Issue #629 ![]() Sep 8, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bulls Seemingly in Control, but is it Tangible?
DOW Friday closing price - 26797
The bulls pulled off the improbable this week, having negated the 4-week and firmly established bearish inverted flag formation without any fundamentally tangible news to support it. The negation is a statement by the bulls that new all-time highs will now be targeted, at least in the SPX given that there is no resistance between the top of the flag and the all-time intraweek high at 3028. Nonetheless, with the DOW and the NASDAQ still having decent resistance levels above that will not likely be broken without tangibly positive news, the scenario being presented can be considered "a 1-Index phenomena" that will not likely bring about a convincing result to the overall market.
It has been known for some time that the traders are keying on 2 things at this time with #1 being the trade war and #2 being the interest rate scenario. With Trump heavily pushing for lower interest rates and using the podium to lash out at Fed Chief Powell to lower them aggressively, it can be said that interest rates have now taken the #1 spot given that the trade war has seen some alleviation due to China's decision this past week to not to "match" the latest increase of tariffs from the U.S. and as such, the SPX has taken up the leadership role and is the reason the index could end up making new all-time highs but the other indexes not. Nonetheless, it is interesting to note that this morning (Saturday), Powell stated "Fed is not at all expecting a recession, saying that the economy continues to perform well" and that may take some wind out of the bull statement made this past week.
The DOW and the NASDAQ still have decent resistance levels above at 26951 and at 8176 that will automatically bring in chart selling interest. Given that they are previous all-time highs and from which a correction of 20% and 11% occurred (respectively), it can be assumed that computers, algorithms and chart traders will all offer strong selling when reached. Given that those two indexes closed on Friday just .6% and .9% (respectively) below those resistance levels, it seems improbable that the SPX which is still 1.7% away from a new all-time high will have an easy shot at a new all-time high, especially with the Fed statement made today. This breakout in the index created a "swim or sink" scenario and a failure to make a new all-time high will not only be seen as a "strong negative sign" but would end up being a required/needed successful retest of the all-time high before a downtrend (not a correction) can begin. This is why this week's negation of the bearish inverted flag is so dangerous to the bulls given that there are no scheduled reports or meetings between China and the U.S. this week that can give the bulls the required ammunition to overcome the chart resistance levels above. The bulls committed themselves to making a new all-time high and in those cases (few and rare) when it does happen, failure is not an option and if failure occurs it does have long term meaning. It should be mentioned that in the last 18 months this scenario has occurred twice and both times the SPX went to make a new all-time high. If that does not occur now, it will likely have serious and long-term implications.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows decent resistance at 26951 and then strong at the all-time high at 27398. The SPX shows strong resistance at the all-time high at 3028 and the NASDAQ shows decent resistance at 8176 and then strong at the all-time high at 8339.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 26465 and short-term pivotal at 25978. The SPX now shows minor support at 2963 and short-term pivotal at 2906. The NASDAQ shows minor support at 8061 and then short-term pivotal at 7847.
The charts are now full of clearly defined areas of importance. To begin with and on a daily closing basis, the previous top-of-the-bearish-flag-formation are now strongly indicative. A daily close in the DOW below 26378, in the SPX below 2939, and the NASDAQ below 8039 will generate a failure-to-follow-through signal that would negate this breakout. In addition, the DOW and the SPX are both showing a breakaway and runaway gap formations between 26198 and 26244 and between 2938 and 2960 respectively. The NASDAQ is only showing a breakaway gap between 7981 and 8061 and that is even more of a magnet unless followed by a runaway gap. Those gaps are not supported by tangible news and will be magnets for closure until such a time that some truly positive fundamental news occurs. To the upside, the levels mentioned above are clear resistances of importance.
It is also clearly evident that until Wednesday the 18th that the traders will find themselves in a chart-driven market given that the 2 most important economic reports of the month came out this past week. The ISM index was actually bearish as it came out at 49.1% and anything below 50% represents contraction of the economy and the Jobs Report came out on the week side, given that 180K new jobs were expected but the number came out at 130K. This means that this market is not presently supported enough fundamentally for what the bulls are trying to accomplish. This week, Retail Sales and PPI and CPI come out but none of those reports are likely to be catalytic enough to drive the traders one way or the other. As such, charts will be what the traders use this week.
The momentum of the breakout is now the immediate driving force but with the resistance levels in the DOW and the NASDAQ very close by, it is likely that a good portion of the week will be red with the bears attempting to diffuse the breakout and trying to close the gaps. I do not expect anything of consequence to happen this week, especially after the Powell statement. Then again, momentum can be difficult to evaluate and if there are any "surprises" they will likely be to the upside. By the same token, I find it difficult for the bulls to accomplish making a new all-time high before the Fed announces its rate decision the following week.
As such, I believe the probabilities favor a generally uneventful week with closes next Friday either very slightly above or below the closes last Friday.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The same situation remains with the indexes not yet giving a clear picture of direction. Without a trend established, be it short or long term, traders will have trouble committing to a direction (short or long). As such, I have no new mentions this week.
The time frame for something being decided is now down to less than 8 trading days so next week there are likely to be clear opportunities for trading the rest of the year.
For this week though, the same 3 standing purchase mentions on previously held stocks remain (ARNA around $50 with a $65 objective and a 46.25 stop loss, JD below 28.00 with a stop loss at 25.67 and FSLR below 58.00 with a stop loss at 56.44. It seems highly doubtful that JD and FSLR will get down to the desired entry points but it does seem likely that ARNA will get down to its desired entry level and should be bought!
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AAPL made a new 10-day high and with the green weekly close confirmed the break of the 4-point downtrend line (based on weekly closes) that started 53 weeks ago. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above 214.42 is expected to be seen this week. Like with the indexes, the stock is showing a breakaway and runaway gap formation between 206.98 and 207.32 and 209.49 and 211.51, which if one is closed the other is likely to follow, meaning that 211.51 is now considered new support. Minor resistance is found at 214.44, decent at 215.31 and then decent to perhaps strong at 221.37. Pivotal support is found at 204.22 that if broken would negate the breakout and rally. Company reports the new IPhone on Tuesday and that could be a catalyst for this week. Probabilities favor the bulls. ARNA generated a new 5-month intraweek and weekly closing low in spite of the rally in the indexes and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 50.63 will be seen this week. The inability of the bulls to accomplish any positive action to the upside in spite of a rallying index market strongly suggests that further downside is still "in the books". Nonetheless, the stock got down near the 200-day MA, currently 49.81, and did get below on an intraweek basis, the important and likely pivotal weekly close at 50.93, which represent the previous multi-year high weekly close. It is unlikely that at this time that level will be broken, meaning that any drop below last week's low should be seen as a buying opportunity. Indicative intraweek support is found at 47.92 as that was the low see just prior to the beginning of the run up to 64.48 and as such, should not be broken, suggesting a stop loss at 47.62 can be used. I do expect another red weekly close next Friday and likely to be around the 50.93 level but thereafter a new uptrend should begin. AU has fallen 13.7% over the past 2 weeks and is having the first correction of consequence since February. The stock closed on the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 20.80 is expected to be seen. In addition, the stock closed below the previous high weekly close at 21.91 that was made in August 2016 and if confirmed this week with another close below that level would suggest that the recent high at 23.85 has become a new (albeit perhaps temporary) top. Intraweek support of some consequence is found between 19.60 and 19.85, both on the intraweek and daily closing chart and it also represents the $20 demilitarized zone, meaning that at this time there is no reason to believe that the bears will be able to break below that level. Monday has some importance as the stock closed below the most recent high daily close at 21.00, meaning that if confirmed with another red daily close, it is likely the stock will fall to the 19.60 level and trade between that level and 20.90 for at least a few days. A green daily close on Monday would take away some of the momentum the bears gained last week and would likely cause the stock to move back up to at least retest the 23.85 level with a rally back up to 22.80-23.00. The stock is presently tied opposite to what the index market does. Probabilities are evenly split for this week. BABA generated a green week and a close in the upper half of the week's trading range but unlike a couple of the other held short positions, the bulls failed to make a statement, having gotten to within $.68 cents of the 4-month high and then on Friday generating a negative reversal day having made a new 13-day high but then turning around to close below the previous day's low and on the low of the day, suggesting the first course of action on Monday will be to the downside. Though the weekly chart suggests that further upside above last week's high is the most likely scenario, the action on Friday suggests that might not occur. The stock is showing an open gap between 168.00 and 170.95 and only showing minor support between 171.57 and 172.15, suggesting that if the bears can get an edge at the beginning of the week that the closure of the gap will be targeted. Decent resistance is found at the $180 demilitarized zone and on Friday before the Jobs report came out, the stock was bid above that level, meaning that the bulls were not even able to meet the opening call. Any rally above 180.30 would be a positive. Probabilities slight favor the bears. COF made a new 4-week high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 88.90 will be seen this week. More importantly, the stock has established itself above the 200-day MA, currently at 85.75, having closed above that line on both Thursday and Friday. Nonetheless, the chart is not yet all rosy for the bulls given that Thursday's rally was a spike up with a close on the high of the week and Friday there was no follow through, having had an inside day and a red close on the low of the day. In addition, the stock is showing an open gap between 86.47 and 86.82 that is not supported with news and likely to be closed before any further upside will occur. Nonetheless, the chart suggests that the bulls now have the edge and other than minor resistance found at 89.47, there is no resistance of any consequence until 91.60, meaning that if the gap is closed, careful consideration should be given to covering the short positions and taking the small loss, unless some unexpected weakness is seen in the index market. Intraweek support is found between 85.36 and 85.72 that includes the 200-day MA. If that support is broken, a new evaluation can be made. At this time, covering of the shorts should be made if that area is reached. CRON generated the first green weekly close in the past 7 weeks, giving notice that the bottom to this downtrend might have been made. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 12.41 is expected to be seen. There is no resistance above until 12.98 is reached and a bit stronger at 13.95. There is an open gap between 12.87 and 13.07 that is likely to be targeted this week with the question being whether the gap will be closed or not. Closure of the gap would be a positive while the opposite is also true. A weekly close above 14.08 would erase all the weakness seen the past 7 weeks but is unlike to occur at this time, meaning that the possibilities suggest the stock might be in a trading range between $11 and $13 for the next 3-6 week. Important support remains at the $10 demilitarized zone. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only as far as a rally to the 12.90 level. ENG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week intraweek low at 1.02 and then turning around to generate a green weekly close. Unfortunately, it was not a convincing turn around given that the close was only $.01 cent above the previous week's close, no resistance levels were broken, and it was the smallest weekly trading range seen since the first week of May. As such, it can be mostly said that it was an uneventful week. There is some very minor weekly close support at 1.04 and then minor to decent at the .99/1.00 level that at this time should not be broken on a weekly closing basis. The action seen has not been unexpected given that 6 weeks ago the stock got up to the 200-week MA at 1.16 and so far the bulls have not been strong enough to make the bullish statement that is likely to come in the not too distant future. For now and before another attempt at breaking that long term MA, it is likely that the bulls will need to retest and even strengthen the support at the $1 level. Intraweek support of consequence is found between .97 and 1.00 and short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.18. Probabilities favor the stock trading in the range for the next 2-3 weeks. ENTG made a new all-time high weekly close at 44.29, above the previous one at 43.98. The stock closed near the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 44.75 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the all-time intraweek high at 45.12 was not broken, leaving a "slight" doubt as to whether this new all-time high weekly close will be confirmed next Friday. It should be noted that like with the indexes, the stock is showing a breakaway/runaway gap formation between 41.78 and 42.16 and between 43.58 and 43.66 and that formation should have been strong enough to take the stock into a new all-time high daily close above 44.87 on either Thursday or Friday after the formation was built. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to accomplish that on either of those two days, having closes at 44.18 and 44.29. The inability of "making that happen" at the end of the week leaves the door open for failure this week. By the same token, what the stock did last week and where it closed, suggests the bulls have the edge and that the probabilities favor the bulls this week. Stop loss should remain at 45.35. FNV generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time high at 101.19 and then closing red and near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 95.75 will be seen this week. In addition, a short-term sell signal was generated on Friday when the stock closed below the most recent low daily close at 97.29. This action was not unexpected given that the stock reached the psychological objective of the $100 demilitarized zone. In addition, Gold also had a negative reversal week and is expected to go below last week's low at $1510. By the same token, the $1500 level does have some support, both from previous action as well as psychologically, meaning that further downside may be limited. As it is, Gold had an initial objective of getting up to the $1575 level and it did get up to $1566 so in essence this correction is not unexpected though how much of a correction is likely to be seen is still a question. It is likely that at some point soon (perhaps even this week) that the stock will retest the 101.19 high with a rally up to at least the bottom of the $100 demilitarized zone at 99.70 and consideration can be given to taking profits there and looking to buy the correction low. Very minor support is found at 9381 and then decent and likely unbreakable-at-this-time at the $90 demilitarized zone. Probabilities favor the bears this week. MDT made another new all-time weekly closing high this past week and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 108.76 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, it does need to be mentioned that the all-time intraweek high at 109.70 has stood firm 12 trading days (not broken or tested) and that is not all that supportive of the bull-run continuing. The stock has traded mostly in a $2 trading range between 106.79 and 108.79 for the past 2 weeks and if that low is broken by more than 10 points, profit taking interest will likely occur. As long as the 109.70 (and up to 110.30) level does not get broken, the bears have a slightly better chance of a correction occurring than the uptrend continuing. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. SRUTF generated another red weekly close, the 4th in a row, but the stock showed some buying interest as it went above the previous week's high and also stayed above the previous week's low, suggesting the worse of this recent downtrend might be over. The stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at .2995 is expected to be seen this week. If that does occur but the recent intraweek low at .274 is not broken, it could end up becoming the required/needed retest of that 8-month low and would stimulate some new buying interest, especially if a green weekly close occurs next Friday. Last week's high at .335 is now considered short-term pivotal resistance that if broken would be a sign that the downtrend is over. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls this week.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.616 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.06. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.18 (new price (51.84). 3) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .052. 4) AAPL - Averaged short at 201.442 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 213.26. 5) ENTG - Averaged short at 42.605 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 45.35. Stock closed on Friday at 44.29. 6) FNV - Averaged long at 88.205 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 90.65. Stock closed on Friday at 96.53. 7) BABA - Shorted at 178.13. Stop loss at 180.35. Stock closed on Friday at 176.69. 8) CRON - Averaged long at 14.033 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.93. 9) AU - Averaged long at 18.86 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.82. 10) MDT - Shorted at 102.35. Stop loss now at 110.35. Stock closed on Friday at 108.69. 11) COF - Averaged short at 85.285 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday 88.19
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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