Issue #551 ![]() November 12, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Mixed Signals Week. No Confimation of a Top Given!
DOW Friday closing price - 23358
The indexes generated mixed signals this past week with the NASDAQ making a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high and closing near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6805 will be seen this week and the DOW extending the correction that started 2 weeks ago with a new 4-week low and a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 23242 will be seen this week. The SPX did not clear up the mixed signals inasmuch as it sided with the DOW, having generated another red weekly close but also sided with the NAZ at it closed in the upper half of the week's trading range. The mixed signals given left the traders with more questions than answers for this week.
The reason for the rally was the passing of the Tax Reform bill in the House of Representatives, meaning that one of the Trump promises to generate a booming economy is now half-way there. Nonetheless, the rally may be premature given that passing of the Tax Reform bill in the Senate will be more difficult. As it is, 5% of the Republicans in the House voted against the bill. If that same percentage of Republicans in the Senate vote against the bill, it will not pass. Such an event would be a negative for the index market.
As stated the last 2 weeks, during the past 24 years, November has been generally a positive month for the index market. Using the DOW as the sample index, in that period of time there have only been 6 red close months and 4 of those came in periods when the indexes were in a downtrend. The other 2 instances of red monthly closes (which came during an uptrend as is being seen now) were insignificantly red, inasmuch as they were by 14 points and by 8 points, meaning that history suggests that the index market is more likely to go up than down. Nonetheless, with only 2 weeks left and the DOW presently trading below last month's close at 23377 and not showing much in the way of having any rally power, it is now possible that the index will mimic the previous 2 months where a red close by a few points occurred.
Based on the mixed signals given this past week and the lack of economic reports scheduled, the probabilities favor a lack of direction this coming week. As it is, the premium tech stocks in the NASDAQ are all at or near all-time highs and are likely to have difficulties going higher, especially since they have traded mostly sideways the past 3 weeks and the bulls have not been able to extend their rally.
To the upside, the NASDAQ has no resistance whatsoever. The DOW though has minor to decent resistance at 23492 and decent to perhaps strong at the all-time high at 23602. The SPX has minor to decent resistance at 2590 and decent to perhaps strong at the all-time high at 2597.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW has minor support at 23310 and pivotal at 23242. Below that level, there is minor support at 23052 and then nothing until 22219. The SPX has minor support at 2566, minor to perhaps decent at 2557 and then minor to decent as well as pivotal at 2544. Below that level, there is no support until 2488. The NASDAQ has minor support at 6687and then minor to decent as well as short-term pivotal at 6667. Below that level, there is no support built until minor at 6558 and decent at 6517.
There are no economic reports of consequence this coming week and it is a short holiday week due to Thanksgiving on Thursday, suggesting there will be low participation, especially because of the lack of consensus among the traders as to clear direction of the indexes.
The key index to watch this week is the DOW with resistance at 23492 and support at 23242. That 250 point trading range is likely where the index will trade the entire week. Nonetheless, a break above resistance or below support should generate some new trading interest and a move of consequence in whichever direction is broken.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Once again the bulls were able to negate the recent weakness, meaning that no confirmation that a top to the rally had been found. By the same token, the rally was not unaminous as mixed signals were given in the index market also meaning that the traders are unsure of direction for this coming week. In addition, this is a holiday shortened week (Thanksgiving) and unlikely to generate any certainty as far as direction for December is concerned.
As such, once more no new mentions will be given this week.
By the same token, there is one presently held stock that is leaning to the downside and offers a good risk/reward ratio though the probabiity number on a short trade is low. As such, this is the one trade that I will give where adding shorts makes sense.
CAT Friday Closing Price - 136.13
See held stock update below for details as to the trade.
Sales of CAT between Friday's closing price at 136.13 and up to 138.10 and using a stop loss at 139.00 and having a downside objective of $112 (to be reached over the next 12 weeks) offers at least an 8-1 risk/reward ratio.
My probability rating is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AMZN extended its rally this past week, having gone above the previous week's high and closing in the green. Nonetheless, the index made the new all-time high at 1139.90 on Monday and then proceeded to trade sideways the rest of the week, having traded between a low of 1121.63 and 1138.80, meaning that the new high did not stimulate any new buying interest. The stock generated a negative reversal day on Friday, having gone above Thursday's high and then closing below Thursday's low, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside. In addition, the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that last week's low at 1121.63 will be broken this week. Below 1121.63 there is minor support at 1115.77 and then nothing until the 2-week low at 1086.87 is reached. Since the earnings report came out 5 weeks ago, each week has shown a smaller trading range than the week before and this is the first week where the bulls failed to close the stock in the upper half of the week's trading range, strongly suggesting that this will be a red week with some form of correction and/or retest of the breakout level at 1052.80 to be seen over the next couple of weeks. Probabilities favor the bears this week. ARNA generated a second red close week but on an intraweek basis there was no follow through to the downside below the previous week's low and though the stock closed in the red it closed only 20 points below the previous week's close and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 26.85 will be seen this week. It is likely that the traders will be testing the recent 23-month high at 28.97 this week in an attempt to see if the less than expected earnings report was a game changer or simply a small bump in the road (probabilities favor the latter). Resistance is found between 27.86 and 28.28 and the probabilities favor that area being reached this week. What the stock does in that area and how it closes next Friday will likely determine what the traders will do the following week after Thanksgiving. Support is found between 24.33 and 24.87 that if broken would be a negative sign. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. BHTG generated a new 15-week low weekly close and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.00 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bears are having a tough time pushing the stock lower, given that 5.25 was reached 8 trading days ago and the bears have only been able to engender a 25 point drop since then and have not been able to break the spike low at 5.01 that was made 6 weeks ago. The stock has generated 11 red weekly closes in the past 15 weeks and yet the bears have been unable to make a negative statement as the stock has not broken any support of consequence and is still trading above the breakout level at 4.75 that go broken to the upside the last week of July. To the upside and on a daily closing basis, resistance is found at 5.39 and pivotal at 5.80. To the downside and on a daily closing basis, very minor support is found at 5.08 and strong as well as pivotal at 4.78. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but the action suggests the stock is likely to turn around soon. CAT generated the 3rd red weekly close in a row but the bears have only been able to gain a $.50 cent profit (.004%) over that period of time, suggesting the buying interest remains decent. Nonetheless, the lower low and lower high seen last week makes the previous week's high at 138.90 into a successful retest of the all-time high at 140.43, meaning that the chart is now fulfilled as far as being open for a correction of consequence. The stock closed "slightly" in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 138.12 than below last week's low at 133.81. Nonetheless, this is a DOW stock and will likely move in the direction of the index, which is supposed to move lower this week. Intraweek support is found at last week's low at 133.81 and then nothing until minor support is found at 129.40. A break below 133.81 would likely close the runaway gap at 132.35 which in turn would target the breakaway gap between 121.57 and 132.85. It is important to note though, that since April the stock has generated 3 breakaway/runaway gap formations and none have been closed, meaning the stock is strong and only if a correction of consequence is to be seen in the index market will the bears have any success pushing down. By the same token, the stock now shows 3 successful retests of the all-time high and none of that happened previously when the previous breakaway/runaway gap formations occurred, suggesting a correction is most likely. Likely pivotal resistance is found at 137.41 that if broken would suggest a new attempt at the all-time highs is to be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bears. As such, adding of short positions this week should be considered. CLF generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 12-month low and then closing in the green and on the highs of the day, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.30 will be seen this week. More importantly, the green weekly close makes last week's close at 6.00 into a successful retest of a previous 2-point uptrend line (now 3 points) that started in October, suggesting that no further downside is likely to be seen. Minor to perhaps decent but certainly short-term pivotal resistance is found at 6.41 that if broken would open the door for a rally up to at least 6.95 where minor resistance in once again found. Nonetheless, a break above 6.41 would suggest a rally up to the 200-day MA, currently at 7.50, would likely occur. Pivotal support is now found at last week's low at 5.60 that if broken would likely push the stock down to 5.00 and damage the longer term chart. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG made a new 22-month intraweek low for the second week in a row and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at .77 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the upside, given that the stock closed near the highs of the day on Friday and a rally above Friday's high at .82 is likely to be seen on Monday. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at .88 that if broken would likely cause the previous low daily close at 1.08 to be targeted. The bears have had a tough time generating further downside as they have only accomplished a $.03 cent move (3.5%) below the low at $.80 seen after the earnings report came out. The stock is trading at a pivotal weekly close support level between .77 and .81 that requires a green weekly close next Friday. It also needs to be mentioned that this stock should move in conjunction to oil prices and with that market heading higher, it does give some ammunition to the bulls to turn this downtrend around. FCEL generated a strong round of selling and/or profit-taking this past week after the stock closed the breakaway gap at 1.89 and broke convincingly below the pivotal 2.00 level. The stock lost 25% in value having dropped from the previous week's close at 2.08 to close on Friday at 1.58. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.50 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the drop was mostly technical in nature given that there wasn't any negative news this week and only when the gap was closed and the 2.00 level broken was the selling interest seen. Technically, the downside objective of the break had to be the important 200-day MA line, currently at 1.50, that was broken convincingly to the upside in September and that was a line that had not been broken for 3 years, likely meaning that the once the break of support occurred that was the target. Evidently if the MA line holds up, the buying interest will once again pick up, especially since there were no downgrades given this past week and most of those rating companies still have a $4-$5 objective, suggesting that the drop was a combination of stop loss selling, profit taking, and reaching technical chart objectives. By the same token, this coming week the bulls must negate some of the sell and failure signals given (such as the break of the previous breakout level at 1.75) and rally to close next Friday above at least 1.75. If that occurs, buying interest will likely come back. Probabilities favor the bulls. GS made a new 8-week low but bounced up when the stock got down near to the breakaway gap between 231.44 and 232.91 with a low at 233.55 to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 240.90 than below last week's low at 233.55. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at 240.90. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 243.32 and then nothing until the 244.98 level. Decent resistance is found at 246.50. To the downside, there is minor to perhaps decent support at 235.19 and then at last week's low at 233.55. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week but the 8-week low made last week does suggest that the bulls are beginning to lose their edge. MNK did not follow through to the downside this past week after the big drop due seen the previous week due to the worse than expected earnings report, having generated an inside week and a green weekly close and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 22.58 will be seen this week. The bears have been powerless to push the stock lower, below the psychological support at $20, having traded above that level for the past 8 days. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at 22.79 and then nothing until the gap at 26.91 is reached. Minor but likely short-term pivotal support is found at 20.81. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week. SLCA failed to follow through to the upside this past week after the previous week's close near the highs of the week. The stock corrected 11% during the week from the previous week's close but bounced at the end of the week to close in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting a 50-50 chance of going above last week's high at 36.45 than below last week's low at 32.42. Nonetheless, the probabilities favor the bulls since both the stock and oil are in an uptrend. The 200-week MA, currently at 35.90, remains a large stumbling block on a weekly closing basis and that was proven with the successful retest of that line 2 weeks ago with the close at 35.52 and the red close this past week. Nonetheless, oil is expected to continue higher, likely giving the bulls the edge to break the line this week, at least on an intraweek basis. The bears tried to close the breakaway gap at 31.86 with the drop down to 32.42 this past week but failed. As such, 32.42 is now considered short-term pivotal support. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .131 (new price 1.58). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .81. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 26.53. 4) CLF - Purchased at 5.96. Averaged long at 7.786 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.13. 5) GS - Averaged short at 242.52 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 247.87. Stock closed on Friday at 238.02. 6) SLCA - Averaged long at 27.03 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 34.38. 7) CAT - Shorted at 130.83. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 136.13. 8) AMZN - Shorted at 1134.41. Covered shorts at 1135.28 Loss on the trade of $43.50 per 50 shares plus commissions. 9) MNK - Averaged long at 35.754 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.38. 10) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. Stop loss at 4.65. Stock closed on Friday at 5.14. 11) ARNA - Purchased at 20.16. Stop loss now at 24.23. Stock closed on Friday at 26.53. 12) AMZN - Shorted at 1137.74. Averaged short at 1062.845 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1129.88. 13) AMZN - Shorted at 1136.54. Covered shorts at 1137.28. Loss on the trade of $37 per 50 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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