Issue #500 ![]() Oct, 23 2016 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
|
Traders Awaiting AAPL, AMZN, and GOOGL Reports for Direction!
No chart evaluations on the indexes were done this week. Traders await earnings reports on AAPL, AMZN, and GOOGL for decisions on what to do for the next few weeks.
|
Stock Analysis/Evaluation
|
CHART Outlooks
No mentions this week. Awaiting direction from the indexes.
|
Updates
|
Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ADSK ended up having an inside week that did not answer any of the questions posed by the previous week's negative drop in price but the stock did close near the highs of the week, suggesting that not only will the stock go above this week's high at 71.40 but that perhaps as early as Monday or at the latest by the end of this coming week a decision will be made on short-term direction. On a negative note, the bulls were unable to negate the sell signal given the previous week on the daily chart when the stock broke the 3-week daily closing lows at 71.08/71.18. The stock did close on Friday at 71.18 (highest daily close of the week) suggesting that a red or green close on Monday would be indicative of whether a top has been found or the recent drop in price was just a pause in the uptrend. Intra-week resistance is found at 72.62, at 73.07 and at the all-time high at 73.40. A rally back up to 72.62 would suggest a new all-time high will be made. Intra-week support is found at 68.77 and at 68.40 that if broken would suggest a minimum drop down to 66.78. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls as the uptrend remains intact at this time. ARNA generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week low but then closing in the green. The green weekly close made the previous weeks close at 1.55 into a successful retest of the recent multi-year weekly closing low at 1.48, as well as of the March weekly closing low at 1.50 and of the May weekly closing low at 1.53. On a slight negative note, the green weekly close was only by 2 points and the stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that the bulls failed to make a convincing statement/successful retest that will need further action this week to clear up. Last week's high and low at 1.65 and at 1.52 will be pivotal this week, meaning that a break of either will likely stimulate further action in the direction of the break. Probabilities "slightly" favor the bulls. COF has a strong week, having closed above the 200-week MA, currently at 72.70, for the first time in the last 20 weeks. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 75.24 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock has gone above the 200-week MA on 3 occasions over the past 40 weeks (since it broke below the line) and on the previous 2 occasions the break of the line lasted just 1 week, meaning that if confirmation is not seen this week with another close above the line, the break of the line will be meaningless. In looking at the monthly chart, the stock has been in a downtrend since July of last year with each rally falling short of breaking a previous monthly high of consequence. In this case, the previous monthly high of consequence is at 76.30, meaning that if the bulls are unable to break above that level by Monday October 31st that the downtrend will continue intact into November. The company reports earnings on Tuesday after the close, suggesting this coming week is pivotal. The areas to watch for at 76.30 on an intra-week basis, and 72.70 on a weekly closing basis. ENG did not generate any follow through to the downside off of the previous week's negative reversal week and ended up having an uneventful inside week but with a green weekly close, suggesting that a second successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 1.44, occurred. Intra-week support is found at 1.44 and at 1.40 and pivotal at 1.28. Intra-week resistance is found at 1.60 and at 1.72. Probabilities favor the bulls. FCEL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 8-month low and then closing in the green. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning the bulls were unable to make a statement of consequence. By the same token, if the bulls are able to generate a green close on Monday, a form of a bullish inverted Head & Shoulders formation will have been built on the daily closing chart, meaning that a daily close above 5.30 (most recent high daily close and neckline of the H&S formation) would offer a 5.75 upside objective, which is where the 200-day MA is currently at. Intra-week support is found at 4.98. Intra-week resistance at 5.35. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. FSLR generated a failure to follow through signal against the bears, having closed on Friday above the previous 3-year low weekly close at 40.72 that when broken brought about the drop down to 34.37. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 42.50 is expected to be seen this week. The stock has built a bullish flag formation that offers a 3-day objective of 45.45 if the top of the flag at 42.50 is broken and a 7-day objective of 47.49. Very minor daily close resistance is found at 44.23 and then nothing until the $47-$50 area is reached. Minor intra-week support is found at 41.17 and then a bit stronger at the $40 demilitarized zone. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls. GS had a strong week in which the 200-week MA, currently at 170.60, was broken convincingly for the first time this year. This was made possible by a better than expected earnings report. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 175.79 is expected to be seen. Intra-week resistance is found at 175.79 and then nothing until 177.50 which is where the gap between 177.50 and 179.84 from the January's earning report is located. If the gap is closed, there is decent resistance at 181.13. In looking at the monthly chart, there is decent (and likely not to be broken on a monthly closing basis) resistance at 177.34 and it also needs to be mentioned that on that same chart, a bearish Head & Shoulders formation seems to be in the process of being built that if the neckline down at 148.58 is broken it would offer a 3-year sub $100 objective. It is important to note that the stock traded below the 200-week MA for a period of 10 months and the news that caused the stock to break above the line was not strong enough to generate a lot of new buying, meaning that the probabilities are high that within 1-2 weeks the line will be tested if not broken again to the downside. As such, I am planning on holding on to the short positions, at least through Thursday when the big earnings reports are out and the market has decided on a short-term direction. HON spun its wheels this week, having generated an inside week and a close 4 points below the previous week's close. Simply stated, nothing of any consequence occurred. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 109.60 is expected to be seen. Minor to perhaps decent intra-week resistance is found at the $110 demilitarized zone (109.70-110.30) and then a bit stronger at 111.96 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 111.80. Intra-week support is found at 107.41 and then at 106.09. Probabilities favor an early week rally up to the 110.00 level and then a down draft the rest of the week. KGC continued to generate a partial recovery, having made another green weekly close and closing on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 3.93 is expected to be seen. The 200-day and 200-week MA are currently at 4.07 and 4.10 respectively and the weekly close support that caused the move down to 3.42 to occur is at 4.09, meaning that it is likely the stock will get back up to that area this week but whether the bulls will be able to negate the break and resume the previous uptrend is the big question being asked. Minor intra-week support is found at 3.75 and at 3.58. Pivotal intra-week resistance is found at 4.37. Probabilities favor the bulls for a rally up to 4.10 but after that it is a flip of a coin. MT generated a new 52-week intra-week and weekly closing high this past week and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6.78 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, there is still a minor to perhaps decent weekly close resistance at 6.71 (6.94 intra-week) that needs to be broken this week for the bulls to generate new buying interest. It is important to note that above this resistance level (6.71-6.94) there is "open air" until 9.64 is reached. Intra-week support is found at 6.27 and then at 6.08. Probabilities favor the bulls. SINA generated an uneventful inside week but a close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of the stock going above last week's high at 77.85 than below last week's low at 74.08. Pivotal resistance is found at 78.47 and pivotal support at 73.42. Chart is leaning decently to the bear side so even though the probabilities slightly favor the bulls at the beginning of the week, overall the probabilities favor the bears. XON bulls attempted to generate a positive reversal, having made a new 5-week low but then turning around to close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 27.14 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to generate a green weekly close (fell short by 5 points - 26.68 to Friday's close at 26.63), leaving question marks as to what will happen this week. Minor intra-week support is found at 25.67 and at 25.01 and then decent as well as strongly pivotal at 24.30. Minor intra-week resistance is found at 27.14, a bit stronger at 27.49 and minor to decent between 28.30 and 28.57. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but it could be another back and forth week without clear direction.
|
1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .425 (new price 5.10). 2) FCEL - Purchased at 5.27. Stop loss now at 4.65. Stock closed on Friday at 5.10. 3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.49. 4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.57. 5) MT - Averaged long at 5.57 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.23. Stock closed on Friday at 6.68. 6) FSLR - Averaged long at 44.87 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 33.64. Stock closed on Friday at 42.25. 7) GS - Averaged short at 167.61 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 174.67. 8) HON - Averaged short at 117.09. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 108.96. 9) COF - Averaged short at 71.656 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 76.40. Stock closed on Friday at 74.89. 10) SINA - Averaged short at 76.855. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 76.29. 11) XON - Purchased at 25.96. Stop loss at 24.20. Stock closed on Friday at 26.63. 12) GOOGL - Opotions expired worthless. Loss on the trade of $1370. 13) ADSK - Averaged short at 70.96 (2 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 71.18.
Previous Newsletters
|
The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
![]() |
|
|