Issue #509
Jan 8, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Strong Start to 2017. New All-Time Highs Made!

DOW Friday closing price - 19756

The DOW generated a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high on Friday and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 19.999 will be seen this week. Evidently if that happens, a print of 20,000 level will be seen and a major psychological level reached.

The DOW started the new-year on a positive note with the bulls making a statement that they expect the Trump Presidency to help the market continue the 8-year uptrend it has been on.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW shows no resistance other than psychological at 20,000 and up to the top of the demilitarized zone at 20,030. Further general resistance is likely to be found at 20,300.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW will now show short-term pivotal support at 19718 and on down to 19m670. Below that level, there is no support until very minor support at 19062.

Based on the 3 previous occasions that the DOW got up to a major psychological resistance (such as 10,000 was) the index continued higher between 726 and 1138 points before a serious correction occurred. If history repeats itself, the index will likely continue up to somewhere between 20,700 and 21,100 once the 20,030 level is breached.

On a possible negative note, the DOW has been above 19950 on 10 out of the last 17 trading days (including Friday up to 19,999) and has failed to print 20,000 in spite of the fact there has not been any negative news to stop the bulls from getting up to and above that level. With the ISM Index and Jobs report coming out as expected this past week, the bulls were still not able to re-stimulate the uptrend that began to stall on December 14th.

By the same token, this coming week the earnings quarter begins and for the past few years the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter has been positive for the DOW, suggesting that it is likely that it will all be positive at least through the first week after Trump takes office on January 21st. As such, the probabilities favor the bulls this week.

SPX Friday closing price - 2276

The SPX generated a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high on Friday, having gone above the previous high at 2277 (2271 on a weekly closing basis) seen in December at 2277. The index closed on the highs of the week and further upside above 2282 is expected to be seen this week.

The SPX seems to be mimicking the rally seen between 1994 and 2000 where the index more than tripled in value from 432 to 1552 over that 6 year period in time (went up 3.5 times in value). Using that same equation and the 2009 low at 666, the index projects the rally will potentially top out at 2331. It is also interesting to note that on the 1994-2000 rally there were 6 corrections before the 7th rally became the top and on this 8-year rally there have been 6 corrections and we are now on the 7th rally, suggesting this could be the last rally before a top is made.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows no resistance above, though 2300-2330 could be considered a "general" resistance area.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows minor support at 2248 and minor to decent as well as short-term pivotal support at 2233. Below that, there is no support until minor but likely longer term pivotal support is found at 2187.

One further chart note, in the year 2000 the index generated a 14.7% rally from the last correction to the top, which in turn means that using the last correction on this rally (seen at 2083), a 14.7% rally would give a 2389 potential top. Considering the fact that this rally has been all speculative based on the Trump win, common trading sense suggests that this rally will end up with a major top. It is unlikely that the Trump Presidency will turn out better than the speculation. "Buy the anticipation and sell the fact" is an adage that fits the situation to a tee.

The SPX will be the first index to receive earnings reports this week, with BAC, JPM and WFC reporting on Friday before the opening bell. Banks have been one of the main recipients of a positive outlook based on the Trump win and the interest rate hike seen in December is also likely to have given them a better-than-expected quarter, meaning that the index is likely to continue higher this week and could be the leader of the market. Based on last week's 37 point rally from low to high, it certainly is possible the index will get up this week to the first of the 2 possible objectives/tops mentioned above.

Probabilities favor the bulls in the SPX.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5521

The NASDAQ negated the "classic" key reversal that occurred the previous week, having made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high on Friday. The index closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 5536 is expected to be seen.

Going back to 1999/2000 when the NASDAQ was running up to the major all-time high at 5132 that was not broken for 16 years thereafter, the index generated 3 classic reversals on the way up. None of the reversals was negated the week after (such as this one) but the last 2 reversals (both seen in "January" 2000) were almost back to back (within 3 weeks) and they signaled that a major top was only a few weeks away as within 5 weeks of the last reversal negated the top was made. It is difficult to evaluate this period of time with that one, at least from a value/price point of view, because the fundamental picture was totally different (dot.com era) but the action being seen does suggest that a major top is likely only a few weeks away.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ has no resistance above, not even psychological or general.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ shows very minor support at 5426 and minor to decent but short-term pivotal at 5371. Below that level, there is mid-term pivotal support at 5238.

As I stated in the December 11th newsletter and based on AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX and PCLN upside chart objectives, the NASDAQ could be looking at reaching a high of at least 5594, if and when the index follows what these 5 stocks are expected to accomplish to the upside.

For the time being and with the negation of the classic reversal seen this past week, the NASDAQ is expected to move higher this week. Based on last week's 139 point move from high to low and considering that the previous all-time high daily close is at 5487, it does suggest that the index could get up as high as 5626 this week.

Probabilities favor the bulls in the NASDAQ.


The indexes started the year on a strong note, having negated the weakness seen the last week of 2016 and making new all-time highs across the board. The earnings quarter starts this week with AA reporting on Thursday and banks stocks (BAC, JPM, and WFC) reporting on Friday. The first 3 weeks of earnings quarters have normally favored the bulls and there seems to be no reason at this time to think that will change.

Trump takes office on the 21st of the month, meaning that for at least the next 2 weeks the traders will continue to anticipate good things happening for the market.

Oil made a new 9-month high this past week and will likely remain supportive of the market, suggesting that there are no fundamental obstacles facing the bulls this week other than the important psychological resistance in the DOW at 20,000.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Everything (fundamentals and charts) seems to point to higher prices this week and continuation of the market uptrend. By the same token, the probabilities favor that sometime over the next 3-6 weeks a top to this rally, perhaps even a long-term top, will be found. As such, long positions put on at this time have to offer a good risk/reward ratio and a high probability rating, as well as some reason to think they will continue higher even if the indexes find a top. This was a difficult task, especially considering that most stocks that show immediate upward potential are close to all-time highs and do not offer good risk/reward ratios. Simply stated, this is not a good time to chase.

Nonetheless, I did find 2 stocks that are just about perfect for heading higher based on the fundamental changes likely to be seen in the Trump Presidency, as well as offering good risk/reward ratios and upside objective that are highly viable, not to mention good support levels below that are unlikely to be broken even if the indexes do find tops.

CCJ Friday Closing Price - 10.77

CCJ is a company that produces and sells Uranium worldwide. With commodities starting to see some new buying interest and the stock showing a positive chart, it is a stock that has potential for a nice payday and offers small risk.

CCJ has been in an uptrend since November when it got down to a low at 7.41 and in the process created a double bottom from which the rally began. On December 8th, the stock broke above the 200-day MA for the first time in 6 months and since then the stock has stayed above the line on 17 of the last 19 trading days, having broken below the line twice for a period of 1 day, suggesting that the line has now been tested enough times to believe the uptrend is now likely to resume.

It is important to note that the 200-day MA in CCJ is currently at 10.25 which also represents the always psychologically important $10 level. With the stock having now established a strong beachhead above $10, the bears will likely need a negative fundamental change to break below that level at this time. Simply stated, the stock seems to be "at" a level of support that is unlikely to be broken and is a perfect level from which to institute a purchase.

CCJ closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range but did close near the lows of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside, offering an opportunity to purchase the stock at a good price and near the top of the $10 demilitarized zone.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, CCJ shows minor resistance at last week's high at 11.25 and then nothing until minor to decent resistance is found between 12.47 and 12.53. Above that level there is decent resistance at 13.50 and minor to decent at 14.79. The 200-week MA is currently at 16.00, and that is certainly a viable objective since the 200-day has now been broken convincingly.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, CCJ shows minor to perhaps decent support at 10.12 and then decent as well as longer term pivotal at 9.96.

CCJ has established itself above the $10 level and based on the action seen last week, as well as the red daily close on Friday, a drop down to the 10.30-10.40 level is expected to be seen this week. As far as the objective of the trade, a rally up to 12.66 is a high probability for the next couple of weeks but the stock could get up as high as 15.00-16.00 over the next 3-6 months.

Purchases of CCJ between 10.30 and 10.40 and using a stop loss at 9.65 and having a 12.66 objective will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

X Friday Closing Price - 35.40

X enjoyed a strong rally from November 2nd to December 8th from a low of 17.05 to 39.15 and like most steel related companies has traded sideways for the past 4 weeks. The rally and sideways trading action show a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from the low to the high mentioned above and the flag the trading range back down to 32.93. A break above the top of the flag at 39.15 would offer an upside objective of 55.02.

X closed in the middle of last week's trading range, leaving the door open for either the high (37.41) or the low (33.51) being broken this week. Nonetheless, the stock made a new 4-week low the previous week at 32.93 and the stock closed on the lows of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for this week will be to the downside and below Friday's low at 35.28 occurring. This action would be seen as a possible retest of 32.93 low, which in turn would offer a good buying opportunity based on the flag formation.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, X shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at last week's high at 37.41 and then decent resistance at the 5 weeks high at 39.15. Above that level, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance between 42.25 and 43.15 and then decent resistance at 5+-year high at 46.15. Further resistance is found at 51.39 and then nothing until the $60 level is reached.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, X shows minor support at 33.78 and 33.89 and then decent at 32.93. Below that level, there is minor support at 31.96.

The bullish flag formation and the shift toward the commodity market heading higher due to higher inflation and Trump's plans to increase infrastructure rebuilding in the near future are the basis for this trade. Though the flag formation offers a $55 objective, it is unlikely that objective will be reached in the near future. Nonetheless, a rally up to the resistance area between 42.25 and 46.15 is highly viable and will be used for the risk/reward ratio of this trade.

A purchase of X below 34.00 and using a 32.65 stop loss and having a $42-$45 objective will offer at least a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA continues to trade sideways between 1.35 and 1.67 as it has done for the past 12 weeks. On a slight negative note, the bulls were unable to break a minor intra-week resistance at 1.56 on Thursday, having gone up to that level and then falling back on Friday and in the process building a short-term double high at that price. Nonetheless, the stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further upside above 1.56 will be seen this week. The short-term chart (last 4 weeks) is slightly skewed in favor of the bulls, suggesting the top of the sideways trend at 1.67 is likely to be tested first.

CLF generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-week low and then closing in the green. Nonetheless, the reversal is not convincing, given that the stock closed on the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 8.28 will be seen this week. There is no previous intra-week support until 7.70-7.87 is reached but on a daily and weekly closing basis, support is found at the previous closing highs at 8.10/8.11. Probabilities favor the bears this week and a drop down to the 8.00 level.

CNX generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 8-week low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 18.79 will be seen this week. The stock got down to the strong support at 17.13 with a drop down 17.02 which is also where the 100-week MA was located. Resistance is very minor at 18.77 and then slightly stronger at 19.62, which does include the $20 demilitarized zone. Further resistance is found at 20.66 and then nothing until the recent 6-month high at 22.34 is reached. The chart strongly suggests that the $20 demilitarized zone will be seen this week. Longer term chart still suggests the recent uptrend that started 51 weeks ago will continue with a target of reaching the 200-week MA, currently at 26.90. Support is found at 17.86 and at 17.13. A drop back down to 17.86 is likely to be seen this week but probabilities favor the bulls and another green close next Friday.

ENG made a new 25-month intra-week and weekly closing high but found selling interest near the spike high at 2.92 seen in November 2014, having gotten up to 2.89 and then turning down to close still in the green but near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.43 will be seen this week. The stock closed on Friday at a decent level of weekly close resistance between 2.47 and 2.52, suggesting a decent probability of a red weekly close being seen next Friday. The chart suggests a high probability that the stock will get into a trading range between 2.00 and 2.50 for next 5 months, based on weekly closes. Nonetheless, on an intra-week basis and based on the recent volatility being seen, there is still a decent chance that the stock will get up to the 3-point 8-year trend line that is currently at 3.05. Minor support is found at 2.52 and again between 2.20 and 2.24. Probabilities favor the bears this week on a weekly closing basis, but intra-week the door remains open for a spike high at 3.00-3.05 being seen.

FCEL seems to have found some buying interest, having generated 4 green daily closes in a row, having gone above the previous week's high and closing in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.05 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, until the bulls are able to break above a double high resistance at 2.30, the bears will remain with the short-term edge. Support is found at 1.85 that should hold at this time as a rally up to 2.15 is expected to be seen this week. By the same token, the 200 60-minute MA is currently at last week's high at 2.05 and that line has not been broken for at least the last 10-weeks, meaning 2.05 is an important pivot point this week. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

FSLR did not see any follow through to the downside after having closed on the lows of the week the previous week, suggesting the bulls have a very slight edge at this time. Nonetheless, the green weekly close has opened the door for the bulls to make some kind of statement this week if they can get intra-week above 35.52 and close next Friday above 35.11. Minor but possible short-term pivotal resistance is found at 34.51. Pivotal support is now found at 31.94 that if broken would suggest 29.90 will be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week but the key word is "slightly".

IBM generated a green week with a close on the highs of the week that suggests further upside above last week's high at 169.92 will be seen this week. The stock closed 40 points above the 200-week MA, currently at 169.05, and got up to the previous high at 169.95 that was seen 5 weeks ago, meaning that any break above the top of the $170 demilitarized zone (170.30) in conjunction with another green close next Friday would mean that the 27-month long-term downtrend is over and that a sideways trend would then be in effect. As such, what the stock does this week is likely to be decisive, at least as far as the longer-term trend is concerned. Minor support is found at 167.26 and stronger and short-term pivotal at 165.25. Stop loss remains at 170.35. Probabilities favor the bulls but it is a pivotal week.

MT generated a green weekly close (the first in 4 weeks), suggesting the recent downtrend may be over. Nonetheless, the stock generated a red daily close on Friday and closed in the middle of the week's trading range, leaving the door open for both bulls and bears to make a short-term statement this week, especially considering that last week's low at 7.25 does not represent any previously established support level. By the same token, the stock is in an uptrend and the overall market is expected to go higher, in conjunction with the fact that commodities in general seem to have turned back toward the upside, meaning the probabilities favor the bulls. Short-term pivotal resistance is at 7.86 and short-term pivotal support is at 7.25.

XOM generated a negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing below the previous week's low. The company received a class action suit by its employees alleging that stock price was inflated between November 2015 and October 2016 due to overstated oil and gas stock reserves. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 87.82 is expected to be seen this week. The stock closed the breakaway gap on the weekly chart and the runaway gap on the daily chart, which does take away the positive action seen when its CEO Tillerson was named as Trump's Secretary of State nominee. The stock closed below the 200-week MA, currently at 89.20, and also broke intra-day the 200-day MA on Friday, currently at 88.10, but closed above that line and in the upper half of the day's trading range, suggesting the first course of action for the week may be to the upside above Friday's high at 88.98. If the bulls can generate a green close on Monday, the effect of the negative news may ebb as a successful retest of the 200-day MA will have occurred and if no follow through to the downside below 87.82 is seen and the stock closes above 89.20 next Friday, the bulls will be "back on the saddle". Short-term pivotal support is found at 86.60 and then mid-term pivotal at 85.08. Resistance will be found at 89.37 and a little stronger at the $90 demilitarized zone. A rally above 90.30 would suggest the news has lost its impact and that the uptrend would resume. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.

ZIOP did not follow through to the downside after the previous week's break of the 200-week MA and close on the lows of the week and ended up having an inside week and a green close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5.95 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to make a statement, given that the stock still closed for a 2nd week in a row below the 200-week MA and was unable to go above the previous week's high, meaning that the only thing that was accomplished this past week was a pause to evaluate the stock (and the overall market) this coming week. Intra-week resistance is found between 6.14 and 6.24 that if broken would give the bulls the edge, especially if next Friday the stock closes above 6.04. Minor support at 6.37 and pivotal at 6.24. Probabilities favor the bulls at the beginning of the week and for a rally up to 6.14-6.24 but slightly favor the bears for the end of the week, especially if the indexes close in the red next Friday.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .166 (new price 2.00).

2) ZIOP - Averaged long at 5.92 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.77.

3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.52.

4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.51.

5) MT - Averaged long at 6.244 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 6.18. Stock closed on Friday at 7.61.

6) FSLR - Averaged long at 41.758 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 32.09.

7) XOM - Averaged long at 88.845 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 86.50. Stock closed on Friday at 88.50.

8) IBM - Shorted at 118.73. Stop loss at 120.35. Stock closed on Friday at 169.53.

9) CLF - Purchased at 9.15. Stop loss at 7.69. Stock closed on Friday at 8.47.

10) LVLT - Covered shorts at 57.35. Shorted at 56.21. Loss on the trade of $114 per 100 shares plus commissions.

11) CNX - Averaged long at 20.05. Stop loss is at 16.65. Stock closed on Friday at 18.47.

12) FB - Covered shorts at 123.35. Shorted at 121.32. Loss on the trade of $203 per 100 shares plus commissions.

13) FB - Shorted at 120.05. Covered shorts at 122.11. Loss on the trade of $206 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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