Issue #567 ![]() May 13, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bulls Get "the Edge", Suggesting Correction is Over!
DOW Friday closing price - 24831
All the indexes made a new 7-week high and all gave new buy signals, having broken above the April 18th highs this past week, suggesting that 4-month correction or mid-term downtrend phase that started on January 26th has ended. Nonetheless, the probabilities do not favor the uptrend resuming but a sideways trend being seen during the summer months, given that summer has not been known for rallies of consequence occurring as it is seasonally the slowest growing period of the year.
All indexes closed near the highs of the week, suggesting that further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW above 24868, SPX above 2732 and NAZ above 7417) .
The NASDAQ and the Tech sector continue to lead the way and as such, the chart evaluations regarding short-term direction will be based on that index at this time. What that index does, it is likely the others will follow as well.
The NASDAQ had not yet generated a retest of its all-time high (like the others already have), meaning that the rally likely to be seen this week will probably become such a retest. The index does have an open gap on the weekly chart from 7421 and 7463 and given that the correction or mid-term downtrend is over and that the fundamental picture no longer supports the gap, the traders are likely to target closure of the gap this week or next. By the same token, the all-time high seen in January at 7505 offers a target to the upside but also offers a resistance that likely requires a positive fundamental outlook for the summer to break and that is not the case at this time.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the NASDAQ shows minor resistance between 7415 and 7438, decent at 7505 and strong at the all-time high at 7637. The DOW shows very minor resistance at the 25000 demilitarized zone, minor at 25293 and minor to perhaps decent between 25432 and 25449. Above that level, there is decent as well as pivotal resistance at 25800 that if broken would change the midterm outlook. The SPX shows very minor resistance at 2735, minor to perhaps decent at 2754 and then minor to decent at 2785 and decent as well as pivotal at 2801.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the NASDAQ shows very minor support at 7285, minor to perhaps decent at 7194, and minor to decent at 7084. Below that level, there is support at 6991 that if broken would put the bears back in control. The DOW shows minor support at 24453, minor to perhaps decent at 24217 and the minor to perhaps decent but indicative support at 23823. Below that, there is support at 23531 that if broken would turn the chart bearish. The SPX shows very minor support at 2694, minor to decent at 2647, and minor to decent but likely indicative at 2612. Below that level, there is decent support at 2594 that if broken would turn the chart bearish.
The outlook for the next 2 months (until the next round of earnings reports start coming out in October) is for the NASDAQ to trade in a 400 point trading range between 7505 and 7084. The DOW is likely to trade between 25300 and 24000 and the SPX between 2760 and 2640. It is highly unlikely that there will be the kind of news the bulls need to resume the uptrend. By the same token, the door is always open for the downside if the news coming out of the White House takes a turn for the worse.
For this week, the bulls have a clear target to the upside and there doesn't seem to be any reports scheduled that would upset the outlook given above. Nonetheless, once the upside objectives are reached, the indexes are likely to drift lower during the summer months.
Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There is only 1 mention this week in a stock that is not likely to be affected by the index market and a stock that did get new reasons to consider a purchase, if and when it gets down to the desired entry point.
Otherwise this is not a good week to consider new positions, given that it is expected the overall market will rally but not enough to consider purchases. I do believe that "after" this week, if and when the market acts as expected, there will be some good short positions to consider the following weekend.
PURCHASES
FSLR Friday Closing Price - 72.78
FSLR received an rating upgrade from J.P. Morgan on Thursday from neutral to overweight and with a target of $75 and the stock rallied 6% in value. Nonetheless, just previous to the rating change the stock had fallen 21% off of a worse than expected earnings report, meaning that the gap that was created on Thursday between 69.91 and 70.77 should be closed as gaps off of ratings increases rarely stay open.
Nonetheless, the Solar Industry is enjoying one of their best years and that trend should continue, meaning that purchasing the #1 U.S. stock in the industry seems like a good investment.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, FSLR shows minor to perhaps decent support at 69.07 and then minor to decent support at 67.01. Below that level, there is decent as well as pivotal support at 65.05.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, FSLR shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 74.68, minor to decent at 76.61, minor to decent again at 78.95 and then decent as well as longer term pivotal at 81.72.
FSLR two weeks ago broke an important and pivotal daily close support level at 66.70 but just 3 days later the break was negated, suggesting that the bears were only in control for a couple of days after the earnings report but then the bulls starting buying the dip.
The upgrade gave a $75 upside objective but the chart suggests that at the very least the rally should take the stock up to 76.61 if not higher. As such, dips back down to support, which would include closure of the gap, do seem to be a good buying opportunity.
Purchases of FSLR around the 69.05 level and using a stop loss at 66.65 and having a 76.61 objective will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA generated a new 34-month weekly closing high on Friday and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 45.09 will be seen this week. The 34-month intraweek high is at 45.85 and the probabilities favor that level getting broken as well given that there isn't any possibly negative reports due out this week. Above 44.85 there is no intraweek resistance until 47.20 is reached. Nonetheless, between 47.20 and 47.90 there are 3 minor resistance levels found. Above that level, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance at 49.05 and at 49.70 and then decent at 51.20. On a weekly closing basis though, the stock is at a minor short-term pivotal resistance area between 45.00 and 45.30, meaning that next Friday's close will likely determine what the stock will do for the next 6-8 weeks. A red weekly close next Friday would suggest a drop back down to the $39 level would likely be seen. A green close above 45.30 would suggest further upside, likely to the $50 level, is on the horizon. Probabilities favor the bulls. AXP made a new all-time high weekly close on Friday, above the previous one at 101.08 (closed at 101.42). Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to make a new all-time intraweek high above 102.96, having gotten up to 102.68 on Friday and backing off to close on the lows of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside below Friday's low at 101.27. If that occurs, a successful retest of the all-time high will occur on the intraweek and with absolutely no support until minor support at 99.97 is reached, it could become an important and decisive week given that a red weekly close next Friday below 101.08 would create a double top of consequence on the weekly closing chart. There is a dearth of support of any consequence below until the $98 and the $96 levels are reached. A drop this week below last week's low at 98.29 would be a bearish sign of consequence. The probabilities slightly favor the bulls but the chart says that this is a pivotal week. CALM generated an uneventful inside week but the stock did close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 48.25 will be seen this week. Minor to decent intraweek resistance is found at 48.40 but above that level there is no resistance of consequence until the $50 level is reached. This does suggest that consideration should be given to taking profits if the 48.40 level is breached. Support of some consequence is found at 46.05 and then pivotal support at 45.60. Probabilities continue to slightly favor the bears, especially considering the bulls were unable to rally the stock much on a week the indexes gave a buy signal. CCJ extended its rally on a weekly closing basis, having generated another new 13-month weekly closing high. Nonetheless, there were a few new signs of selling interest, starting with the fact that the stock generated an inside week as on an intraweek basis no new highs were made. The 200-week MA, currently at 12.29, continues to be the main objective of this rally but that line is now 5 points lower than it was the previous week and only $.78 cents from Friday's close (6%), and considered that the line is unlikely to be broken the first time around, especially considering that it has not been broken convincingly (for more than a few weeks) since 2010 and not broken at all for the past 4 years, strong consideration should be given to taking profits if the line is reached this week. Minor support is found at 11.20 and possibly short-term pivotal at 11.04. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. CLF made a new 4-month high this past week and closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.63 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance of some consequence will be found at 8.77 and then decent as well as longer term pivotal at 9.15. The stock did close on the lows of the day on Friday and further downside below Friday's low at 8.40 is likely to be seen on Monday. Minor support is found at 8.12 and a bit stronger and likely more indicative at 7.74. Any daily close below 7.97 would now be a "deflator". Evidently, the stock is now reaching an important pivotal area at 9.15 that if broken would give the bulls strong new chart ammunition for a run to the $10 level. Probabilities do favor the bulls but only slightly as this stock has seen a lot more selling pressure than buying interest for the past 15 months and it is not going to be easy for the bulls to generate the kind of a breakout at this time that is meaningful. A failure to get above 9.15 on this run, suggests the stock will fall back to the 7.00 before another attempt to the upside is seen. ENG reported earnings this past week and though they were slightly disappointing on the earnings front, they were better on the income and expense basis (outlook for the future). The stock generated a new 7-month weekly closing high as well as a spike up rally and a close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at .95 will be seen this week. Decent intraweek resistance is found at .96 and then decent to perhaps strong at .99. A break above .99 would offer open air until at least 1.10, if not up to the 1.30 area that has been so pivotal so often over the past 3 years. The bulls are committed to breaking above the .99 level this week as anything less than that would be disappointing. It is important to note that the 200-day MA is currently at .98 and that line has not been broken to the upside since April 2017, meaning that this week will be a "battle week" between the bulls and the bears. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls given the strong bottom that has been built over the past 7 months. FCEL generated another slightly positive week, having made a new 4-week intraweek highs. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to accomplish anything of consequence, having closed unchanged for the week, leaving the weekly close resistance at 2.01 untouched. Though nothing of consequence occurred this week, the bulls continue to increase their edge after 7 months of building and testing support over and over again. Minor resistance is found at 1.99 and then nothing but stronger at 2.10/2.11. Traders are likely to wait for the earnings report that comes out June 7th, meaning that for the next 4 weeks much of the same kind of sideways trading is likely to be seen. Nonetheless, the chances of something positive occurring before that have increased. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. MSFT generated a new all-time intraweek high on Thursday and a new weekly closing high on Friday and did close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 97.95 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the new high was only by 5 points and it did not stimulate any new buying of consequence as the volume actually dropped rather than increased. Over the past 3 months, the stock has actually made a total of 3 new all-time highs and the previous 2 failed to generate any follow through of consequence to the upside and within 1-3 days the stock was trading down and within a week or two, a correction of anywhere from 6-10% occurred. I don't see anything much different happening at this time. As such, the stop loss at 98.00 will remain a mental stop loss only to be triggered if the bulls are able to make a strong statement. Minor but likely pivotal support is now found at 95.05. The previous 2 new all-time highs were 1.7% and 1% above the previous high, meaning that it is possible to see the stock get up to as high as 98.90 or even 99.56. Anything less than that would be a negative sign. Probabilities for the bulls this week but not for longer than 1 week. RENN bears failed to generate any further downside after last week's spike drop and close near the lows of the week, suggesting the selling interest has waned. It was an inside week but with a close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.95 will be seen this week. If that occurs, much of the selling pressure will be relieved and the stock is likely to additionally recover. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, having made a new 8-day low and then turning around to close in the green and near the highs of the day, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 8.83 will be seen on Monday. In addition, a rally above 8.83 on Monday will make Friday's low at 8.43 into the required/needed retest of the low at 8.34. A break above last week's high at 8.95 shows open air above until the 200-day MA, currently at 9.37, is reached. Nonetheless, previous intraweek resistance is not found until 9.75 is reached. A new low below 8.34 would be considered a strong negative. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .1625 (new price 1.95). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .95. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.49 (new price (44.99). 4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 6.30. Stock closed on Friday at 8.42. 5) RENN - Purchased at 8.51. Averaged long at 9.795 (2 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 8.78. 6) CCJ - Averaged long at 9.585 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 11.51. 7) MNK - Liquidated at 13.03. Averaged long at 25.18. Loss on the trade of $2430 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 9) CALM - Shorted at 50.17. Stop loss is at 50.55. Stock closed on Friday at 47.80 10) MSFT - Covered shorts at 95.14. Averaged short at 95.91. Profit on the trade of $154 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 11) MSFT - Shorted at 96.43. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 97.70. 12) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss now at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.95. 13) AXP - Shorted at 100.06 and at 102.55. Averaged short at 101.305 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 103.06. Stock closed on Friday at 101.42.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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