Issue #542
September 3, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Market Turns Around, Correction Over?

DOW Friday closing price - 21987
SPX Friday closing price - 2476
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 6435

The bulls had a good week as the 3-week mini correction in the indexes (DOW 2.7%, SPX 3% and NAZ 4.4%) seems to have come to an end after a positive reversal was seen the previous week and on Wednesday the short-term downtrend lines were broken to the upside.

The NASDAQ made a new all-time weekly closing high (above the previous one at 6387), the SPX closed at the previous all-time high at 2476, and the DOW closed only 105 points from its all-time high at 22092. The bullish pattern seen often during the last 8 years of Tech stocks leading the parade returned with the NAZ rallying 2.7% above last week's close, the SPX rallying 1.3% and the DOW bringing up the rear with a rally of only .8%. All indexes closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's highs is expected to be seen this week.

AAPL was credited with being the main catalyst for the rally as the company announced plans this past week to unveil the new IPhone next week and the traders decided to jump aboard the "Tech train" as sales have always spiked up when that has occurred in the past. In addition, the 2nd estimate of GDP and the ISM Index reports were better than expected, and it was announced by Steven Mnuchin (U.S. Secretary of State) that the Trump administration had presented a detailed tax plan to Congress that they expect to sign into law by the end of the year, all of which gave the bulls the ammunition they needed to break out of the recent correction/downtrend and generate the rally.

On a possible negative note though, the previous intraweek all-time highs were not broken last week and that does suggest that the bulls need something additional this week to "get them over the hump". On Friday, the NASDAQ opened at 6449 (just 11 points below the all-time intraweek high) and the bulls were unable to generate any additional buying interest the rest of the day, suggesting that in spite of the positive news last week that resuming the uptrend is not yet a "done deal". With no economic reports of consequence scheduled this coming week and all the "good news" likely factored in already, the bulls may have some problems getting above the remaining resistance levels above in spite of the new all-time high weekly close in the NAZ.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 22085 and decent at the all-time high at 22179. The SPX has minor to perhaps decent resistance 2480 and decent at the all-time high at 2490 and the NASDAQ has decent resistance at 6460 as well as psychological resistance at the 6500 demilitarized zone (6470-6530).

The bulls do have a chart problem though, inasmuch as 2 of the indexes (SPX and NAZ) are showing gaps below that were created this past week and that are likely to be magnets this week if no new highs are made. In the SPX the gap is between 2460 and 2462 and in the NASDAQ it is between 6374 and 6383. The biggest problem is that the positive news that created the rally is not yet "tangible" (mostly speculative) and as such and given that momentum was the main driver for the rally, any pause in the rally this coming week could be strongly negative, especially in the SPX where a red weekly close next Friday would create a double top on the weekly closing chart at 2476. In addition, in the NASDAQ a failure signal would be given and in the DOW, a successful retest of the all-time high at 22179 would occur. As such, this coming week is looking to be pivotal from a chart perspective.

The one big negative that the bulls are now facing is that every week more and more fundamental analysts are starting to call for a correction of consequence (this past one was a minor one) and some are even calling for a major top to be made given that Trump is not likely to get much (if any) of his agenda passed (and that is what has driven the market to this point). The failure to make a new intraweek high on Friday in the NASDAQ after all the good news and momentum was on the side of the bulls is perhaps a clue that they will not be able to generate any further upside and that the indexes will fall back this week. If that does occur, it could be like a "bucket of cold water on a hot stove", causing all the gains to be given back in the blink of an eye.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Though the market rallied this past week and is on the verge of resuming the uptrend, the fundamental picture does not yet support much higher prices, suggesting that short positions still have better risk/reward ratios and higher probability ratings than long positions. Nonetheless, with this week likely being a pivotal week in which either side could end up claiming victory at the end of the week, there is only one mention and it is the same one that has been given the past few weeks but has not yet gotten to the desired entry point. An updated mention is available this week.

SALES

ZBRA Friday Closing Price 104.18

ZBRA made an all-time high at 119.47 in June 2015 and then proceeded to fall precipitously over the following 11 months to 46.13 (a 61.4% drop). The stock then began a recovery phase that started in July 2016 and that lasted 11 months until June 2017 and that took the stock back up to 109.30 where selling interest was again found, causing the stock to drop back down to 94.78 over a period of 9 weeks. Once again, buying interest was found at that price and the stock over the next 2 weeks rallied back up to 108.99 where a negative reversal occurred, having made a new 11-week high but then closing in the red.

For the past 2 weeks, ZBRA has been idling without direction but last week the stock generated a positive reversal (in conjunction with the rally in the indexes) and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 104.54 will be seen this week.

What the action seen the past 2 years suggests is that 1) the stock is very volatile, 2) there is strong selling interest on rallies above $100, 3) the all-time high now has at least 2 successful retests and possibly 3 (if the stock fails to get above the most recent high at 108.99 and goes below last week's low this week or below this week's low the following week, and 4) downside objective could be just about anything.

In looking at the chart of ZBRA for the past 2 years, one thing jumps out immediately and that is that between $85 and $110 movement has been swift and without many obstacles or delays, both when rallying and when falling, meaning that if the bears have now gotten their edge back and the indexes are to fall, that a drop down to that support area could occur in a matter of a couple of weeks.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, ZBRA shows minor support at 97.82 and decent at the reversal week spike low at 94.78. Below that level, there is no support until 84.32.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, ZBRA there is minor to perhaps decent resistance at 106.54. Above that level, there is decent resistance at 107.35 and then decent to perhaps even strong at the double high at 109.30/108.99.

The 2-week high that was seen on Friday and the close near the highs of the week, in additional to the likely follow through rally to be seen in the indexes, suggests the stock will get up this week to somewhere between 106.50 and 107.35. By the same token, there has not yet been enough done to the downside off of the double high presently in place as the 200-day MA, currently at 93.05, has not yet had a successful retest of it and a failure here would strongly suggest a drop down to that level would become the objective of the bears.

ZBRA does show resistance starting at 105.00 (from 3 previous intraday highs and up to 107.35. A failure to get above 105.00 would be a strongly bearish sign. By the same token, if the 105.00 level is broken, then a rally up to at least 106.50 would be seen with a slight chance of the stock going above 107.00.

Sales of ZBRA between 105.00 and 107.30 and using a stop loss at 109.35 and having at least a 93.00 objective would offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, based on previous history and of strong moves below $100, a drop down to $80-$85 could be seen, which would make the risk/reward ratio 4to5-1.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Loss of $2360 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for August per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

GS (long) $14
GS (short) $2628

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

GS (short) $104

Total Profit for July, per 100 shares and after commissions $2746

Closed out losing trades for August per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

ADSK (short) $34
ADSK (short) $293
CLB (long) $55
AKAM (short) $67

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

AXP (short) $116
DFS (long) $31

Total Loss for March, per 100 shares, including commissions $596

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 8/31

AMTD (short) $279
NFX (long) $24
ARNA (long) $302
SLCA (long) $267
CLB (long) $77

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

CLF (long) $192
ENG(long) $12

Total $1153

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 8/31

NONE

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

MNK (long) $1416
CLB (long) $2470
ARNA(long) $17
FCEL (long) $0
RIG (long) $147

Total $4050

Status of trades for month of August per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.

Loss of $747

Status of account/portfolio for 2017, as of 8/31

Loss of $3107 using 100 shares traded per mention.



Updates on Held Stocks

AMTD generated another green weekly close but it was not all that indicative as it was only by 27 points above the previous week's close and on an intraweek basis the stock only went 8 points above the previous week's high. In addition, the stock seems to be mimicking the action seen in February when the stock rallied from 40.93 to 43.84 and closed at 43.41 before a negative reversal occurred followed by 5 weeks of selling and a drop down to 36.36. With the stock closing on Friday at 43.42 and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 43.68, the possibilities of the stock doing the same this time around are high. Evidently the high seen in February at 43.84 is resistance. Intraweek support is found at 42.14 and at 41.88, which is also where the 200-day MA is presently located. As such, a break below 41.88 would be a strong sign that further downside is to be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

ARNA continued the recovery from the retest of the $20 level with another green weekly close. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 23.49 is expected to be seen. To the upside and on an intraweek basis, minor to perhaps decent resistance is found between 24.55 and 24.70 and decent at the recent high at 27.86. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek support is found between 22.15 and 22.23. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls.

CLB generated a new 6-year intraweek low but the bears were unable to make a statement as the stock closed only 2 points below the previous week's close at 89.61 and 4 points above the low weekly close for that same period of time, seen 3 weeks ago at 89.55. The traders seem to be waiting to see what oil is going to do before deciding whether further downside is to be seen or a rally is to occur. Oil continued its recent short-term downtrend but did reach the downside objective area between 43.76 and 45.80 with a drop down to 45.55. Oil closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 48.20 will be seen this week and if that occurs and a green weekly close above last week's close at 47.29 occurs, it would suggest that both oil and the stock would move up. To the upside and on an intraweek basis, CLB has pivotal resistance at 91.90 and then nothing until the $99-$100 area is reached. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, there is minor to perhaps decent support at 87.83 and then decent as well as pivotal at last week's low at 86.55. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

CLF generated a new 22-week intraweek and weekly closing high on Friday and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.62 will be seen this week. The stock generated a confirmed break of the 200-day MA, currently at 8.10, having broken the line on Wednesday and generating 2 additional closed above the line on Thursday and Friday. The 200-week MA, currently at 8.88, now beckons strongly and likely will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis though, there is no resistance until minor resistance is found at 9.06. Above that level, there is no resistance found until the $10 demilitarized zone is reached. Minor but short-term indicative support is found at 8.28 and then nothing until decent at 7.70. Probabilities favor the bulls but this is the second time the 200-week MA will be seen and it usually takes 3 tries before a reliable break occurs.

ENG bears were unable to generate any follow through to the downside to last week's close on the lows of the week and break of the weekly close support at 1.15 and saw the bulls generate a spike up rally to the pivotal weekly close resistance at 1.29/1.31. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1.32 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls need to do more this week before the traders turn around and become longer term buyers. Intraweek resistance is found at 1.40 and at 1.46 and weekly close resistance is found at 1.29/1.31. A break of both of those would be a bullish sign. Intra-week support is now decent between 1.07 and 1.10. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

FCEL continues to generate green weekly closes, having closed again in the green for the 4th week in a row and 14 out of the last 15 weeks. Nonetheless and in spite of the "sea of green", the bulls have not yet been able to generate a buy signal of consequence on the weekly chart, leaving questions still unanswered. On a strong positive note though, the stock closed above the 200-day MA, currently at 1.54 for the first time in 15 months and the second time in the last 35 months, suggesting that the bulls may be starting to make a statement. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1.63. Minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 1.64 and then stronger and more long-term pivotal at 1.79. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 1.85 and then decent at the $2 demilitarized zone. Minor but likely short-term pivotal support is found at 1.46 and then longer term pivotal at 1.33. It is evident by the sea of green being seen that the bears have lost control and that the stock is on the verge of a breakout that would likely bring about a strong short-covering rally, especially considering that the stock was trading at $12 just 2 years ago and at $57 just 3 years ago. Probabilities favor the bulls.

GS generated another positive reversal week, having negated the previous one seen the week before by going unexpectedly below the previous week's low and then closing above last week's high. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 227.56 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock seems to be stuck in a sideways trading range between $213 and $230 (based on weekly closes), which is an area that the stock has now been trading in for the past 6 months. The overall chart is leaning toward the bear side as a big inverted flag formation is in place that offers a $190 objective if the bottom of the flag at 213.31 is broken. On a daily closing basis, there is a lot of decent resistance between 226.87 and 227.36 that the bulls were unable to break last week, given that the stock traded as high as 227.56 on Friday but closed $1.50 lower. As such, even if the stock goes above last week's high this week, it is unlikely that the bulls will be able to break the daily close resistance in that area. Intraweek support is now found at 222.65 and then nothing until the $220 demilitarized zone. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week but overall for the longer term, the bears have the edge.

MNK generated a failure signal against the bears on both the daily and weekly closing basis, having closed on Thursday and Friday above the previous all-time low daily close at 39.63 and on Friday above the previous all-time low weekly close at 40.29. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 41.70 is expected to be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, there is no resistance above until very minor resistance is found at 42.45 and minor at 44.45. Above that level, there is minor to decent resistance between $47 and $48. To the downside, the previous double intra-week low at 38.81/38.80 is now considered minor to perhaps decent but likely short-term pivotal support. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

NFX went above the previous week's high, opening the door to the possibility that the previous week's low at 24.41 may be the low of the recent downtrend. Going back 5 years, the stock does show multiple times (9) where downtrends stopped somewhere between a low of 22.30 and 25.41 and the 24.41 low fits in well with that area of support. With only 2 exceptions, every single time on those 9 occasions that the stock made a spike low and the following week it went above the previous week's low, it ended up with a rally of consequence. As such, consideration should be given to taking profits on the short positions. The stock did generated a negative reversal day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will likely be to the downside with 25.46/25.50 as the likely objective. If that level is seen but not broken, short-covering should be considered. The next support below 25.46 is 25.00 but if the stock gets that low it could go lower so waiting would be the thing to do. To the upside, there is no resistance until the 27.10-27.45 level is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

RIG continued its recovery from making a new all-time low at 7.20 2 weeks ago, having generated 8 green daily closes over the past 9 days and getting above the first intraweek resistance (though minor) at 8.55 on Friday (got up to 8.57). In addition, The 2 previous all-time low weekly closes at 8.33 and the most recent at 7.88 were both negated with the 8.55 close on Friday. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high is expected to be seen this week. To the upside and on an intra-week basis, minor to decent resistance is found between 8.83 and 9.01 and the nothing until 9.60. On a weekly closing basis, a close above 9.07 would generate a buy signal on the weekly closing chart and suggest that a bottom has been found. Minor support is now found at 8.11 and decent at 7.66/7.67. This is another stock that also depends on what oil does, meaning that a rally above 48.20 would give the bulls new ammunition. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

SLCA bulls enjoyed a double positive this past week with the stock having generated a positive reversal week (lower lows and high higher than the previous week and a close above last week's high) and closing near the highs of the week, suggesting that if the stock goes above last week's high at 27.95 (likely since it closed near the highs of the week) that a successful retest of the 24.26 multi-year low will have occurred. To the upside and on an intraweek basis, minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 28.52 that if broken would open the door for going up to the next intraweek resistance on the weekly chart at 34.20 and perhaps even up to the 200-week MA, currently at 36.00. On the daily chart though, above 28.52 there is resistance at 29.70 but above that level it is open air until 35.37. Intraweek support should now be found at 26.35. Probabilities favor the bulls for a rally up to 28.52 but thereafter it may depend on oil and what happens at the 48.20 level.

TOL went above the previous week's high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 39.31 will be seen this week. The rally makes the previous weeks low at 36.55 into a possible spike low that may cause the previous uptrend to resume. Intraweek resistance is found at 39.37 and then stronger between 40.14 and 40.33. A break of that resistance would suggest the recent high at 41.07 would be tested and likely broken. Nonetheless, the daily chart remains short-term bearish, requiring the most recent intraweek high at 39.70 to be broken to give any kind of tangible sign that the uptrend has resumed. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week though a rally above last week's high is a high probability. Short-term pivotal support is found at 38.17 that if broken would suggest a drop down to 37.14 would occur.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .135 (new price 1.60).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.28.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 23.09.

4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.48.

5) GS - Shorted at 224.11 and at 224.92. Average short at 224.515 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 225.88.

6) SLCA - Purchased at 26.08. Averaged long at 25.375 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 24.16. Stock closed on Friday at 27.38.

7) RIG - Averaged long at 9.22 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.56.

8) CLB - Purchased at 87.41. Averaged long at 95.876 (3 mentions) No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 89.59.

9) AMTD - Shorted at 46.01. Stop loss now at 44.80. Stock closed on Friday at 43.42.

10) MNK - Averaged long at 42.733 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 40.70.

11) ADSK - Covered shorts at 109.93. Shorted at 109.73. Loss on the trade of $20 per 100 shares plus commissions.

12) TOL - Shorted at 39.25. Stop loss at 40.35. Stock closed on Friday at 39.00.

13) ARNA - Purchased at 20.16. Stop loss at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 23.09.

14) AKAM - Covered shorts at 46.43. Shorted at 45.79. Loss on the trade of $64 per 100 shares plus commissions.

15) GS - Covered shorts at 216.47. Averaged short at 229.705. Profit on the trade of $2649 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions.

16) RENN - Purchased at 7.55. Liquidated at 7.34. Loss on the trade of $21 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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