Issue #533 ![]() July 2, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Correction Likely Underway. Negative Signals Given This Past Week!
DOW Friday closing price - 21349
The indexes all generated a red weekly close on Friday, suggesting that the drive for higher prices has ebbed. Additionally, all the indexes generated some kind of signal that a top has been formed, at least a temporary one for the summer, given that the DOW generated a failure signal, having made an a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high the previous week and then failing to follow through and closing below the previous all-time weekly closing high at 21384. In the case of the SPX, the red weekly close generated a double top at 2439/2438, using the 2 high weekly closes over the past 5 weeks. In the case of the NASDAQ, the index generated a successful retest of the previous all-time high weekly close at 6305 with a high weekly close the previous week at 6265 and a red close on Friday as well as giving a sell signal, having closed below the previous low weekly close at 6151.
All the indexes closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low will be seen this week (DOW below 21197, SPX below 2405 and NAZ below 6087).
The NASDAQ has been the leader to the downside for much of the past couple of weeks, much like it was a leader to the upside for most of the previous 8 years, suggesting that the signals given this past week are viable and dependable chart indicators. The index broke all supports this past week that have been built over the past 6 weeks (intra-week and closing) and also confirmed a failure signal of the previous all-time high daily close, having closed 2 days in a row below the all-time high daily close at 6169 that occurred on May 16th.
The indexes do have important and possibly catalytic economic reports this week, with the ISM Index coming out on Monday, Factory Orders and the FOMC Minutes from the past Fed meeting on Wednesday and the Jobs Report on Friday. Nonetheless, given that none of these reports have been catalytic the past couple of months and that the Fed did raise interest rates last month and no surprises are expected to come out of the FOMC meeting minutes, none of the reports are likely to be good enough (or bad enough as the case may be) to change the chart outlook. As such, there is more of a chance of the reports disappointing than uplifting and therefore giving the traders more reasons to fulfill the downside chart objectives.
To the downside, once again the NASDAQ should be the leader, given that the 6000 level is a magnet and that below last week's low at 6087 there is no support of consequence the bulls can gather and buy from. Nonetheless, the 6000 level (and down to 5970) is considered decent support as there is an important spike low at 5996 from May 18th and there is a runaway gap between 5970 and 5919 that is highly likely to be defended, especially given that the earnings quarter will start on July 14th and the reports in the index start with NFLX on July 17th. By the same token, expecting strong support from the earnings quarter (as has been seen in the past) is not a dependable event given that the market usually shows the weakest numbers of the year in the summer months. It is not expected that the "June Swoon" will occur this year but a correction or simply a pause is likely to be seen, especially with the highly overbought and likely overdone prices to the upside.
In the DOW, the downside target is likely to be the 20700-20800 level though there is psychological support at 21000 and in the SPX the 2400 level beckons strongly but there is no intra-week support of consequence until 2353 is reached. Then again, the previous all-time high weekly close at 2383 should be difficult to break on a weekly closing basis without negative news, meaning that a drop of about 40 points from Friday's close can be expected to be seen over the next few weeks.
The probabilities strongly favor the indexes heading lower this coming week but the bulls still have been mostly successful buying dips, meaning that the action is likely to continue to be yo-yo like but with a bearish bias. In addition, the threat of the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter (between July 14th and August 2nd) will also likely prevent the bears from getting too much momentum to the downside.
On another negative note though, the VIX did give a buy signal on Friday on the weekly closing chart, as well as a failure to follow through signal, having closed above the most recent high weekly close at 10.70, which means that it also closed above the low weekly close for the past 10+ years at 10.58, a close that was made in January of this year and that got broken to the downside 5 weeks ago.
Simply stated, there is now "overwhelming" chart evidence across the board that at least a temporary top has been built in the index market and that a correction is underway.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
Based on the action seen this past week I was going to offer some sell mentions this week. Nonetheless, I had an accident this morning (Sunday) that has had me in bed almost all day and has not allowed me the time or ability to do much in the way of deep chart evaluations.
Nonetheless, I was talking to a previous subscriber yesterday and he mentioned a stock that I had been trading often in the past and he told me that he believes the stock is ready to move higher due to a positive fundamental change. I did the chart evaluation on that stock yesterday and was going to offer it in the newsletter anyway, so there is at least 1 mention in the newsletter. As it is, it seems that the opposite of what has been happening over the past year is happening now, in the form of the stocks that have been going down while the big stocks have been going up is reversing itself, inasmuch as there seems to be a shift toward the cheap and undervalued stocks over the popular ones that have been played this year. As such, this mention has a good chance of being successful even if the indexes head lower as I expect them to.
I will say though, in offering a sell mention this week, that additional positions should be shorted in AAPL if the stock breaks the recent low at 142.20. The objective would be the $130-$132 level and a sale around $142 and using a daily close stop loss at 144.99 will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio. The stop loss would likely be lowered to 142.47 within 3 days of the stock breaking below 142.20.
PURCHASES
VHC Friday Closing Price - 4.55
VHC gave a buy signal 5 weeks ago when it broke the 51-week intra-week high at 5.13 (got up to 5.40) and generated a 10-month high weekly close above 3.97, which has now been confirmed with higher weekly closes the past 3 weeks. The rally was based on a 5-year agreement the company signed with a Japanese company (PITA) to build an alliance of 4G providers to offer their services in Japan.
Nonetheless, since the initial rally VHC has not seen any additional buying interest and last week the stock generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high but then going below the previous week's low and closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.45 will be seen this week.
It is likely that the traders of VHC are going to test the weekly close breakout at 3.97 to see if the buying interest is still there based on the positive change of fundamentals. The probabilities do favor the retest occurring as well as the buying interest.
To the upside, VHC shows minor to decent intra-week resistance at 6.50 and then decent to perhaps strong resistance at the 32-month high weekly close at 7.55, that includes the 200-week MA, currently at 7.65. Nonetheless, based on the positive change of fundamentals, the strong base between 1.70 and 1.95 that is now seen as a strong bottom and the breakout above the 12-month intra-week high, the probabilities of the traders targeting the 7.55 level of resistance is now high, if and when the retest of the breakout area is successful.
The biggest problem right now is finding the best entry point into the purchase of VHC. The stock is presently showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the 2-week rally from 3.35 to 5.40 and the flag being the trading range back down to 4.35 seen the past 3 weeks. A break of the top of the flag at 5.40 would offer a 6.40 objective. As such, the 4.35 level (bottom of the flag) is unlikely to be broken. By the same token, the breakout area at 3.97 (based on a weekly close) is a magnet that will be reached if the news is not as bullish as the charts initially represented. A retest of that area does make sense, especially since there is minor to decent intra-week support at 3.95.
Either way and with a 7.50 ultimate objective, a purchase of VHC at either of these 2 levels offers a good risk/reward ratio.
A purchase of VHC between 3.97 and 4.36 and using a stop loss at 3.65 and having a 7.50 objective will offer at least a 4.4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
MONTHLY RESULTS
Normally in the first newsletter of each month I give the monthly results for the previous month. Nonetheless, because of the accident I had today I was unable to do it this week. The monthly results for June will be available next week.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AAPL generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high, below the previous week's low and closing in the red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 142.28 will be seen this week. The stock is now showing a bearish inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the 2-week drop from 155.98 to 142.20 and the flag the action seen the past 3 weeks back up to 148.28. A break below the bottom of the flag at 142.20 will offer an objective of 134.50. To the downside and on an intra-week basis, there is minor support at 142.20, at 140.06, and at 138.62. Below that level though, there is no support until the previous all-time weekly closing high at 132.64 is reached. Using the daily chart, the same intra-week supports are found with one additional one at 137.05. Nonetheless, a break of the 140.06-142.20 support area does open the door for a drop down to the 200-day MA, currently at 130.00, meaning that if the flag formation objective is to be fulfilled, on an intra-week basis the stock could get all the way down to 130.00 without finding the kind of support that would generate a decent bounce. To the upside, the 148.28 level is now considered decent and pivotal resistance. Probabilities strongly favor the bears. ARNA generated the first buy signal of consequence on the weekly chart since November 2014, having closed on Friday above the high weekly close for the past 8-months at 16.40 (closed at 16.87). The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 17.37 is expected to be seen. In addition and as an added positive, the stock did retest successfully the 200-day MA, currently at 14.80, having closed at 14.88 a week ago Friday and closing above that level all 5 days last week, meaning that the break of that line is now confirmed. Above the high seen 2 weeks ago at 17.75, there is resistance at 19.20, at 20.60 and at 21.60. Above that level, there is further resistance at 24.50 and at 26.82. Nonetheless and going back 9 years and using the weekly closing chart, the 2 resistance levels that stand out are at 21.60 and at 24.60, with the first being 2 previous high weekly closes seen in January 2011 and again in November 2015 and the 24.60 level being a major low weekly close seen in April 2009. These levels are not likely to get broken without some additional positive news. Citigroup started coverage this past week with a buy rating and a $23 objective that fits in well with the chart picture. To the downside, any intra-week move below 14.54 would now be considered a negative. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. CLB generated a green weekly close that made the previous week's close at 98.23 into a successful retest of the October low weekly close at 97.34. In addition, the stock is now showing a 4-point uptrend that started in January 2015 with a low weekly close at 92.75, which was then followed by a January 2016 low weekly close at 95.27 and the October 9734 low weekly close and the close 2 weeks ago. The 4-point trend line offers the bulls a viable and dependable support line that should not be broken without a negative change of fundamentals. The stock closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 101.95 will be seen this week. To the upside and on an intra-week basis, there is minor resistance between 104.93 and 105.33, a little bit stronger between 106.62 and 106.99 and then decent as well as pivotal at 109.71. Intraweek support is now found at 99.37 and pivotal at 97.79. The chart suggests that the worst of the recent correction from 109.71 is over and that the stock is likely to be working higher toward the 107.00 level. Probabilities favor the bulls. CLF continued its recovery, having made another green weekly close and closing slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.20 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is found at 7.39 and then nothing until minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 8.45. On a daily closing basis though, the 200-day MA, currently at 7.75 will be a tough nut to crack as the stock has traded below that line since March 12th and the line has proven in the past that it is a MA that is followed closely by the traders. Intra-week support is now found at 6.66 that has a decent probability of holding up on any dips. Probabilities favor the bulls this week with perhaps a 6.66 to 7.39 trading range. Reaching higher levels, such as the 200-day MA or the resistance at 8.45 should take 1-3 weeks to achieve. ENG confirmed the previous week's positive reversal, having generated a higher high and another green close this past week. In addition, a small buy signal was generated on the weekly closing chart, having closed above the previous high weekly close at 1.24. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.39 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, in spite of the positive stated above, the bulls failed to generate a close above the 1.29-1.31 weekly close resistance level that has been pivotal since October 2014, meaning that questions about a recovery rally having started remain unanswered. On another possible positive note, the stock has built a bullish flag formation on the daily chart with the flagpole being the 5-day rally from 1.06 to 1.39 and the flag the trading range down to 1.23 seen over the past 4 days. A break above 1.39 would offer an objective of 1.56. Intra-week resistance of some consequence is found between 1.35 and 1.39 but it is resistance that is now considered multiple highs as there are 4 highs at that price seen over the past 3 weeks, suggesting that they will get broken. Above that level, there is no resistance of consequence until 1.55-1.58 is reached. Support is now found at 1.23, at 1.20 and at 1.17. Probabilities now favor the bulls for a rally with an objective of 1.58 to as high as 1.64, which is where the 200-week MA is currently located. FCEL made another new 9-week high this past week as the stock continued to inch up into the gap between 1.55 and 1.20 that was made after the last earnings report, with the stock having gotten up to 1.40 this past week. Nonetheless, it does look like the bears got back involved in shorting the stock as it closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.20 is expected to be seen this week. By the same token, the stock has not yet had a retest of the most recent low at .95 or another retest of the all-time low at .80 and after 6 weeks of higher lows than the previous week and 5 green weekly closes and 1 unchanged weekly close, it is likely that the traders are looking to find another and closer support level from which to attempt higher prices and a close of the gap, which would be a bullish statement. On a daily closing basis, support is found at 1.12, which was the daily closing high for 6 weeks (between May 5th and June 22) and when broken generated the rally up to 1.40. As such, that level should now be support. Probabilities favor the bears this week but overall it does seem that a strong support base is being built and from which in the near future the bulls will be successful in rallying the stock. KO made a new 6-week intraweek and weekly closing low on Friday and in the process generated a confirmed strong sell signal on the daily closing chart, having broken a decent daily close support at 45.03 on Thursday and confirming it on Friday with another close below that level. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 44.65 is expected to be seen. The next intra-week support level is found at 43.94, then a bit stronger at 43.13 and then a bit stronger again at 42.87. To the upside, resistance is now found at 45.51 that if broken would negate the break seen this past week, meaning that the stop loss can now be lowered to 45.61. Probabilities favor the bears and a drop down to the 43.94 level this week. MNK generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 7 week high and then closing in the red and near the lows of the week suggesting further downside below last week's low at 44.03 Intraweek support is found at 43.67, at 43.25, and then possibly short-term pivotal at 42.77. Below that level, there is decent support on the weekly chart at 41.57. The stock has not yet retested successfully the double bottom at 38.81/38.80 and the move down this past week is likely to become that required/needed retest. Weekly chart suggests that a drop all the way down to 41.57 could be seen but then again with the stock being one of the high Sharpe stocks that Goldman Sachs is recommending and having given a strong failure signal off of the all-time lows made in June, it is more likely that strength rather than weakness will be seen, meaning that the weekly close support at 43.09 is not likely to be broken. ORLY made a new 26-month intra-week and weekly closing low this past week and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 215.75 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock did get down to the 200-week MA, currently at 216.00, which is a line that has not been broken or even tested for the past 8 years, suggesting that a bounce should be seen from this level. In fact, the stock did bounce on Friday, having rallied $3.73 from Thursday's low and closing on the high of the day, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 219.48 will be the first course of action for the week. To the upside, intra-week resistance is found at 225.30 that if broken would suggest the stock will rally to the weekly close support at 232.16 that when broken generated the move down to this level. Probabilities favor the bulls for a green close next Friday. RIG generated a non-eventful inside week, having trade above the previous week's low and below the previous week's high. The stock did close in the green but did not negate the previous week's new all-time weekly closing low, meaning that the bears are still in control but that the selling interest is waning, likely because oil had a positive week. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.01 will be seen this week. By the same token, the double bottom at 7.66/7.676 on the intra-week chart has not yet had a successful retest of it, meaning that if the stock does go below last week's low that it could turn into the required/needed retest that if successful would likely bring about a short covering rally. Any weekly close above 8.33 would generate a failure signal against the bears. Intra-day support is found at 7.85. Minor intra-week resistance is now found at 8.55 and likely pivotal at 9.22. Nonetheless, any daily close above 8.84 would also give a failure signal against the bears on the daily chart. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week for a drop down to 7.85 but likely favors them for the end of the week for a green weekly close. X generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 9-week high and then closing in the red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 21.46 will be seen this week. The stock did get close to the 200-week MA, currently at 23.55 with a high this past week at 23.30, meaning that it is possible that the line has now been retested successfully and that the bears will now once again exert new selling pressure. There is no intra-week support until very minor support is found at 20.79 and then a bit stronger and more indicative at 20.13. Nonetheless, a daily close below 21.57 would stunt the momentum that the bulls have recently achieved as it would generate a short-term sell signal, which is not something that has occurred since the 20.13 close seen on June 16th that was negated the following day. The negative reversal week and the possible successful retest of the 200-week MA does give the edge back to the bears with the question being asked now is "whether the stock will resume the downtrend or is in the base building process.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .103 (new price 1.24). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.29. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 16.87. 4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.92. 5) GS - Covered shorts at 223.54. Averaged short at 223.85. Profit on the trade of $70 per 100 shares (2 mentions) minus commissions. 6) X - Averaged long at 29.765 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.25. 7) RIG - Averaged long at 9.22 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.23. 8) AMTD - Covered shorts at 42.25. Averaged short at 39.48. Loss on the trade of $831 per 100 shares (3 mentions) plus commissions. 9) KO - Shorted at 45.48. Stop loss now at 45.61. Stock closed on Friday at 44.85. 10) AXP - Averaged short at 81.62. Covered shorts at 83.74. Loss on the trade of $424 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 11) MNK - Averaged long at 43.325 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 40.93. Stock closed on Friday at 44.81. 12) CLB - Purchased at 99.37. Stop loss now at 97.65. Stock closed on Friday at 101.27. 13) ORLY - Purchased at 216.64. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 218.74. 14) AAPL - Shorted at 144.32. Stop loss at 148.38. Stock closed on Friday at 144.02.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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