Issue #512 ![]() Jan 29, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Trump Era Begins With a Bang! DOW at 20,000!
DOW Friday closing price - 20,093
The DOW made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 20,125 will be seen this week.
The DOW has now printed and broken above a major psychological barrier at 20,000 and given the history of the index with the other psychological barrier at 10,000, further upside of as much as 700-1100 points is likely to be seen before a correction to this rally is occurs.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW has no resistance other than perhaps general resistance at 20,300.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW will now show minor to perhaps decent support at the 20,000 demilitarized zone (19970-20030). Below that level there is very minor support at 19748, minor at 19718 and minor to perhaps decent as well as short-term pivotal at 19677. Below that level there is no support until 19062.
The chart picture of the DOW is strongly bullish for the short term, given that the index broke out of a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 17883 to 19999 and the flag the trading range back down to 19677. The flag formation gives an objective of 21793 to be reached within the next 8 weeks. With no interest rate hike expected before April and none of Trump's edicts likely to show any negative effects on a short-term basis, the bulls may be on a "runaway freight train tract".
The traders in the DOW will be facing a fundamental week ahead that provides the only possible "monkey wrench" in the system. The week is full of important economic and earnings reports, with the Consumer Confidence number and Chicago PMI coming out on Tuesday, the ISM Index coming out on Wednesday and the Jobs report and Factory Orders coming out on Friday. In addition, AAPL reports on Tuesday after the close and AMZN reports on Thursday after the close. These are all important and possibly catalytic reports that on any other occasion could derail the rally if negative.
Nonetheless, due to the change of Administration occurring at this time and the wide latitude the traders are giving the President to institute his agenda, it is unlikely that any negative numbers from the past administration tenure will have any kind of a negative effect on the DOW at this time. As such, probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week.
SPX Friday closing price - 2271
The SPX made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2300 will be seen this week.
The SPX broke out of a bullish flag formation on the weekly chart with the flagpole being 7-week rally from 2083 to 2277 and flag being the trading range the past 7 weeks down to 2233. The objective of the flag is 2427 to be reached within a period of 7 weeks. The index was also showing a bullish flag formation on the "daily chart" with the flagpole being the rally from 2187 to 2282 and the flag being the trading range seen the past 6 weeks between 2233 and 2282. A break of the top of the flag at 2282 now offers a 2328 upside objective for the short-term.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows no resistance above other than perhaps general resistance at 2330.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX will now likely show minor to perhaps decent support at the previous all-time intra-week high at 2282. Below that level, the index shows very minor support at 2258, minor at 2254, at 2248 and minor to decent as well as short-term pivotal support at 2233. Below that, there is no support until minor but likely longer term pivotal support is found at 2187.
The SPX gapped up on Wednesday between 2284 and 2288 and considering there is technically a gap between 2197 and 2199 that was made on December 5th, it can be assumed that a breakaway/runaway gap is now in place. When added to the flag formation and new all-time highs made it does suggest strong and immediate upside is to come. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5660
The NASDAQ made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5669 will be seen this week.
The NASDAQ is once again the leader of the market, having moved up 1.9% this past week, compared to 1.4% for the DOW and 1.1% for the SPX. Regaining the leadership of the market is a bullish statement that suggests that traders are convinced that further upside will be seen and that the risk is small of a top being found soon.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ shows no resistance above except perhaps general resistance at 5700.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ will show minor to perhaps decent support at the previous all-time intra-week 55.84. Below that level, there is minor support at 5522 and minor and likely short-term pivotal support at 5496. Below that level, there is very minor support at 5426 and minor to decent but mid-term pivotal at 5371.
The NASDAQ is going to be the index everyone watches this week for clues as to what the market "could generate" over the next couple of months. The index has "general" resistance between 5700 and 5730 and using last year's rally seen between June 27th and September 7th that took the index from 4574 to 5287 before a correction of consequence occurred, if the same percentage run occurs now, a rally top between 5703 and 5713 would be seen. AAPL and AMZN report earnings this week and if those reports are better than expected and the index rallies past 5730, it would suggest further upside with even perhaps the 6000 level as a viable objective. A rally up to that level this week would mean a rally of 1.3% above last week's close and that would be less than the 1.9% rally seen last week. If that occurs, it might be a sign that the index is reaching at least a temporary top. Anything above that would inspire the bulls for more.
It took a couple of days this past week for the traders to decide what to do but when they did, the indexes took off to the upside and made new all-time highs. There are no resistance levels above or psychological levels of consequence to aim for or pause the indexes, meaning that the bulls have open air and little to stop them. There are important economic reports this week (ISM Index, Jobs, and Factory Orders) but it seems that at this time economic reports are not being paid attention to as the traders are keying on what Trump is doing and what kind of benefits it will bring to the market. So far, the traders are happy with what they have seen and there doesn't seem to be anything that could happen this week that would derail further upside.
Somewhere along the line, this runaway freight train will come to a stop but it does not seem that this is the week that will happen. The technical traders have nothing to work on as far as resistance levels or potential objectives are concerned and for the time being while momentum is strong, the bulls will be in control until something happens or the buying begins to ebb. Indexes are expected to continue strong to the upside this week. Failure to accomplish such a goal will be a cause for concern.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There are no mentions this week in the newsletter as I ran out of time this weekend to take a close look at charts of potential buys that offer high probability ratings but low risk. There are not many of those and it requires extra time which I did not have this weekend.
The mention given in the message board regarding shorting CBRL above 162.00 remains viable in spite of the indexes likely to continue higher. The stock gave notice that selling interest is strong when the stock rallied to 161.65 but closed out the week $3 lower. This suggests that even if the indexes continue strongly higher than selling interest will be found above 162.00. Stop loss would be placed at 163.35 (above the general resistance area). Objective is at least $155 but the chart formation offers a possible $140-$142 target. AS such, the risk/reward ratio is excellent though the probability rating because of the runaway index market is not high.
I will be looking at charts tomorrow morning and if I find something of interest it will be put on the message board. I am not yet looking to short any stocks (other than CBRL) since the index charts suggest further upside of consequence is likely to be seen and immediately. Nonetheless, the action being seen right now does look and feel like an exhaustion rally is underway, meaning that sometime in the next few weeks (2 - 8) a major top will be made. As such, buying right now requires finding stocks that have "close by" support levels that are dependable and that is almost like finding "a needle in a haystack". The charts do offer some fast profits on the long side but the explosive runaway-freight-train tract also requires clearly defined stop loss placements that limit the risk.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA generated a green weekly close on Friday and negated the previous week's new 62-month low weekly close. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to generate a buy signal, having still closed below the most recent high weekly close at 1.51. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1.49 is expected to be seen this week. Intra-week resistance is found at 1.56 that if broken in conjunction with a daily close above 1.51/1.53 would be a signal that the downtrend is over. The stock did generate 5 green daily closes out of the last 6 days and that is in direct contrast with what the bulls have been able to do over the past 10 weeks, meaning that it is possible that a low to the downtrend has been made. Nonetheless, the bulls have more to do and until that happens, the trend will remain down. Intra-week support should now be found between 1.37 and 1.42. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls this week. BWA generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and then closing above the previous weeks high. The stock closed very slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, meaning that there is about the same chance of going above last week's high at 41.43 than going below last week's low at 39.30. By the same token, the chart remains bullish, given that the trading range remains within the flag of a bullish flag formation that if broken (an intra-week rally above 41.98) would offer an upside objective of 46.67. The stock did close near the lows of the day on Friday and the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the downside below Friday's low at 40.20. Intra-day support is found between 39.75 and 40.20 and intra-week support is found at 39.30, at 39.08 and at 38.90. A break below 39.30 would weaken the chart. Probabilities remain favoring the bulls. CLF went below last week's low but then generated a green weekly close, meaning that if the bulls can take the stock above last week's high at 9.43 that a successful retest of the recent low at 8.28 will have occurred on the weekly chart. By the same token, the stock has already generated a successful retest on the daily chart (both on an intra-week and daily closing basis), having closed a week ago Friday at 8.73 and an intra-week low on Monday at 8.58, followed by 5 higher daily closes and 4 higher intra-week lows. Last week's high at 9.43 is now pivotal as a break of that level would stop the string (2) of lower intra-week highs that has been seen since December 8th high at 10.90 occurred. Pivotal intra-week support is now found at 8.58, meaning that last week's high and low are what the traders will key on this week for help with short-term direction. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. CNX generated a 4-week high weekly close and in the process gave a mini buy signal, having closed above the most recent high weekly close at 18.64. On a negative note, the stock got up to the bottom of the $20 demilitarized zone and backed off to close in the middle of the week's trading range, leaving the door open for new selling interest to appear if last week's low at 18.21 is broken. The stock does show previous highs at 19.62 and 19.76, meaning that it can be said that the chart is now fulfilled for both the bulls and bears with short-term resistance at 19.76 and short-term support at 17.77. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls given than the 52-week uptrend remains intact. By the same token, the close at the middle of the week's trading range suggests that the traders are waiting for new information to decide on a direction from here. Probabilities still favor the bulls. ENG made a new 29-month intra-week and weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.95 is expected to be seen this week. The stock rallied 27% from low to high this past week, meaning that there is a lot of trading interest in the stock at this time. This is certainly evident in the volume being seen, which has averaged 15 times more over the past 6 trading days than what was being seen before the rally began. The stock will likely reach an important trend line level this week at 3.10. The trend line started in April 2009 at 6.47 and now has 3 points on it with highs at 5.68 on February 2011 and 4.22 on June 2014, meaning that the trend line is not only valid but meaningful for the longer term trend. On an intra-week basis, the stock does not show any resistance until very minor at 3.27, a slightly bit stronger at 3.51 and another bit stronger at 3.65. Decent to perhaps strong resistance is found at 4.22. The trend line is based on intra-week highs and as such means that a rally above 3.10 by at least 10 points would be meaningful. Then again, on a weekly closing basis, that trend line was broken on Friday as the line was at 2.75 and the stock closed at 2.88. The drop down to the support line at 2.00, seen 3 weeks ago and the subsequent rally to new highs is a change of pattern to the previous spike highs and suggests that this time the bulls will break the downtrend and generate a more meaningful rally than in the past. In looking at the long-term monthly chart, it does suggest that a rally to somewhere between 3.80 and 4.20 will be seen but that a strong correction back down to 2.00 would then ensue, meaning that the probabilities are high that the stock will get into a $2-$4 trading range for the next 6-12 months. FCEL made another new all-time weekly closing low at 1.55 (1.50 on an intra-week basis) and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside will be seen. The "general" support at 1.70 was broken and the stock is now on free-fall with 1.00 being the next psychological objective if 1.50 is broken. Minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 2.05 and decent as well as pivotal at 2.30. Probabilities favor the bears. FSLR generated a failure signal, having made a new 2+month high 3 weeks ago and breaking the previous low weekly close support at 32.09 on Friday. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 31.38 is expected to be seen. This down move was likely caused by Trump's stated support this past week of dirty fuels (oil, gas, shale, coal) versus clean energy. The stock is facing a pivotal week, given that the monthly close is on Tuesday and a close below 30.20 would give fuel to further downside and even perhaps a new low below November's low at 28.60. Intra-week support is minor at 30.85, minor but likely indicative at 29.65 and decent as well as longer term pivotal at 28.60. Minor resistance is now found at 33.49, and minor to perhaps decent between 34.28 and 34.51. Further resistance is found at 35.52 and decent as well as pivotal at 36.41. This move down was not caused by any change of fundamentals in the company but simply by comments made by Trump. As such, the stock could turn on a dime if those comments change or no follow through is seen to the environmental protection policy. Nonetheless, for this week, the probabilities favor the bears with the bulls totally on the defensive. The chart now favors a drop back down to the multi-year low at 28.60, with perhaps a double bottom occurring if no further negatives come out. LVLT made another new 8+year high this past week and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 58.84 will be seen this week. The stock got up to the $60 demilitarized zone and as such saw some selling come in, causing a red day to occur on Friday. Nonetheless, there is no resistance above (other than psychological at the $60 demilitarized zone) until 62.25 is reached and even then that resistance is on a weekly closing basis. On an intra-week basis, above 60.30 (top of the demilitarized zone) there is old resistance (from 2004) at 63.75 and then nothing until 67.20 is reached. The company is presently in the middle of a merger with Century Link that would give $66.50 per share to the stockholders. This amount was last stated on October 31st and I don't know if it has changed since then. Support is now found at 58.88, which is the low seen on Thursday, which turned out to be a positive reversal day. Stop loss is presently at 58.65 and it should be maintained at that price, given that any weakness at this time would be considered a negative. MT generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 8-week high but then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.00 will be seen this week. By the same token, it seems the traders are waiting for additional news before making a new decision on direction, given than the stock has traded sideways for the past 3 weeks between 7.89 and 8.40. Support is found at 8.00 and at 7.89 and pivotal at 7.25 and resistance at 8.30 and at 8.40. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls as the stock remains in an uptrend. X generated another positive reversal on the weekly chart, having made a new 7-week low but then closing in the green and above the previous week's also green close. The stock has been under sell pressure due to the downgrade given 3 weeks ago with a $30 objective but buying interest is seen every time the stock goes down given the emphasis the Trump administration is giving to infrastructure spending. This past week, Trump signed an executive order to re-start the Keystone pipeline and stated that it will be built with American Steel and that turned the stock from a downslide into a positive reversal week. Minor but likely pivotal intra-week resistance is found at 34.94 that if broken would break the lower highs pattern seen the past 4 weeks and if that occurs, it is likely the traders will take that as a sign that the token retest of the 30.57 level (got down to 31.31 this past week) has occurred as well as fulfillment of the $30 objective of the downgrade. Support is found at 31.31 and decent at 30.57. Probabilities still slightly favor the bears this week but the difference is slight. XOM failed to follow through off of the previous week's close on the lows of the week and generated an inside week but with a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 85.88 will be seen this week. The stock has found support around the 84.70-85.00 level but buying interest has remained low. The stock is showing a bearish inverted flag formation on the daily chart but that formation is not being seen yet in the weekly chart, meaning it is not dependable. Nonetheless, a new low below the recent low at 84.59 would offer a 2-day objective of down to 83.16. Intra-week resistance is now found at 85.96 that if broken in conjunction with a daily close above 85.93 would invalidate the bearish flag. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 87.39 that if broken, would suggest the low for the recent downtrend has been made. Probabilities favor the bears but the recent inability of the bears to push the stock lower and the ability of the bulls to hold support is causing uncertainty, meaning that this coming week could be a pivotal one.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .129 (new price 1.55). 2) ZIOP - Liquidated at 5.91. Averaged long at 5.92. Loss on the trade of $2 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.88. 4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.48. 5) MT - Averaged long at 6.244 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 6.18. Stock closed on Friday at 8.12. 6) FSLR - Averaged long at 41.758 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 31.48. 7) XOM - Averaged long at 88.845 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 84.49. Stock closed on Friday at 85.51. 8) LVLT - Purchased at 59.11. Stop loss at 58.65. Stock closed on Friday at 59.61. 9) CLF - Purchased at 8.97. Averaged long at 9.06. Stop loss at 7.69. Stock closed on Friday at 9.02. 10) CNX - Averaged long at 20.05. Stop loss is at 16.65. Stock closed on Friday at 19.00. 11) X - Purchased at 33.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.77. 12) BWA - Purchased at 40.87. Stop loss at 39.20. Stock closed on Friday at 40.40. 13) CVX - Purchased at 117.15. Liquidated at 113.61. Loss on the trade of $354 per 100 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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