30 level is pivotal resistance at the 192.11 level pivotal support. Probabilities very slightly favor the bears. SRUTF continued the now 50-week strong downtrend, having made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing low on Friday. The bulls have been absent from the stock every step of the way during the last 50 weeks and no end is in sight. Nonetheless, with CRON likely to give some signal either this week or the next, it is likely that the stock will somewhat follow what CRON does. At this time though, there is nothing even close to possibly positive with the stock. No other comment possible at this time.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at ..78. 2) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0307. 3) FNV - Averaged long at 87.558 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 113.69. 4) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.79. 5) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.48. 6) NEM - Averaged long at 40.88 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 57.31. 7) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .0605. 8) W - Covered shorts at 65.11. Shorted at 48.01. Loss on the trade of $1710 per 100 shares plus commissions. 9) CAT - Shorted at 120.95 and again at 127.11. Averaged short at 115.342 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 125.03. 10) QQQ - Averaged short at 192.995 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 200.86. 11) AXP - Shorted at 97.47. Averged short at 97.85 (2 mentions) No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 94.82. 12) IBM - Shorted at 113.55. Covered shorts at 113.48. Profit on the trade of $7 per 100 shares minus commissions.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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