Issue #507 ![]() Dec, 18 2016 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Indexes Likely on a Xmas Pause!
DOW Friday closing price - 19756
The DOW extended the Trump inspired rally, having generated yet another new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high (the 6th in a row). Nonetheless, for the first time in this same period of time, the bulls were unable to close the index in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that the momentum has begun to ebb and that some selling interest is being seen as the index approaches the psychological 20,000 mark. It can be said that the index did get up to the 20,000 demilitarized zone as it accomplished a high at 19966.
The DOW is now facing 2 weeks of holiday trading and has already seen a 219 point trading range for the month. With the exception of the last 2 years when the index had already failed to make a new all-time high prior to December arriving, the index had shown that the month was a slow month for trading with the average being around the 300-350 point trading range, especially the last 2 weeks of the month. As such, it is likely that not more than about 100 points either above or below the present trading range, or a mixture of both will be seen this month.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW shows very minor resistance at 19966. Above that level, there is some psychological resistance at the 20,000 demilitarized zone between 19970 and 12030.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW shows minor support at 19748, general support at 19670-19720 and the very minor support at 19527.
The action in the DOW this past week suggests that some sideway trading with perhaps a slight upward bias will be seen the rest of the year (2 weeks). Probabilities favor the bulls generating a 20,000 print, given that is only 34 points above the high already seen this month. By the same token, the general support at 19,700 is also likely to be seen for the simple reason that the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 19747 is expected to be seen.
Probabilities slightly favor the bears in the DOW this week but only for a drop a few points below last week's low.
SPX Friday closing price - 2258
The SPX generated a negative reversal, having made a new all-time high at 2277 and then closing in the red. The reversal is a bit suspect as it was only by 1 point (last week's close was 2259) but the index did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2248 will be seen this week, meaning that even if it is not a signal of a top having been found, it likely is a signal of at least a 1-week pause occurring.
The SPX stopped trending the last 2 days of the week (after the interest rate hike), given that Thursday was an inside day and Friday was another inside day, suggesting the uptrend has stalled.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows minor resistance at 2277. Above that level there is no resistance.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 2248. Below that level, there is minor but again pivotal support at 2187 that is broken would likely push the index down to the 200-day MA, currently at 2125. On a daily closing basis, support will be found at the previous all-time daily closing high at 2190 (2184 on a weekly closing basis).
The SPX likely reacted to the language of the Fed rate announcement, inasmuch as traders were expecting that the Fed would look to raise interest rates 2 times in 2017 and yet the announcement mentioned 3. It is not likely to cause much lasting damage but it was enough to stop the momentum this past week.
The SPX broken below both the 200 10-minute MA, currently at 2263 and below the 50 60-minute MA, currently at 2258. The break of those 2 intra-day MA's suggests that at the beginning of the week the index will be moving lower. The objective is likely to be the 100 60-minute MA, currently at 2232, which is a line that has been indicative in the past and that has been successfully tested on 2 occasions during the past 5+ weeks since it was first broken on November 8th (almost 6 weeks ago). As such, it is likely that at some point that line will be seen this week, which in turn suggests a possible downside objective for the week of somewhere between 2232 and 2237.
Probabilities slightly favor the bears in the SPX this week.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5437
The NASDAQ generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time high at 5486 and then closing in the red and in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5394 will be seen this week.
By the same token, unless there is some longer term selling interest (unlikely at this time), whatever downside is seen for the rest of the year is likely to be limited to the previous monthly close (November) at 5323 as it is unlikely that any kind of a negative statement will be made before Trump takes office.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at the double top that was created this past week at 5486/5485. Above that level, there is no resistance other than psychological at the 5500 demilitarized zone.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ shows very minor support at 5425 and then a tiny bit stronger at last week's low at 5394. Below that, there is very minor support at 5350. On a daily closing basis thought, there is minor to decent support at the previous all-time high at 5398 and then at 5339.
With the exception of the last 2 years, the NASDAQ has generally traded in a very narrow trading range in December, mostly around the 150 point mark. The index has already generated a 248 point trading range and without the economic calendar showing any possible catalytic reports due out, it is not expected that the present trading range will be expanded, or if expanded, by only a bare minimum.
Given that the previous month's close in the NASDAQ was 5323 and that it is not likely that level will be seen, much less broken, it would suggest that a trading range between 5340 and 5485 will be seen the next 2 weeks.
For this week, probabilities slightly favor the bears in the NASDAQ.
The "runaway freight train" has started to decrease in speed as the slow Xmas period begins. With the Fed increasing interest rates as expected, economic reports of consequence not due out for another 2 weeks, and the Trump fever temporarily subsiding as no new nominee mentions expected, there seems to be no catalyst at this time for the traders to use to generate further upside or downside of consequence.
Probabilities favor a sideways trading range for the rest of the year (with perhaps a very slight upward bias due to the psychological magnets above) as the traders wait for new information before committing new funds.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The charts suggest that the next 2 weeks (until the end of the year) will be uneventful and mostly without direction but perhaps with a very slight bullish bias. In addition, it is also expected that the trading ranges seen will be small, meaning that even for day or short-term trading it is unlikely that any trade will offer enough profit potential or a good risk/reward ratio. As such, there are no mentions on this newsletter and probably the same will occur next week.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA was able to shrug off some of the immediate selling pressure, having generated a green weekly close on Friday. By the same token, the stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning that there seems to be no direction shown for the next couple of weeks. Resistance is found at 1.67 and support at 1.35. Probabilities favor the stock trading between 1.40/1.42 and 1.60/1.62 for the rest of the year. CLB generated a negative reversal week, having gotten up close to the mention's objective at $125 (got up to 124.84) and then closing in the red. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 117.20 will be seen this week. The chart suggests a possible trading range between 113.00 and 125.42 may be seen during the next 2 weeks. With oil closing on Friday in the upper half of the week's trading range and expected to at least retest last week's high at 54.50, it would be expected the stock will also head higher at the beginning of the week. On the intra-day chart, there is resistance at 121.56 and then short-term pivotal at 122.73, meaning that taking profits between 121.50 and 122.50 on the positions purchased this week can be considered and then re-purchasing the positions on drops near the 113.00 level. Probabilities favor some strength at the beginning of the week and then weakness at the latter part of the week. CLF generated a red close week (the second of the last 4 weeks) and further downside below last week's low at 9.04 is expected to be seen. Minor intra-week support is found at 9.04 and then minor to perhaps decent at 8.57. Below that level, support is minor to decent on both a daily and weekly closing basis between 8.05 and 8.11. Resistance is short-term pivotal at 10.14. Chart suggests that the stock is likely to get back down to the 8.57 level and if that level is broken, then down to 8.00-8.11. Overall, chart remains bullish longer term but chart suggests some backing and filling will occur over the next 2 weeks with a very small possibility of the stock getting above 10.14 until after the New Year. CNX generated a 3.6% drop from the high of the week to the low of the week and closed near the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 18.75 is likely to be seen this week. Minor support is found at 18.75, decent but old at 18.50, and then minor at 17.86 and minor to decent at 17.13. A drop down to 18.50 is a high probability but that level does have some decent support, meaning that the probabilities do not favor the stock getting all the way down to the 17.13 level, especially during the next 2 weeks that are unlikely to generate much trading interest. Minor resistance is found at 19.75 and then decent as well as short-term pivotal at 20.66. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week. ENG generated a negative reversal, having made a new 21-month intra-week high but then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.52 will be seen this week. Downside objective for this correction is likely to be the test of the 200-week MA, currently at 1.48. Intra-week support is found at 1.42 and then stronger at 1.32, which was the low made in December 2013, after an 8-week drop occurred from the 1.88 high seen that year. Based on the 1.88 high broken this week with a 1.95 high, I would venture to say that the stock will not get below 1.42 on this occasion. Daily close resistance is at 1.69 that if broken, would give the bulls some unexpected ammunition. Probabilities favor weakness seen this week. FB presently has a bearish inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the $20 drop from 133.50 to 113.55 and the flag being the trading range seen the past 5 weeks with a high of 122.98. The stock rallied up to the top of the flag this week with a high at 122.50 but then turned around to close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 117.61 will be seen this week. A break of the bottom of the flag at 113.55 would offer a downside objective of 103.03. The stock has been straddling the 200-day MA, currently at 120.00, for the past 6 weeks but the close on Friday was the third occasion that the stock has closed below the line, suggesting that the bears now have more of an edge. The key for the week is last week's low at 117.61 that is also a support level. If broken, the stock is likely to drop down to at least 115.00 and just a breath away from the 113.55 level that would generate a lot of new selling if broken. Intra-week resistance is found at 121.08 that if broken in conjunction with a close above the MA line, would take some of the sell pressure away. Probabilities slightly favor the bears. FCEL made a new all-time intra-wee low below 1.90 (got down to 1.85) and a new all-time weekly closing low at 1.95 (below 2.00) but then closed in the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting the selling interest is beginning to dry up. Probabilities continue to favor the stock being in a 1.70-2.30 trading range for the next 2-4 weeks. FSLR bulls were successful in generating a failure to follow through signal on Friday, having closed above the 45-month previous low weekly close at 34.82 that was seen the second week of September and that confirms that the 29.21 is likely to be a major low weekly close. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 35.11 will be seen this week. There is minor to perhaps decent intra-week resistance at 36.98 that is further strengthened by a previous low weekly close from August 2013 at 36.72. Nonetheless, if the bulls can break above 36.98 and close next Friday above 36.72 there is no resistance until the 40.00-42.90 is reached. Short-term pivotal support is now found at 32.07 that if broken would derail the rally. Probabilities favor the bulls for this week. LVLT bulls were unable to make a new 8-year high, above the 57.59 high made on July 13th. It is evident the area between 57.00 and 57.59 is a brick wall, considering that the stock has been up to or above 57.00 on 13 occasions over the past 5 months and had 5 spike highs in that period of time (57.26 on 7/21, 57.00 on 10/31, 57.48 on 11/22, 57.00 on 12/8 and 57.30 on 12/14). The stock closed just 5 points above the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going above last week's high at 57.30 than below last week's low at 55.98. By the same token and given that the probabilities favor the indexes heading lower this week, the bears hold a slight edge. Intra-week resistance is found between 57.00 and 57.09, a bit stronger at 57.30 and another bit stronger at 57.59. Intra-week support is found 55.98, at 55.60 and short-term pivotal at 54.72. The stock closed on the highs of the day on Friday, suggesting that a rally up to the 57.00-57.09 level will be seen but if the bulls are unable to rally above that area, some selling pressure will be seen. Probabilities favor the stock trading between 54.72 and 57.09 for the next 2 weeks. MT generated a red close and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.63 will be seen this week. The red close also made the previous week's spike high at 8.85 into a successful retest of the low weekly close from July at 8.57, a level that when broken caused the stock to drop to the 13-year low at 2.93. Simply stated, the stock reached the first area where some chart selling was expected to be found. Intra-week support is found at 7.37 and stronger, as well as weekly close support is found between 6.71 and 6.85, which includes the 100-week MA, currently at 6.90. It is to be expected that having found some selling interest that the $7 level would be tested, given that not only is there previous support there but is also a general support. By the same token, the resistance level found at 8.57 is minor in nature and as such, the uptrend should resume after a retest of the $7 occurs, meaning this dip is an opportunity to purchase additional shares. The short-term pivotal area to watch this week is 7.37 as there is recent intra-week support at that level that has a good opportunity of holding up. If that level does hold up and 8.19 is broken to the upside, the uptrend should resume. NFLX continued its recent uptrend, having generated the 5th green weekly close in a row. Nonetheless, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting last week's low at 122.30 will be broken this week and the short-term uptrend paused or stopped. A drop below last week's close in addition to a red close next Friday, would mean last week's high at 127.43 will become a successful retest of the October high at 129.29 as well as a second successful retest of the all-time high made at 133.27 made in November 2015. Short-term pivotal support is found at 121.37 and then nothing until 113.95. Decent longer term support is found at 110.68. Minor intra-week resistance is found at 126.35 and minor to decent, as well as pivotal at last week's high at 127.43. The chart now seems set up for the bears to push the stock down to the 115.71-116.50 area. A "hard stop" has now been placed at 127.53. Probabilities favor the bears this week. XOM generated a gap break above the 200-week MA, mostly because the company's CEO (Tillerson) was chosen by Trump as Secretary of State. By the same token, it was likely that such a break was going to occur, given that oil also broke out and gave support to the stock. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 89.76 than above last week's high at 93.21. By the same token, a trading range between 89.70 and 93.45 is what is most likely to be seen for the next couple of weeks and with Tillerson having been chosen for Secretary of State, the longer term picture for the stock is rosy. Closure of the gap down at 89.00 would be a slight negative, while a break above 93.45 would be a positive. XON bulls were unable to generate any follow through buying off of the previous week's close in the upper half of the week's trading range and as such, generated a down week and a red close, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 27.75 is likely to be seen. Decent intra-week support is found at 27.52 that has a good probability of being seen. On a daily closing basis, there is decent support at 27.84 and on a weekly closing basis, there is minor support at 28.28 and minor to perhaps decent weekly close support at 27.34, suggesting that there is some limitation of risk to the downside. Probabilities favor the stock getting down to 27.50 this week and turning around. ZIOP got down to the 200-week MA, currently at 6.05, with a drop down to 6.04 and a rally back up to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 6.60 than below last week's low at 6.04. If the bulls can get above 6.60 this week, last week's low will become a successful retest of the line and new buying interest will likely be seen. The chart suggests that the base building that needed to be done has been done and that the stock is now ready for a breakout. The stock is showing a pyramid formation that if broken (a rally above 6.81) would offer an 8.60 objective. Pivotal intra-week support is found at 5.90. Probabilities favor the bulls.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .1625 (new price 1.95). 2) CLB - Liquidated 124.47. Profit of $2258 per 100 shares minus commissions. 3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.63. 4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.46. 5) MT - Averaged long at 6.244 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 6.18. Stock closed on Friday at 7.66. 6) FSLR - Averaged long at 41.758 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 35.10. 7) XOM - Purchased at 89.82. Averaged long at 88.845 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 86.50. Stock closed on Friday at 91.18. 8) CLB - Purchased at 117.51. Stop loss at 112.90. Stock closed on Friday at 120.29. 9) XON - Averaged long at 27.71. Stop loss now at 27.42. Stock closed on Friday at 28.35. 10) NFLX - Shorted at 122.60. Hard stop loss now at 127.53. Stock closed on Friday at 124.22. 11) CLF - Purchased at 9.15. Stop loss at 7.69. Stock closed on Friday at 9.20. 12) LVLT - Shorted at 56.21. Stop loss at 57.35. Stock closed on Friday at 56.24. 13) CNX - Purchased at 20.28 and at 19.82. Averaged long at 20.05. Stop loss is at 16.65. Stock closed on Friday at 19.21. 14) FB - Shorted at 121.32. Stop loss at 123.35. Stock closed on Friday at 119.87.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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