Issue #634 ![]() October 20, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Trade Agreement on Hold. Earnings on Center Stage. Bears still with Edge.
DOW Friday closing price - 26770
After 2 weeks of wild yo-yo-like action and big trading ranges, the indexes had a calm week, having still seen some yo-yo action with 3 green and 2 red daily closes but then only with 1/3 of the trading ranges seen the previous weeks, meaning that the uncertainty is less for the short term, likely because the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter has started and traders will await the results before speculating wildly again.
The lack of any catalytic type news and/or Trump tweet was another reason for the calmness as the traders await the confirmation of what was decided at the trade meeting. The DOW did generate a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high but then closing red and on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 26749 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the action in the DOW was not confirmed by the SPX or the NASDAQ, both of which also made new 3-week highs but closed green with the SPX closing very slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range but the NASDAQ slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range. This type of action suggests that the traders will wait for further news before making decisions, none of which was made this week. Nonetheless, the overall action still is more supportive to the bears than the bulls, given that the recent action has once again placed the bulls in a "sink or swim" scenario of having to make new all-time highs or face the negatives of having twice successfully tested the all-time highs made in July and all the negative connotations of trend change that suggests.
The SPX enjoyed the most success this past week given that the earnings reports were mostly financial and JPM and MS received better than expected earnings though GS tempered their gains with a lower than expected earnings reports. This coming week the DOW will be the key index with HAL, PG, MCD, TRV, MSFT and INTC reporting. In addition, on Thursday afternoon AMZN reports and that is likely to be the star everyone is looking to see. By the same token, no big surprises are expected to come out this week, especially to the upside given the slowdown in the economy, meaning that at the end of the week it is unlikely the traders will have made any big decisions on direction off of the earnings reports this coming week.
It is always difficult to change a long term trend in a short period of time without a major catalyst and the indexes were in an uptrend from 2009 to 2018 and in a sideways trend from January 2018 to now. Trend changes require a change of mentality among the traders and the gut response to dips has still been to buy. By the same token, for the past 3 months that strategy has not worked with already one failure and now if the indexes do not make a new high, it would be a second failure and that would likely tip the scales in favor of the bears and the beginning of a bear market.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor to decent resistance at the 27120, and then decent at 27317 and strong at the all-time high at 27398. The SPX shows minor to decent resistance at 3007/3008, decent resistance at the double high at 3020, and strong at the all-time high at 3028. The NASDAQ now shows minor to decent resistance at 8183, decent at 8243 and strong at the all-time high at 8339.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor but likely short term pivotal support at 26139. Below that, there is general support at the 26,000 demilitarized zone and strongly pivotal at previous week's low at 25743. The SPX shows minor but short term pivotal support at 2892 and then strongly pivotal at 2855. The NASDAQ shows minor but short term pivotal support at 7821 and then strongly pivotal at 7700.
This past week the bulls attempted to make new all-time highs but like what happened 3 weeks ago, the bulls failed to do accomplish the goal and that means that once again they need help to do so, above what has happened before. The trade agreement made a week ago Friday has yet to be signed and ratified but that was not known last Sunday night/Monday early morning and if it was supposed to be the panacea that some people expected would be, it did not happen, meaning that the signing of the trade agreement as it is written now, is not likely to be sufficient for the indexes to make new all-time highs. That means that the bulls are now depending on the next 2 weeks of the earnings quarter being better than expected and the Fed rate decision on the 30th of the month be a meaningful rate cut and neither of these is likely to occur.
The gaps below remain a magnet that each day will pull stronger. In fact, the DOW closed at 26770 on Friday and on the lows of the week, suggesting more downside will be seen this week. The gap is at 26603 and that is only 175 points below Friday's gap and that amount of downside can easily be seen, especially considering that the index fell 190 points on Friday. If the gaps begin to be closed, the bulls will have a lot more ground to make up to make new all-time highs. The gap in the SPX is at 2948 and NASDAQ at 7982 and in both of those, those gaps are just 11.4% away from Friday's close.
It is now mostly evident that last week's highs are about as high as the indexes can go without triggering new chart buying. As it is, those highs are now "perfectly located" as being a 2nd (and lower) retest of the all-time highs. Such a chart formation favors a bearish resolution and it being the trigger to new and stronger selling interest. Nonetheless, that is still a question that has not yet been answered clearly, other than the probabilities suggesting that is the most likely outcome.
With no news of consequence occurring over the weekend or on Monday morning, it does suggest a red opening on Monday with closure of the gaps being the objective. Probabilities slightly favor the bears with the only question being "how much".
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I took a look at the charts of about 60 stocks this weekend and could not find any trade that can be done at this time with a viable entry point, stop loss point and objective that could be depended on. As such, I have no new mentions once again this week. I do believe that the probabilities continue to favor the shorts but there is not yet a high enough probability of success to offset the iffy risk/reward ratios. I doubt that will change much until perhaps Friday after AMZN earnings come out and even then, the probabilities favor the traders waiting for the Fed interest rate announcement on the 30th of the month.
By the same token, the probabilities slightly favor the bears this week and day trades shorts might be available on a day to day basis. If those occur, I will let you know on the message board. For the short-to-midterm trades, waiting until after the Fed announces their decision, is the intelligent thing to do. It is interesting to note that on the same week the Fed announces their interest rate decision (on Wednesday), that same week on Friday, the ISM Index and Jobs Reports come out. It is highly likely that the following week to this one coming up, will be a strong decision week going into the end of the year. Until then, day traders are likely to be the only ones putting on trades, other than earnings reports companies.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA continued its recovery, having made another green weekly close (3rd in a row) and closing in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 50.09 will be seen this week. The upside objective is the 200-day MA, currently at 51.10 and the weekly close breakdown point at 50.93, both of these being important on a closing basis. Support on a daily closing basis will now be found between 46.70 and 47.00. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. AU generated an inside week but a green close and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21.01 will be seen this week. Intraweek upside objective is anywhere from 21.50 to 21.74. Nonetheless, if the bulls can generate a weekly close above 21.91 next Friday (or any Friday), it will be a bull statement. Short-term pivotal support is found at 19.53 and longer term at 18.04 that if broken would be a signal that the mid-term uptrend is over. If 18.58 is broken, a drop down to 18.08 will likely be seen. Gold closed on Friday below $1499, suggesting the gold market is on pause right now awaiting new news. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. CRON generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 51-week low and then going above the previous week's high at 9.06 and closing in the green, The stock saw an intraweek spike up rally of over 20% on Thursday as a couple of big buy orders by hedge and institutional funds were processed. Nonetheless, the rally was not confirmed as the stock gave back 18% of the rally the same day and all of the rally by Friday, to close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.40 is slightly more probable than a rally above last week's high at 10.56. It is probable though, that an inside week will occur as the 7.40 low has all the earmarks of a bottom. The first course of business for the week will likely be a drop below Friday's low at 8.28 but if the 7.82 level is not broken, some chart buying interest is likely to be seen and a rally to test the week's high is likely to follow. The probabilities favor the bulls this week as the stock is severely oversold and has no company negatives other than what is occurring to the industry. The 9.44 level is the upside week's objective. DD generated an uneventful inside week. The stock generated a green weekly close but it was meaningless other than the fact that the stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 64.52 will be seen this week. The stock remains under bear control though the recent support at 64.60 still needs to be broken to stimulate further downside of consequence. Downside objective is the $56-$60 level that if reached, consideration should be given for taking profits. To the upside, pivotal resistance is now found at 67.82 that if broken would suggest further upside up to $70-$71 would be seen. Probabilities favor the bears. DIS received some good news regarding their streaming service as well as the announcement of new toys for the holiday season. The stock rallied 2.6% from the previous week's close and on Thursday, generated a failure signal against the bears when the stock closed above the daily close breakdown point at 131.34. Nonetheless, that failure signal was negated on Friday, as well as not confirmed on the weekly closing chart, when the stock closed on Friday at 130.89, which was also below the weekly close breakdown point at 131.67. If the stock generates a red weekly close next Friday, the breakdown point will have been tested successfully, giving the bears new ammunition for a drop down to the $118-$120 level. Important and pivotal intraday and daily closing support is found at 127.54 that if broken will not only generate a new sell signal but also a break of the 200-day MA, currently at 128.13. The stock closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 129.40 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's high at 133.44 will become a decent and highly pivotal resistance level. Probabilities favor the bears. ENG generated an uneventful weekly close, closing $.01 cents below last week's close. Nonetheless, the stock did go below last week's low at .96 with a low at .93 but then reversed to close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.04 will be seen this week. If that occurs, last week's low will become a necessary/required retest of the recent low at .90 and should stimulate new buying interest. A break above 1.10 would likely be a signal that the previous uptrend has resumed. Pivotal support is now found at .90. Probabilities favor the bulls. FNV generated for the second time in the last 4 weeks a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing green and near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 93.83 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the chart is presently favoring the bears, inasmuch as an inverted pyramid flag formation is now in place that if the bottom of the flag at 90.09 gets broken, the downside target would be 85.72. By the same token, if the top of the pyramid flag at 96.92 is broken to the upside, the uptrend would likely resume. Much like with the Index market, it likely depends on the resolution of the present sideways trend after the earnings reports are out and the interest rate cut is announced. Probabilities favor a slight bias to the upside this week but with an objective of 95.00. This coming week is not likely to be indicative. MDT bulls were able to get above the previous week's high, opening the door for the mini rally seen last week to be the required/needed retest of the all-time high at 112.05. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 107.31 than above last week's high at 108.98. If that does occur, last week's high will become the retest of the all-time high and selling interest should increase. If last week's low is broken, a drop down to 106.08 is likely to occur. Pivotal support is found at 105.00 and some resistance is found at 109.70 that if broken would suggest the all-time high would be tested. Probabilities favor the bears this week but only for a drop down to the 106.00 level. SRUTF did not follow through on the previous week's close on the low of the week and did generate a green weekly close and slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a bottom may have been found and that further upside above last week's high at .30 will be seen this week. The stock has now generated 7 weeks in a row of less than $.035 trading ranges and overall has traded within a $.09 trading range, strongly suggesting that selling interest has begun to wane given that the previous 7 weeks to the last 7 weeks, the trading range was $.24. The stock this close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .30 will be seen this week. A daily close above .34 will generate some short-covering. A daily close below .255 would further weaken the chart. The probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.03. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.88 (new price (48.81). 3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0401. 4) COF - Shorted at 90.71 and 91.03. Averaged short at 90.87 (2 mentions). Stock closed on Friday at 89.80. 5) DIS - Averaged short at 134.42 (2 mentions) No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 130.89. 6) FNV - Averaged long at 90.15 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 93.29. 7) CRON - Averaged long at 12.80 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.32. 8) AU - Averaged long at 19.205 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.84. 9) MDT - Shorted at 102.35. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 108.12. 10) ARNA - Averaged long at 48.36 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 48.81. 11) DD - Shorted at 71.56. Stop loss at 73.87. Stock closed on Friday at 65.53. 12) SRUTF - Purchased at .36. No stop loss at moment. Stock closed on Friday at .28.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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