Issue #659
February 23, 2020
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Indexes Continue to Slip with the Corona Virus Still a Problem. No Definitive Change Has Occurred Though!

DOW Friday closing price - 28992
SPX Friday closing price - 3337
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 9576

For the 3rd time in the last 6 weeks the indexes generated a red weekly close and that has not occurred since Sep/Oct of last year, meaning there are now definite signs that the "runaway freight train" has paused or even possibly come to a full stop. The SPX and the NASDAQ both generated a negative reversal week, having made new all-time intraweek highs but then closing red and near the lows of the week, suggesting more downside is likely to be seen this week (below 3328 and 9532).

Using the chart of the NASDAQ (the lead index), this type of negative reversal has only been seen 4 times since the index made a new all-time high above the 2000 high at 5132, with the first one happening in June 2017 bringing about a 4.2% correction, the second one occurring July 2017 and bringing about a 4.4% correction, the third one in March 2018 and bringing about an 11.2% correction and the fourth one occurring 6 weeks ago and it bringing about a 3.1% correction. Using these same percentages and using the high made last week in the index at 9838, the minimum drop to be seen would be 9533 and the max would be 8736.

It does need to be noted that in none of these 4 instances where a negative reversal was seen, did the NASDAQ break the low of the previous correction, meaning that if this is just a correction and not a top to the uptrend, the most recent low of the previous correction at 9088 will not be broken, giving the traders a definite dependable support level from which to buy the dip with a stop loss in mind. In the 2 corrections mentioned above where the previous low was tested successfully, the index dropped to either 1.6% or 2.4% from where the previous low was located and that suggests that on this occasion, a drop down to somewhere between 9233 and 9306 will be seen before the bulls step in to buy again. This does suggest this correction will be somewhere between 5.5 and 6.2%.

Then again and looking at the reasons for this correction (the Corona virus), it is impossible at this time to evaluate the potential economic damage of it, meaning that the traders are flying blind at this time. Evidently, if an antidote is found and distributed immediately, the damage will be much less than if it continues unabated. To that, I have no answers right now. Nonetheless, the traders will use the chart and the previous intraweek low at 9088 to make decisions on the potential severity of it.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor to decent resistance at 29398 and pivotal at the all-time high at 29568. The SPX now shows pivotal resistance at 3393 and the NASDAQ shows pivotal resistance at 9838.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows pivotal support at 28169. The SPX shows short term pivotal support at 3313/3317 and the longer term pivotal support at 3214. The NASDAQ shows minor short term pivotal support at 9493 and longer term pivotal at 9088.

This coming week there are a few possibly short-term pivotal economic reports with the first one being the Consumer Confidence number that comes out on Tuesday. It is expected to come in at 133 (above last month's 132) but is likely to come in lower as the Corona virus was not yet a problem 4 weeks ago. A lower number would bring in some selling but not likely all that much, but if it comes in under 120 (the low for the past year), it would be a strong negative catalyst. On Thursday, the Durable Goods orders come out and they are expected to be at -1.3. This is not likely to be a catalytic report for any side. On Friday, personal income and spending and PCE prices come out but they too, are not likely to have much impact. As such, it is only the Consumer Confidence number that is important this week.

There is nothing at this time, other than an immediate and total resolution of the Corona virus, that can help the bulls this week. Traders are closely watching the charts as there is nothing clear regarding the fundamental support of the market, meaning that with the charts pointing to further downside this week, it is doubtful the bulls will step up to buy without either some fundamental resolution (unlikely) or some chart support, of which there is little of nearby.

In addition and using the DOW and the SPX charts, there are some magnets below that are likely to be used by the traders this week. Both of the indexes had a breakaway/runaway chart formation but the DOW on Friday closed the runaway gap at 28904 with a drop down to 28892, leaving the breakaway gap at 28630/28696 to be closed this week. The SPX has its runaway gap between 3313 and 3306 and the breakaway gap between 3268 and 3280 but with the DOW having closed its runaway gap, the probabilities are high the breakaway gap will be closed and with that kind of sell pressure likely to be seen, it will be very difficult for the SPX to not follow suit. What this suggests is that the SPX will be down this week (or within the next 2 weeks) at least 2% lower from Friday's close. This is now a high probability unless positive fundamental news comes out (unlikely).

With all the chart data presented above and the traders following charts at this time, this entire scenario has a high probability of occurring this week and possibly spilling over to next week. This scenario does not yet change the bull trend but it does mean the runaway freight trading is at least paused at this time. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader of the market but this week it is the other 2 indexes that will be watched given that the pivotal support in the NAZ is still very far away and not likely to be in play at this time. Probabilities favor the bears this week.


GOLD made a new 6-year high this past week and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at $1645 will be seen this week. There is no resistance above until "minor" resistance is reached at $1694 and then "minor" again at $1730. Nonetheless and using the monthly chart, there is no resistance above until $1794 is reached. In addition and also using the monthly chart, Gold broke out of a bullish flag formation in January that offers an $1810 objective to be reached within the next 2 months (March and April). Getting to that level is possible given that the resistance at the $1790 level is a triple top on the monthly chart at $1790, $1794, and $1797 that if seen again, would likely be broken. Multiple tops generally are broken. Nonetheless, with absolutely no resistance until $1694 is reached, Gold should be moving up an additional $50 this week or within the next 2 weeks. On a daily and weekly closing basis, support is now found at $1582 that if broken and confirmed would put an end to the breakout. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week.

OIL generated a failure signal against the bears on the weekly closing chart, having closed above the recent weekly close support at 52.51 that pushed oil down to the psychological support at $50 with an intraweek drop down to 49.3. Oil closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 54.50 will be seen this week. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 54.55 and then nothing until minor to perhaps decent at 57.47. The failure signal against the bears still needs to be confirmed next Friday with a close above that level again but with Gold moving up and the indexes moving down, it does suggest that confirmation will occur. Intraweek support will now be found between 52.13 and 52.39 and a bit stronger at 50.99. Nonetheless and on a daily and weekly closing basis, oil should no longer close below 52.45 as that would once again weaken the chart. Using the monthly closing chart though, it seems that oil might be in a $50-$60 trading range for the next few months if not for the rest of the year. Probabilities favor the bulls this week with the 57.47 objective, to be reached within the next 1-3 weeks.


Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week as chasing stocks down with short positions does not offer a good risk/reward ratio and buying stocks at this time is not suggestive that this is the right time to do that yet. Nonetheless and like I did last week, individual stocks can be purchased or sold depending on their own chart and fundamental factors. If I find one of those by having someone bring it to me, I will mention it. By the same token and having a full diversified portfolio at this time, I did not do any research into finding new trades this weekend. I am presently happy with the held stocks I have and will not consider new ones until I liquidate some of what I have, which could be either this week or next. For this week though, I am not looking to trade anything.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA did not follow through to the upside as anticipated and ended up having an inside week with a red close and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 52.01 will be seen this week. This unexpected action is likely to simply be a retest of the break above the 200-day MA, currently at 51.71, in order to confirm the breakout before additional buying is seen. The 6% correction seen from the high seen 2 weeks ago at 55.00 is normal after a 22% rally seen the previous 3 weeks with the rally from 43.00 to 55.00. A retest of the MA line, is also normal and even healthy for the bulls. There is decent intraweek support at 51.17 and decent weekly close support at the 50.93 level, which was the pivot point that when broken to the upside took the stock to 64.38 and when broken to the downside took the stock down to 43.01. As such, this week is likely to be a positive reversal week with a drop down to somewhere around 50.93-51.17 and a green weekly close next Friday. Immediate upside objective remains the 58.00 to 58.57 level. Any confirmed close (2 days in a row) below the 200-day MA at 51.71 would be a negative if followed by a weekly close next Friday below 50.93. Probabilities favor the bulls.

AM generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 10-week low and then going above the previous week's high and closing green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.10 will be seen this week. The green weekly close has now generated a double bottom on the weekly closing chart at 4.49/4.41 and if that double bottom is confirmed, it will mean that the worst is over and that the stock will see a short-covering rally and at least get into a sideways trend. Confirmation of the double bottom (at this time) does require a weekly close above 6.68, meaning that the bulls need to do a lot more before total confidence in buying the stock is stimulated. Nonetheless, this potential double bottom does suggest that a rally up to 6.68 is now highly likely to occur. The double bottom also exists on the daily chart at 4.41 and that means that the traders do have a clear level to watch, on an everyday closing basis, for clues as to what is happening. Using the daily closing chart, there is minor to perhaps decent support at Friday's closing price at 4.76 and that suggests that Monday should be a green close and further upside thereafter. With the stock closing on the low of Friday's trading range, on an intraweek basis, further downside below Friday's low at 4.72 should be seen on Monday. This dip should be used to add more long positions to the ones bought last week. Important and pivotal intraweek support is found between 4.26 and 4.33 that if broken, all of what happened last week will be erased. Short term pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 5.37 that if broken would close the gap at 5.65 and closure of the gap would give the bulls additional short term ammunition. On a longer term basis, it does need to be mentioned that the action seen during the past 6 months is opening the door for an inverted Head & Shoulders formation being built if the bulls can get the stock back up near the 7.00 level. If this does happen, the formation would then begin to be built over a period of at least 3-4 months but if built and then broken, would offer a potential upside objective of $14, to be reached at some point this year. For the time being though, the probabilities favor the bulls this week.

AU made a new 7-week high after Gold broke out and made another new 6-year high. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 22.75 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless and in spite of the breakout in Gold, the traders continue to show some doubt given that there are still 2 daily and weekly closes resistance above that still need to be broken before the bulls in the stock get fully committed. The intraweek resistances are found at 22.93 and then the strong one at the double top at 23.85/23.70. If Gold continues higher this week (likely), those two resistances become pivotal as any red daily close before a new 6-year daily closing high above 23.50 is seen, will give new ammunition to the bears, especially since it would mean that the stock is no longer sensitive to what Gold does. The first important daily close resistance is at 22.72 and given that the stock is supposed to go above last week's high at 22.75 this week, it is pivotal and important that the stock closes higher each day until a break of that resistance occurs. Minor but possibly short-term intraweek support is found at 21.22 that needs to hold up at this time. On a positive note though, the retest of the 200-day MA with the previous week's low at 18.77 has now been confirmed totally, meaning that the uptrend has now resumed. Nonetheless, that also means that a new high above 23.85 needs to occur before any selling of consequence is seen. Probabilities favor the bulls but there are still question marks.

CAT generated an inside week and a close in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning that no clue was given as to what direction will be taken this week. This was a bit surprising given that the indexes were weak and the stock is normally sensitive to the index market. Nonetheless, the red weekly close did make the previous weekly close into a successful retest of the copious weekly close resistance around the $138 level and it keeps the bears with a slight edge. For this week and on an intraweek basis, pivotal resistance is found at 140.50 and short-term pivotal support is found at 132.78 that if broken and a close below that level occurs, the 200-day MA will be broken and that will be a negative sign. Important pivotal support is found at 129.30. Probabilities favor more sideways action.

COF generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then below the previous week's low and closing in the red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 100.72 will be seen this week. By the same token and using the weekly closing chart, nothing of consequence occurred, meaning that the bulls still have the midterm edge. Pivotal intraweek support is found at 99.21 (99.80 on a weekly closing basis) that if broken, will give the bears the edge and likely short-term control. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at last week's high at 104.62 that if broken in spite of the negative reversal, would suggest that the uptrend would likely resume. Though the chart continues to slightly favor the bulls, a break of 99.21 would totally change the chart to a bearish one. Probabilities favors the bears this week.

CRON generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high but then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.10 will be seen this week. Short-term pivotal support is found at 6.57 and pivotal resistance at 7.96. Company reports earnings on Thursday morning and until that reports comes out, nothing is likely to happen.

CVGW generated a spike up week and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 79.23 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock backed off 2% from the high of the week, suggesting that selling interest is found at the broken 200-week MA, currently at 79.29. This does suggest this rally is mostly a retest of that break and that further downside below the recent low at 73.82 will be seen in the next few weeks. The retest of this MA was expected and should be used to liquidate the rest of the positions held. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 81.64 that if broken, holding on to the remains longs should be considered. Nonetheless, breaking of that level is a longshot at this time, meaning that this week and on a rally above last week's high, liquidation should occur. Intraweek supports is found at 76.36 and then at 75.18 but allowing the stock to fall back down to either one of those levels should not be done. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but liquidating of long positions should be done on that rally.

ENG, after spending 10 days trading below the 200-day MA, currently at .99, closed above that line on Friday and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.02 will be seen this week. The company announced that the earnings report will not come out for another 4 weeks (March 26) and therefore the stock remains trading on a chart basis. Support is found at .90 and resistance at 1.11 but the positive ending to the week, suggests that after testing the lower end of that trading range for the past 2 weeks that testing the upper end of that trading range will now occur. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

FNV continued its upward climb. Having made once again a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 119.39 is expected to be seen this week, especially considering that Gold also is heading higher and has no resistance of consequence for another $150 higher. There is no upside objective at this time. Short term pivotal support is now found at Thursday's low at 114.75. A break of that level would signal a pause and some base building but not anything more. Nonetheless, with Gold moving higher, that minor support level should not be seen this week. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

GS generated another red weekly close, the 4th out of the last 5 weeks and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 228.37 will be seen. Nonetheless, this coming week is looking to be pivotal, given that the weekly close on Friday was at a level of confirmed support around the $230 level that spans 3 years and shows 5 different high or low weekly closes in that area. Any weekly close below 228.35 (last week's low) would open the door for a drop down to the $220 level, which was the chart objective of this most recent mention. On an intraweek basis, support is found between 226.57 and 227.40 and one of those levels are likely to be seen this week, given the spike down action and $9 trading range seen last week. Much will depend on what the indexes do and how low they go, but the stock has been showing a bit of extra weakness above and beyond what has been seen in the indexes, meaning that traders are trading the stock more on its own chart than on what the indexes are doing. Intraweek resistance is now found at 234.64 that if broken would suggest the weekly close support level will hold. Probabilities slightly favor the bears but it is a short-term pivotal week.

LNTH got down to the 200-week MA, currently at 16.03, with a low last week at 16.05. The stock bounced up enough to close very slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a very slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 16.99 than below last week's low at 16.05. The stock has now generated 9 red weeks in a row but having gotten to the important and pivotal weekly MA, the chances are high that a green close will occur this week. Very minor resistance is found at 17.00 and then nothing until 19.31. Close by support is not yet established, meaning that some minor support is found at 15.40. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

MCIG generated a green weekly close, suggesting buying interest around the .05 level is now established. Nonetheless, the stock closed slightly below the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at .05 than above last week's high at .069. The 200-day MA, currently at .047, continues to be important support on a daily closing basis and having tested it successfully this week, suggests the bulls are more likely to buy than the bears to sell. CRON reports earnings on Thursday and with that company being one of the stalwarts of the Cannabis industry, it could impact what the stock does at the end of the week. Pivotal support now found at .038 and short-term pivotal resistance is foundat .069. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

SRUTF continued to inch lower, having made a new all-time intraweek low at .1308 (below the previous one at .1313) and a new all-time weekly closing low at .133. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, CRON reports earnings on Thursday and that company is considered to be one of the stalwarts of the Cannabis industry and if they report better than expected earnings, all Cannabis stocks are likely to move up. The opposite is also true. As such, I have no comment on the stock other to say that at these levels, the selling is minor and limited and unless there is some new negative fundamental news, it is unlikely the stock will go much more down.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .101.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.27 (new price (52.67).

3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0575.

4) COF - Averaged short at 91.73 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 101.15.

5) GS - Averaged short at 230.83 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 230.62.

6) FNV - Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 109.65. Stock closed on Friday at 119.18.

7) CRON - Averaged long at 10.4275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.15.

8) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.13.

9) BEN Covered shorts at 25.50. Averaged short at 25.353. Loss on the trade of $44 per 100 shares (3 mentions) plus commissions.

10) ARNA - Averaged long at 48.36 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 52.67.

11) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .133.

12) CVGW - Averaged long at 80.515 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 77.71.

13) CAT - Shorted at 134.55. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 137.21.

14) AM - Purchased at 4.93. Stop loss at 4.16. Stock closed on Friday at 4.76.

15) LNTH - Purchased at 16.26. Stop loss at 13.72. Stock closed on Friday at 16.57.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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