Issue #499 ![]() Oct, 16 2016 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Indexes Make New 4-month Lows. Suggest Correction has Started.
DOW Friday closing price - 18138
The DOW generated a negative reversal week, having gone above and below the previous week's trading range and closing in the red and in the bottom half of the week's trading range, suggesting that not only will further downside below last week's low at 17959 will be seen this week but that a second successful retest of the all-time high at 18668 occurred, which in turn means the chart is fulfilled to the upside for a correction to occur. In addition, the index made a new 14-week intra-week low, meaning that the supports built during that time have begun to break.
The DOW did create a "mixed bag" of technical signals given that the "coil" formation was broken to the upside on Monday and to the downside on Thursday and neither break was confirmed, further confusing the chart traders as to what will happen this week. By the same token, the failure to confirm Thursday's break of the coil to the downside on Friday did not come as a surprise given that JPM and C reported better than expected earnings and that was likely the reason no follow through to the coil break was seen. On a negative note for the bulls though, the break of the coil formation was not confirmed but was not negated either, suggesting that the bears still have a slight edge that will not be negated unless further positive earnings reports come out.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor resistance at 18315 and decent and well as pivotal at 18399.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor support at 18052, minor to decent at the 18000 demilitarized zone (17970-18030) and pivotal at 17959. Below that level, there is no support until minor to perhaps decent support between 17713 and 17733.
It is evident by the new 14-week low generated this past week that the bears now have a decided edge over the bulls in the DOW. By the same token, the technical (chart) edge the bears have will not be enough to overcome fundamentally positive earnings, meaning that this coming week earnings will still be the primary driver.
The DOW has one third of its companies reporting this week (AXP, GE, GS, IBM, INTC, JNJ, MCD, TRV, VZ and UNH) and how those reports come out will likely help the traders choose a direction for the week. IBM and GS come out Monday evening and Tuesday mornings and will likely be the most important of the DOW reports this week, meaning that by Tuesday afternoon the traders may have made some decisions.
In general, forecasts in the DOW for the 3rd quarter are expected to be lower, which means that the leaning-to-the-downside charts do reflect what the traders are thinking.
Probabilities favor the bears in the DOW.
SPX Friday closing price - 2133
The SPX generated a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's high and then closing below last week's low. In addition, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 2114 will be seen this week.
The SPX did break to the downside out of the coil formation and in the process gave a sell signal, having generated the lowest daily close in 18 trading days. By the same token, the breakdown out of the coil formation was not confirmed on Friday when the bulls were able to keep the index from giving a sell and failure signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed above the most recent low weekly close at 2127 and above the previous all-time high weekly close at 2126 from July of last year. The lack of confirmation was likely due to the positive earnings reports on index stocks (C, JPM and WFC).
On a negative note though, the positive earnings reports in the SPX did not turn the weeks' downtrend around, having generated an unchanged close on Friday even though at one point during the day the index was up at much as 16 points. The inability of the bulls to maintain the early morning rally after the earnings reports came out, suggests that the selling interest is strong in spite of any fundamental earnings positives that may come out.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows minor resistance between 2151 and 2153 and decent as well as pivotal at 2169.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows minor to decent support at 2119 and pivotal at 2114. Below that level there is no intra-week support until minor support is reached at 2074. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, there is minor support at 2109 and minor to decent at the 2100 demilitarized zone (2097-2103).
The SPX will be getting additional and important earnings report at the beginning of the week with BAC reporting on Monday morning and GS on Tuesday morning. If those reports do not generate a positive reversal, the index may end up giving the kind of sell signals this week that would generate a downtrend of some consequence.
In looking at the daily closing chart of the SPX, it does show that any daily close above 2147 this week would likely generate additional upside. By the same token, any daily close below 2125 would be considered a new sell signal and likely cause strong selling to appear.
Probabilities favor the bears in the SPX.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5292
The NASDAQ generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and closing below the previous week's low and on the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5169 will be seen this week. The negative reversal was extra negative because a confirmed double top was created on the daily chart, having seen 5342 on September 22nd and 5340 on Monday, followed by 3 red daily closes immediately thereafter. The double top will also be created on the weekly chart if the index goes below last week's low this coming week.
The NASDAQ did generate a small failure signal, having closed on Friday below a previous but minor all-time high daily close at 5249. Nonetheless, the more important previous all-time high at 5210 from July of last year was not broken, having closed on Friday at 5214, suggesting that the traders are still waiting for another reason or catalyst to take the index down further.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ will show minor to perhaps decent resistance between 5275 and 5284 and major at 5342/5340.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ will show minor support and 5189 and minor to perhaps decent support at 5169. Below that level, there is decent support at 5097 and then nothing until the 5000 level is reached.
The NASDAQ is not likely to be the index that the traders pay most attention to this week, given that the 3 main stocks in the index (AMZN, AAPL and GOOGL) do not report earnings until the following week. By the same token, NFLX does report Monday afternoon and that could give the traders some direction, at least for the week.
The keys to the week in the NASDAQ are likely to be the 5287 level as resistance and the 5169 level as support. Whichever of those 2 levels get broken, the bulls or the bears will get the edge. With the index closing at 5214 and being 73 away from resistance and only 47 points from support, it is evident that the bears have the edge.
Probabilities favor the bears in the NASDAQ.
The week turned out to be a negative one for the bulls, given that on Monday the bulls had a strong edge and trading extremely close to breakout points but were unable to generate the break and then giving up all the gains to make new 14 week lows in the DOW and SPX and new 4-week lows in the NAZ.
The beginning of the earnings quarter started on Friday with C, JPM, and WFC reporting better than expected earnings but those earnings were not sufficient to turn the week's downtrend around, suggesting that the bears now have the edge and that the bulls will require additional and probably stronger positive earnings reports than already seen to give the edge back to the bulls. This week there are 17 important companies reporting earnings (BAC, IBM, NFLX, GS, JNJ, INTC, UNH, YHOO, HAL, AXP, EBAY, TRV, VZ, MSFT, GE, HON and MCD) and direction could be dependent on how those reports come out. By the same token, the 3 most important ones (IBM, NFLX, and GS) come out by Tuesday morning and the traders are likely to go in the direction those companies suggest the economy is heading. As far as economic reports, there are none this week that are likely catalytic.
Charts are leaning to the downside and that means the onus is on the shoulders of the bulls to prove things are "better than expected". With outside influences such as the looming election and the "inching along" economy that is not supportive to the present prices, the bears seem to have the edge, not only for this week but for the next 4-6 weeks.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The indexes gave clear signs this past week that an October seasonal correction may have started. If that is the case, short positions should continue to be instituted. By the same token, many stocks are already far below desired entry points and chasing is not a good option. As such, there is only 1 sell mention given this week in a stock that still shows a good risk/reward ratio.
There is also I purchase mention in a stock that is not likely to be index sensitive and that shows a positive looking chart and that is likely to be at a desired entry point this week.
SALES
AAPL Friday Closing Price - 117.63
AAPL broke out of a bullish flag this past week that offers a 125.15 objective but the breakout needs to be questioned since the main reason the stock rallied was because of the major recall that its competitor (Samsung) had to do because of the exploding batteries in the Samsung 7 phone.
It was previously expected that AAPL would get up to the $120 demilitarized zone but that rally had begun to wane because of the weakness being seen in the index market. Nonetheless, with the news, it is now "likely" that the stock will reach that resistance level and because of the longer term chart perspective and probabilities of the index market heading lower, sales should be considered at that desired entry point (or higher is available).
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, AAPL shows minor to perhaps decent resistance between 119.70 and 120.30 and then nothing until decent resistance at 123.82.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, AAPL shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 115.72, very minor at 112.44 and decent as well as mid-term pivotal at 111.55.
The longer term chart of AAPL suggests that a drop back down to at least 102.52 or perhaps as low as 95.12 will occur if and when the 123.82 level is not broken. The fundamental picture is slightly muddled right now with the problems Samsung is having, making the probability rating lower. Nonetheless, from a purely chart perspective, and considering what the indexes are likely to do, this is a trade that needs to be considered, especially since this stock is nearing a resistance level, not already far away from one.
Sales of AAPL above 119.70 and using a stop loss at 123.92 and having an objective of 100.00 will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). Rating would be a 4 if the Samsung problem was not happening.
PURCHASES
XON Friday Closing Price - 26.68
XON is in the Bio-Pharma industry and producing gene and cell therapies for combating cancer that seems to have promise. The stock was brought to my attention by someone that wanted a chart evaluation done and in doing that, I saw a stock that is attractively priced and with very clear support and resistance levels, as well as upside objectives that offer a good risk/reward ratio.
XON has been in a sideways trading range between 22.81 and 31.36 for the past 5 months as the traders await results on its Clinical Trials but is on a slight uptrend since January, with the chart suggesting a breakout above resistance is more likely that a breakdown below support.
XON this past week made a new 19-week high but the bulls were not able to hold the gains and a negative reversal occurred, with the stock closing below the previous week's low and suggesting further downside below last week's low at 26.42 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the 14% fall in price seen this week was not based on news but on chart action, which in turn puts the stock down to levels of support where a purchase makes sense.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, XON shows minor to perhaps decent resistance between 28.30 and 28.55 and decent as well as pivotal between 30.56 and 30.78. Above that level, there is minor resistance at 31.58 and then nothing until 36.88.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, XON shows minor to perhaps decent support between 25.04 and 25.09 and then minor to decent support, as well as short-term pivotal, at 24.30. That support is further strengthened by the 2 point trend line (currently at 24.40) that started with the 18.52 low seen on January 14th and the 22.88 low seen on July 19th.
XON has been building a triangle formation over the past 9 months with the triangle side being the uptrend that presently connects at 24.40 and the base of the triangle being the weekly closes at the $30 demilitarized zone seen during the same period of time. A breakout of the triangle formation offers a 35.72 objective. By the same token, given that above 31.35 there is no resistance until 36.88 is reached, it is likely that will be the objective if the triangle formation is broken.
It is also important to note that on a weekly closing basis, a close below 25.33 would be a sell signal, suggesting that the stock is unlikely to get below that level as buying interest will likely occur if reached.
Purchases of XON below 26.42 and using a stop loss at 24.20 and having a 36.88 objective will offer a 4-7-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ADSK generated follow through to the downside after the previous week's negative reversal. In addition, a sell signal was given on the daily closing chart, having closed below the previous 3-week low daily close and also closing in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 68.40 will be seen. On a small positive note though, the bulls were able to prevent a failure to follow through signal being given when the stock closed above the previous high weekly close at 68.87, meaning that a top has not yet been confirmed to this rally. Minor intra-week support is found at 66.76 and decent as well as mid-term pivotal at 65.06. Minor intra-week resistance is found at 71.23, decent at 72.80 and strong at the all-time high at 73.40. On a daily closing basis, short-term pivotal resistance is found at 71.08. Probabilities favor the bears this week for an intra-week drop down to at least 66.76 but thereafter direction will likely be decided by what the indexes do. ARNA had a disappointing week for the bulls, having negated the recent upside breakout with a close on Friday below 1.74 (recent weekly close breakout point). The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.55 is expected to be seen. Short-term pivotal intra-week support is found at 1.48 then nothing until the 1.30-1.36 level is reached. By the same token, if 1.48 is seen again, a triple low will have been created, suggesting it would be broken at some time in the near future even if a bounce off of it occurs. On a weekly closing basis, support is found at 1.53 and at 1.48 and having closed at 1.55 on Friday, it means that the bulls need to generate a green close or at worst keep next week's close no more than 2 points lower, which in turn means this coming week is pivotal. Intra-week resistance is once again found at 1.70, at 1.73, and 1.77 and at 1.82. On a daily closing basis though, resistance is pivotal at the 200-day MA, currently at 1.70. The failure signal given this week is strongly disappointing and suggests that the bears may be back in control. Probabilities favor the bears. COF generated a red weekly close, making the previous weeks close at 73.05 in a successful retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 72.75. One "big" additional negative is that the stock gave a failure to follow through on the bullish flag formation that had been broken the previous week, having closed on Friday below the top of the flag at 71.83 (using the weekly closing chart). The failure signal suggests that at the very least the bottom of the flag (69.49 on an intra-week basis) will be broken by the same amount it was broken to the upside (72.77-74.07 = $1.30), giving a minimum downside objective of 68.19. Intra-week support is found at 69.69 and 69.49 and then on a daily closing basis, pivotal at the 200-day MA, currently at 68.35, which by the way fits in with the objective of the failure of the flag. Intra-week resistance is minor at 72.20 and decent at 72.77. Decent as well as pivotal resistance is now found at 74.07. Probabilities favor the bears but I do need to say that based on the short-term chart, consideration should be given to covering the short positions on a drop down to 68.35 as the probabilities would favor a bounce of some consequence (probably up to 72.77) thereafter. ENG technically generated a negative reversal week, having gone above and below the previous week's high by 1 point and closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.44 will be seen this week. On a positive note, the bulls were still able to close the stock above the 200-week MA, currently at 1.44, and that makes 8 weeks in a row of closes above the line, meaning the bulls are still in control. Intra-week support is found at 1.44 and at 1.40 and then nothing until the important and likely mid-term pivotal support at 1.28 is reached. Minor to perhaps decent intra-week resistance is found at 1.60 and then decent at 1.73. Probabilities seem to favor the bears this week with a decent chance of the bears getting down to 1.28 either this week or in the next couple of weeks. A retest of that important support is likely, especially if the index market is in a corrective phase. This would mean that the recent uptrend would stall for a few weeks before new buying interest would be seen. FCEL confirmed the failure to follow through signal given the previous week, having generated another red close as well giving a sell signal on the daily closing chart with a new 6+ month daily closing low. The stock closed on the lows of the day and further downside below last week's low at 4.95 is expected to be seen. Like the COF chart above, the failure to follow through signal suggests that the same amount (7 points) seen above the breakout at 5.60 will be seen below the support at 4.88 (suggesting that 4.81 will be seen this week). On a daily closing basis, minor to perhaps decent support is found at 4.92 and decent to strong as well as pivotal at 4.70. Short-term pivotal intra-week resistance is found at 5.40, minor to perhaps decent at 5.50 as well as at 5.60 and stronger at 5.67. Probabilities favor the bears this week. FSLR generated a green weekly close, making last week's close at 37.23 into the required/needed successful retest of the multi-year weekly closing low at 34.82. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 39.95 is expected to be seen. It is likely the resistance at the $40 demilitarized zone and up to 40.72 remains strong enough to hold the rallies down but having generated a successful retest of the lows the door is now open for a failure to follow through to occur with a weekly close above 40.72. Minor to decent intra-week support is found between 37.23 and 37.47 and stronger between 36.72 and 36.83. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but on a limited basis since closing above 40.72 is not a viable probability for the bulls until after the earnings report comes out on Thursday October 27th. GOOGL made a new all-time intra-week high above the previous one at 819.06 but failed to generate a new daily and weekly closing high and then closing near the lows of the week, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 798.62 will be seen this week. If that does occur, a double top on the intra-week chart will occur, likely suggesting that a top to this rally will have been found. Minor intra-week support is found at 798.62, at 796.23/796.62, a bit stronger at 786.33 and mid-term pivotal at 783.50. Minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 810.39, a bit stronger at 813.88 and decent to strong, as well as longer term pivotal at 819.06/819.86. Probabilities favor the bears this week but it needs to be mentioned that option expiration will occur on Friday and there is a good probability that the $800 put options will expire around that price, meaning that if the stock drops below $790 early in the week, taking profits should be considered. GS made a new 9-month intra-week high this past week and closed the 172.92 gap that was created on January 5th of this year. Nonetheless, the closed gap was a 3rd gap, meaning that there is no magnet to closing the runaway gap up at 177.50-180.03. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above 172.92 will likely be seen. Then again, the stock closed at the 200-week MA, currently at 170.45, meaning that if the stock closes in the red next Friday, it will be seen as a successful retest of the line and that would be a negative for the stock. The company reports earnings on Tuesday morning and that will likely be a catalyst for what the stock does thereafter. Probabilities favor the bulls for Monday's action but after that it will all depend on how the earnings reports is evaluated. Intra-week support is pivotal at 165.51, minor at 164.50 and then nothing until 160.00 demilitarized zone is reached. Longer term pivotal support is found at 157.80, which does include the 200-day MA, currently at 158.35. Probabilities favor the bears simply because the bulls have not yet been able to break the downtrend, with the stock still below the 200-week MA. In addition, the indexes are showing high probabilities of being in a correction, and it is highly unlikely the stock will be able to "buck the trend in the market". HON bulls were able to stop the fall seen the previous week off of the lowered sales projections, having generated a double low on the daily chart with Tuesday's low at 105.26 and the previous Friday's low at 105.25. Off of the double low, the bulls were able to generate 4.4% rally and get into the gap between 115.00 and 107.96 with a rally up to 110.07. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above 110.07 is expected to be seen. By the same token, it does need to be mentioned that last week's trading range was more technical than anything, given the low of the week was at the 100-week MA and the high of the week was at the 50-week MA and there were not previous resistance levels built in to that range to prevent the traders from rallying the stock once a support level (though iffy at best) was built. Nonetheless, even if the stock goes higher this week, it will start facing some tough resistance levels, starting with the previous 7-month daily closing low at 111.46 that when broken brought about strong selling, and that is also further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 111.65. As such, consideration should be given to adding shorts if that area is reached. By the same token, the company reports earnings on Friday morning and if the outlook mentioned by the CEO the previous week is confirmed, the stock should renew the downtrend with the $100-$101 level as a viable objective. KGC did not follow through to the previous week's strong fall and close on the lows of the week, having generated an inside week and a green close. Nonetheless, the green weekly close was only by 10 points and the stock did close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 3.51 will be seen this week, meaning that the stock remains under bear control. By the same token, the green weekly close did open the door for a successful retest of the 7-month weekly closing high at 3.57 that will be confirmed as successful if another green weekly close occurs next Friday. Minor but likely short-term pivotal support is found at 3.42 and then nothing until the 3.00 level, meaning that if the bears can make a new 6-month low this week that the selling interest will spike up again. Minor intra-week resistance is found at 3.86 and then decent as well as pivotal, especially on a daily and weekly closing basis, between 4.00 and 4.15. Probabilities favor the bears. MT generated a small negative reversal week, having made a new 9-week high but then closing in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 6.08 will be seen this week. By the same token, no resistance or support levels were broken, meaning that the reversal week was not indicative. Minor intra-week support is found at 6.08, a bit stronger between 5.89 and 5.99 and then minor to perhaps decent at 5.79. Resistance is found at 6.50 and pivotal at 6.59. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but the overall the chart slightly leans to the upside for the longer term. SINA generated an uneventful week with no support or resistance levels broken. Nonetheless and in spite of the green weekly close, the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 73.42 will be seen this week. Very minor intra-week support is found at 74.08, a bit stronger at 73.42 and decent as well as likely pivotal at 72.42. Intra-week resistance is found at 78.47 and decent at 80.42. The chart now looks fulfilled and it favors the bears.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .416 (new price 5.00). 2) FCEL - Purchased at 5.27. Stop loss now at 4.65. Stock closed on Friday at 5.00. 3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.47. 4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.55. 5) MT - Averaged long at 5.57 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.23. Stock closed on Friday at 6.21. 6) FSLR - Averaged long at 44.87 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 33.64. Stock closed on Friday at 39.47. 7) CLB - Covered shorts at 114.45. Shorted at 112.19. Loss on the trade of $226 per 100 shares minus commissions. 8) GS - Averaged short at 167.61 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 170.52. 9) HON - Averaged short at 117.09. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 109.00. 10) COF - Averaged short at 71.656 (3 mentions). Stop loss at 74.35. Stock closed on Friday at 71.53. 11) SINA - Averaged short at 76.855. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 75.29. 12) GOOGL - Purchased 800 October 21st Put option at $3.10. Averaged at 6.80. Option closed at 4.30 on Friday. 13) ADSK - Averaged short at 70.96 (2 mentions). No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 69.46.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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