Issue #604 ![]() Feb 24, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bulls Continue in Control! No End in Sight Yet!
DOW Friday closing price - 26031
The indexes generated yet another green week (the 9th in a row) and once again closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week. The gains continue to pile on but on a weekly closing basis, the bulls have not been able to make a statement of consequence as the resistance levels have not yet been broken convincingly (DOW at 25989, SPX at 2786 and NASDAQ at 7560). By the same token, a second pivotal week is facing the bulls as another green close next Friday would certainly mean that the all-time high weekly closes would be tested, barring any negative news.
The indexes did see some new selling interest this past week as the DOW saw its streak of 8 green close days in a row broken on Thursday when a mini correction occurred. The other indexes also broke a mini streak with the first red day in a 4-day-in-a-row streak occurring. On a possible negative note for the bulls is that the gaps that were made on February 12th (SPX at 2718 and NAZ at 7343) were not closed and remain magnets whenever the momentum stops.
This rally is presently being fed by the probability of a Trade deal between China and the U.S. as both countries have stated that a deal is close. Certainly, the closure of the Tariff War would generate positive economic results on any level of closure. By the same token, it has been anticipated for several weeks now that it is to occur and how much of the benefits of such a closure have already been factored in to the prices is a big question mark. It is certainly possible and perhaps even probable that a good portion of the rally has been factored in already and it might be more than the reality may bring, meaning that it is possible that a resolution would be seen more as a negative to the present price than a positive. On a positive note for the bulls, it seems that an announcement of a trade deal will not be made for another 3-4 weeks as Friday's meeting between the two parties ended up with an agreement that Trump and Xi would meet to finalize such a deal toward the end of March at Mar-a-Lago, meaning that for that period of time the momentum could continue in the index market.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to perhaps decent but pivotal resistance at 26277. Above that level, there is no resistance until decent at the previous all-time intraweek high at 26616, minor to perhaps decent at 26769 and strong at the all-time high at 26951. The SPX shows minor to decent but short-term indicative resistance at 2800 and then pivotal at 2815. Above that level, there is decent resistance at the previous all-time high at 2872 and then nothing until the present all-time high at 2940. The NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 7572 and then decent between 7637 and 7670. The 7637 was the previous all-time intraweek high prior to going up to 8133.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, Thursday's lows in the indexes are all minor but short-term pivotal support. In the DOW it is at 25762, in the SPX it is at 2674 and in the
Even though the bulls this past week were not able to make a clear statement that this rally will continue for much longer and accomplish a retest of the all-time highs, both the SPX and the NASDAQ did join the DOW in breaking above the 200-day MA's. The DOW did break above the line a few weeks ago but the SPX and NAZ just did it this past week. In the SPX that line is at 2747 and in the NAZ it is at 7477. Those lines in those indexes are now pivotal support as a confirmed close below those lines would suggest the rally is over.
Using the monthly chart, especially since Thursday is the end of the month, the DOW shows decent intraweek resistance at 26616 and on a monthly closing basis at 26162. The SPX shows decent intraweek resistance at 2872 and on a monthly closing basis at 2823. The NASDAQ shows decent intraweek resistance at 7637 and on a monthly closing basis at 7411. It is highly unlikely that the bulls in the DOW and SPX will be able to close on Friday above those monthly closing levels. As such, it is unlikely the DOW will close next Friday more than 130 p;oints higher than this past Friday's close and the SPX more than 31 points higher. The NAZ is presently trading above its monthly close resistance but that resistance is nowhere near as important as the ones in the DOW and SPX. If by any chance though, the NAZ closes at 7411 or lower, it would be a bear sign.
Though news of the potential end to the Trade War will continue to dominate the action, at these prices is it difficult for the bulls to generate much more upside as the anticipation of such a deal is probably all factored in already. On Tuesday the Consumer Confidence number comes out and it is expected to be 125%. Last month it was 120% and if it comes in lower than last months, it will be a negative. On Friday, the new GDP advance and ISM Index numbers will come out. GDP came out last month at 3.4% and it is expected the number to be 2.3% this time. The ISM number was 56.7 last month and it is expected to come out at 5.6. If any of these numbers are higher or lower than anticipated, there will be movement.
This week, it is difficult for me to offer a probability rating for either side. The bulls have momentum and they were able to accomplish some unexpected gains last week but the rally has reached levels that are difficult to maintain without some additional fundamental positives coming out. Simply stated, there are good reasons on both sides for the rally to continue or to fail. I am still leaning to the bear side if for no other fundamental reason than the economy is not in better shape than it was in October when the indexes topped out. From a chart point of view, the indexes have accomplished gains (such as 9 green weekly closes in a row) that have only been accomplished once or twice before in the past 30 years and only when the fundamental picture was clearly defined as bullish (which it isn't now). As such, I continue to believe that the all-time highs will not be broken or even tested closely, meaning that to me it is only a matter of "when" the indexes fall and not a matter of "if" the indexes fall. Will it be this week? That is not something I can venture an intelligent opinion on.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Nothing was decided this past week but the bulls remain in control. Levels of resistance started to get broken but not yet convincingly, leaving direction from this area still a toss of the coin. Without a clear market direction, choosing stocks to trade remains an individual event. This weekend I was unable to do much research on new stocks to trade due to previously scheduled obligations so there are no new mentions. Nonetheless, in doing the weekend chart evaluations on held stocks I did find one of them to be a particularly attractive trade because of its own individual chart picture. As such, that is this week's mention.
AAPL Friday Closing Price - 172.97
AAPL is a company that is changing as the IPhone and IPad have lost some of the luster they enjoyed for many years. It is still a very strong company but at this time is is searching for something new to key on for the future and until that happens the stock will be at risk of more bears than bulls trading it.
In looking at the history of AAPL, there is one thing that immediately stands out and that is a 5-month period of time between November 2017 and April 2018 where the stock traded sideways between a low of $150 and a high of $183.50. On that occasion though, the bulls maintained the edge as the stock was on its way to its all-time high at 233.47, meaning that the bulls were able to accomplish more on rallies than the bears on dips. With the scenario now changed to the opposite, it is more likely that the bears will accomplish more on dips than the bulls on rallies.
One thing that stood out during that entire period of time were the weekly closes in AAPL as the chart shows that the 174.67-174.97 area was somewhat of a brick wall, having gone up to that level on 4 different occasions and failing to break through. During that period of time, the high weekly close was 179.98 and the low weekly close being 156.41. The same thing could be seen at this time but given that the 156.41 support was broken in December with a close at 148.26, it does suggest that at this time there is a much higher chance of the stock breaking down than breaking out as it did that year, especially considering that the recent low has not yet been tested and all major lows and major highs usually show at least 1 retest, such as was seen when the stock made the all-time weekly closing high at 227,63 and then 5 weeks later testing that high with a 225.75 close.
AAPL closed on the highs of the week on Friday and further upside above last week's high at 173.32 is expected to be seen this week. As such, it is highly likely that the traders will be testing the weekly close resistance between 174.67 and 174.99. On an intraweek basis, the stock made a high at 175.57 3 weeks ago that has not been broken in spite of 2 additional green weekly closes since. That level is therefore considered short-term pivotal resistance. Nonetheless, above that level and from the 2017/2018 period, there is additional resistance at 176.24, at 177.20, at 178.94 and at 180.10, meaning that even if the recent high is broken, it is unlikely that any great rally will occur. This does suggest that the stop loss mentioned be a mental one given that there is a mountain of resistance above.
Sales of AAPL between 174.50 and 175.00 and using a sensitive but short-term indicative stop loss at 175.67 and having at least a $150 objective will offer a better than 20-1 risk/reward ratio. Preferably, the stop loss should be at 180.35, which would offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AAPL generated another green weekly close, the 7th in a row, and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 173.32 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, for the last 2 green weekly closes the bulls have been unable to get above the intraweek high 175.57 made on the 6th and that is considered a negative, especially when the stock has decent to perhaps even strong weekly close resistance between 174.67 and 174.97, an area where 4 high weekly closes were made between November 2017 and April 2018. With the fundamental picture for the stock being at the lowest level it has been in years, it is highly unlikely that a break of that resistance occurs without some positive fundamental news. Pivotal support is found at 168.42. A break of that level would suggest that at the very least a drop down to 163.33 would be seen. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only for an intraweek rally to the $174-$175 level. Stop loss at 175.77 remains viable. ARNA confirmed the break of resistance that occurred last week with another green weekly close on Friday. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 50.40 is expected to be seen this week. There is decent intraweek resistance at 51.20 from a double high that was made in March and July of 2015 but if reached or broken, further upside is likely to be seen. Old (from 2009) and likely minor resistance would then be found at 56.40 and minor to decent at 59.30. Nonetheless and within the past 5 years, there is no resistance above 51.20 until the 62.80 level is reached. Minor but likely pivotal intraweek support is found a Thursday's low at 49.15. On a daily closing basis, important support is found at 49.63. Two closes in a row below that level would generate a failure signal. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls. AXP was once again a copy-cat to the indexes this week, having made the 9th green week in a row but the bulls failed to generate a new intraweek high to the rally, having generated an inside week. The stock did close on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 107.55 is expected to be seen but now the stock is showing 6 days in a row below the 108.47 high that was made on the 13th and that suggests the bulls are running out of ammunition. The gaps below, which were not based on news, continue to be magnets and unless the indexes continue much higher or some positive fundamental news comes out, the resistance between 108.47 and 108.72 are not likely to be broken. Pivotal support is now found at 106.62 that if broken would likely generate enough selling to close the gaps, with the breakaway gap at 104.52. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but for a limited rally to the upside, likely followed by selling interest toward the end of the week. BIDU reported earnings on Thursday and they disappointed, causing a negative reversal week to occur, having gone above the previous week's high but then going below the previous week's low and closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 164,00 will be seen this week. The chart continues to look strongly bearish and now with the negative reversal week, a bearish inverted flag formation is in place that if the low if the December low at 153.78 is broken will offer at 140.67 objective. Evidently, the recent high at 176.89 prior to the earnings report is now a decent and pivotal resistance that should not be broken without positive fundamental news. Hard stop loss at 176.99 should now be in place. Probabilities strongly favor the bears this week for a drop down to at least the 160.00 level. CCJ showed weakness all week but then on Friday the bulls generated a rally to close above the pivotal breakout level at 12.12, suggesting that the weakness had no significance other than generating one additional retest of support. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 12.33 is expected to be seen this week. The chart now suggests that the next 2 weeks will be decisive as this coming week it is likely the stock will test the recent high at 13.04 with a rally up to the 12.62-12.78 area where some resistance is found and the following week the retest of that high will either be successful or a new high made. With the bulls having broken above the 200-week MA 8 weeks ago and broken a decent weekly close resistance at 12.08/12.12, the probabilities strongly favor the bulls. By the same token, last week's weakness was unexpected and does open the door for the bears to put their toes in. A rally above 12.33 this week (likely) will make last week's low at 11.82 into a pivotal support level that if broken would suggest the 200-week MA, currently at 11.10, would be tested. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG generated a new 13-week intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .90 will be seen this week. The breakout that occurred is indicative as the bulls were unable to get above .80 cents for 6 weeks in a row that the level was reached. With the bears failing to stimulate any new selling, traders are now likely to test the resistance levels above to see if those can be broken. Recent (last 4 months) resistance levels are found at .93 and at .95 and from last year at .96 and decent at .99. A weekly close above .91, followed by an intraweek break above .99 would not only suggest the downtrend is over but that a rally to test the 200-week MA, currently at 1.21, is to occur. It is important to note that the earnings report is due out on March 14th and in the past, rallies prior to the report have occurred. One note of caution, the volume has been dropping consistently over the past 2 months as the stock traded 58,000 shares on December 27th, followed by several weeks in which volume was averaging about 16,000 to the last days when volume was 2500 and 4800. Such a drop in volume suggests the traders are waiting for news before trading the stock. By the same token, the drop in volume while the stock has been rallying, does suggest the traders getting involved at this time are buyers. Pivotal support is now found at .75. Probabilities favor the bulls. FSLR generated a new 6-month intraweek high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 53.64 will be seen this week. More importantly, the stock closed above the 200-week MA, currently at 50.05, for the first time in the last 23 weeks, meaning that the 10-mponth downtrend is over and that further recovery will likely be seen. There is minor to decent resistance at 55.70/55.75 area where a double high exists but if that level is broken (looking likely), the $60-$65 level would then be the objective before any correction occurs. The $50 demilitarized zone is now considered minor to decent support, meaning that stop losses can be raised to 49.65 if and when the stock does go above last week's high. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week. FNSR confirmed last week's breakout on the weekly closing chart by generating another green weekly close but a new 14-month intraweek high was made as well as a new 18-month weekly closing high was made as well. Minor to decent intraweek resistance is found at 25.41 but any weekly close above 24.60 would leave "open air" above until the 27.30 level as there is no resistance between those two levels on a weekly closing basis. Intraweek support is now found at 22.69 but any daily close below 23.44 would generate a failure signal and be reason to liquidate. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls. IBM continued higher this week and generated another new 17-week intraweek and weekly closing high. The stock closed on the high of the week and further upside above last week's high at 139,38 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock closed just $,45 cents from the weekly close breakdown point at 139,70 that generated the drop down to $106 and the bulls now require a positive fundamental change to break through this area. Very minor intraweek resistance is found at 141.40 but on a weekly closing basis, the area between 139.70 and 139.99 is considered decent resistance, meaning that the upside from here seems to be extremely limited. To the downside, there is minor (perhaps very minor) intraweek support at 137.45 and then nothing until minor resistance is found at 132.12. This does suggest that if a top to this rally is found that a drop of consequence is likely to occur, with 116.70 as the objective. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but the key word is slightly. MCIG bulls have been unable to generate any new buying interest and the bears continue to attempt to start a new leg downward. The stock got down to the important and pivotal weekly close support at .155 but the bulls were able to repel that attack and close out the week at .16. Nonetheless, it seems the bulls need some positive catalyst to bring in new buying interest and there doesn't seem to be anything in the schedule at this time what could work as such. As such, the bears will continue to push down until they generate a break of support or the bulls impose themselves. With the drop down to .155 this week, if the sideways trend is to continue, the stock should now be moving up to the top of that trading range at .185. If that doesn't start this week, a break could be seen. Intraweek support is found at .145 but the weekly close support at .155 is pivotal Minor resistance is found at .20 and minor to decent as well as short-term pivotal at .21. A break above .21 would suggest a rally up to the 200-daily MA, currently at .241. Support is now minor to decent as well as pivotal at .155. ORCL made a new 11-month intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 52.60 will be seen this week. The only resistance left is the all-time high at 53.48 and the all-time high weekly close at 52.97, meaning that both of those levels are likely to be tested this week. Nonetheless, the entire area between 51.85 and 53.48 (all-time high) has been a brick wall since first reached in June 2017 (20 months ago) and that means that the bulls will need help to break through. Pivotal support is now found at 49.82. If broken, it will be a sign that the rally has found a top. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .88. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.02 (new price (50.27). 3) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.017. (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 53.73. 4) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 12.25. 5) BIDU - Shorted at 174.37. Stop loss at 176.99. Stock closed on Friday at 167.17. 6) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0495 (new price .589). 7) MCIG - Purchased at .17. Averaged long at .215. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .16. 8) AXP - Shorted at 104.09. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 107.44. 9) FNSR - Purchased at 23.35. Averaged long at 22.39 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 22.23. Stock closed on Friday at 24.19. 10) AAPL - Shorted at 170.93. Stop loss at 175.67. Stock closed on Friday at 170.42. 11) IBM - Shorted at 135.60. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 172.97 12) ORCL - Shorted at 51.42. Stop loss at 53.58. Stock closed on Friday at 52.48. 13) AAPL - Shorted at 172.36. Covered shorts at 172.23. Profit on the trade of $13 per 100 shares minus commissions.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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