Issue #614
May 19, 2019
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Trade Talks Break Down. Indexes Likely to Remain Under Sell Pressure.

DOW Friday closing price - 25942
SPX Friday closing price - 2881
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 7916

The indexes continued the recent downtrend, having all generated another red weekly close on Friday. In addition, the failure signals given in SPX and the NASDAQ were confirmed as well with the additional red close. With this action being the repercussion of the fundamental failure of the trade agreement with China having occurred and no resolution to the problem being anticipated to happen anytime soon, the bulls will require further positive fundamental news to generate new buying interest and there is nothing scheduled on the immediate horizon (next 2-3 weeks) that could accomplish that goal, the probabilities favor at least a bearish bias continuing until the beginning of next month.

The bulls were able to generate a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's highs (DOW at 25957 and 25222, SPX at 2892 and 2801, and NASDAQ at 7846 and 7627) than last week's lows this coming week. Such action is likely to be seen given that the negative news has been mostly factored into the price and what the traders are now likely to do is fulfill the building of the chart, inasmuch as a retest of the previous highs (and in to case of the SPX and NAZ the previous all-time highs) has to occur before new chart selling interest is seen. Nonetheless, rallies will be fundamentally capped, meaning any upside of consequence is unlikely to be seen.

This coming week there are two economic reports due out that may have some impact. On Wednesday, the minutes of last month's FOMC minutes are scheduled to be released. It is unlikely though, that the report will have any meaningful meaning given that nothing new is likely to be mentioned. On Friday, the Durable Goods report is due out and that report could have an impact though more likely in favor of the bears than the bulls. Last month's report came out at +2.6% and this month's report is expected to be exactly the opposite at -2.6%. If that occurs, it would mean the economy is slowing down and added to the fact the trade war is also going to cause a fall in GDP, it would likely be a double negative.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW will now show minor to decent resistance between 26241 and 26277. The SPX at 2916 and the NASDAQ 8052. These levels are now likely to be a brick wall unless the fundamentals have improved. By the same token, if these resistance levels are not reached, and the indexes close in the lower half of the week's trading range next Friday, it would be a signal that the selling interest is strong and that a new leg to the downside is to occur.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis the DOW shows decent as well as strongly pivotal support from a double bottom between 25208 and 25222. Below that level, there is no support of consequence until the 24,000 level is reached. The SPX does show support around the 2800 level and then again at 2776 but the pivotal support is at 2722. The NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent support at last week's low at 7627 and then important support between 7579 and 7600 but pivotal at 7332.

Like I said up above, it is doubtful that anything negative of consequence will occur this week but by the same token, the upside is limited. With the recent news of the trade talks breaking down, the traders are now at least "spooked" by the possible consequences of the trade war continuing longer and especially since now there does not seem to be any window for an early resumption of trade talks with China. As such, traders will much more apt to sell than to buy.

It must also be mentioned that the indexes all got up to a minor but short-term pivotal resistance at 26019 in the DOW, at 2891 in the SPX and at 7949 in the NASDAQ on Thursday (highs were 25957, 2892 and 7946) but were unable to break those highs for 2 full days. As such, that will be the first key to watch at the beginning of the week because if that inability to break a "minor" resistance from 6 days ago continues through Wednesday, the traders will turn bearish immediately after the FOMC minutes from last month are released.

At this time, there is no fundamental reason to rally given that the rally was heavily due to the anticipation that the Trade war would end. In addition, the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter are over and there are no economic reports of consequence until the beginning of next month. As such, there is no valid reason to rally other than to fulfill the chart with some backing and filling. Probabilities favor the bears.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I believe that until the trade war with China is resolved, traders will be looking to short stocks on rallies rather than buy dips. As such, I am giving 2 sell mentions this week for short positions. One of the mentions is not tied in to the index market, meaning that it has its own chart picture based on the fundamentals, meaning that you can choose which one to short based on your own view of what is to happen. Either way, both of the mentions have the highest rating I can give.

COF Friday Closing Price - 90.54

COF is a financial institution that for the past 2 years and based on weekly closes has traded mostly between $78 and $94 dollars though it did have one rally up to $105 and one drop down to $72. Simply stated it is dependable but also has shown adherence to chart support and resistance levels.

Like the index market, COF generated the drop down to the $72 level in December and then got into a rally that seems to have been culminated 4 weeks ago with a intraweek high at 94.38 (weekly close at 94.26), followed by a mini 7.5% correction down to 87.24 during the weakness seen in the index market. The stock generated a positive reversal week last week, having made that 87.24 low and then rallying to close green for the week and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 91.56 will be seen this week, which in turns opens the door for short that has a clearly defined and decent resistance area as well as a clear downside target based on the 2-year history of trading in a trading range.

COF does not report earnings for another 2 months, suggesting the traders will trade the stock via the charts and what the indexes do rather than on its own.

COF has traded mostly above the 200-week MA, currently at 83.13, for most of the 2 years it has been on this trading range but did break the line in December when the correction in the index market occurred and traded below the line for 15 weeks before finally getting above it again. Since the line got broken to the upside on this occasion, there has not yet been a retest of that line, suggesting that if the index market is going to have more selling than buying pressure for the short term, that the line is not only a viable downside objective but one with a high probability of being seen.

Like the indexes, COF got up to a minor intraweek resistance at 91.60 with the 91.56 high that was seen this past week. Like with the indexes, the probabilities of that resistance getting broken are better than not. If broken it would suggest an additional rally up to the next resistance area at 93.40. Either way, the 94.26 weekly close resistance that is further strengthened by a high weekly close at 93.94 seen in February 2017 does make that area dependable resistance and unlikely to be broken at this time.

To the downside, COF does show weekly close support at the 200-week MA but on an intraweek basis no support is found until the $80 level is reached.

It is important to note that the bounce seen in COF this past week was because the stock got down to the 200-day MA, currently at 87.79 with a low at 87.24 and that is why this opportunity to short the stock is available.

The big question this week, but one that should be answered no later than Wednesday, is whether the minor resistance at 91.60 is broken or not, meaning the risk/reward ratio is the only thing at risk of changing.

Sales of COF around the 93.40 level and using at 94.48 stop loss and having a minimum downside objective of 83.13 will offer almost a 10-1 risk/reward ratio. A sale of the stock above 91.00 and using the same stop loss and objective, will lower the risk/reward ratio to 2.3-1. Nonetheless, the probability rating on this trade is high.

My rating on the trade is a 4.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

EPD Friday Closing Price - 28.92

EPD provides midstream energy services to producers and consumers of natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil, petrochemicals and refined product. Natural gas has been in high demand with short supply for the winter months and also because supplies had fallen anywhere from 16% to as much as 29% from year ago levels. Nonetheless, it is now anticipated that because of the higher prices, there is going to be an increase in production at a time where demand goes down during the hot summer months. Click on this link for further details: Fundamental outlook for Natural Gas

In looking at the chart of EPD, the one thing that jumps out immediately is how consistent in price this stock has been since March 2016, having traded all this time between $24 and $29.50 (based on weekly closes), having seen the high level 7 occasions and the low level on 5 occasions during this period of time. The stock got up 8 weeks ago to an intraweek high of 29.84 and then proceeded to drop down to 28.04 over the subsequent weeks. The stock closed on the highs of the week last week, suggesting this week the stock will go above last week's high at 29.05 this week, opening the door for a short position to be instituted with a small risk factor.

It should be mentioned that EPD has not shown any big moves down on this occasion as of yet but this same type of action was seen last year between July and October for a period of 12 weeks that ultimately ended up with a drop down to 23.33 in a period of 11 weeks thereafter. It does suggest that based on the fundamental outlook shown in the link that something very similar is likely to happen again, especially considering the dependability of the chart for the past 3 years.

Sales of EPD around the 29.30 level and using a stop loss at 30.35 and having an objective of 23.30 will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 4.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

I am also considering adding positions on ARNA below 52.00.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA made a new 52-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 58.00 will be seen this week. The stock did back off almost 7% from the high given that an uptrend line is found at that level and some profit taking occurred. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading and that suggests the profit taking binge that was seen on Friday will turn out to be no more than a retest of the previous daily closing high breakout point at 51.81 before resuming the uptrend. As it is, the stock has now had 2 weeks in a row of expanded weekly trading ranges ($7.60 and $9.92 respectively), meaning that the pattern is likely to continue for at least another week or two. The likely short-term is objective to the upside of this breakout is 62.80 and given that the stock showed almost a $10 trading range last week, a low for this week of around 51.80 and a possible objective of 62.80 would only expand the trading range $1 above what was seen last week. Either way, whether that objective is reached in 1 or 2 weeks, the bottom line is that the stock is on a breakout and there is no recent resistance of consequence until that level is reached. In fact, consideration should be given to adding positions this week on any drop below $52. Probabilities favor the bulls.

AAPL generated another red weekly close but a close in the upper half of the week's trading range (very much like the indexes did), suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 192.47 than below last week's low at 182.85. Nonetheless, the bulls got up to the week's high on Thursday and were within $.30 of closing the gap at 192.77 but just like the indexes, they failed to get to minor resistance or in the case of the stock, to close the gap. The gap remains a magnet for the bulls and a positive signal for the bears if not closed and it seems that both (indexes and stock) are tied to each other at the hip, meaning that if the indexes break their minor resistances (mentioned above), the stock is likely to do the same with the gap. There is additional resistance close by (like with the indexes) at 194.20 but like with the indexes, that resistance is unlikely to be broken without positive news. As such, the stop at 192.77 should be mental given that the stock would only have $1.43 move to resistance but the downside objective is still the $160 level, meaning that the risk/reward ratio on the trade remains favorable even with a 194.35 stop loss. It also needs to be mentioned that the 200-day MA is currently at 192.46 and the probabilities of that line getting broken to the upside and the break being confirmed are very low. In using the intraday chart, a break below Friday's low at 186.81 would suggest the bulls will not get the rally that the chart presently suggest may occur.

CCJ continued its slide downward, have generated the 4th red weekly close in a row and having dropped 14% in value during that period of time. Nonetheless, the stock did get down to the low of the week on Monday (at 9.97) and the bears were unable to generate any further downside the rest of the week. The $10 demilitarized zone is a decent to perhaps strong psychological support and definitely there was some buying interest or at least short-covering seen there. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning that both the high and the low of the week have the same chance of being broken this week. Evidently, if the stock gets above last week's high at 10.24, more short covering is likely to be seen, especially if the top of the $10 demilitarized zone at 10.30 is broken. It does need to be mentioned that the gap from September's earning report at 9.99 has now been closed, meaning that is no longer a magnet or a tool for the bears. Given that the stock traded above the 200-week MA, currently at 10.88, for 15 weeks in a row and it was the earnings report on May 1st that brought about this recent drop and that caused the September earnings gap to be closed, it will be likely that a rally back up to the MA is seen first, before the bears attempt to break the $10 psychological support. As such, I do expect that the bulls will get a slight short-term edge and generate a rally back up to the line. I would be looking to either liquidate or cut the held positions in half. The one thing that does need to be mentioned is that the rating agencies did not make any big changes to their longer term outlook off of the earnings report. One rating agency did cut the upside objective from $20 down to $17 but another one kept the objective at $18, meaning that they are still overall bullish from the current prices. Evidently a break below the bottom of the $10 demilitarized zone at 9.70 would give new fuel to the bears. Nonetheless, probabilities favor the bulls at this time.

CPG generated an uneventful inside week given that oil was up and down all week and it wasn't until the end of the week that it finally showed some upward momentum. The stock did close in the middle of the week's trading range, leaving the door open for a rally above last week's high at 4.14 or a drop below last week's low at 3.75. One of the problems that the bulls are having is that the 200-day MA, currently at 4.24, has not been broken to the upside for the past 10 months and it is going to take a weekly close in oil above 64.00 (closed on Friday at 62.76) before the bulls can generate enough new buying to break the MA line. By the same token, the recent better than expected earnings report is going to give the bulls enough ammunition to keep the stock from breaking down, meaning that the stock is likely to trade sideways but likely with a slight bullish bias. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 4.46 and pivotal intraweek support is found at 3.47. Probabilities favor the stock trading in that range until oil breaks out.

CVS generated a new all-time intraweek low, having broken the previous low at 51.77 by $.05 cents at 51.72. Nonetheless, the break occurred on Friday and yet there was no follow through to the downside and a positive reversal day occurred, with the stock going above Thursday's high and then closing green and near the high of the day at 53.20, suggesting that the first course of action for the week on Monday will be to the upside above that high. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 51.72 than above last week's high at 54.45 but it does need to be mentioned that the bears were unable to generate a new all-time low weekly close below 52.63, having rallied sufficiently on Friday to close at 52.88. The company remains under sell pressure fundamentally given that the merger with AETNA is being contested and a ruling is not expected to occur until June 4th. Nonetheless, the merger has a high degree of probability of going forward and the fact that the stock has been trading in a $6 trading range between 51.72 and 57.75 for the past 11 weeks does suggest nothing of consequence will occur in any direction until the merger decision is finalized. The probabilities slightly favor the bears simply because the $50 level is a psychological magnet. By the same token, the inability of the bears to get down to that level for the past 50 trading days (when the stock first got down to 51.93) is a bullish statement of some inherent strength. The stock is likely to rally at the beginning of the week with a 54.34-54.83 objective and if that occurs, it could make sense to liquidate and look to re-purchase at a lower price.

ENG saw weakness come in this past week and the intraweek support at .73 get broken. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .61 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock recently made a multi-year low at .48 and that low had not yet been tested on the weekly chart and given that the weekly close support at .68 was not broken on Friday, it is possible and perhaps even likely that a positive reversal week will occur with the stock going below the .61 level but then closing green next Friday (above .68) and a successful retest on the weekly closing chart will have occurred. It is important to mention that if that does occur, an inverted Head & Shoulders formation will have been built that would offer a 1.09 objective if the neckline at .79 is broken thereafter. This chart outlook is more than simple speculation given that these price levels are at book value of the stock and the company has no debt and offers a product that is likely to continue to be in demand and probably grow as green energy becomes more desired. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls for a green close next Friday.

FSLR broke the minor weekly close support at the $60 demilitarized zone and did close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 57.40 is likely to be seen. This minor break does suggest that the uptrend has paused and that some backing and filling is likely to be seen for the next few weeks. The break of the minor support does suggest that the stock is now in the process of testing the weekly close breakout that held the stock down for 9 months at 54.53 or the daily close breakout at 55.65, before the uptrend resumes. There has been no negative fundamental news, suggesting that this move down is all chart oriented and an opportunity to buy. By the same token and holding four mentions at this time, consideration can be given to liquidate some of the positions on a rally back up to the $60 demilitarized zone that is likely to be seen this week. There is some short-term pivotal resistance found at 60.36 that if broken would bring some doubt as to whether the stock will retest the breakout level. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

IBM generated a new sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having close below the previous low weekly closed at 135.09. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to generate a close in the upper half of the week's trading range (just like the indexes did) and a small rally might be seen this week, above last week's high at 136.11. The stock did gap down last week after the company announced a $20 billion Bond offering to finance its purchase of RHT. The Bond offering got a chilly reception and it energized the bears to push the stock down below the 200-day MA, currently at 134.84. It is likely that if the stock does rally this week that the objective will be to close the gap at 137.13. A disappointing Bond offering should not be a valid reason for a gap to stay unclosed. Nonetheless, the bulls did try to close the gap on Thursday with a rally up to 136.11 and a close above the MA line. By the same token, the break above the MA was not confirmed on Friday when the stock once again closed below the line. It is evident that at this time any rally needs the support of the index market to occur. With the indexes likely to generate a small rally at the beginning of the week, the gap is likely to be closed. Nonetheless, if that does not occur and the gap is not closed, the bears will pounce and if able to get below last week's low at 130.96, especially if below the $130 demilitarized zone, there is absolutely no support until the $125 level is reached. Any close above the $140 demilitarize zone will wrest the control away from the bears. Probabilities favor the bears but this week a small rally might occur.

LNTH bulls have had a lot of trouble generating any new buying to the all-time highs made 8 weeks ago at 26.30. They did make a new high at 26.40 2 weeks ago but it brought no new buying interest and last week the stock fell 8% from that high, meaning that traders are starting to doubt that the stock will generate further upside. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to maintain the stock above the important weekly close support area between 23.60 and 24.10 (closed at 24.25 on Friday), meaning that the door is still open for the uptrend to resume. The stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 23.98 is expected to be seen this week. There is short-term pivotal support at 23.58 that if broken would signal that the stock is at least on a pause and that further downside to the 22.30 level would likely be seen. The stock remains long-term bullish but any weekly close below 23.60 would be seen as a negative. Probabilities favor the bears this week but only for a drop down to around the 23.60 level where buying interest should be found.

MCIG continued its downward move to the $.05 level, having generated a new 41-week weekly closing low below the previous one seen 3 weeks ago at .0745. The stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at .065 is likely to be seen this week. It does seem that the fundamental outlook of the stock getting into a .05-.08 trading range is looking highly likely to occur. The bears are in control and there has been no success by the bulls in doing anything but small bounces. The stock is now showing pivotal resistance at .092. There is no reason to trade or hold the stock at this time and as such, this weekly update will end this week and there will be no new updates until the stocks shows some life.


1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .68.

2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.40 (new price (54.01).

3) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.017. (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 58.30. Stock closed on Friday at 58.38.

4) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 10.34.

5) LNTH - Averaged long at 24.34 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 23.18. Stock closed on Friday at 24.25.

6) MCIG - Averaged long at .215 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .069.

7) AAPL - Shorted at 189.49 and at 191.93. Averaged short at 190.71. stop loss at 194.35. Stock closed on Friday at 190.00.

8) IBM - Shorted at 135.35. Stop loss at 137.35. Stock closed on Friday at 134.32.

9) TEVA - Liquidated at 13.01. Averaded long at 14.865. Loss on the trade of $371 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.

10) FSLR - Purchased at 59.46. Liquidated at 58.47. Loss on the trade of $99 per 100 shares minus commissions.

11) CVS - Purchased at 55.60. No stop at present. Stock closed on Friday at 52.88.

12) CPG - Purchased at 3.54. Stop loss at 3.40. Stock closed on Friday at 3.93.

13) ARNA - Purchased at 48.51. Averaged long at 46.62. Stop loss now at 50.82 on a daily closing basis. Stock closed on Friday at 54.01.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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