Issue #502
Nov, 6 2016
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bears in Control. Correction Under Way!

DOW Friday closing price - 17888

The DOW generated a new sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the low weekly close for the past 4-months at 18085. In addition, the index closed below the psychological support at 18000 and on the lows of the week, suggesting that not only further downside below last week's low at 17883 will be seen but that the bulls have begun to capitulate as below 18000 the support found is old and minor until the 17000 level is reached.

The DOW has now fallen 4.2% over the past 12 weeks and has printed 7 red days in a row and 10 out of the last 12. With the bulk of the earnings reports now out, the economy sputtering forward but with no outlook for it to get stronger anytime soon, and high expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates in December, there doesn't seem to be any reasons to be a buyer at this point, especially with no chart support of consequence found nearby.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 18000 demilitarized zone (17970-18030). Further resistance is found at 18085 and then minor to decent at 18167.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the index now shows minor support between 17664 and 17713, which does include on a daily closing basis the 200-day MA, currently at 17775. Below that level, there is minor to perhaps decent support at 17471, just a tad stronger at 17331, and then decent to perhaps strong and certainly longer term pivotal at 17063.

The chart picture of the DOW is certainly strongly leaning in favor of the bears as there is now decent resistance 110 to 260 points to the upside, while there is mostly minor support below for another 800 points, meaning that the risk/reward ratio for a bear is 4-1 or better while the risk/reward ratio for a bull is no better than 1-4.

The election on Tuesday could change the outlook for the DOW and as such there is still some uncertainty. Then again, the probabilities do not favor either candidate being a positive for the market, meaning that the probabilities favor the bears.

SPX Friday closing price - 2126

The SPX made a new 4-month low and in the process generated a sell as well as a failure signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the September low weekly close at 2127 and below last year's weekly closing high at 2126. The index closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 2083 is expected to be seen this week.

On a small positive note, the SPX held above the 200-day MA, currently at 2083, which is a line that has not been broken since June and broken only once for 1 day since March, suggesting the traders may wait until after Tuesday's election results to make further decisions.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows minor resistance at 2104, a bit stronger at 2111/2113 and decent at 2120.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows minor support at 2074 and again at 2067, minor to perhaps decent at 2050 and again between 2039 and 2044, minor to decent at 2025 and decent as well as mid-term pivotal at 1991.

The failure signal given in the SPX this past week is a "back breaker" that will require a positive fundamental change to negate. With the high (68%) likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates in December, it does not seem that there is any fundamental positive on the immediate horizon that could help the bulls at this time. As such, the bulls are likely to be playing a defensive game in which limiting the losses will be of primary concern.

The first obstacle the bulls will face in the SPX is defending the 200-day MA at 2083. Nonetheless, based on the action seen last week and the events that led to the fall, the probabilities do not favor the bulls being successful in defending that line unless the election results are deemed favorable to the market. As such, the next level of defense that will need to be defended is the 1991-2025 area that represents the mid-term support that needs to hold up as well as the strong psychological support at 2000. If those supports are all broken, the longer term trendline (represented by the 200-week MA) currently at 1925, will be the battleground if the bulls fail to defend any of the levels mentioned above. Based on the chart, reaching the 200-week MA could happen over a period of 8-12 weeks.

Probabilities favor the bears in the SPX.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5190

The NASDAQ produced a strong negative week, having made a new 14-week low, generating a sell signal on the weekly closing chart by breaking and closing below the 2-month low weekly close at 5125 (5097 on an intra-week basis) and giving a failure signal, having closed below last year's all-time weekly closing high at 5210. The index closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 5034 is expected to be seen.

The NASDAQ has now fallen 5.8% in the past 4 weeks and having broken the 3-month low at 5097, a confirmation signal was given of the double top at 5342/5340, which considering it is double top at the all-time high, suggests that a major top has been formed that will require strong fundamental positives over the next few months to overcome. No such positives seem to be on the horizon.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ now shows minor resistance at 5088 and minor to perhaps decent, as well as short-term pivotal at 5116. Above that level, decent resistance is found at 5177.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ will now show very minor support between 4999 and 5011, minor but short-term pivotal at 4970/4974 and the minor again at 4909. Below that level, there is minor to perhaps decent support at 4871 and then nothing until the 4700 area is reached.

The chart of the NASDAQ is strongly favoring a minimum drop to the 5000 level but if that psychological support is broken convincingly, the chart would favor a drop down to the 4700 level as the support areas are all minor in nature. It should also be mentioned that based on the October/November correction seen in 2012, a 12.6% drop would occur, which would put the index down to 4676.

By the same token, last year the NASDAQ started a correction in November and that correction lasted 10 weeks, taking the index down 16% in that period of time. This correction does have that same potential, given the interest rate hike expected to be seen in December and the negative reaction that is also expected to be seen after the election no matter who wins. Such a correction is also possible as it would give a 4485 objective and that is where the 200-week MA is currently located (at 4445).

Probabilities strongly favor the bears in the NASDAQ.


The indexes all gave strong negative chart signs this past week that a correction is underway. Levels of support built over the past 3-4 months, as well as important previous all-time highs from last year were broken and with the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter being over and 74% of the companies reporting better than expected earnings and the indexes still falling in price, the outlook is negative.

The election is this week and that seems to be the only thing that could help turn the negative signs around. Nonetheless, both candidates are considered to be negatives for the market, suggesting that no matter who wins, the market is likely heading lower. In addition, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates in December and that is likely to hang over the market ominously. It should be mentioned that last year the indexes fell strongly from November to February in spite of the fact the Fed did not raise interest rates in December as they were expected to do. As such, it is possible and maybe even likely that the domino effect has started with the first domino having fallen this past week and that lowering interest rates in December will just make it all worse that what it looks now. The outlook for the rest of the year seems to be all negative.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

No mentions this week. Traders likely to await election results on November 8th before committing to any direction. By the same token, with the election not likely to be of help to the bulls, short positions should be the only ones considered. Mentions will be given in the message board on Wednesday, after the election results are out and some idea of how the traders are reacting to it.

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2016, as of 10/1

Loss of $5411 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for October per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

NONE

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

NONE

Total Profit for October, per 100 shares and after commissions $0

Closed out losing trades for October per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

CLB (short) $240

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

EBAY (long) $124
FCEL (long) $209
GOOGL (put option) $1374

Total Loss for October, per 100 shares, including commissions $1947

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 10/30

XON (long) $164

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

FSLR (long) $400
SINA (short) $169
HON (short) $1382
MT (long) $207

Total $2322

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 10/30

GS (short) $2472
COF (short) $168

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

GS (short) $1701
ENG (long) $24
\ FCEL (long) $64
ARNA (long) $108
ADSK (short) 10
COF (short) $442

Total $5069

Status of trades for month of October per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.

Loss of $4694

Status of account/portfolio for 2016, as of 10/30

Loss of $10105 using 100 shares traded per mention.



Updates on Held Stocks

ADSK generated a strong down week, having dropped 8% intra-week from last week's high. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 67.15 is expected to be seen. By the same token, the bulls were able to rally the stock to close just 2 points below the low weekly close of the last 7 weeks, with the traders likely leaving the door open to see what the election results generate. In addition, the stock did bounce off of the general support at $67, suggesting that chart points of support is what the traders looked at last week. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday and a close near the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside with 71.23 as the possible upside objective. Nonetheless, probabilities do favor the bears this week, especially if unable to get above 71.23 and more so if unable to get anywhere close to that level. Minor support at 67.15 and at 66.78. Decent and pivotal support at 65.06.

ARNA made a new 8-month intra-week low and generated a sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having made a new 5-year weekly closing low on Friday below the 1.48 level seen in September. The stock closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.35 is expected to be seen. With the next weekly close support level not found until the 1.24-1.27 area is reached, it is expected that is now the target. Intra-week support from earlier this year is found at 1.30 but that level is expected to be broken based on the weakness recently seen and that the overall market is presently under sell pressure, suggesting that drop down to the 1.21-1.27 level is now on the agenda for the immediate future. By the same token, the stock did spend an entire year trading between 1.21 and 1.75 without that level of support breaking even once though the lows were seen on 4 occasions, suggesting that even though further downside is expected to be seen, the support at 1.21 (1.24 on a weekly closing basis) is not likely to be broken anytime soon.

COF followed through to the downside after the previous week's negative reversal and closed exactly on the 200-week MA, currently at 73.00, that had been broken to the downside the week before. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 71.91 is expected to be seen. By the same token, the traders left the door open for a rally should be election results be considered a positive for the market (unlikely either way). Intra-week resistance is found between 74.07 and 74.35. Intra-week support is found at 71.91, at 70.50 and decent at 69.49. The 200-day MA is currently at 69.02 and is a line that will likely determine direction for the next couple of months if seen and broken or holding. Probabilities favor the bears with a downside target of $67 to be reached within the next 2-4 weeks. By the same token, if the intra-week support at 66.10 is broken, the $60 level will be targeted.

ENG reported earnings but the stock made no moves up or down after the report, suggesting that there were no fundamental changes announced. The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.30 is expected to be seen. Decent intra-week support is found at 1.28 that is expected to hold but if broken and confirmed would be considered a decent negative that would likely push the stock back down to the 1.00-1.20 level over the next few months. Weekly close resistance is now found at 1.48 that if broken would suggest the uptrend that started in January would continue. Probabilities favor the bulls, though a drop down to 1.28 is likely to be seen. The weekly close support at 1.31 is considered more important than the intra-week support at 1.28, meaning that with the close on Friday at 1.32, a green close next Friday would be a positive.

FCEL continued the recent downtrend, having made another new all-time intra-week low at 2.70 and closing near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below that level will be seen this week. There is no downside objective, given that these are all new all-time lows. Minor but possible short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 3.20 that if broken would suggest a rally up to the bottom of the gap area between 4.10 and 5.10 would be seen. Nonetheless, until some fundamental buying interest is found, probabilities favor the bears.

FSLR generated a new 42-month intra-week and weekly closing low this past week and closed on the lows of the week suggesting further downside below last week's low at 32.41 will be seen this week. The company reported better than expected earnings but gave a lower outlook for 2017 and as such received downgrades from several rating agencies (one from $68 to $48). The next intra-week support level is found at 29.87, which is from December 2011 and given that in that year the stock traded down to 29.89 and then up to 50.20, it is possible and maybe even likely the same type of action will occur this time, especially considereing that the new upside target of the rating agencies is $48. As such, probabilities do favor the bears this week for a drop down to the $30 demilitarized zone but a turn around by the end of the week and a green close next Friday.

GS generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 11-month high but then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 174.73 will be seen this week. Immediate downside objective for this week has to be the 200-week MA, currently at 171.25, especially considering that there is also a decent intra-week support from October 2013 at that same price. Nonetheless, below 171.25 there is no intra-week support until 167.49 and below that there is nothing until 161.53. With the stock overbought, having built no support on the 6-week run from 157.77 to 179.17, and the index market likely heading lower, the probabilities strongly favor the bears. In fact, one of the reasons that the stock acted better than the indexes this past week was likely the gap area up at 180.03 (179.84 on the weekly chart) that the bulls were trying to close. Failure to close the gap leaves a long-term bearish formation and that is something the bulls were trying to prevent. The probabilities of the gap being closed now have diminished strongly, meaning that if the indexes start heading lower and the stock does the same, it could outperform the market to the downside this week.

HON generated a red close week and went below last week's low for the first time in the 4 weeks, suggesting the recovery phase is over and that the downtrend will now resume. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 108.01 is expected to be seen. Minor intra-week support is found at 107.41 and then nothing until the double low found only on the daily chart at 105.25/105.26. Intra-week resistance is found at 110.12 and then short-term pivotal at 110.87. Resumption of the downtrend would offer a $100-$101 minimum downside objective but given that the chart was already looking negative prior to the mini recovery phase, the chart suggests the stock could get at low as the 200-week MA, currently at 96.45. Probabilities favor the bears.

KGC generated a positive week that was more meaningful since there was no follow through to the downside from the previous week's negative reversal. The bulls were able to rally the stock to close above the 200-day and 200-week MA and close on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 4.27 will be seen this week. The rally was likely a reaction to the expectation that the election results, whatever they may be, may make Gold more attractive. Pivotal intra-week resistance is found at 4.61 that if broken would be a strong positive chart signal. By the same token, any red close next Friday below the 200-week MA, currently at 4.03, would mean that the election results do not favor Gold. Short-term pivotal support is found at 3.82 and short-term pivotal resistance is found at 4.37. An intra-week break below last week's low at 3.70 would put the stock back on a negative bias. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

MT had an uneventful inside week but did close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 6.50 will be seen this week. Minor intra-week support is found at 6.46, at 6.27, at 6.08 and short-term pivotal at 6.00. Intra-week resistance is found at 6.79 and pivotal at 6.90-6.94. It is still a bit of a mystery how commodities will react to whoever is elected and this is a commodity based stock. Suffice it to say that anything about $7.00 or below $6.00 would be indicative and anything in the middle would be non-directional.

SINA generated a strongly negative week, having made a new 12-week low and breaking convincingly all the support levels built during that period of time. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 67.70 is expected to be seen. The stock finds itself in a vacuum of support, given that the stock rallied straight up after the last earnings report from 57.50 to 85.25 without building any support on the way up. Old intra-week support from 2011 is found at 64.81 and from 2014 and 62.85, but recently there is no support until the gap area created after the August earnings report between 58.62 and 59.79 is reached. As such, it can be said with some certainty that if the "general" support at 67.00 is broken, that either 64.81, 62.85 of even the $60 demilitarized zone are targets. To the upside, there is resistance at 72.44 and then possibly pivotal on a daily closing basis as 73.83.

XON showed weakness this past week, having made a new 9-week low and getting down to a pivotal intra-week support level at 24.30 before generating a bit of buying interest to close still in the red but in the exact middle of the week's trading range and more importantly above the short-term pivotal weekly close support at 25.33 (closed at 25.39. The close in the middle of the week's trading range left the door open for either side to make a statement this coming week, possibly off of the election results. By the same token, the bears now have a slight edge since the 2-point trendline that had been built over the past 10-months was broken on Thursday and though it was not confirmed on Friday when the stock rallied to close exactly on the line currently at 25.35, it does suggest that where the stock closes on Wednesday after the election, will be meaningful. As it is, any rally above last week's high at 26.53 or below last week's low at 24.30 will be meaningful as well, though not likely to happen before Wednesday. Probabilities slightly favor the bears as the bulls seem to be on the defensive and without any scheduled reports that could give them ammunition for a sustained rally if the market heads lower.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .245 (new price 2.95).

2) FCEL - Liquidated at 3.35. Purchased at 5.27. Loss on the trade of $188 plus commissions.

3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.32.

4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.39.

5) MT - Averaged long at 5.57 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.23. Stock closed on Friday at 6.53.

6) FSLR - Purchased at 33.28. Averaged long at 42.55 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 32.48.

7) GS - Averaged short at 167.61 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 175.92.

8) HON - Averaged short at 117.09. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 108.25.

9) COF - Averaged short at 71.656 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 76.40. Stock closed on Friday at 73.10.

10) SINA - Averaged short at 76.855. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 69.01.

11) XON - Purchased at 25.96. Stop loss at 24.20. Stock closed on Friday at 25.39.

12) ADSK - Averaged short at 70.96 (2 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 69.44.

13) FSLR - Purchased at 34.02. Liquidated at 33.63. Loss on the trade of $39 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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