Issue #521 ![]() Apr 2, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Mixed Signal in Indexes. Unclear Future!
DOW Friday closing price - 20663
The DOW generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week low and then turning around to close in the green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 20753 will be seen this week.
It is possible and perhaps even probable that the DOW's first correction since the election has now occurred, having moved down 3.5% from the highs and reaching 20412, which is a 757 point drop from the 21,169 high seen a few weeks ago. In 1999 when the index got above 10,000 for the first time, it continued straight up to 11130 before a correction occurred, it then dropped 721 points to 10409, meaning that both events where a major psychological level was broken for the first time are now showing almost identical first correction drops. If the mimicking continues, the index will continue rallying and make a new all-time high above 11130 by about 120 before another correction occurs.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor but short term pivotal resistance at 20757, Above that level, there is minor to now perhaps even decent resistance at 21000 and minor to perhaps decent at 21169. Above that level, there may be some "general" resistance at 21,300.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows very minor support 20,578 and minor to perhaps decent at 20,412. Below that level, there is nothing until the 20000 demilitarized zone (19970-20030) is reached. Further support is found at 19831 and minor to perhaps decent as well as pivotal at 19784.
The DOW has been underperforming the other indexes for the past few weeks which suggests that the traders have begun to liquidate their positions given that most of the speculative capital that got involved in the Trump rally went into the DOW and the safety of the Blue Chip stocks. The liquidation means that either the traders are strongly convinced the overall market will continue higher and no longer need to get involved with safe stocks or are speculating that the run to the upside is almost over. If Trump had gotten started with success, the former would likely be the scenario but with the President now having 2 strikes against him, the probabilities favor the latter.
Though the rally and subsequent correction seen in the DOW this year has been similar to the one in 1999, the fundamentals are different and the index now finds itself having to rally an additional 506 points to get to the all-time high whereas the NASDAQ got up to its all-time high this week. The NAZ is likely to continue higher for another 90 points as the 6000 level will now beckon but that will only add an additional 200 points to the DOW (based on the action seen in both indexes the past 7 weeks), meaning that the traders are not likely expecting to see new all-time highs made in the DOW on this next rally as happened in 1999.
The DOW did generate a negative reversal on the monthly chart, having made a new all-time high and then closing in the red and on the lower half of the months trading range, suggesting The index will likely break last month's low at 20412 sometime this month. The previous month's high at 20851 will now be seen as resistance, meaning that there is a good possibility the index will see a trading range between 20,000 and 20,850 this month. Nonetheless, the index should show some minor strength this week with the objective of first reaching 20,850 before starting to head lower.
SPX Friday closing price - 2362
The SPX generated positive reversal on the weekly chart, having made a new 6-week low and then turning around to close in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2370 will be seen this week. By the same token and on a possible negative note for the beginning of the week, the index generated a red daily close on Friday as well as a close on the lows of the day, meaning that the week is likely to begin with selling interest.
Further complicating the chart picture, the SPX generated a negative reversal on the monthly chart, having made a new all-time high at 2400 but then closing in the red by only 1 point below last month close at 2363 and on the middle of the month's trading range, meaning that the traders have very little chart help in deciding what the index will be doing this month as none of the charts (daily, weekly, monthly) are clear on what is likely to happen in April.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows minor resistance at 2370, minor again at 2381, minor to perhaps decent at 2390 and decent at 2400.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows minor support at 2352, minor to perhaps decent at 2346 and decent at 2322. Below that level, there is no support until minor support at 2285 and likely short-term pivotal at 2267/2271. On a daily closing basis though, important support will be found at 2298.
The SPX chart suggests that the index is not likely to do anything of consequence (above 2400 or below 2322) until the fundamental picture clears up a bit more, meaning the Trump administration starting to have some success in working together and passing some legislation.
Even the probabilities for this week are clouded though the bulls have a very slight edge in being able to get above 2370 and then only if the NASDAQ drags it higher.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5911
The NASDAQ was the bull index this past week, having gotten up to the all-time intra-week high at 5928 on Friday and having made a new all-time high daily close on Thursday at 5916 (above 5904) and a new all-time high weekly close at 5911 (above 5900) on Friday. The index closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 5928 is expected to be seen this week.
It is evident that the bulk of the buying interest over the past 6 weeks has been focused on NASDAQ stocks as the index has clearly over performed the others. Nonetheless, that is not necessarily a bullish statement since the Blue Chip stocks are not following suit, meaning the traders may be unwinding the long Blue Chip/short Tech stock scenario that was seen immediately after the Trump election.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ now shows decent resistance at 5928. Above that level there is no resistance until the 6000 demilitarized zone is reached and that is only psychological resistance.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ now shows very minor support at 5831, minor to perhaps decent between 5800 and 5812 and decent at 5769/5781.
The bulls were able to negate the key reversal seen in the NASDAQ the previous week and now the question is "whether the bulls will be able to capitalize on it". There is a possibility of a double top being built, if and when the bulls are not able to follow through to the upside this coming week by more than a couple of points. Nonetheless, the probabilities do favor the bulls being successful, meaning that the 6000 demilitarized zone will become a magnet. On the other side of the coin, even if the bulls are successful in moving higher there is only room for another .8% to 1.7% before the bulls run into decent chart resistance at 6000, meaning that the upside (if seen) is now likely limited.
Probabilities favor the bulls in the NASDAQ this week.
Mixed signals are being given in the index market with the NAZ being the strong one and the DOW the weak one and the SPX undecided as to which index to follow. The fact mixed signals are being given is proof that the traders are unsure of what the Trump administration will be able to accomplish and until that becomes clearer, the indexes are likely to remain in a sideways trend with perhaps a slight bullish bias.
Nonetheless, this week there are quite a few important economic reports (ISM Index on Monday, Factory Orders on Tuesday and Jobs on Friday) that will start to fall on Trump's shoulders and as such could help determine direction. By the same token and based on what has been done so far (not much), the probabilities of the reports falling short of expectations are slightly higher than the reports coming better than anticipated, meaning the bulls have more at risk than the bears. The FOMC minutes come out on Wednesday but it is not likely there will be any surprises there.
If the economic reports come in as expected, the probabilities slightly favor the bulls if for no other reason than the 6000 level in the NAZ will beckon the index and that will likely drag the other indexes up as well. Nonetheless, if it evident that much further upside is not likely to be seen until such a time than Trump is able to institute the Tax reform policy he won the election on, which is unlikely to be instituted until August at the very earliest. As such, the probabilities favor the indexes trading in a peaks and valleys scenario over the next couple of months.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
I have no new mentions this week as the index market seems to be spinning its wheels with perhaps a slight inclination to the upside but on a limited basis. Simply stated, there is not enough movement in either direction to get into any new positions in either direction.
Nonetheless, I do want to buy additional shares of X this week given the fact that the Trump administration has made it very clear that they are supporting the use of U.S. Steel for all infrastructure spending and it will begin with the Keystone pipeline that was signed by executive action this past week. As such and in spite of the unclear direction of the indexes, it is probable that all U.S. Steel companies will gain because of it.
Purchases of X below 32.94 and using a stop loss at 30.65 and having a $56 objective will offer a better than 10-1 risk/reward ratio. See Held Stock update on stock for further details.
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. Status of account for 2017, as of 2/1 Profit of $784 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for March per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
NFLX (short) $364
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. NONE Total Profit for March, per 100 shares and after commissions $364 Closed out losing trades for March per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
DD (short) $71
Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.
BWP (long) $115 Total Loss for March, per 100 shares, including commissions $1882 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 3/31
ENG (long) $15
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
CNX (long) $363
Total $503 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 3/31
X (long) $141
CLF (long) $55 CLB (short) $3 Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
FSLR (long) $2727 Total $4358 Status of trades for month of March per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Loss of $5373
Status of account/portfolio for 2017, as of 2/28Loss of $4589 using 100 shares traded per mention.
ARNA continued to trade in the sideways trading range between 1.34 and 1.70 that the stock has been in for the past 5 months. There were no clues or action that suggests that the stock is ready to break out of that trading range, meaning that this directionless trading is likely to continue this week. A break below 1.34 or above 1.70 is needed to break the traders out of the mindless malaise.
CCJ made a new 5-week high and may having given a small buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed 1 point above the high weekly close for the same period of time (11.07 vs 11.06). The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.38 is the most likely scenario for this week. On a negative note though, for the past 26 trading days the 11.34/11.35 level has been a brick wall and though the stock got above that level by 3 points, it was not enough to see it as a break, meaning the bulls have more to do this week. Above 11.38 there is no previous resistance of consequence until the 12.00-12.30 level is reached. As such, further upside above last week's high would likely generate a decent rally. Support is now minor to decent as well as likely pivotal at 10.55. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CLB generated a positive reversal this past week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing above the previous weeks high. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 115.93 is expected to be seen. The stock followed what oil did and oil closed at a pivotal weekly close resistance level at 50.85, meaning that the close next Friday will decide what oil does for the next few weeks and the same thing applies to the stock. Minor to decent intra-week resistance is found at 116.49 that if broken would suggest the stock could continue higher to the 118.08-118.87 level, meaning that the stop loss should be lowered to 116.59. Friday was also a positive reversal day for the stock which also means that Friday's low at 113.77 is now short-term pivotal support that if broken would weaken the chart. Further intra-week support is found at 112.60 and at 111.65. Probabilities now favor the bulls but it is definitely a short-term pivotal week that depends on what oil does. CLF generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 18-week low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 8.54 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock tested successfully the 200-day MA, currently at 7.70, with a low at that price seen on Monday, followed by 4 days above that level and also successfully tested the previous 19-month daily closing high at 8.11 and from which the most recent rally up to 12.37 occurred. On a negative note though, the bulls did not do enough to negate the sell signal on the weekly closing chart that was given the previous week as a weekly close above 8.41 was needed, meaning that there are still a lot of questions unanswered for this week. By the same token, the positives seen this past week do outweigh the negatives, meaning that the probabilities favor the bulls. A rally above last week's high at 8.54 would likely be a signal to the traders that the stock will continue higher for another $1 as there is no resistance above that level until 9.46 is reached. CNX generated a failure signal on Friday having closed above the previous low weekly close at 16.44 that generated the drop down to 14.75. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 16.86 is expected to be seen this week. Minor intra-week resistance is found at 17.30 and then stronger and more meaningful at 17.85 that also includes the 200-day MA, currently at 17.70. Intra-week support is now found at 16.13 that if broken would weaken the chart and likely push the stock down to 15.41. Nonetheless, it is important to note that on the weekly chart there is no resistance found until 19.00-19.62 is reached, meaning that the probabilities now favor the bulls and for a nice rally. ENG generated a rally this past week as well as a green weekly close, suggesting that the selling pressure has abated, at least for now. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 1.94 will be seen this week. There is minor intra-week resistance at 1.95 but it is minor and the 2.00 level beckons as it is where the now short-term important and pivotal weekly close resistance is found. Above 1.95, there is minor intra-week resistance at 2.09 and minor to decent at 2.28. The stock now shows a confirmed successful retest of the 200-day MA, currently at 1.72, but further confirmation is needed with a break above 1.94/1.95 to bring in new buying interest. History suggests that a rally to retest the recent high at 3.10 is likely to be seen. Pivotal intra-week support is now found at 1.62. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. FCEL has come to a standstill given that for the last 3 weeks the stock has traded in very narrow trading ranges of less than 15 points between 1.35 and 1.50 and shown no direction on the weekly closes. The 1.25 intra-week low seen 8 weeks ago remains unbroken, as well as the 1.50 high that has not been broken for the past 17 trading days. With the stock closing on Friday at 1.37, the bears have a slight advantage this week. FSLR continued to deteriorate in value, having made a new 4-year intra-week and weekly closing low this past week and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 27.08 will be seen this week. On an intra-week basis, there is minor support at 25.66 and then minor to perhaps decent at 24.46. Nonetheless, with the target of $21 given by the recent downgrade, the bulls are fighting a difficult battle to stop the stock from going substantially lower. Nonetheless, between November 2013 and April 2014, a period of 5 months, the stock traded between a low of 24.46 and a high of 36.98 and the probabilities do favor that scenario occurring again. With no support below until 25.66 is reached, the probabilities favor further downside this coming week. In addition and since the 27.60 support level from 2013 got broken this past week, the 29.71 level is now considered minor to decent and likely short-term pivotal resistance. Chart also suggests that for the next 4-6 weeks that the stock will trade between 24.66 and 29.71. Probabilities continue to favor the bears. LVLT negated last week's failure signal, having generated a green weekly close above the previous high weekly close at 56.90 that was broken last week. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 57.40 is expected to be seen this week. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 57.74 (57.47 on a weekly closing basis). A rally above that level would open the door for a rally at least up to 59.24. The chart seems to suggest that the stock is now presently in a sideways trading range between $55 and $60 as the traders await further news. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. MT generated a positive reversal this past week, having made a new 7-week low and then closing in the green on Friday and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.53 will be seen this week. Minor intra-week resistance is found at last week's high at 8.53 and then nothing until 8.83. Minor support is found at 8.28 and short-term pivotal at 8.08. Like with the indexes and most held stocks, it seems the stock may be in a trading range for the next couple of weeks and if that is the case, the 8.00 level is not likely to be broken and if the bulls can get above 8.83, a new attempt at the 200-week MA, currently at 10.20, may be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. X generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 8-week low but then turning around to close in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 34.30 will be seen. In addition, if the stock does go above last week's high, a double bottom at 30.71/30.73 will have been built which should give the bulls strong ammunition to take the stock up to at least the 39.14 high seen in December and perhaps even the 30-month high at 41.83. With Trump strongly supporting U.S. steel, the probabilities favor the bulls. Intra-week support is found at 32.93, at 31.80 and at 31.31. Consideration should be given to purchasing additional shares on dips down to that support area between 32.93 and 31.31 using a stop loss at 30.65. The monthly chart is showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 15.72 and 41.83 and the flag the drops down to 30.73. Objective of the flag if the top at 41.83 is broken is the $57 level. XON generated a green weekly close, suggesting that the sell pressure seen the previous 2 weeks has subsided. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to make a statement this week as the stock did not close above the minor weekly close resistance at 20.19, meaning that things are still unclear for the short term. In addition and even with the green weekly close, the stock generated an inside week and a close very slightly below the midpoint of the week's trading range, meaning that the outlook for this coming week is "up in the air". On a possible positive note, in November 2013 when the stock got down to 17.52 the stock then generated the following week a green close at 19.67 and the week after that the stock got up to 22.87 and the week after that to 23.16, which is the objective of this mention. Given that the action now seems to be mimicking the action then, it means that if the bulls can get above last week's high at 21.00 that further upside with $23 as the objective will become the outlook. By the same token, if last week's low at 18.55 is broken, the probabilities would favor the stock dropping down to at least 17.52. As such, the probabilities this week are a "flip of a coin" with the bulls having a very minor advantage.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .114 (new price 1.375). 2) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.47 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.07. 3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.865 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.85. 4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.46. 5) MT - Averaged long at 6.244 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 8.18. Stock closed on Friday at 8.35. 6) FSLR - Averaged long at 37.52 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 27.10. 7) LVLT - Purchased at 59.11. Stop loss now at 55.15. Stock closed on Friday at 57.22. 8) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.21. 9) CNX - Averaged long at 19.17 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 14.66. Stock closed on Friday at 16.78. 10) X - Averaged long at 34.125 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 30.65. Stock closed on Friday at 33.81. 11) BWA - Liquidated at 41.91. Averaged long at 40.. Profit of $316 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions. 12) NFLX - Liquidated at 140.66. Profit of $378 per 100 shares minus commissions. 13) XON - Purchased at 18.57. Stop loss at 18.42. Stock closed on Friday at 19.82. 14) CLB - Shorted at 115.52. Stop loss at 116.59. Stock closed on Friday at 115.55.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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