Issue #515
Feb 119, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Runaway Freight Train Runs Unobstructed. New All-Time Highs Made Again!

DOW Friday closing price - 20624

The DOW made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high and closed once again near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 20639 will be seen this week. The runaway freight train speed seems to be increasing, given that the previous week the index rally was 1% from weekly close to weekly close and last week it was 1.8%.

The DOW has now rallied 639 points above the 20,000 level and is close to reaching the rally-above-a-major-psychological-level target level seen the last 3 times the index broke above the 10,000 level, which is between 729 and 1365 points. Given that the index generated a 317 point rally last week (from low to high), it is likely that within 1 or 2 weeks the top to this rally will be reached and a correction occur.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW may show some "general" resistance around the 20,700, some psychological resistance at 21,000 and "general" again at 21,300.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor but likely pivotal support at the 20000 demilitarized zone (19970-20030). Below that, there is minor support at 19831 and minor to perhaps decent as well as pivotal at 19784. Further support is minor at 19748, minor at 19718 and minor to perhaps decent as well as short-term pivotal at 19677.

The DOW gapped up this past week between 20298 and 20322 and this is not an index that has shown any history of leaving gaps open, meaning that the 20299 level (which is also now "general" support) is likely to start becoming a magnet. By the same token, the increase in rally speed is likely to carry the index higher up to whatever target the rally high has, before it becomes a magnet.

There are no economic reports scheduled for this week that could be a catalyst that might derail the DOW rally. As such, the probabilities favor further upside until at least the 20,700 level. Nonetheless, announcement of tax cut program that Trump has stated will be delivered within "a couple of weeks" is likely to be such a catalyst, given that "buying the anticipation and selling the fact" adage will probably be effective this time. Simply stated, once Trump has unveiled the program, the traders are likely to turn around and key on taking profits.

Probabilities once again favor the bulls in the DOW this week.

SPX Friday closing price - 2351

The SPX made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2351 will be seen this week. The ability of the bulls to get above the daily chart flag objective at 2328 suggests that the flag objective on the weekly chart at 2427 will now be the target.

The 2427 target in the SPX can be considered viable as it would suggest the DOW would get up to 21,304 which fits in with what happened the first time that index got above 10,000, a 1365 point rally above that psychological level.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows no previous resistance or even a general or psychological resistance area nearby.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX will now show minor but pivotal support at 2285. Below that level, minor support is found at 2271 and minor to perhaps decent but also short-term pivotal at 2267. On a daily closing basis though, important support will be found at 2298 (top of the flag).

With absolutely no resistance above, the SPX should continue rallying unabated this coming week as long as no unexpected negative comes out. The index moved up 1.5% this past week and if that is duplicated it will likely get up to the 2386 level, which would leave the index only 40 points from its flag objective at 2427, which can possibly be reached the following week.

Like the DOW, the SPX also gapped up last week between 2319 and 2321, suggesting that once the rally finds a top that the gap will be targeted soon thereafter. Nonetheless, for this coming week the probabilities continue to favor the bulls.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5838

The NASDAQ made yet another new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high last week and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5838 will be seen this week.

The NASDAQ now finds itself only 162 points from the next psychological resistance at 6000 and given that it rallied 95 points last week, it is likely that no later than the following week that level will be reached.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ has no resistance close by. Psychological resistance is likely to be found at the 6000 level.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ now shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 5649. Below that level, there is very minor support at 5616 and minor to perhaps decent but short-term pivotal at 5576.

The NASDAQ is now likely to be the index the traders will watch closely for the next couple of weeks, given that it is the only index that has any kind of resistance (psychological in this case) nearby. As such, it will give the bears a level where they can gather and attempt to push back/stop this runaway freight train.

Like with the other indexes, the NASDAQ also gapped on Monday between 5743 and 5748 and that gap will likely be targeted for closure once a top to this rally is found. The 5700 area will likely become support given that it is a "general" support area to begin with. Probabilities favor the bulls once again this week.


The "runaway freight train" continued to gather momentum, given that all the indexes not only extended their recent rallies but expanded on them, having generated a bigger percentage rally this past week than the previous one.

The probabilities of a top to this rally being found soon have increased as the market is nearing an exhaustion phase that has not yet been fed with any tangible and confirmed expansion of our economic growth. Simply speaking, this is still just speculation. In addition, history has given a clue as to how much of a rally can be expected when a major psychological level has been broken (such as the DOW history at 10,000) and those historic rally levels are now in view, meaning that soon the tide will begin turning toward a correction rather than further upside. As it is, the SPX has not seen a 1% correction since November, meaning that the market is experiencing an anomaly that is not likely to continue for long.

There are no economic reports of consequence due out this coming week, meaning that there are no scheduled events that could become a negative catalyst. Nonetheless, much of the rally has been due to the expectation of a Tax cut as that has been a strong market boost in the past. Nonetheless, the old adage about "buy the anticipation and sell the fact" is likely to be as true now as it has been in the past, meaning that once Trump announces what the Tax cut plan will be, it is likely that immediately thereafter the market will correct. On February 9th, Trump announced "Big League Tax Reform Details coming in a matter of weeks". As such, it is possible that within the next week or two at most it will be announced.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The indexes are nearing upside objectives and when reached the market is likely to experience a correction of some consequence, especially considering that there has not been any pullback (not even 2%) for the last 3 months. The only question being is "how soon will those objectives be reached? Will it be this week or next, or the one after?" Nonetheless, looking to be a "new" purchaser of stocks at this time seems to be a little too late, meaning that starting to consider or put on "some" short positions seems to make sense.

There is only one short mention this week as it is in a stock that I have been following for the past 6 weeks and the stock is now reaching a level of resistance that is unlikely to be broken without fundamental help.

SALES

CBRL Friday Closing Price - 168.69

CBRL represents a restaurant chain in the food industry that is unlikely to see any special buying or selling interest under the Trump Administration. As such, it is a viable stock to consider a short position in, especially since the company reports earnings on Tuesday morning and it will not be facing any fundamental event thereafter that could be catalytic to the price.

CBRL had been in a 5-year uptrend that started in September 2011 and that took the stock from a weekly closing price at 37.99 to weekly closing price at 171.13, a high weekly close seen in June of last year. Since then, the stock has built a double top with a weekly closing high at 171.24 seen in December and now, after a 7-week correction back down to 155.90 and a rally last week back up to 169.07, the traders are facing a pivotal earnings report that could either generate new buying interest and resumption of the uptrend or a successful retest of the double top and a mid-term downtrend.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, CBRL shows minor resistance between 169.21 and 169.75, decent between 172.33 and 172.89 and strong at the all-time high at 175.04. On a weekly closing basis though, the stock shows strong to perhaps major resistance at 171.13/171.24.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, CBRL shows minor to perhaps decent support at 166.02, minor at 165.14, very minor at 163.62 and then nothing until the $160 demilitarized zone. Below that level, there is pivotal intra-week support at 155.90 and then mostly open air until the $147-$150 level. On a weekly closing basis, there is decent support between 154.39 and 156.41.

CBRL has more than quadrupled in price over the past 5 years, meaning that common sense would suggest that some kind of downtrend might start, especially considering that the indexes are likely to find a top (at least a temporary one) sometime in the next 1-3 weeks and that the stock is showing a bearish double top. By the same token, the stock has been on a long term uptrend and the recent double top and correction seen might just be a pause to get rid of the long term overbought condition. It is possible and perhaps even likely that the earnings report on Tuesday morning will clear up the chart picture.

As far as potential downside targets, CBRL has been above the 200-week MA since November 2009 and only once (in 2011) was the line touched/tested. If this double top is successfully retested (and that is what is at stake this week with the rally from $156 to $169), the double top in place will suggest (if not broken this week) that a trend down to test the 200-week MA, currently at $128, will become the objective.

CBRL is expected to report earnings of $2.14 on Tuesday morning but the whisper number is $2.16 ($.02 cents better). If that is what happens, the stock is likely to rally up to at least the $170 demilitarized zone, if not up to the double top at $171.13/171.24. Nonetheless, if that is all that the bulls can do with the report, the stock would be prime candidate for a short position.

Sales of CBRL above 169.69 and using a 175.35 stop loss and having a 128.00 mid-term objective will offer a 7-1 risk/reward ratio. Keep in mind though, that after Friday's close, the chart will be clearer and the stop loss likely lowered.

My rating on the trade is a 3 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA went below the previous week's low and then closed in the green and in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning that if the bulls are able to get above last week's high at 1.56 this week that a successful retest of the recent 52-week low at 1.34 will have occurred. With the company releasing its earnings report on February 27th, it does look like the action last week (and probably this week as well) was mostly chart building action and clearly setting up support and resistance levels with successful retests of both. It is now evident that a break above 1.66 or below 1.34 will determine the direction for the next 3-6 months. Probabilities favor a 1.45 to 1.61 trading range this coming week.

BWA made a new 13-month intra-week and weekly close on Friday and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 42.38 will be seen this week. The stock broke out of a flag formation on both the intra-week and weekly closing chart that offers a 2-week objective of 46.44 and a 5-week objective of 47.79. The breakout also means that the 200-week MA, currently at 48.25 will become a magnet. Minor to perhaps decent intra-week resistance is found between 43.72 and 44.35 and minor at 45.85. Nonetheless, the momentum of the stock in conjunction with the momentum being seen in the index market does suggest the resistance levels will not pose much of an obstacle. If the bulls are able to get above 44.35, it should be easy sailing to the $47 level. Pivotal support is now found at Friday's low at 40.66, meaning that the stop loss can now be raised to 40.56. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.

CCJ confirmed that the previous week's drop down to 10.34 was a successful retest of the $10 level and of the 50-week MA, currently at 10.55, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing in the green on Friday. Nonetheless, the bulls were not able to generate a weekly close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that resumption of the uptrend may still be a couple of weeks away from happening and that more chart building may be occurring. Daily close support is found at 11.40 and stronger at 10.85. Likely pivotal daily close resistance is found at 12.36. Probabilities favor the stock trading this week between 11.23 and 12.24.

CLB made a new 10-week low and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 114.00 will be seen this week. The break of support was unexpected and may have some short-term consequences, given that there is only minor support on the daily closing chart between 112.68 and 113.12 but no support on the intra-week chart until 110.00 and no support on the weekly closing chart until the $106-$108 level is reached. In addition, the break of support did not come from weakness in the oil market, meaning that there might be some short-term negative brewing with the company. The bulls need to negate the break this week or face the probability of an additional 5% drop in price. Minor intra-week support is found at 113.12 and at 112.68. The stock gapped down on Friday between 115.15 and 115.00 and the probabilities favor the gap being closed this week. Nonetheless, the 200-day MA is currently at 115.80 and the bulls need to generate 2 daily closes in a row above that line to negate the break, and/or rally above last week's high at 117.61. To the downside, the bulls need to keep the stock above the 113.00 level or the bears will get the edge. Probabilities favor the bears this week but with no evident negative news, fundamentally the stock should be heading higher. Stop loss should remain at 112.50.

CLF made another new 28-month intra-week and weekly closing high on Friday, confirming the break above the 200-week MA, currently at 10.75. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 11.25 will be seen this week. The chart suggests that the probabilities favor a retest of the MA line and that a drop down to 10.75 will likely be seen. Minor intra-week support is found at 10.80 and then on a daily closing basis it is a bit stronger and more meaningful at 10.48 as that was the breakout level. Decent support is found at the gap area that occurred right after the earnings report came out at 9.95. Resistance is found at last week's high at 12.37 but it is considered minor since there is no history of resistance there. Probabilities favor the bears this week and a drop down to 10.-70-10.80 and then resumption of the uptrend the following week.

CNX generated a somewhat uneventful week, having trading in a small trading range between 17.37 and 16.78. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below 16.78 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the probabilities favor this minor weakness being a retest of the 4-month at 16.13 and once that occurs and is a successful one, the bulls will likely get the edge back. The parameters are clearly set right now with 16.13 being pivotal support and 17.85 being pivotal resistance. Any trading between those levels will be considered chart building. Probabilities favor the bears this week but slightly and with no break of pivotal support.

ENG bulls were unable to break above the 8-year 3-point trend line that had been reached the previous week with the rally up to 3.10 and the stock dropped 18.2% to close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.50 will be seen this week. The 3-point trend line is now a 4-pointer, which does give it more resistance strength as well as more pivotal power. The 3 intra-week highs that make up the trend line saw drops of anywhere from 20% to 31% before a retest of the previous high occurred, suggesting that the stock will drop down to somewhere between 2.13 and 2.48 this coming week and then reverse back up to retest the 3.10 high where the traders will decide if the downtrend is to continue or a break is to occur. Going back 9 years, there is decent intra-week support at 2.41 and at 2.19. Intra-week resistance is found at 2.72, at 2.89, at 2.96 and strongly pivotal at 3.10. Expect the stock to trade below last week's low this week and then rebound with one of the intra-week resistances seen above targeted. Decisions regarding the longer term outlook of the stock will likely be made within the next 2-3 weeks. The bears still have the longer term edge but the action seen getting to the trend line is different than it was in the past, suggesting the end result may be different this time.

FCEL generated follow through to the upside this past week, confirming that the previous week's rally was more than a 1-week pause in the downtrend. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 1.50 is likely to be seen this week. By the same token, building a bottom does require some type of successful retest of the low and that means that a drop down to the minor support built at 1.40 is likely to occur this week. What happens thereafter will decide whether the 1.25 low is a bottom (albeit possible a temporary one) or not. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.80 and minor support at 1.40 and decent at 1.25. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but on a mid-term basis, it is likely that the stock will bounce back up to the 2.00-2.30 level where longer term pivotal resistance is found.

FSLR generated the 3rd green weekly close in a row, suggesting that the bears will need some negative news to re-stimulate the downtrend. By the same token, the bulls have also been unable to make a statement of strength, meaning that there are still question marks about what the Trump Administration will mean to the solar energy industry. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 35.47 is expected to be seen. Minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 35.52 and decent as well as short-term pivotal at 36.41. A break above 36.41 would be a positive short-term statement that would suggest the stock will at least move up to the $40 level. Intra-week support is now minor to decent at 31.94 and short-term pivotal at 31.11. Probabilities favor the bulls for a rally up to at least 35.52 if not up near to 36.41 but getting above 36.41 will be the question for the week.

LVLT generated an inside week but extended its recent correction on the weekly closing chart, having closed in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 57.03 will be seen this week. Important weekly close support is found at 56.90 as that was the previous 9-year weekly closing high that got broken to the upside 7-weeks ago and a close below that level would give a failure signal, meaning that the bulls need to generate something positive this coming week in order to keep the buying interest strong. Minor to perhaps decent but certainly short-term pivotal support is found at 56.92. Below that level, there is minor to perhaps decent support between 55.98 and 56.18 and then nothing until 54.75. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is found at 58.19. The bulls will need to "thread the needle" this week, keeping the stock above 56.92 while trying to rally the stock above 58.19. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

MT made a new 18-month intra-week and weekly closing high on Friday but the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going below last week's low at 8.95 than above last week's high at 9.29. The stock generated a weekly gap between 8.84 and 8.95 that will likely be targeted for closure though the gap was generated after a better than expected earnings report. Nonetheless, the stock is getting near the 200-week MA, currently at 10.30, and selling interest will likely continue to increase as that level is approached. The key for this week is the support at 8.95 which is also last week's low. If the bulls are able to keep the stock above that level and rally above last week's high at 9.29, an attempt at the $10 demilitarized zone will likely occur. Closure of the gap at 8.84 would likely bring about a drop down to 8.45 which is the only intra-week support (minor) found on the chart. Probabilities for this week are evenly split but still favor the bulls for short term and a rally up to the $10 demilitarized zone.

X made a new 28-month intra-week and weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 40.45 will be seen this week. Decent intra-week resistance is found at 42.25 and then nothing until stronger resistance is found at 46.55. Nonetheless, on a weekly closing basis, the $40 demilitarized zone does pose a difficult obstacle for the bulls to break. If able to do so next Friday, a rally up to at least 45.19 will become a high probability. The stock did break out of a bullish flag formation that offers a 52.79 objective to be reached within 6 weeks, meaning that the bulls will need to be successful this week in generating follow through and at least breaking above the intra-week resistance at 42.25. Intra-week support is now pivotal at 38.03 as a drop below that level would give a failure signal that would be seen in a strong negative light. In fact, consideration should be given to moving the stop loss up to 37.93. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .133 (new price 1.60).

2) CLB - Purchased at 115.93. Stop loss at 112.50. Stock closed on Friday at 114.12.

3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.55.

4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.49.

5) MT - Averaged long at 6.244 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 7.57. Stock closed on Friday at 9.11.

6) FSLR - Averaged long at 39.938 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 34.84.

7) LVLT - Purchased at 59.11. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 57.30.

8) CLF - Averaged long at 9.06. Stop loss at 9.52. Stock closed on Friday at 11.49.

9) CNX - Averaged long at 20.05. Stop loss now at 16.03. Stock closed on Friday at 16.94.

10) X - Purchased at 33.03. Stop loss now at 37.93. Stock closed on Friday at 39.80.

11) BWA - Purchased at 41.73. 39.97. Averaged long at 40.856 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 40.56. Stock closed on Friday at 42.38.

12) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.47 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.72.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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