Issue #550
November 12, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


9-week Rally Comes to a Stop. Top to Rally Found?

DOW Friday closing price - 23422
SPX Friday closing price - 2582
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 6750

The indexes generated the first red weekly close in the last 9 weeks, suggesting that at least a pause in the runaway freight train scenario is occurring. Nonetheless, the bears were unable to make the kind of a statement they needed to make a case for a top being found given that the weekly closes on Friday do not clearly suggest that further downside will be seen this week. The indexes all closed "around" the midpoint of the week's trading ranges (DOW slightly below the midpoint, SPX at the midpoint, and NAZ slightly above the midpoint). As such, traders will come in on Monday with no set game plan and wait for news before making a decision for direction for the week.

During the past 24 years, November has been generally a positive month for the index market. Using the DOW as the sample index, in that period of time there have only been 6 red close months and 4 of those came in periods when the indexes were in a downtrend. The other 2 instances of red monthly closes (which came during an uptrend as is being seen now) were insignificantly red, inasmuch as they were by 14 points and by 8 points, meaning that history suggests that the index market will likely continue the uptrend in November and close higher than last month's closes (DOW at 22377, SPX at 2575, and NAZ at 6727).

Nonetheless, this coming week will have some importance since all indexes generated a negative reversal week (new all-time highs and a red weekly close) and that means that the bulls will need some small catalyst to resume the uptrend. There are a fair number of economic reports this week that could generate a "small" catalytical event given that PPI and CPI, Retail Sales, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production numbers are due to come out. As such, one of those reports could give the traders a "nudge" in one direction or the other.

To the upside, last week's highs (DOW at 23602, SPX at 2597 and NAZ at 6795) will be considered resistance levels this week. By the same token, the traders may be using the 200 10-minute MA's for some intraday decisions since that line was broken convincingly on Thursday and not negated on Friday, meaning the traders will follow that line to "lean" either to the sell or buy side for the week. The 200 10-minute MA is currently at 23500 in the DOW, at 2586 in the SPX and at 6760 in the NASDAQ.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, last week's lows are likely pivotal support (DOW at 23310, SPX at 2566 and NASDAQ at 6687) though there are some further support levels below that could stop the selling such at 23251 in the DOW, 2544 in the SPX and 6677 in the NAZ. If both of the support levels are broken, then further downside of some consequence would likely be seen.

The Tax Reform bill and the obstacles to it passing will also be closely watched this week as that has been the main fundamental support to the rally in the market and any failures to move it forward will likely cause the indexes to fall back. The first course of action for the week is likely to be to the upside, given that the indexes closed in the upper half of Friday's trading range and there are no economic reports scheduled until Wednesday. In addition, a rally above Friday's highs would generate what could end up being a successful retest of all-time highs on the daily chart, something that has a high probability of occurring.

At this time and based on the action seen this past week, the probabilities still slightly favor the bulls but it is likely that the end result for the week will be dependent on whether the economic reports favor the bulls or the bears.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Once again there are no mentions this week. Nonetheless, signs of a top to the rally occurred and if confirmed, mentions will be given on the message board. So far, traders have bought all dips but at these lofty levels it is increasingly difficult for the bulls to generate additional buying interest. Nonetheless, confirmation of a top needs to be given so that short trades can be made.

More importantly, presently held stocks are all at pivotal levels and as such, more attention should be given to increase/add to present trades as they all offer excellent risk/reward ratios than to new stocks/trades. See below for individual stock details.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AMZN extended its rally this past week, having gone above the previous week's high and closing in the green. Nonetheless, like the previous week, there was some volatility and movement as the stock fell $20 from its high between Wednesday and Thursday, meaning that the traders are ready to take profits if any negative news comes out. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 1135.54 is expected to be seen this week. The stock has not yet seen a retest of the gap 1050.55 or the previous all-time daily closing high at 1052.80 and that is highly likely to occur before much higher prices can be seen. The stock now shows a minor but short-term pivotal support at 1086.87. The stock did go above Thursday's high on Friday but then closed on the lows of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside below Friday's low at 1124.08. If that is seen, a successful retest of the all-time high will have occurred on the daily chart and if 1115.77 gets broken a drop down to test last week's low at 1108.77 will be seen and if that level gets broken, it will be a sign that at least a temporary top to this rally has been found. Probabilities still favor the bulls for a bit more upside before a correction starts.

ARNA generated a negative reversal week, having made another new 25-month intraweek high but then going below last week's low and closing below the previous week's low. The reason for the reversal was a worse than expected earnings report. Nonetheless, the negativity of the reversal did not get confirmed on the daily closing chart given that the previous 25-month daily closing high at 26.01 did not get broken (closed at 25.97) and then was followed by 2 green closes on Thursday and Friday. In addition, the stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 28.97 than below last week's low at 24.33. The stock had not seen any type of correction for the past 12 weeks and was overdue for one. As such, last week's spike low at 24.33, is now likely to be the new support level for the next push upward. The upside objective remains the 200-week MA, currently 31.20. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

BHTG generated a new 15-week low weekly close and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5.20 will be seen this week. There is presently a 2-point trend line using the 2 spike lows at 4.75 and at 5.01 seen over the past 3 months that connects at 5.20, meaning that if the line is broken (especially if the most recent low at 5.01 is broken as well) that a drop back down to at least 4.70/4.75 would occur. Such a drop would suggest that the stock is in a sideways mode between $5 and $10 for the foreseeable future and that resumption of the uptrend would require new positive fundamental news. In addition, such a drop would also open the door for negation of the breakout. Pivotal resistance remains at 6.30. Chart suggests this coming week is short-term pivotal.

CAT generated a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's high and below last week's low and closing in the red and slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 134.65 than above last week's high at 138.90. In addition, if the stock does go below last week's low next week, last week's high will become the needed/required retest of the all-time high at 140.44, which in turn would suggest that a temporary top has been found and that a correction has started. The stock is showing a 15 week rally with higher lows than the previous week, meaning a high probability that a correction has started and if so that there is no support nearby of consequence. The previous all-time high weekly close is at 110.17 and that would become the likely target of such a correction. Now likely pivotal resistance is found at last week's high at 138.90, meaning that a stop loss at 139.35 can now be used. Probabilities favor the bears.

CLF has now spent 11 days trading in a 30 point trading range between 5.96 and 6.29 (based on daily closes), suggesting that the bears have run out of ammunition to push the stock lower. The 6.00 level has been decent daily close support since May, also suggesting that the bears will need negative fundamental news to generate further sell interest. In addition, the stock remains in a midterm uptrend that started 22 months ago when the stock made an all-time weekly closing low at 1.40, given that each important weekly closing low has been higher than the previous one (1.82, 2.91, 5.34 and 5.69). Friday's close at 6.01 was the lowest weekly close in the last 5 months but still above the previous low weekly close of importance at 5.69. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 5.97 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, 3 weeks ago the stock made an intraweek low at 5.69 and if that level is not broken this week and a green close occurs next Friday, it would strongly suggest that the worst of this recent 10-week downtrend is over. Short-term intraweek pivotal resistance is found at 6.41. Support is at 5.69. A break of either of those levels would be indicative. Probabilities favor the bulls this week though it is likely the stock will start under some sell pressure at the beginning of the week. It does seem like this week is pivotal.

ENG generated minor follow through to the downside this past week, having made a new 22-month intraweek low by .004 cents (.80 vs previous week at .804) and a new 22-month weekly closing low at .835. There was very little movement in the stock as it traded in a $.11 cent trading range versus the previous week's $.48 cent trading range. Nonetheless, the volume matched the previous week's volume (269k vs the previous week's 295k) which when compared to the volume seen the previous 15 weeks was double, likely meaning the buying interest matched the selling interest this past week. The previous low weekly close of importance was seen in January 2016 at $.77 cents, followed 6 weeks later with a close at $.81 cents, meaning that the stock is now likely at a "major" long term pivot point given that an uptrend (though minor) has been in place since 2013 that would be broken if the stock generates a weekly close below $.77 cents or even below $.81. Simply stated, the bulls need to generate a green weekly close next Friday or face a breakdown of consequence. Last week's high at $.91 is now short-term pivotal resistance. Above that level there is no resistance until 1.08 (minor) is reached. Intraweek support is found at $.79 and pivotal at $.68. Probabilities favor the bulls this week as it is unlikely the stock price is heading further south.

FCEL made a new 6-week weekly closing low breaking the 5-week weekly close pattern of closes between 2.15 and 2.21. Nonetheless, the lower weekly close is not seen as a big negative since the stock also made a new 29-day intraweek low at 1.92 on Friday and then rallied to close in the green and on the highs of the day, suggesting that on Monday the stock will go above Friday's high at 2.09, meaning that Friday's 29-day breakdown will be negated. The breakaway gap at 1.89 remains unclosed and given the action on Friday, a runaway gap now has a high probability of being seen, perhaps as early as Monday. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 2.25 than below last week's low at 1.92, given that the stock is presently in a midterm uptrend. Probabilities favor the bulls.

GS generated a red weekly close as well as a mini sell signal, having closed below the most recent low weekly close at 241.71. It was not a strong sell signal as the close at 241.71 was a minor low weekly close. For example, a weekly close below 238.53 would have been a true sell signal. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 237.55 will be seen this week. The stock has been trading for the past 29 trading days between 235.19 and 247.74 (236.09 and 246.88 on a daily closing basis) and based on the negative reversal day seen on Friday, the probabilities now favor the bears for a breakdown rather than a breakout. Short-term intraweek pivotal support is found at 237.55 and midterm pivotal support is found at 235.19. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 244.98 and midterm pivotal resistance is found at 247.74. Chart suggests that the bears now have the edge and that a drop down to $227-$230 is likely to be seen over the next couple of weeks.

MNK reported earnings this week and they disappointed causing the stock to make a new all-time low for the 8th time out of the last 14 weeks. In addition, several rating companies lowered their buy recommendation to hold (GS, MS for example), causing even more selling to occur. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 19.00 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock has now reached what should be considered a strong "psychological" support at $20 and with most rating companies still having upside objectives of as little as $24 to as much as $50, it is difficult to visualize the company heading much lower. The stock did bounce up $3.79 from the lows, suggesting that the selling interest below $20 waned. If the bears fail to follow through to the downside this week (below 19.00) it will be a sign that no further downside below the $20 level is to occur. The stock generated a negative reversal day on Friday and further downside below Friday's low at 21.12 is likely to be the first course of action for the week. If that occurs but the bears fail to take the stock below 19.00, a turnaround is likely to be seen the rest of the week. Minor resistance is likely to be found at Friday's high at 22.70 and then nothing until the gap area at 26.91. The chart suggests the probabilities favor the bears this week but the super low price suggests otherwise.

SLCA generated a new 18-week high and a close near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 36.55 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the upside objective of reaching the 200-week MA, currently at 35.90 has now been reached, suggesting that further upside will be toiled and on a weekly closing basis limited. On an intraweek basis, minor to decent resistance is found between 37.14 and 37.48 and then decent and unlikely to be broken at this time at the $40 demilitarized zone. On an intraweek basis, support is now found at the gap area at 32.89 and on a daily closing basis at the previous high daily close at 33.20. The stock generated a negative reversal day on Friday as well as a close in the lower half of the day's trading range, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside below Friday's low at 35.08. A drop down to 34.39 is likely to be seen at the beginning of the week and then a rally above last week's high. Consideration should be given to taking profits above 37.00 and certainly if the stock gets up near the $40 level. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .173 (new price 2.08).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .835.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 26.75.

4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.01.

5) GS - Shorted at 242.09. Averaged short at 242.52 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 247.87. Stock closed on Friday at 240.15.

6) SLCA - Averaged long at 25.375 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 35.52.

7) CAT - Shorted at 130.83. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 136.48.

8) MNK - Purchased at 19.88. Liquidated at 19.62. Loss of $26 per 100 shares plus commissions.

9) MNK - Purchased at 20.11. Averaged long at 35.754 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.76.

10) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. Stop loss at 4.65. Stock closed on Friday at 5.25.

11) ARNA - Purchased at 20.16. Stop loss now at 24.23. Stock closed on Friday at 26.75.

12) AMZN _ Shorted at 1125.41. Covered shorts at 1122.05. Profit of $168 per 50 shares minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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