Issue #563 ![]() April 2, 2018 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Small Market Rally Baffles Traders. Meaningful or Cautionary?
DOW Friday closing price - 24013
The indexes all generated green weekly closes on Friday with the NASDAQ generating a positive reversal week (new 5-week low and a green close) and the DOW and the SPX failing to go below the previous weeks low in spite of closing on the lows of the week the previous Friday and closing green. All indexes closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW above 24446, SPX above 2674 and NAZ above 7255).
The rally this past week was somewhat unexpected given that from a fundamental view there was no news that came out that would have given ammunition to the bulls and allowed them to turn around the strong momentum to the downside that had been seen the previous week. As such, the probabilities favor the reversal of short-term trend being chart oriented given that the 200-day MA in the SPX has been tested successfully twice in the past 2 weeks. The first retest occurred a week ago Friday when the index got down to 2585 and then bounced up 3.4% to 2674 and the second retest occurred on Wednesday with the 2593 low and Thursday's rally above Wednesday's high. It is also possible that the traders were unwilling to stay aggressively short given the 2 important economic reports due out this week.
Nonetheless, the fact remains that Friday's rally did not negate any of the recent bearish signs/formations that are in place given that the inverted bear flags in the DOW and SPX remain and the breakaway/runaway gaps in all indexes remain as well. As such, the probabilities favor Friday's rally being chart oriented as well as perhaps a cautionary move by the traders since the 2 most important economic reports for the month (ISM Index and Jobs) come out this week.
By the same token and playing Devil's Advocate, a retest of the strong February correction lows was expected to occur and with the drops seen the last 2 weeks in all indexes it can now be said that the retest has been fully accomplished and that the road is clear for the uptrend to resume. It is possible and perhaps even likely that the answer to that question will be resolved this week.
The bears remain with the edge as far as the chart formations are concerned. The breakaway/runaway gaps in all indexes remain unclosed and the bearish inverted flag formations in the DOW and the SPX remain as well. In addition, the NASDAQ continues to underperform the other indexes and an indicative-of-a-major-top island remains in place. This week and because of the rally seen on Friday, some of those formations are likely to be tested and if negated, the chart outlook would change.
The first obstacle for the bulls this week will be the inverted flag formations in the DOW and the SPX. Last week's highs (DOW at 24446 and SPX at 2674) are the bottom of the inverted flags and if broken convincingly, the flags would be negated. Getting above last week's highs is expected to occur this week given the closes in the upper half of the week's trading ranges but if those breaks are minimal in nature (no more than about 20-40 points in the DOW and no more than 2-4 points in the SPX), the flags will remain viable. If the bottom of the inverted flags are broken convincingly, then the runaway gaps will become the next obstacle (DOW between 24526 and 24655 and SPX between 2695 and 2709). If those gaps are closed, the bulls are likely to turn around and go long in a big way.
The economic reports this week could have a say in what happens. The ISM Index is due out on Monday and the expected number is 60 (last month it was 60.8). A higher number would be a bullish sign while a lower than expected number would be disappointing to the bulls. On Wednesday, the Factory orders number comes out and it is expected to be +1.8%. A higher number would be positive while a lower number negative. By the same token, this report is not likely to be catalytic to the indexes. Lastly, the Job Report comes out on Friday and the non-farm payrolls are expected to be 175k. The previous month, there was a big upward surprise (came in at 325k) and that generated a rally in the market. As such, this number will be the most watched/anticipated for the week.
To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW will show minor to perhaps decent resistance at 24446 and then minor but indicative resistance at 24526. Above that level, there is minor but pivotal resistance at 24977. In the SPX the same situation is seen given that there is minor to perhaps decent resistance at 2674 and the minor but indicative resistance at 2695. Above that level, there is minor but pivotal resistance at 2739. In the NASDAQ, there is minor resistance at 7170 and then minor to perhaps decent at 7255. Above that level, there is minor but indicative resistance at 7303 and then minor but pivotal resistance at 7415.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 23708, minor to perhaps decent at 23509 and then decent as well as pivotal at 25330. In the SPX, there is minor support at 2593, decent and likely short-term pivotal at 2585 and decent again as well as longer term pivotal at 2532. In the NASDAQ, there is minor to decent as well as short-term pivotal support at 6901. Below that, there is minor to perhaps decent but also short-term pivotal support at 6737, which is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at that price. Below that, there is decent and longer term pivotal support at the February low at 6630.
Though this coming week could be pivotal based on the economic reports scheduled, the probabilities continue to favor the bears by a small edge. The economic reports are unlikely to be so different from what is expected as to change the chart picture. As such, the chart remain short-term bearish, at least until the earnings reports start coming out on April 13th (C, JPM and WFC). The time frame for the bears accomplishing the downside targets has shrunk given that this coming week will likely see a slight bullish bias and therefore will leave the bears with less than a week to push down before the earnings reports start coming out. This does reduce the edge the bears have but does not negate it. Nonetheless, all could change this week.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There are no mentions this week as the market is presently directionless and that is not likely to change (if at all) until Friday and the Jobs report.
The bears were in control the previous week but lost that control last week when the bears were unable to follow through to the downside after the previous Friday's weak close on the lows of the week. As such, traders will likely wait for the Jobs report (or catalytic news) before making decisions. This week should be all range trading but with no meaningful changes unless some bearish or bullish news comes out.
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2018, as of 3/1 Profit of $352 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for March per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
TOL (long) $133
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. AAPL (short) $353 Total Profit for March, per 100 shares and after commissions $486 Closed out losing trades for March per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
IBM (short) $319
IBM (short) $118 MNK (long) $196 AAPL (short) $259 ARNA (long) $83 ARNA (long) $135 IBM (short) $113 TXN (short) $103 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.
PTC (short) $223 Total Loss for March, per 100 shares, including commissions $4675 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 3/31
IBM (short) $809
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
ARNA(long) $29 CCJ(long) $54 ENG (long) $20 FCEL (long) $8 Total $2369 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 3/31
NONE
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
CLF (long) $40 Total $560 Status of trades for month of March per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Loss of $2380
Status of account/portfolio for 2018, as of 3/31Loss of $2028 using 100 shares traded per mention.
ARNA generated an uneventful inside week but a red close and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 38.61 will be seen this week. The news that has driven the stock for the last 2 weeks is now over and the traders are likely to start trading technically/chart-wise once again. Using the daily chart, intraweek support is very minor at 38.31, minor between 37.90 and 38.17 and decent at 36.80. Below that level, there is minor to perhaps decent support at 35.10 and then decent as well as pivotal at 33.00. Using the weekly chart though, there is no support until decent at 36.80 and then decent again at 33.00. To the upside, there is minor to perhaps decent at 41.92, minor at 42.74, minor to decent at 44.50 and decent as well as pivotal at 45.85. Having broken down to 30.00 recently and more importantly without a good reason for the drop, traders need to re-build dependable chart support to be able to launch a new rally up to the $50 and perhaps even $60 level. As such, a drop down to 36.80 seems like a high probability event. Further downside below that level is not likely to happen unless the previous unexplained weakness returns. Probabilities favor the bears this week for a drop down to 36.80. BHTG generated an uneventful week, having traded within a small 19 point trading range and closing 1 point below the previous week's close. Nonetheless, the stock got down to 3.90 once again (3rd time in the last 3 months) and that increases the chances that level of support will be broken. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 4.38 that if broken would suggest the worst is over. Probabilities are split for this week. CCJ generated an uneventful inside week but did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 9.26 will be seen this week. The stock has been range-bound for the past 2 months between 8.75 and 9.52 and it doesn't look like that will change this week. Nonetheless, the chart suggests that the traders will be exploring the upper side of that trading range this week. A break above or below the 2-month trading range would be indicative. CLF generated an uneventful inside week but given the weakness and close near the lows of the week seen the previous week, as well as the pivotal support level close by below at 6.30, the green weekly close and close near the highs of the week, does give the bulls some respite. Additionally, the previous week's close below the 200-week MA, currently at 6.76, was not confirmed, meaning that the bulls remain with a slight edge in the longer term picture. Pivotal intraweek resistance is found at 7.36 that if broken would not only give the bulls some new ammunition but would mean this last drop down to 6.40 would become the 4th successful retest of the 2-year uptrend line. Longer term pivotal resistance remains at 8.17. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. ENG continues to trade in the 4+ month trading range between .73 and .99, without giving a clue as to what the future is to bring. The stock did close in the red and on the lows of the week on Thursday and further downside below last week's low at .83 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock continues to build a solid bottom formation that suggests a higher probability of a breakout than of a breakdown. Intraweek support will be found this week at .81 and resistance at .91. Decent and pivotal resistance is found at .99 and the same can be said about support at .73 and .75. Probabilities favor another uneventful week. FCEL once again on Thursday visited the 200-day MA, currently at 1.70, and successfully tested the line given the green daily close on Friday. This is the 5th successful retest of the line in the past 4+ months and suggests that the stock is now ready to begin a more deliberate move to the upside. By the same token and on a possible negative note, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.70 will be seen this week and if that occurs, the MA line will be broken, at least on an intraweek basis. Pivotal intraweek support remains at 1.60 that if broken would be a decent negative. Intraweek resistance is found between 1.82 and 1.84 and pivotal at 1.88. Longer term chart favors the bulls but this week could be pivotal. FSLR bears continue to fail in making any kind of a bearish statement as the stock in spite of going below the previous week's low still generated a green weekly close on Thursday, though only by 33 points. Once again as it has done the previous 3 weeks, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 68.82 will be seen this week. The daily chart though, has now turned slightly bearish given that a sell signal was generated on Wednesday when the stock broke the previous 9-day daily closing low at 70.65. Traders seem to be waiting for the index market to decide direction before direction for the stock is chosen and that may not happen this week, or at least not until Friday. Nonetheless, a daily close at or above 74.02 would give the bulls a definite short-term edge, while a close below 67.52 would do the opposite for the bears. Probabilities favor more sideways trading action this week. IBM bulls were able to prevent a sell signal of consequence being given on the weekly chart, having generated a green weekly close on Thursday. In addition, the bears were not able to follow through to the downside off of the previous week's close on the lows of the week, suggesting some confusion is being seen among traders as to what will happen in the near future. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 154.87 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at last week's high at 154.87 and then nothing until minor at 157.20 and a bit stronger at 157.85. Nonetheless, the stock is showing a gap (possibly breakaway) between 155.25 and 155.92 that will also work as resistance. Chart suggests that if the gap is closed that the stock will rally up to 157.00, meaning that closure of the gap could be considered a reason to cover shorts and look to put them back on above 157.00. Support is found between 149.79 and 150.80. If broken, a drop down to the recent low at 148.54 is likely to occur. Probabilities favor the bulls this week, especially since the stock held above the 200-day MA, currently at 152.13, every day this week. Overall and on a midterm basis, probabilities favor the bears as long as the stock continues to close below the 200-week MA, currently at 157.35. A weekly close below 148.97 would generate a new sell signal of consequence. MNK had a very uneventful week but closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 14.61 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock remains in a bearish downtrend that will not change until a confirmed daily close above 15.62 occurs. The trading suggests that the bears are no longer pushing down as much as before but then again the stock has fallen 72% in value over the past 8 months and is now likely to be priced at the value it deserves. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only for a rally back above $15. Bears remain in midterm control. A drop below last week's low at 13.81 would keep the downtrend intact. PTC generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low as well as going above the previous week's high and closing in the green. Nonetheless, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 76.40 is more likely to be seen than a rally above last week's high at 81.32. The stock did generate a positive reversal on Thursday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside and above Thursday's high at 78.95 will be seen on Monday. On a negative note though, the stock has now given 2 sell signals on the daily chart and none have yet been negated, meaning that overall the bears seem to be in short-term control. Intraday chart suggests the stock will rally back up to 79.64 and then head back lower. Objective remains a drop down to 73.50. RENN made a new 7-month weekly closing low and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.22 will be seen this week. By the same token, the new multi-month weekly closing low was only by 5 points, meaning that if the bulls are able to generate a green weekly close next Friday, a double bottom might be built. On an intraweek basis, support is decent at the most recent low at 8.02. By the same token and going back 2 years, the area between 7.70 and 8.50 is considered decent weekly close support given that there are in excess of 8 weekly closes of importance in that area during that period of time. This suggests that the worst is likely about over. A week ago Friday, the stock broke the 200-day MA, currently at 8.90, and follow through has been seen. On Thursday, the stock saw some buying interest seen and it suggests that a rally back up to the line may occur this week or at the latest the following week. The 200-day MA on a daily closing basis is now an important pivot point. Probabilities favor some backing and filling this week and perhaps a new low below last week's low at 8.22 but by the end of the week, there should be a rally seen. TXN bears were unable to generate any follow through to the downside off of the previous week's close on the lows of the week and an inside week occurred with a green weekly close. Nonetheless, the green weekly close was not all that convincing given that the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 101.41 and above last week's high at 108.10. The chart continues to favor the bears overall but a rally this week back up to at least 105.33 is likely to be seen. Above that minor resistance, there is further resistance at 106.46 and the stronger and more indicative at the 200 60-minute MA, currently at 107.55. To the downside, minor support is found at 103.00 and at 101.70 and pivotal 101.34/101.41. A rally above last week's high at 108.10 will give the short-term edge back to the bulls. Probabilities favor a backing and filling week with no longer term decisions made.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .144 (new price 1.73). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .83. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 3.95 (new price (39.50). 4) CLF - Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.65. 5) RENN - Purchased at 11.08. No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 8.40. 6) CCJ - Averaged long at 9.585 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 9.09. 7) MNK - Averaged long at 25.18 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.48. 9) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 4.05. 10) TXN - Shorted at 107.48. Averaged short at 108.265 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 113.65. Stock closed on Friday at 103.89. 11) IBM - Shorted at 153.92 . Averaged short at 157.47 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 160.36. Stock closed on Friday at 153.43. 12) FSLR - Shorted at 72.09. Averaged short at 72.755 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 74.95. Stock closed on Friday at 70.98. 13) FCEL - Purchased at 1.60. Stop loss now at 1.40. Stock closed on Friday at 1.73. 14) IBM - Shorted at 151.69. Covered shorts at 152.68. Loss on the trade of $99 per 100 shares plus commissions. 15) PTC - Shorted at 80.19. Stop loss is at 81.82. Stock closed on Friday at 77.56. 16) TXN - Shorted at 104.32. Covered shorts at 105.21. Loss on the trade of $89 per 100 shares plus commissions.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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