Issue #511 ![]() Jan 22, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Trump Era Begins. Traders Wait for Direction!
DOW Friday closing price - 19827
The DOW made a new 6-week low but the bears were unable to generate any follow through when the index held at the general resistance area between 19670-19730 (had a low of 19677) and then rallied at the end of the week to close uneventfully but in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 19882 will be seen this week.
The DOW is now facing what seems to be a pivotal week, given that the new President has taken office and the entire rally seen the last 2 months has been based on the idea that Trump will be very good for business and therefore good for the market. The 20,000 level is the pivotal level the traders will attempt to get up to and above this week and if successful the uptrend that started on November 8th will continue.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows very minor resistance at 19952, minor at 19973 and decent at 19999. Psychological resistance is found up to the top of the 20,000 demilitarized zone at 20,030 and then nothing until general resistance at 20,300.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows very minor support at 19748, minor at 19718 and minor to perhaps decent as well as short-term pivotal at 19677. Below that level there is no support until 19062.
The Head & Shoulders formation in the DOW that I mentioned last week was triggered when the neckline was broken on Tuesday but given that it was an "iffy" H&S formation, the rally on Friday negated the break, suggesting that the traders are now looking simply at simple support and resistance chart with likely pivotal support at 19670 and pivotal resistance at 19999. With Trump having taken office on Friday, a clearer picture of what is likely to happen will emerge this week and likely give the bulls or the bears ammunition for a break of either of those 2 levels and some direction for the next 8-12 weeks.
As mentioned in recent newsletters, if the DOW is able to generate a print of 20,000, the possible upside objective over the next few weeks could be as much as a rally to somewhere between 20,726 and 21,138. This upside objective is based on the 3 previous occasions when the index got up to the major psychological level of 10,000 and rallies of anywhere from 726 to 1138 points above that level were seen. In addition, if the index is able to get above the 20,000 level it would suggest that a strong correction would not likely occur before February.
The probabilities continue to favor the bulls in the DOW given that there has been no changes in the outlook since Trump got elected on November 8th. By the same token, this is a week that is pivotal as the chart is now "fulfilled" for one of the 2 scenarios outlined above to occur.
SPX Friday closing price - 2271
The SPX had an uneventful week, having generated an inside week and trading between short-term support at 2254 (got down to 2258) and short-term resistance at 2278 (got up to 2276) with no breaks occurring. The weekly close was red but only by 3 points and with no weekly close supports or resistances broken it does suggest it was simply a pause as the traders await the actions of the new President this coming week. The index closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2276 is expected to be seen.
The SPX is showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 2187 to 2282 and the flag being the trading range seen the past 6 weeks between 2233 and 2282. A break of the top of the flag at 2282 offers a 2328 upside objective.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows minor resistance at 2278 and minor to decent at the all-time high at 2282. Above that level there is no resistance other than "general" between 2300 and 2330.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows very minor support at 2258, minor at 2254, at 2248 and minor to decent as well as short-term pivotal support at 2233. Below that, there is no support until minor but likely longer term pivotal support is found at 2187.
The SPX will be used this week as the "indicative" index by the traders, given that it is the only index that has a clearly defined formation (bull flag) that if broken would offer another clearly defined objective (2328 = 2% rally) that the bulls can use to measure how much the other indexes may rally as well.
Probabilities favor the bulls this week in the SPX.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5555
The NASDAQ generated an inside week (as well as a red weekly close) on Friday in spite of the fact the index has been the most bullish index for the past 2 months, closed on the high of the week last week, and one of its main stocks (NFLX) received a better than expected earnings report. The lack of technical follow through this past week sent up a red flag that will be closely monitored this week when 2 more of the "big five" stocks (AMZN and GOOGL) report earnings on Thursday after the close.
Nonetheless, the NASDAQ closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5574 will be seen this week and if that happens it will put the index within 10 points of the all-time high at 5584, meaning that like the DOW and the SPX, the bulls are in a position to keep the uptrend intact if a new all-time high is made.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, NASDAQ shows minor resistance at the all-time high at 5584. Above that level, there is no resistance above, including general or psychological.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ shows very minor support at 5528 and minor and likely short-term pivotal support at 5496. Below that level, there is very minor support at 5426 and minor to decent but mid-term pivotal at 5371.
As I stated in the December 11th newsletter and based on AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX and PCLN upside chart objectives, the NASDAQ could be looking at reaching a high of at least 5594, if and when the index follows what these 5 stocks are expected to accomplish to the upside. With the index having gotten up to 5484 2 weeks ago, it is possible that the top to this rally has been made or could be seen this coming week if a new high is made but the index does not break above 5600. Nonetheless, in looking at the monthly closing chart and the previous high and correction that ensued, there is another possible upside objective at 5699 that fits in with the "general" resistance that is likely to be found 300 points below the 6000 level.
The probabilities continue to favor the bulls in the NASDAQ but like with the other indexes, if no new all-time highs are made this week and the 5496 level is broken, then the traders will start re-evaluating the future outlook for the index.
The time has come for the traders to make some decisions on what the new President is likely to mean to the market. For the past 2 months the traders have been speculating on the outlook for the market but did not have any clear ideas on what the Trump administration was going to do or more importantly, what they would be able to "accomplish". Nonetheless, some of those questions will start to be answered this week as confirmation of several nominees have to be made, specific plans for changes to Health Care, Market regulations, and Immigration are likely to be offered, and a more defined game plan for the Trump Presidency is expected to be given.
This is also the second week of the earnings quarter and a whole slew of earning reports of consequence are scheduled to be released with most of the DOW stock reporting this week and the NASDAQ having AMZN and GOOGL reporting on Thursday after the close. As such, by Friday the traders are likely to have a clearer picture of where the economy is presently at and what Trump has planned for improving it.
The charts have been "fulfilled" as far as support and resistance levels are concerned, meaning the traders will be able to determine as soon as one of the other is broken the likely direction to follow. As such, this 4th week of January could begin to determine what the market will do the rest of the year.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There are no mentions this week in the newsletter but that is more because direction for the market and for the year could be determined this week and until that happens, trades will offer conflicting probability numbers. By the same token, as soon as the traders decide on a direction (which could be as soon as Monday), mentions will be given in the message board.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA made a new 6-year weekly closing low on Friday and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.34 will be seen this week. By the same token, the bears were not able to break the 1.30/1.32 intra-week low seen in February of last year, meaning that no bear statement was made. On the other side of the coin, the February lows are a double bottom and if the 1.30/1.32 level is seen again, the probabilities will favor a break of that support and a drop down to the all-time intra-week high at 1.21 (1.24 on a weekly closing basis). On a slight positive note, the stock generated a positive reversal day on Friday, having made a new 11-month low and then going above Thursday's high and closing in the green, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 1.40 is expected to be seen on Monday. Minor resistance is found at 1.50 and short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.56. Probabilities very slightly favor the bears. CLF generated an uneventful inside week but a red weekly close was the end result, meaning that a successful retest of the 24-month high weekly close at 9.93 occurred. The stock is now facing a pivotal week, inasmuch as the stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 8.73 is expected to be seen and if the recent intra-week low at 8.28 is broken, a drop down to 7.70-8.00 is likely to occur. By the same token, if that low is tested successfully and a green close occurs next Friday, a new attempt at the 200-week MA line, currently at 10.90, would likely be seen. The probabilities favor the bears this week. CNX generated an uneventful week and a close in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning the traders are likely waiting to see some indication of what the Trump administration is going to do and how it will affect the commodity market before making any further decisions on direction. Nonetheless, it is important to note that the stock did go below last week's low and if the bulls are able to get above last week's high at 18.82 this week, a successful retest of the recent 17.02 low will have occurred. Above last week's high there is no intra-week resistance until 19.57-19.62 is reached. Further resistance is found at 19.76 and at 20.26 ($20 demilitarized zone) and then nothing until the recent 19-month high at 22.34. The probabilities favor the bulls and a resumption of the uptrend with a test of the 200-week MA, currently at 26.60, to be seen within the next 6-10 weeks. ENG ended up generating an uneventful week based on the weekly close that was only 2 points below the previous week's close. Nonetheless, using the daily chart the bulls were able to accomplish several positive things, starting with negating a sell signal that was given on Monday as well as successfully retesting the recent 1.96 intra-week low with a drop down to 2.02 on Monday and 2.16 on Friday. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2.43 is expected to be seen this week. Resistance will be found at 2.72, at 2.80 and at the recent multi-year high at 2.89. Decent support is found between 1.96 and 2.02. The fact that the bears have not been able to get control of the stock after the spike rally (something they had been able to do in the past) suggests the stock may be at the onset of a bull trend. FCEL made a new all-time weekly closing low at 1.70 on Friday but the previous intra-week low at 1.60 seen 4-week ago was not broken, meaning that the downtrend has not yet resumed in spite of a lower than expected earnings report. The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.70 is expected to be seen this week. The 1.70 level is considered a "general" support level and that means that if the bulls can hold above 1.60 and generate a green close next Friday, a bottom may be in place. As such, this coming week seems to be pivotal for the stock. Minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 2.05 and decent as well as pivotal at 2.30. Probabilities favor the bears but it is a pivotal week. FSLR was unable to follow through to the upside after last week's close near the highs of the week. The stock generated a red weekly close and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 34.10 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls have been able to establish a mid-term uptrend over the past 2 months and the bears did not do enough last week to diffuse it, meaning the probabilities still favor the bulls. Minor support is found at 34.10 and minor but likely indicative support is found at 33.02 that if broken would break the mid-term uptrend. Minor resistance is found at 35.52 and a bit stronger and likely short-term pivotal at the recent 36.41. Further but old resistance (from Feb2013) is found at 36.98 that is strengthened by the "general" resistance found at 37.00. In addition, there is a previous low weekly close from August 2013 at 36.72 that may be paid attention to by the traders, but not necessarily so as it is old and not as important as the previous low weekly close at 40.72 from just 2 years ago. If the bulls are able to generate a weekly close above 37.30, it would be a confirmation of the buy signal as well as confirmation of a major low in place and would suggest a rally up to "at least" $40 would occur. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but the mid-term trend is still up. MT made a new 17-month weekly closing high on Friday and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.30 will be seen this week. By the same token, the 17-month intra-week high at 8.83, seen 7 weeks ago, remains an obstacle the bulls must overcome. On a strong positive note, the 8.83 resistance does not represent any other resistance from the past, meaning that the probabilities are high the level will be broken. Minor support is found at 8.00 and a slightly bit stronger at 7.89. Further support is found at 7.49 and decent as well as pivotal at 7.25. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls and the 11-month uptrend continuing with the $10 objective. X generated a positive reversal on the weekly chart, having made a new 7-week low but then closing in the green. The stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly better chance of going below last week's low at 31.80 than above last week's high at 35.30 but then again, the positive reversal does give the bulls a slightly edge. Either way, the longer term chart is showing a bullish flag formation that strongly favors the bulls, meaning that the stock could fall down to $30 and still offer a high probability of the uptrend taking the stock higher toward the $47-$50 level this year. The only question seems to be the short-term outlook for the stock with 30.24 and 37.41 being the important parameters at this time. XOM got down to decent to perhaps even strong intra-week support between 84.70 and 85.00 with a drop this past week to 84.59 and reversing direction to close slightly below the middle of the week's trading range. It is evident that this coming week is pivotal for the stock because having dropped down to that level of support, if further downside occurs, the bears will take control for the mid-term. By the same token, if the bulls can take the stock above last week's high at 87.41 some recovery will occur. The decision on direction may come down to whether Tillerson (the CEO of the company) will be confirmed as Secretary of State or not. ZIOP generated a red weekly close on Friday, making last week's close at 6.04 into a successful retest of the 200-week MA that was broken to the downside 3 weeks prior. The successful retest of the line gives a high probability to the stock now going back to test the $5 level and opens the door for a resumption of the downtrend with a $4 objective. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, having made a new 13-day low and then turning around to close in the green and on the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside with a 5.92-5.94 objective. Nonetheless, based on the weekly chart, such a rally should be used to liquidate the positions and wait for further news before considering re-purchasing the stock.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .141 (new price 170). 2) ZIOP - Averaged long at 5.92 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 5.15. Stock closed on Friday at 5.59. 3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.33. 4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.37. 5) MT - Averaged long at 6.244 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 6.18. Stock closed on Friday at 8.19. 6) FSLR - Averaged long at 41.758 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 34.75. 7) XOM - Averaged long at 88.845 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 84.49. Stock closed on Friday at 85.89. 8) IBM - Liquidated at 169.95. Shorted at 168.73. Loss on the trade of $122 per 100 shares plus commissions. 9) CLF - Purchased at 9.15. Stop loss at 7.69. Stock closed on Friday at 8.73. 10) CNX - Averaged long at 20.05. Stop loss is at 16.65. Stock closed on Friday at 18.28. 11) X - Purchased at 33.86. Liquidated at 32.65. Loss on the trade of $121 per 100 shares plus commissions. 12) X - Purchased at 33.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.38. 13) NFLX - Shorted at 132.77. Covered shorts at 133.29. Loss on the trade of $52 per 100 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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