Issue #600 ![]() Jan 27, 2019 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Decisive Week Ahead!
DOW Friday closing price - 24737
The indexes generated a totally uneventful week with the DOW closing 30 points higher than the previous week, the SPX closing 6 points lower and the NAZ 6 points higher. Simply stated and using the weekly closes as the guideline, there was no movement nor decisions made. Earnings reports were mostly in DOW stocks but they did come in mixed with a few somewhat better and a few somewhat worse than anticipated but overall not giving any clues for the near future. In addition, it was a week with no economic reports of consequence being released and no change on the Trade War occurring. Simply stated, it was a "throwaway week".
This coming week, things will be changing (possibly dramatically) as just about every important earnings and economic reports for the month/quarter are due to come out. On Tuesday morning, the 20-city Case/Schiller and Consumer Confidence reports are released and after the close AAPL reports. On Wednesday at 2:00 pm, the FOMC rate decision will be given and after the close FB reports. On Thursday morning, Personal Income and Spending and Chicago PMI come out and after the close, AMZN reports. On Friday, the Jobs report and ISM index will be released. Interspersed through the week, earnings on CAT, 3M, VZ, EBAY, GE, and HON will be seen as well. After all of these reports come out this week, the traders should have a clear idea of what is happening to the economy now after the problems seen the past 3 months and what to expect for the next 3 months with the possible exception of the resolution or non-resolution of the Trade talks with China. The confusion and uncertainty having been seen this past month will fade away and be replaced with some short-term direction, both fundamentally and chart-wise.
Though the fundamentals will rule the week, the traders have been working the charts over the past few weeks so that breakouts or breakdowns can easily be determined. Nonetheless, it must be mentioned than other than negating 2 weeks ago the break of the important supports that had held the indexes in an uptrend prior to the December break, the bulls have not been able to make any statements of consequence regarding the near-term future, suggesting that they are still "leaning" toward a downward resolution after this week's reports come out. This does suggest that the reports this week have to be "convincingly bullish" for the negatives to go away. So far, none of the recent earning and economic reports suggest that a bullish outlook is warranted, meaning that the probabilities still slightly favor a bear resolution.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor resistance at 24858, minor to decent at 25086, and decent at 25402. These levels are further supported by the fact they are both found on the daily and weekly chart. The SPX shows minor resistance at 2585, minor to perhaps decent at 2717 and again at 2742. The NASDAQ shows minor resistance at 7205 and then nothing until minor to perhaps decent at 7319. Above that level, there is no resistance until decent as well as pivotal at 7485.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to decent support at 23997 and then short-term pivotal support at 23881. The SPX shows minor to decent support at 2603 and then short-term pivotal at 2583. The NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent at 7050 and then short-term pivotal between 6805 and 6830.
All indexes got up to or close to the first of the resistance levels mentioned above (DOW at 24858, SPX at 2685 and NAZ at 7200) this past week without being able to break them. These resistance levels are minor and not catalytic if broken but they do represent an area that "if not broken", would be decently bearish to them.
It is evident that the DOW will be the key index this week even though the important earnings reports this week are mostly keyed on NASDAQ stocks. The reason for this is that the 200-day MA in the DOW is close by at 24970 and that same line is not close on any of the other indexes (SPX at 2741 and NAZ at 7452). As such and given the importance of the line, the first index where the line will be in play will be in the DOW, having closed just 1% below the line on Friday. A confirmed close above the line will tip the scales in favor of the bears. This will be something the traders will be paying close attention to this week if the indexes can rally.
To the downside, there are no important pivotal levels of support at this time that will trigger strong selling but a drop below last week's lows would give the bears a clear edge. In the DOW last week's low was 24249, in the SPX it was 2612 and in the NASDAQ it was 6953.
I do expect volatility to be the norm this coming week given the amount of important and possibly individually catalytic reports throughout the week. In spite of the 40%+ rally that has been seen since the beginning of the year, the burden of proof is still on the shoulders of the bulls. They need to prove that the economy is continuing on a path of decent to strong growth and not just moseying along. As such, probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There are no advance mentions in the newsletter this week due to the pivotal nature of the week and the uncertainty of direction. Nonetheless, this is a week that will likely decide what the indexes and many stocks will be doing the next 2-3 months. As such, any mentions given will be on the message board after reaction to the reports is seen.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AAPL made a new 5-week weekly closing high and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 158.13 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the 5-week intraweek high at 159.36 has not yet been broken, meaning that the bulls have not yet made any breaks of resistance that are meaningful. The company reports earnings on Tuesday afternoon and it is unlikely that before then any bullish statement of consequence will be made. By the same token, a break of the intraweek resistance by a few points can occur without triggering any new buying spree, especially given that the $160 demilitarized zone will act as psychological resistance. Nonetheless, if the top of the $160 demilitarized zone (160.30) is broken, there is no resistance above until 164.94 and such a rally would suggest that the traders don't feel the earnings report will disappoint. Pivotal support is found at 151.74 that if broken would bring in new selling interest. The stock remains within a bearish flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from 184.94 to 142.00 and the flag the rally back up to 159.36. A break of the bottom of the flag would give an objective 116.42. Such an objective is certainly possible because a break of the flag would also be a break of the 200-week MA, currently at 142.32. The probabilities actually favor the bulls for the simple reason that the 200-week MA has not been broken for 10 years and it is unlikely that things have gotten so bad fundamentally with this company (which has been considered the best for many years) that such a drop could occur easily. ARNA generated a new 18-week high weekly close and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 44.73 will be seen this week. The new multi-week high does give the bulls a strong edge, meaning that the probabilities now favor further upside without any down draft of consequence. By the same token, intraweek resistance is still found at 45.11 (minor), at 45.46 (minor) and at 45.85 (decent). The stock has built a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the 10-day rally from 35.04 to 45.11 and the flag being the 10-day trading range down to 41.73. A rally above 45.11 would offer an upside objective of 51.80, over a 10-day period of time. Pivotal support is now found at 41.72 and the 200-day MA is currently at 41.27. If both of those are broken, the chart outlook will change. The company reports earnings on Wednesday February 6th and until then it is unlikely that the 45.85 level of resistance will break. As such, another week of backing and filling with a slight upward bias is likely to be seen. CCJ generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low and then closing in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 12.11 will be seen this week. More importantly, the bulls were able to rally the stock, after trading as low as 11.46 this week, to close 1 point below last week's mini breakout close and 3 points above the previous weekly close resistance at 12.08, strongly suggesting that the bears have lost all their power. Intraweek resistance is found at 12.47 and at 12.76 but the bulls are likely to work this week at breaking both of those resistance levels and head up to the 32-month high at 13.36. Support will now be found at last week's low at 11.46. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls. CLF made a new 9-week high as the decent intraweek resistance at 9.15 was broken. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 9.76 is expected to be seen this week. There is some minor to perhaps decent resistance at 9.99 but above that level there is open air up to 10.90 where decent resistance is found. The stock has now had 5 green weeks in a row and that has not happened since April 2016 and more than 5 weeks in a row has not occurred since 2011, suggesting that the probabilities favor a red weekly close next Friday. The stock gapped up on Friday between 8.94 and 9.05 and at the end of the day closed above the 200-day MA, currently at 9.43, both actions suggesting some pull back is likely to occur since there was no news reported that would support either of those actions. The stock did break out of a bullish flag formation with an upside objective of 9.79 and given that the high on Friday was 9.76, it can be said the objective has been fulfilled. As such, the traders will be watching whether there is follow through to the upside, whether the resistance at 9.99 is broken, and whether the momentum is waning. If the bulls can get above 9.99 this week, then the bulls have something of consequence occurring. I don't believe the stock is as strong as the action last week showed and as such, I will be considering liquidating the positions and re-buying after the gap has been closed. CRON made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 16.30 will be seen this week. There is no resistance above other than from a 2-point uptrend line that is currently matching up at 17.00. The stock has now generated 5 green weekly closes in a row and a 59% appreciation in value, suggesting that some profit taking might occur once the 17.00 level of "general resistance" is reached. If some profit taking starts to be seen and the momentum stops, a drop back down to the weekly close breakout level at 12.72 might happen over the next few weeks. ENG was unable to confirm the failure signal against the bears given last week, having closed below the .76 level on Friday. Nonetheless, the stock only closed $.01 cents below .76, meaning that it was not a clear sign that the failure signal failed. Nonetheless, the stock did close near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at .73 is expected to be seen this week. Support is now found at .70 that if broken would mean the bears have the edge again. Resistance is clearly defined at .80, having been up to that level every week for the past 4 weeks without breaking it. As such, this week the traders will be looking at .70 and .80 cents as the pivotal areas. Company reports earnings on Thursday February 7th, suggesting that nothing of consequence will occur this week. FSLR made a new 17-week intraweek and weekly closing high and did reach the stated $50 objective, having seen a high of 50.10 this past week. The stock did close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above 50.10 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the 200-week MA is currently at 50.30 and getting above that line on a weekly closing basis does require some additional positives to occur. On a positive fundamental note, solar energy has seen a resurgence of interest of late given the lower cost of solar panels and with this company having been as high as 81.78 just 9 months ago and having buy ratings with a $57+ objectives, the chances of the 200-week MA getting broken are now high. Very minor intraweek resistance is found at 50.21 and again at 50.71 and then nothing until decent between 53.00 and 53.63. Pivotal support is now found at last week's reversal low at 45.77. Chart suggests that the stock will head up to the $53 level before seeing any new selling come in. A trading range between $47 and $53 until the next earnings report comes out on February 21 is the most likely scenario. FNSR generated a positive reversal week having gone below the previous week's low and above the previous week's high and closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21.99 is expected to be seen this week. The stock did make a new 5-week intraweek high and shows no resistance whatsoever until the 23.00 level is reached. The chart is quite bullish, given that a bullish flag formation is in place with the flagpole being the rally from 15.91 to 23.68 and the flag the action seen the past 8 week with a low at 20.38. The flag offers and upside objective of 28.15 which coincides with a previous resistance level of consequence, In addition, the stock has now traded for 12-weeks in a row above the 200-week MA, currently at 20.50, and having tested that level successfully 5 weeks ago, the chart seems fulfilled for the bulls to generate a rally of consequence. Probabilities favor the bulls. MCIG had a very uneventful inside week with no clues or decisions being made. Nonetheless, with Cannabis stocks generally moving higher, resolution of this non-eventful trading is likely to be to the upside. The .18 level proved to be resistance the last 3 days of the week and especially with the 200 10-minute MA currently there. That line has not been broken to the upside for the past 9 days and if broken this week will likely generate new buying interest. The same can be said about the.17 cent level to the downside. Support is found at .152 and pivotal at .142. Pivotal resistance is found at .21. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. MDT had a very uneventful inside week, having had a trading range 44% of what was seen the previous week and 26% of what was seen the week before that. Nonetheless, the stock has not returned to the bear slanted trend that it had been in effect the previous 6 weeks, suggesting that the bears have lost their edge. This is supported by the recent upgrades by several rating companies to a buy rating from a hold. The stock is showing a bullish flag formation with the flag being the rally from the recent low at 81.66 to the recent high at 88.62 and the flag being the trading range the last 5 days down to 85.91. A break of the top of the flag would offer an objective of 92.87. Support is found between 85.18 and 85.91. Resistance is found at 88.62, at 89.08 and then nothing until 91.21. Nonetheless, all of these resistance levels are minor in nature. The 200-day MA is currently at 89.85 and will serve as resistance on a daily closing basis. The one negative on the chart that still exists is that the stock gapped up between 84.98 and 85.03 on the day the upgrades came out and upgrades normally are not a good reason for a gap to stay unclosed. Nonetheless and given that the recent low at 81.66 has not yet been tested on the weekly chart, traders are likely waiting for that to occur before getting involved on the buy side in a stronger way. Last week's low was 85.91 and if that is broken this week, such a retest will become possible. Probabilities are even for this week. SLCA continued higher this week, generating the 5th green weekly close in a row. The stock closed on Friday within $.43 cents of an important and pivotal level of weekly close resistance at 14.47 and given that oil also closed near an important pivotal point of weekly close resistance at 53.99, it does suggest that both are at an important pivot point area and that some decision will be made this coming week or at the latest the next. Last week's low at 12.97 is considered support for this week. If broken, the bears will get their edge back. Resistance on an intraweek basis is found at 14.20, at 14.73, at 15.43 and pivotal and indicative at 15.72. The stock has built a bullish inverted Head & Shoulders formation, meaning that the probabilities have now shifted a bit toward the bulls. Nonetheless, a failure here with a drop below 12.97 would be a negative.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .75. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.45 (new price (44.57). 3) CLF - Averaged long at 8.976 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.61. 4) FSLR - Averaged long at 49.51. (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 49.86. 5) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.637 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 12.11. 6) CRON - Averaged long at 9.577 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 16.02. 7) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0447 (new price .5374). 8) SLCA - Averaged long at 16.85 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.04. 9) MCIG - Purchased at .17. Averaged long at .215. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .1751. 10) MDT - Purchased at 84.20. Stop loss at 82.93. Stock closed on Friday at 87.02. 11) AAPL - Shorted at 157.09. Stop loss at 159.46. Stock closed on Friday at 157.76. 12) FNSR - Purchased at 21.43. Stop loss at 20.28. Stock closed on Friday at 21.90
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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