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Issue #505 
Dec, 4 2016 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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| New Highs Made, DOW on a run to 20,000?
DOW Friday closing price - 19170
The DOW extended its gains once again, having made another all-time intra-week and weekly closing high this past week. The index has now rallied 7% above the low made just prior to the election and having closed in the upper side of the week's trading range, further upside above last week's high at 19225 is expected to be seen.
The DOW has been "leading the parade" and that is not a strong long-term positive as the index is considered the "conservative" index due to the low speculative nature of Blue Chip stocks. In fact, the DOW was the only index extending the uptrend in any meaningful way, given that the SPX only extended the rally by 1 point and the NASDAQ only by 7 points and then both reversed to close in the red and on the lows of the week.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW has no resistance other than "general" resistance around 19300, which is 300 points above the 19,000 level.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW shows very minor support at 18806 and then nothing until minor again at 18468. Below that level, there is minor to perhaps decent support between 18247 and 18295. On a daily closing basis though, some support will be found at the previous all-time daily closing high at 18636 (18576 on a weekly closing basis).
The probabilities do not favor much further upside in the DOW (perhaps up to the "general" resistance at 19300) given that the other 2 indexes are now favoring the downside, the Fed is due to raise interest rates in 10 days, and the last 2 years the index has generated a red December and a red January. In 2014, the index generated a negative reversal month, having gone above November's high and then dropping 6.6% from the highs and last year the index did not generate a reversal month but did drop 4.4% during the month from the high of the month. Based on the corrections seen the past 2 years, as well as the present high in place at 19225, the DOW could be looking at a drop down to 18376 (4.4%) or down to 17956 (6.6%) just for the month of December.
It is expected that the DOW will be going above last week's high this week but all eyes will be on the low of last week at 19062 as a break of that level will be a signal that the correction has started. This will be even truer if the index first goes above last week's high as under that scenario, a negative reversal will have occurred. It should be mentioned, that there is no support below 19062 until minor support is found at the previous all-time high at 18668 is reached, meaning that the 19062 is an important level of support this week that if broken would likely trigger a minimum objective of 18670-18700.
Probabilities slightly favor the bears in the DOW this week, at least as far as the weekly close is concerned.
SPX Friday closing price - 2191
The SPX generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high by 1 point (2214 vs previous week's high at 2213) and then turning around to close in the red and on the lows of the week, which does suggest further downside below last week's low at 2187 will be seen this week.
The SPX is facing a pivotal week given that the previous all-time high daily close is at 2190 and the previous all-time high weekly close at 2184 and both of those levels are likely to be seen this week at some point. In fact, a red close on Monday by more than 2 points would give a failure to follow through signal on the daily closing chart, which is turn would likely bring in further selling interest, especially considering the interest rate hike from the Fed due on December 13th which would likely decrease the profits of the banks.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows a double top resistance at 2213/2214. Above that level, there is no resistance except perhaps "general" resistance at 2230 (30 points above 2200).
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows very minor support at 2172 and at 2168, minor at 2160 and at 2157 and short-term pivotal at 2147. On a daily closing basis, support will be found at the previous all-time daily closing high at 2190 (2184 on a weekly closing basis).
The SPX now shows a double top at 2213/2214 on the daily chart and given that 2215 was an upside objective I gave on the August 7th Newsletter, based on the action seen in 2012 which was a year the seasonal July-August swoon did not occur (much like it did not occur this year), it is now a viable top to this rally, at least as far as a correction is concerned.
Chart-wise, the bulls in the SPX have a bit of a short-term problem since the negative reversal seen does give the bears an edge and given that there really isn't any support of consequence until 2147/2157 is reached, the index could give up 50% of the Trump rally before any new buying interest is seen. In addition and like the DOW, the last 2 years, the SPX has also generated 2 red Decembers with last year the index correcting 5.3% and in 2014 correcting 6%, meaning that if the index is to mimic either of those years, a drop down to 2096 (5.3%) or to 2081 (6%) could occur.
The big issue with the SPX is that the Trump rally has been "straight up" and as such, no supports were built. The first support at 2147 is from August and given that it was before the Trump win and a minor support to boot, there is no assurance that the traders will respect it at this time. With no support built, it is possible that the index could drop all the way down to the 2119/2116 level which represents stronger support, especially considering that 2126 was the previous all-time high weekly close seen in 2015.
The level to watch this week is the most recent all-time high daily close at 2190. If that level is broken this week, especially if the index closes below 2184 next Friday, it will be official that a correction like the one seen in 2014 or 2015 will be happening. Probabilities favor the bears.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5255
The NASDAQ generated a key reversal week, having made a new all-time high at 5403 and then closing below last week's low at 5334. In addition, the index also gave a failure to follow through signal on Friday, having closed convincingly below the previous all-time high weekly close from August at 5312, strongly suggesting that at the very least, a correction of consequence is occurring. The index closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 5238 is expected to be seen.
The NASDAQ finds itself only 1.2% (62 points) above the daily closing high before the Trump win was announced. With the index having had a 165 point trading range last week and having closed on the lows of the week, it is certainly possible and perhaps even probable that "all" of the Trump rally will evaporate, meaning that the bullish outlook for his Presidency, at least as far as the Tech Industry is concerned, may be a non-factor.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ will now show minor resistance at 5287 and at 5311, minor to decent at the previous all-time high at 5342 and decent as well as pivotal at 5403.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ will show minor support at 5216 and minor to perhaps decent between 5189 and 5197. Below that level, there is minor to perhaps decent support at 5169 and then nothing until decent support at 5097. Decent as well as pivotal support is found at 5037.
The NASDAQ has also seen corrections the last 2 Decembers, almost identical to the other indexes. In December of last year, the index fell 5.6% and in December of 2014 it fell 5.9%, and with the key reversal seen last week and an interest rate hike due in 9 days, it does suggest that the same kind of correction has started. A drop of 5.6% would offer a 5100 objective and a drop of 5.9% would offer a 5081 objective.
The NASDAQ is still showing an open gap between 5087 and 5122 that has now become a probable magnet given the failure signal given on Friday. With the December correction expected to take the index down somewhere between 5081 and 5100, it is now a decent possibility (if not probability) that a drop down to close the gap will occur. With the support at 5097 being a decent spike, the traders will likely be looking at that level as the target for December.
Probabilities favor the bears in the NASDAQ.
The Bull run (off of the Trump win) seems to have come to an end, at least as far as the "speculation" of what will happen. The leadership seen this past week by the Blue Chip stocks strongly suggests that traders are still bullish on the market for the long run but bearish for now, at least until Trump actually takes office in January. This is further borne out by the fact that the last 2 Decembers have been negative to the market and given the high prices that have been achieved over the past 5 weeks, it does suggest that some type of correction will occur.
The economic reports this past week continue to suggest the economy is moving forward but it also suggests that the Fed will raise interest rates on December 13th, which has to be considered a short-term negative that is not likely to be negated by "just speculation" as to what a Trump Presidency will accomplish for the market. Actual and expected events by the Trump administration will likely need to occur before additional buying is seen.
There are no economic reports of consequence due out this week and the OPEC nations have "already agreed" on production cuts that have given oil new support, meaning that there seems to be no catalysts on the horizon to give the bulls new ammunition. As such, the market is likely to act technically for the next 4-7 weeks (until Trump takes office) and the technical picture suggests a correction is the most likely scenario.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
It seems likely that the indexes are in for a December correction, much like was seen the past 2 years. Nonetheless, the longer term outlook is still bullish as the Trump Presidency suggests higher prices will be seen. As such, mentions this week will be split with the 2 purchase mentions from last week still viable but there are 3 short-term sell mentions included with 2 of them being in NASDAQ stocks, which seem to be the main index receiving sell interest.
SALES
NFLX Friday Closing Price - 120.81
NFLX closed on Friday 3% below the price it closed at the day before the election results came about and that is actually 8.4% "above" the low seen after the election results, meaning the stock has recuperated most of the losses seen. Nonetheless, it is evident that it is not thought/believed that the company will receive any benefits from the Trump win, at least not by the action seen.
In addition, NFLX recently tested the all-time high made in November 2015 at 133.27 with a rally up to 129.29 seen in October, which has set up what is considered a strong top formation given that in August 2015 the stock also saw a high of 129.29, meaning that there is now an established area between 129.29 and 133.27 that is considered "strong" resistance and from which a decent correction/profit taking binge could occur, likely to the $97-$100 level.
NFLX generated a positive reversal week last week, having gone below the previous week's low and closing above the previous week's high and on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 120.98 will be seen. Nonetheless, given that the recent 129.29 high had not been retested successfully, it is likely this present rally will end up being that retest, which in turn suggests it is a good opportunity to short the stock.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, NFLX shows resistance at 122.18, which was the high/retest seen when the all-time high at 133.27 was made. Above that level, there is a recent high at 125.75 that should not be broken unless another rally up to 129.29 is to occur (unlikely). That 125.75 high will be used as the resistance level for the stop loss.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, NFLX shows minor to decent support at 113.95 and decent as well as short-term pivotal at 110.68. Below that level, there is no support until minor support is found at 104.96 and then nothing until the $100 level is reached.
NFLX has a major gap between 100.73 and 110.68 that previously was at 116.50 but the traders got "into the gap" on the drop seen after Trump was elected. It is likely that if the support at 110.68 is broken, that closure of the gap will become a magnet. It also needs to be mentioned that on the weekly chart, there is no intra-week support below 110.68 until 101.86 is reached, meaning that a break of 110.68 would have that as a minimum objective.
Last but not least, the 200-day MA is currently at 100.50 and if the stock shows weakness, testing of that line is likely to occur since it has only been tested once after it was broken in September and not tested since the bullish earnings report came out on October 17th, which is what pushed the stock up to 129.29.
Sales of NFLX above 122.10 and using a stop loss at 125.85 and having a downside objective of 100.50 will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
FB Friday Closing Price - 115.40
FB has dropped 7.3% in value since the election results came out but the stock was already under sell pressure before the Trump win was announced, given that the earnings report that came out on November 2nd had already generated a 10.7% drop in price, from 133.50 to 119.25.
On November 10th (2 days after the election result), FB broke below the 200-day MA, currently at 119.45, and since then the stock has been "straddling" the line, having closed above the line 8 times and below the line 8 times. Nonetheless, the sideways trading range the stock has seen the past 4 weeks is part of the bearish inverted flag formation that has been built, with the flagpole being the drop from 133.50 to the low seen on November 14th at 113.54 and the flag being the trading range seen the past 3 weeks with a high of 122.98. The objective of the flag if the bottom of the flag at 113.53 is broken would be 102.94, which is also where the 100-week MA is currently located.
It is interesting to note that since FB only started trading 4 years ago, the 200-week MA has not had a chance to become important. Nonetheless, the 100-week MA has already generated importance, given that the line was tested successfully in August 2015 and from which the uptrend resumed.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, FB shows minor resistance at 117.59 and then nothing until 120.10. Nonetheless, between 120.10 and 121.08 the resistance is decent and includes the 200-day MA, currently at 119.45, which is only decent resistance on a daily closing basis. Above that level, minor but likely pivotal resistance is found at 122.10 and then minor to decent but again short-term pivotal at 122.98.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, FB shows minor to decent support between 113.55 and 114.00 and then nothing until decent and pivotal support is found at 108.23. Below that level, there is minor support at 106.31 and at 104.40 and then nothing until 101.46, which is the objective of this trade.
FB generated a negative spike low on Thursday but did not see any follow through on Friday and did close in the green and in the upper half of the day's trading range, suggesting that further upside above Friday's high at 116.48 will be seen on Monday. The upside objective is likely to be at least a rally up to the 117.59 level but it could be as high as the 200-day MA at 119.45. The biggest problem with this trade is to find a good entry point for the short, which is from a minimum of 117.58 up to as high as 121.09.
The weakness seen in FB after the earnings report, followed up by additional weakness seen since the Trump election win, as well as the chart negativism of the inverted chart formation does suggest this is a viable short trade.
Sales of FB above 119.40 and using a stop loss at 122.35 and having a 100.50 objective will offer a 6-1 risk/reward ratio. Consideration can be given to selling the stock above 117.50 but the risk/reward ratio will be cut down to 3-1. In addition, a more secure stop loss can be placed at 123.35 (if sold above 119.40), which will lower the risk/reward ratio to 4-1.
My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
LVLT Friday Closing Price - 55.82
LVLT is a Tech company though not a NASDAQ stock that has not seen a major move due to the Trump win. The stock closed at 53.84 the day before the election results came out and closed on Friday only 3.6% higher. The stock did originally move higher due to the Trump win but it was likely due to the fact the stock was in an uptrend before the election results in which the stock had already rallied 23% from the October low at 44.01.
Nonetheless, LVLT had already gotten up to and slightly above the previous all-time high at 57.08 with a rally in July to 57.59 and from that high, a failure signal was given that took the stock down to the October low at 44.01, meaning the $57 level had already been established as a decent to strong resistance level. Right after the Trump win, the bulls attempted to make a new all-time high with a rally 2 weeks ago to 57.48 but the stock generated a red weekly close on Friday that included a drop of 5% intra-week, suggesting that the sell interest remains strong above $57.
LVLT closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 54.72 will be seen and if that does occur. The 57.48 high will become a confirmed double top (57.59/57.48 -56.90/56.79 on a weekly closing basis) that would likely bring strong selling pressure to the stock.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, LVLT will show decent resistance at 57.00 and strong at 57.48/57.59. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, resistance is decent at 56.15.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, LVLT shows minor support at 54.72 and minor to decent at 51.17 that is further strengthened by the 200-day MA, currently at 51.35. Below that level, there is abundant support around the $50 level that has been built over the past 2 years. None of the support is strong in nature but it is abundant. Further support is found around the $47 level.
The double top in LVLT is the basis for this mention and if it is confirmed, the probabilities would strongly favor the most recent support at 54.72 being broken and the $50 beckon like magnet.
Sales of LVLT above 56.14 (and up to 57.00) and using a stop loss at 57.35 and having a 50.00 objective will offer a better than 5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). The rating is slightly lower than the other 2 sell mentions simply because the stock is still in an uptrend and did react favorably (though slightly) to the Trump win.
PURCHASES
CLF Friday Closing Price - 9.91
CLF is an iron ore producer and supplier that got as high as $102 a share just 6 years ago but with commodities being out of fashion since 2009, the stock dropped as low as $1.20, a level seen at the beginning of this year. The mention being given today is the same as the one given last week since the desired entry point is still viable.
CLF has been on an uptrend for the past 10 months, having tested the all-time low successfully on 2 occasions (higher lows than the previous lows) as well as broken a previous high on 2 occasions as well. The stock spiked up this week and broke 2 previous highs, one of which was a 19-month high at 8.45 and the other was a 24-month high at 9.39, giving full notice that the bulls are now in control.
CLF closed in the upper half of the week's trading range and further upside above last week's high at 10.14 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the 200-week MA, currently at 11.45, is not likely to get broken the first time around, especially since there is also a previous intra-week resistance at that price from October 2014.
CLF is not a stock to be chased at this time so this mention is not likely for this week, but this chart has all the potential for being a breakout chart of consequence over the next year and as such, a stock that needs to be watched carefully and if the stock sees some weakness, down toward the desired entry point, it should be purchased.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, CLF shows no resistance until 11.70 is reached. Nonetheless, the $10 demilitarized zone could become resistance due to the psychological nature of it.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, CLF will show pivotal support at 7.33. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, the previous 19-month weekly closing high at 8.11.
CLF is now showing a breakaway gap between 6.33 and 6.63 and a runaway gap between 7.68 and 7.79. Considering that the 200-week MA is not likely to be broken the first time around and that the breakout level (as well as the gap area) is likely to be tested at some point over the next few weeks, the desired entry point will be between the 8.00 and 8.30 level, which based on the action this past week will not likely be seen this week.
As far as the upside objective of CLF, once the breakout above the 200-week MA is accomplished, the stock shows no resistance of consequence until the $24-$29 level is reached. Even so, if inflation does become a problem, ultimately the stock could be heading back to the $40 level, suggesting this trade could end up being a big winner, though a rally up to that level would likely take 8-12 months once the MA line is broken.
I am giving you all this chart information because consideration can be given to buying the stock now (not waiting for the short pullback that I expect to see after the 200-week MA is reached), given the potential upside objectives mentioned.
Purchases of CLF between 8.00 and 8.30 and using a stop loss at 6.63 and having a 3-6 month objective of $24 will offer a 10-1 risk/reward ratio. A purchase at Friday's close at 9.94 will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
CNX Friday Closing Price - 20.89
CNX is a natural gas and coal exploration company that got into a strong downtrend between June 2014 from a high of 48.30 to January 2016 when it reached a low 4.54. Nonetheless, this year (for the past 11 months) the stock has been on an uptrend, having seen a high of 20.66 2 weeks ago. This mention has changed after last week's action, meaning there is a new desired entry point and stop loss.
CNX closed on Friday above a major weekly closing low from November 2008 at 20.80, as well as getting up to the 2001 high at 21.24 with a 21.26 high seen last week, suggesting the stock could be in the process of negating the 17-months of trading on the negative side of $20 and ready to begin an stronger uptrend than what has been seen during this year, up from 4.54. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 21.26 is expected to be seen.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, CNX shows no resistance until 24.62 is reached. Nonetheless, that resistance is minor and old (from 2005). Above that level there is no intra-week resistance until 34.14 is reached. On a weekly closing basis though, resistance is minor to perhaps decent at 26.51, which does get strengthened by the 200-week MA, currently at 27.15.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, CNX now shows minor but likely short-term pivotal support at 19.07. Below that level there is minor to perhaps decent support at 17.86 and longer term pivotal at 17.13.
With CNX likely to be breaking out, the stock can be chased, especially given that the 19.07 low seen on Tuesday was a positive reversal day, suggesting that if the stock is heading higher that support level will not be broken.
Purchases on CNX between 20.28 and 20.56 and using a stop loss at 18.97 and having a 27.00 objective will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). The rating is now higher than it was last week, given that the stock has now broken out.
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Updates
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| Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted. Status of account for 2016, as of 11/1 Loss of $5411 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for November per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
FSLR (long) $35 AAPL (long) $487
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.
SINA $297 Total Profit for November, per 100 shares and after commissions $819 Closed out losing trades for November per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
GS (short) $551
COF (short) $164 GS (short) $63 XON (long) $72 XON (long) $18 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.
HON (short) $681 Total Loss for November, per 100 shares, including commissions $5111 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 11/30
CLB (long) $987
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
XON (long) $308
Total $1358 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 11/30
XON (long) $29
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
FSLR (long) $3051 Total $3159 Status of trades for month of November per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Loss of $6093
Status of account/portfolio for 2016, as of 11/30Loss of $16198 using 100 shares traded per mention.
ARNA made a new 4-week low and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.37 will be seen. Nonetheless, some buying interest was seen on Friday, given that the 1.37 low for the week was made at the beginning of the day and then a rally up to the high of the day at 1.46 occurred at mid-afternoon. This does suggest that the 1.35 low seen on November 3rd will not be broken easily, if broken at all. It is evident that between 1.30 and 1.36 there has been consistent buying interest, given that that area has been seen 6 times over the past 11-months and not broken. With no change of fundamentals having occurred, it is expected that this area of support will continue to hold up. Very minor resistance is found between 1.47 and 1.50 and then nothing until minor to decent as well as pivotal at 1.64. Probabilities favor the stock getting down to 1.35 and then turning around. Possible trading range for the week could be 1.35-1.50.
CLB generated a positive reversal week, having gone below last week's low and then closing above last week's high and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 117.43 will be seen this week. The reversal was more fundamental than technical, given that the lows of the week were set when it didn't seem that OPEC would agree to a production cut and the highs of the week were made when they did agree. The stock did make a new 14-week high and based on the probabilities of oil continuing higher, the stock should continue higher as well. On an intra-week basis, there is minor resistance at 118.87, a bit stronger between 120.34 and 120.72 and decent at 125.42. Chart suggests that a minimum of $120 will be seen with a decent possibility of getting up as high as $125. The stock gapped up this week between 107.34 and 110.00 and since the gap was news-based, it is unlikely to be closed unless the fundamentals change. Intra-week support (all minor) is found at 111.20, at 110.36 and at 109.11 and then minor to decent between 107.54 and 107.96. The stock closed near the lows of the day on Friday and the first course of action is likely to be to the downside, below Friday's low at 113.59. Downside target is likely to be 112.60, which is a level where consideration can be given to adding positions with a sensitive stop loss at 109.01. With a 125.00 target, such a trade would offer a 3.4-1 risk/reward ratio. Probabilities favor the bulls. ENG generated a green weekly close, making the previous week's close at 1.29 into a successful retest of the important and pivotal weekly close support at 1.31. Nonetheless, in spite of a spike intra-week rally to 1.52, the bulls were unable to even generate any kind of buy signal on the weekly closing chart, needing to close above 1.40 to generate it. By the same token, it seems that a low to this recent mini downtrend has been established at 1.20 (1.29/1.31 on a weekly closing basis) and though a fast and short-term drop back down to 1.28/1.29 is expected to be seen this week, if that occurs and the retest is successful, the bulls should be back trying to resume the previous uptrend. Important and pivotal daily close resistance is found at 1.40. A break of that level should be a sign that the bulls are back in control. Any weekly close above 1.48 should generate the kind of buying interest that would cause a new 21-month high to be made and the 1.88 resistance level to be targeted. FCEL made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing low on Friday and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.90 is expected to be seen. Though there are no previous levels of support that could be targeted, based on the previous 3-week drop from 5.35 to 2.70 (almost 50%), it could be surmised that a potential downside target is 1.70 (from the recent high at 3.35). The $2 level should become a short-term pivot point for the stock for the next few weeks with the probabilities favoring the stock to trade between 1.70 and 2.30. There is at this time no interest in purchasing this stock. FSLR generated an uneventful week, having traded above the previous week's high and above the previous week's low but not going high enough to accomplish generating any new buying interest. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 29.65 is expected to be seen this week. The recent low at 28.60 has not yet been tested on the weekly chart, suggesting that a drop below 29.65 might end being such an event. The rise in the price of oil could end up being the needed fundamental catalyst for a rally in the stock but that is yet to be a reality. Minor intra-week support is found at 29.65 and then nothing until 28.85. Short-term pivotal support is found at 28.60. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 31.47 and then again at 33.48. A daily close above 34.00 would suggest the bulls "have turned the corner". Probabilities still favor the bears but the fundamental picture at these prices slightly favors the bulls. MT continued what seems to be a consistent and inexorable climb toward the $10 level. The stock made a new 15-month high and once again closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 7.85 is expected to be seen. There is no resistance above until 9.24 is reached and that is a very minor high seen in December 2003, meaning it is not likely to be respected at this time (13 years later). More recently but still 15-months old, there is minor intra-week resistance at 9.70, which in conjunction with the psychological resistance at the $10 demilitarized zone has a bit of strength. Nonetheless, on an intra-week basis, there is no previous resistance of consequence until 11.95 is reached. Short-term pivotal intra-week support is found at 7.37, then minor at 6.90 and at 6.77. Longer-term pivotal support is found at 6.28, meaning that stop losses can now be raised to 6.18. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls, given that commodities are now back "in vogue" and that the stock has momentum and no resistance levels close-by. XON generated a negative week, the first in 4 weeks, in which a confirmed break of the 200-day MA, currently at 28.90, occurred. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 27.59 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock generated a bounce on Friday off of the 27.59 low and up to 29.00, suggesting there is buying interest of some consequence at 27.52, which is a major spike low made in September 2015 and from which a 7-week rally back up to 46.73 occurred, suggesting the bears will need some negative fundamental change to occur to break that support. Intra-week resistance will now be found between 30.15 and 30.78 that will likely require some additional "backing and filling" over a period of 2-4 weeks before any resumption of the uptrend could occur. It is important to note that below 27.52 there is no support at all until minor support at 26.71 is reached and on the weekly chart there is no support until 24.30, suggesting that a break of 27.52 would be a negative signal. The trading range for this coming week could be something like 27.52 to 30.15. Probabilities favor the bulls, though at some point during the week a drop down to 27.52 is likely to be seen.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .166 (new price 2.00). 2) CLB - Purchased at 101.89. Stop loss now at 103.78. Stock closed on Friday at 114.36. 3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.36. 4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.41. 5) MT - Purchased at 7.50. Averaged long at 6.244 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 6.18. Stock closed on Friday at 7.82. 6) FSLR - Averaged long at 41.758 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 30.15. 7) GS - Covered shorts at 215.35. Loss on the trade of $839 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 8) GS - Shorted at 218.40. Covered shorts at 218.89. Loss on the trade of $49 per 100 shares plus commissions. 9) XON - Averaged long at 27.71. Stop loss now at 27.42. Stock closed on Friday at 31.19. 10) XON - Purchased at 29.98. Liquidated at 29.40. Loss on the trade of $58 per 100 shares plus commissions. 11) XON - Purchased at 28.91. Liquidated at 28.87. Loss on the trade of $4 per 100 shares plus commissions.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
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