DOW Friday closing price - 18847

The DOW rallied 990 points this past week off of the Trump election win and made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high. The index closed on the highs of the week suggesting further upside above last week's high at 18873 will be seen this week.

The DOW took the leadership of the market in an impressive way, considering that neither of the other 2 indexes made new all-time highs. "Taking leadership of the market" is not considered a long-term bullish sign, inasmuch as the DOW is made up of only 30 stocks that are considered established stalwarts that represent safety and not speculation. Such a statement suggests that traders are expecting the market to react positively to the changes at first but that longer term they represent high risk.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW shows no resistance whatsoever other that psychological resistance at the 19000 demilitarized zone.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the index now shows very minor support at 18466 and then minor as well as possibly short-term pivotal at 18295. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, support is minor to decent at the previous all-time high at 18636.

The chart picture of the DOW is strongly bullish as the 19000 level will beckon strongly and it is unlikely that anything negatively fundamental will happen this week to derail the magnetism of that level, especially considering that a rally up to 19000 only requires a .08% rally above Friday's close. By the same token, once the index reaches 19000 the technical aspect of the market will likely take over again, suggesting that until the next round of important economic reports at the beginning of December that the index will trade perhaps as high as 19300 (general resistance) and perhaps as low as 18700 (general and chart support).

The probabilities favor the bulls in the DOW this week but given the almost 1000 point trading range seen last week, it is possible and perhaps even likely that Friday's close at 18847 will turn out to be the mid-point of this week's trading range, meaning a high of 19060 and a low of 18636 could be seen.

SPX Friday closing price - 2164

The SPX rallied 5.4% above last week's low off of the positive reaction to the Trump election win but the index failed to make a new intra-week or weekly close all-time high (like the DOW) having fallen short of it by 11 points intra-week (2182 to 2193) and by 20 points on a weekly closing basis (2164 to 2184). In addition, the bulls were not even able to generate a buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having fallen short by 4 points of the previous weekly closing high of consequence at 2168 seen in September, suggesting that the Trump win was more about change of leadership in the market than it was about a future bullish outlook.

The SPX did close in the upper half of the weekly trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2182 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the index underperformed the DOW last week, having rallied only 5.4% against 6.3% and if that continues this week by the same percentage and the DOW only gets up to the 19000-19060 level, it would mean the SPX would fall short again of making a new all-time intra-week high generating a rally back up to 2192.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows minor resistance at 2182 and minor to perhaps decent at 2187. Decent resistance is found at the all-time high at 2193.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows minor but possibly short-term pivotal support at 2147, minor at 2141, minor to decent between 2114 and 2119 and decent as well as strongly pivotal at 2083.

The SPX did get 2 additional chart boosts this past week (in addition to the positive Trump win buying), having gotten down to the 200-day MA at 2083 that had not been broken since March (except for 1 time for 1 day in June) and with the Banks stocks generating strong rallies due to the possible deregulation of the industry under the new administration. The failure to make a new all-time high with those 3 strong positives does bring into question the strength the bulls may have at this time and does suggest that this coming week is pivotal for the index.

The bulls in the SPX are committed to making a new all-time high this coming week as the high probability of an interest rate hike in December (now at 82%) will begin to work against the index if they do not take advantage of the momentum seen this past week.

Keep in mind that the SPX is presently considered a confirmer but not a leader, meaning that during the last 8 years it has been the index that has confirmed or negated what the leading index has done (up until recently mostly the NASDAQ). With the DOW having made a new all-time high but the NAZ lagging strongly behind this past week, the traders will look to the SPX to decide how much the new highs in the DOW really means for the future.

Probabilities in the SPX "slightly favor" the bulls this week. Nonetheless, the index has to rally an additional 1.2% in value from Friday's close just to get back up to the all-time high at 2193. The big question is whether the bullish reaction to the election will carry the index that high this week. It could end up being an important signal for the traders that are looking for any signs of what to expect in the near future, at least until Trump takes office in January.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5237

The NASDAQ rallied off of the Trump win but the reaction was not as positive for the index as it was for the DOW (rallied 3.7% compared to 5.1% based on weekly closes), given that the Tech Industry was negatively affected by the election (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, FB and NFLX all generated red weekly closes). Nonetheless, the index was still able to rally to close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5302 is expected to be seen.

The NASDAQ seems to have lost its leadership in the market and that does not bode well for the future, especially considering that the all-time high at 5342 already represents not only a double top to the index but also a general resistance level (300 points above 5000) that seems highly unlikely to be broken with money now shying away from speculative stocks and into the safety of the Blue Chip stocks.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ now shows minor resistance at 5302, minor to perhaps decent at 5311 and strong at the double top at 5342/5340.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ will now show very minor support at 5169, minor at 5143, minor to decent at 5097 and decent and short-term pivotal at 5034.

The NASDAQ struggled mightily after the election, given that all the "pet" stocks suffered losses this past week and closed red on Friday while other stocks in the index rallied based on the change of industry emphasis. That dichotomy will once again dominate the trading in the indexes this week.

The NASDAQ does have a technical chart point that could be decisive, inasmuch as there is an open gap to the downside between 5087 and 5122 that will be a magnet unless the bulls can generate a new gap to the upside, which in turn would be considered a runaway gap that would give the bulls new and needed ammunition. The index did close on the highs of the day on Friday, meaning that a gap to the upside could be created on Monday, which in turn would give the bulls the tools to attempt to take the index to new highs. If that does occur, the resistance at 5311 would become strongly pivotal.

It is evident that the NASDAQ will once again be the index the traders pay attention to, given that it was the index most negatively affected by the election. If the bulls can turn the negatives into positives, there is little to stop the market from heading substantially higher.

Probabilities are slightly favoring the bulls in the NASDAQ but it is evident this coming week will be short-term pivotal as any failure to make a new all-time high would likely give the bears the ammunition they need to make a short-term statement of what to expect for the next 2 months.

The surprising election result created a topsy-turvy market where traders scrambled to decide what industries and sectors will benefit from a Trump win and which ones won't. In general though, the market reacted positively as many of the constraints that have prevented rampant speculation in the market are likely to be lifted under Trump's focus on growing the economy.

Defense, Health Care, Bio-Pharma and in a smaller way Commodities such as Copper (due to infrastructure spending expected) roared, while Technology and environment friendly companies fell given the change of focus and support likely to be seen under a Trump presidency.

More upside is expected to be seen as follow through to the initial reaction is likely to occur this week and fulfill some of the potential upside objectives imagined. Nonetheless, it is all speculative fever on "what is likely to occur" and since nothing has been decided yet, and won't be decided for another 2 months, the probabilities favor the market getting back to "trading" technically as it is the only thing that can still be relied on until something more "concrete" occurs. As such, this coming week may once again experience some 2-way trading as traders look to decipher where selling and buying interest in these industries are located.

There are quite a few economic "B" kind of reports due out this week, such as Retail Sales and inflation figures but they are not likely to have any effect on the market since new expectations will be based on what is to happen and not what has happened up until now.