Issue #585 ![]() Sep 30, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Mixed Signals Remain but Bulls Continue With the Edge!
DOW Friday closing price - 26458
Once again the indexes generated a mixed week but this week it was the opposite of last week given that it was the NASDAQ that rallied and the DOW and SPX that generated red weekly closes. By the same token, the signals given by the closes do suggest that the bulls remain in control. The DOW did generate a failure signal, having closed below the previous all-time high weekly close at 26616 after having made a new all-time high weekly close but the DOW has not been the key index for a couple of years and therefore what the other indexes did carries more weight. The bears did have an opportunity to generate a sell signal in the SPX by closing below 2901 on Friday but the best they could do is drop the index to a 2907 low. The bulls were able to generate a green weekly close in the NAZ and above the high made 2 weeks ago at 8010, which did negate the possible successful retest of the all-time high weekly close at 8109, and kept the door open for further upside and perhaps even a new all-time high weekly close.
The reality is that there has been no negative economic news that would give the bears some fundamental ammunition to take the indexes lower and given that the ISM Index and JOBS reports are due out this week and are due to come out only marginally lower than the previous ones last month, which were better than expected, it does not seem likely that the bears will be able to make a negative statement next week. The week after, the earnings reports start to come out and those are expected to continue to show growth, suggesting further support will be given to the bulls. As such, it seems unlikely that the bears will be able to accomplish anything, especially given that they mostly failed last week.
By the same token, it is unlikely that new highs in the indexes will be made this week or the week after as the economic reports are not due to come out better than expected and the week after only 3 earnings reports come out (C, JPM and WFC) and those are not likely to be so much better than expected or pivotal earnings reports for the market, as to help the indexes make new all-time highs. As such, the action the next 2 weeks should show quite a bit of backing and filling but with a slight bias to the upside.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows decent resistance at the previous all-time intraweek high at 26616 and decent to perhaps strong at the all-time intraweek high at 267769. The SPX will now show minor to perhaps decent resistance at 2931 and decent at the all-time high at 2940. The NASDAQ shows decent resistance at the all-time intraweek high at 8133.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW now shows minor support at last week's low at 26349 and then minor but likely pivotal support at 26000 demilitarized zone. The SPX now shows minor support at 29.03, again at 2886 and minor to perhaps decent but mid-term pivotal support at 2864. The NASDAQ now shows minor support at 7912, at 7890 and minor to decent as well as mid-term pivotal at 7873.
The probabilities seems to suggest that the traders will continue to trade in a mixed way with the NASDAQ getting most of the buying and the DOW getting most of the selling. It would not be surprising to see over the next 2 weeks the DOW heading down to the 26000 demilitarized zone while the NAZ tests and perhaps even makes a new all-time high. The SPX is likely to have a slight upward bias but until the Financial earnings reports come out, it is unlikely that a new all-time high will be made.
The probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week but not in an indicative way.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The bias for the next 3-4 weeks is going to be to the upside but not likely in a strong way. As such, I found 1 stock that just made a new 52-week low but there are several reasons to believe that further downside is unlikely to happen due not only to chart reasons but also fundamental. In addition, 2 of the 3 stocks that I gave last week as possible purchases remain. One has the same desired entry point and the other a new one.
OLN Friday Closing Price - 25.68
OLN has been under sell pressure since January when it reached an all-time high at 38.84. Nonetheless, as little as 4 weeks ago, the stock received an upgrade from Standpoint Research with a $36-$38 objective when the stock was trading at $30.
For the past 4 weeks OLN has continued to fall, likely due to a $120 million settlement with the EPA for cleanup of a hazardous material site that was announced on September 6th, and that has caused the stock to fall to a low of 25.64 on Friday. Such a settlement was expected previous to the announcement, meaning that further downside will be difficult to achieve for the bears, given that the $25 level has proven to be a decent support level for the past 7 years and that the stock has fallen 20% since the announcement, suggesting that much further downside is unlikely to be seen.
OLN broke the 200-week MA, currently at 26.65, which it has been above since November 2016 (23 months) and did close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below 25.64 will be seen this week. The MA line and the support below is likely to stop the fall and the line will at least be a magnet for the stock to move back up to that price.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, OLN shows minor to perhaps decent support between 24.71 and 24.92 with 24.71 being a strong low that held up for 9 months and did generate a rally back up to 29.28. On a weekly closing basis, the $25 level has proven to be decent support all the way back April 2011, given that there have been 5 occasions where an important high or low has been made in that area at (26.03, 25.37, 25.71, 25.65 and 25.77) during that 7-year period of time.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, OLN shows "old" resistance at 28.08, at 29.28 and at 29.57. Above that level, there is more current resistance at 30.40, at 31.55 and pivotal at 32.00. On a weekly closing basis, there is resistance at 26.65 (MA) and also at the breakdown point between 28.28 and 28.72.
The probabilities are very high that a bounce from the $25 level up to at least the $28 level will occur but the upgrade with a target of $36-$38 has not yet been recanted, meaning that there is a possibility of the trade offering more profits.
Purchases of OLN between 25.36 and 24.92 and using a stop loss at 24.65 and having at least an upside objective of 28.26 will offer at least a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). The rating would be higher if the fundamental picture was not cloudy.
These 2 mentions from last week remain unfilled. One though (RIG) has a new chart scenario that if fulfilled would generate a new desired entry point.
EDC - Friday Closing Price - 84.78
Desired entry point is around 76.05. Stop loss point is at 72.25 and objective is at least the $100 level.
RIG Friday Closing Price - 13.95
The stock did not drop this past week and did generate a new 19-month weekly closing high. Nonetheless, the bulls have not yet been able to generate a new intraweek high or a new daily closing high. If the stock gets above 14.34 and generates a new daily closing high above 14.08, I will be a buyer using a stop loss at 13.33. Objective remains the $20 level.
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018, as of 9/1 Profit of $4986 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for September per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
NONE
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.
TXN (short) $692 Total Profit for September, per 100 shares and after commissions $2827 Closed out losing trades for September per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
NONE
Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. IBM (short) $443 Total Loss for September, per 100 shares, including commissions $443 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 10/1
CCJ (long) $197
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
ARNA (long) $287 CCJ (long) $99 CLF (long) $783 Total $1710 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 10/1
LVS (long) $59
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
MT (short) $130 Total $668 Status of trades for month of September per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Profit of $3426
Status of account/portfolio for 2018, as of 9/30Profit of $8412 using 100 shares traded per mention.
ARNA bulls made a statement this week, having made a new 3-month high and breaking above the decent resistance between 45.45 and 45.85. The stock did close on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 46.02 is expected to be seen. Minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 47.64, again at 49.66 and decent at the multi-year high at 50.05. The reason for the rally this past week is fundamental since the results of one of the Clinical Trials was released, suggesting the rally is supported fundamentally. Minor to decent support is now found at 43.06 and short-term pivotal at 42.40. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, the stock should no longer generate a daily close below 43.86. A rally up to 47.64 should be the minimum seen this week. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.
AXP generated a spike down week, a red weekly close and a close at the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 106.28. Nonetheless, with the indexes likely to be supported during the next few weeks, this mini correction should be used to cover the short positions (at a loss) and consider re-shorting the stock on the retest of the all-time high at 111.77, perhaps to be been seen in about 3-4 weeks. Downside objective this week could be as low at 103.85 but the reality is that there is a minor but likely short-term indicative support at 104.55 that may be reached but likely not broken. I would venture an educated guess and say that the low for this week (and perhaps for this correction) will be between 105.55 and 105.89. Intraweek resistance is now found at 107.43 that is broken could suggest no further downside will be seen. I am going to cover the shorts this week. CCJ generated a spike rally this week due to a ruling in favor of the company regarding taxes. The stock gapped up between 9.99 and 11.02 and due to the fact that it was based on news, the gap should not be closed. Several companies upgraded the stock to outperform with an $18-$20 objective. The stock closed slightly below the 200-week MA, currently at 11.55, meaning that a green or red close next Friday would be highly indicative. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.96 will be seen. Decent intraweek resistance is found between 12.15 and 12.19 that if broken would give the bulls new ammunition to take the stock higher, likely with 13.36 being the next resistance level of consequence. Support will be found at 11.02 that should not be broken. If broken, some questions may begin to arise. Probabilities favor the bulls. CLF got up to the weekly close objective at 13.00 with a high last week at 13.10 but selling interest at that level was evident, given that the stock backed off down to 12.47 and closed at the halfway point of the week's trading range at 12.66. Nonetheless, the probabilities are high that a weekly close at or near the 13.00 will be made, meaning that further upside is likely to be seen. There is no intraweek resistance found until minor at 15.40, so on an intraweek basis, further upside above 13.10 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the selling interest seen does strongly suggest that a weekly close above 13.00 is not likely to be seen. Drops after the weekly close objective is reached are likely to be at least back down to the $10 demilitarized zone. I took profits on half of my positions at 13.07 and plan to take profits on the rest of the positions on a rally above 13.10. ENG continues to meander around the 1.00 level based on a weekly close. The stock for the past 7 weeks has closed at 1.02, at 1.01, at 1.04, at .99, at 1.03, at 1.00 and on Friday at 1.02, suggesting neither the bulls nor the bears have the edge at this time. During this time frame, the stock has remained above the 200-day MA, currently at .98, meaning that the bulls maintain a slight edge. Intraweek resistance is at 1.12 and support at .98. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. FSLR generated an inside week but with a red weekly close and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 47.69 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the low for the week was seen on Friday and the stock turned around to close at the highs of the day, suggesting that if it goes above Friday's high at 48.59 that the needed/required successful retest of the 11-month low at 47.34 will have occurred on the daily chart. If the bulls can then get above last week's high at 50.71, new buying interest will be seen. The stock could still make a new low below last week's low at 47.69 and even below 47.34 as multi-year intraweek support is found at 47.04. Nonetheless, the rally to 50.71 this past week and Friday's action suggests this area is a level of buying interest for the traders. LVS made a new 16-month low this past week and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 59.04 will be seen. The action suggests that the bulls are still not getting involved in a big way and that a drop down to the 200-week MA, currently at 57.74 will be seen. Given that the MA is only valid on a weekly closing basis, further downside below that level could be seen. Intraweek support is not found until the low 56's are reached. It does seem this trade will be a loser the first time around. Intraweek resistance is found at 60.92 and 61.80 (all minor) and then pivotal at 62.70, which is the level that needs to be broken to generate new buying interest. I presently have a stop loss at 59.00 but based on the weakness seen, if the stock rallies above my entry point at 59.92, I am likely to scratch the trade and then look to re-buy around the 57.00 level. Probabilities favor the bears. MT generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 8-week high but then closing red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 30.71 will be seen this week. The bears remain in control given that the previous intraweek high at 32.93 was not broken (got up to 32.73). Minor support is found at the $30 demilitarized zone and then nothing until 28.24. Pivotal support is found at 27.97. The probabilities continue to favor the bears but this past week's rally does suggest that there is some buying interest now that was not there before. Stop loss remains at 33.03. SLCA continued the downtrend that it has been in for the since May, having made a new 31-month low this past week. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 17.92 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis the stock got down to a 2-point trend line that started in 2012 (6 years) and that is likely to hold up, meaning that even if the stock goes below last week's intraweek low this week that next Friday's close should be green, given that the stock closed on Friday at the trend line at that is at 18.45. Intraweek support of some consequence is found at 17.10. Minor resistance is found at 20.65 and at 21.11 and minor to perhaps decent but short-term pivotal at 21.44. In addition, the stock reached the objective at 18.00 that was set when the stock broke below the 25.00 level, meaning that there are several reasons why the traders should be interested in buying this area. TXN generated an inside week but did close red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 105.98 is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, due to the likely upward bias in the index market over the next few weeks, consideration should be given to taking profits this week on a drop below last week's low. Weekly close support is found at 105.36 and there is intraweek support at 104.66, meaning that somewhere in that area taking profits should be considered. There is no intraweek resistance above until last week's high at 110.90 though on a daily closing basis, there is daily close resistance at the 200-day MA, currently at 108.95. I do plan to take profits this week.
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1) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.02. 2) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.60 (new price (46.02). 3) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 12.66. 4) FSLR - Averaged long at 54.21. (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 48.42. 5) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.005 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 9.29. Stock closed on Friday at 11.42. 6) IBM - Covered shorts at 150.77. Loss on the trade of $344 per 100 shares minus commissions. 7) LVS - Purchased at 59.92. Stop loss at 59.01. Stock closed on Friday at 59.33. 8) AXP - Averaged short at 102.93 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 106.49. 9) CLF - Liquidated at 13.07. Purchased at an average price of 6.16. Profit on the trade of $1848 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions. 10) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .090 (new price 1.07). 11) MT - Shorted at 32.48. Averaged short at 31.90 (2 mentions). Stop loss is at 33.03. Stock closed on Friday at 30.86. 12) SLCA - Purchased at 17.98. Stop loss at 16.95. Stock closed on Friday at 18.83. 13) TXN - Shorted at 108.85. Stop loss at 110.35. Stock closed on Friday at 107.29.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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