Issue #514 ![]() Feb 12, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Runaway Freight Train Time. New All-Time Highs Made!
DOW Friday closing price - 20269
The DOW resumed the uptrend after a 1-week pause to evaluate Trump's misstep on the Muslim ban. The index closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 20298 is expected to be seen.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW may show some "general" resistance around the 20300 but there is no previous resistance above.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor but likely pivotal support at the 20000 demilitarized zone (19970-20030). Below that, there is minor support at 19831 and minor to perhaps decent as well as pivotal at 19784. Further support is minor at 19748, minor at 19718 and minor to perhaps decent as well as short-term pivotal at 19677.
With the new all-time highs made, the DOW is now well on its way to accomplish the same type of rally above a major level (20,000) before a correction of consequence occurred, as was seen the previous 3 occasions when the index broke above the same type of major level at 10,000. The 3 rallies accomplished moves of 726 points, 753 points and 1365 points. The 1365 point rally was the very first time that the index broke 10,000, meaning that the probabilities favor such a rally (or similar) occurring this time. It is important to mention that in all 3 occasions, the rallies were straight up from the moment the level was broken, meaning no pull backs to the level broken were seen the first month.
The level to watch this week in the DOW will be the "general" resistance found between 20,300 and 20,330 as that is the "only" resistance area where the bears might gather around to defend. If the bulls can get index above 20,330 the bears are likely to give up and go into "hibernation" until the next psychological resistance area is reached.
Probabilities strongly favor the bulls in the DOW this week as there are economic or earnings reports of consequence or possibly catalytic scheduled this week. Without some unexpected news coming out, it is "up, up, and away" for the time being.
SPX Friday closing price - 2316
The SPX made a new all-time weekly closing high on Friday and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2319 will be seen this week. The follow through seen confirmed the breakout of the flag formation that offers a 2328 objective off of the daily chart and 2427 off of the weekly chart.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX may show "general" resistance at 2330 but there is no previous resistance above.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX will now show minor but pivotal support at 2285. Below that level, minor support is found at 2271 and minor to perhaps decent but also short-term pivotal at 2267. On a daily closing basis though, important support will be found at 2298 (top of the flag).
The flag formation on the daily chart of the SPX shows a 2328 objective and the 2330 level could be considered "general" resistance, meaning that the traders may keep their attention on the index this week as a guideline as to how much of a rally is to occur. It is evident that if the 2330 level is broken that the index will have "open air" above and the traders will then target the flag formation objective of the weekly chart at 2427.
Probabilities strongly favor the bulls in the SPX but the 2330 level on an intra-day basis is seen as possible resistance and the 2298 level on a daily closing basis as support.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5734
The NASDAQ made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5743 will be seen this week. The index has now broken the "general" resistance between 5700 and 5730, meaning that there is open air above.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ has no resistance close by. Psychological resistance is likely to be found at the 6000 level.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ now shows minor but short-term pivotal support at 5649. Below that level, there is very minor support at 5616 and minor to perhaps decent but short-term pivotal at 5576.
As far as the market rally is concerned, the NASDAQ is now running on a par with the other indexes, meaning that it is now a general rally and not one specifically targeted to any one industry or index. With no resistance above until psychological at 6000, the probabilities strongly favor an additional 4.3% rally before selling interest is found. Such a rally is certainly viable given that the same rally in the DOW would place that index at 21214, which is a level that is fits in with the history of that index as far as a major level (20,000) being broken for the first time.
Probabilities strongly favor the bulls in the NASDAQ with the only level of support of any consequence to be watched being at 5649.
The "runaway freight train" gathered momentum once again after the traders shrugged off the Trump misstep on the Muslim ban and renewed the uptrend. With no possibly catalytic economic or earnings reports scheduled for this week the bulls are in full control and with "open air" above the runaway freight train is not likely to find any brakes this week. In addition, Trump started talking this past week about tax cuts and that is the one thing the traders are truly excited about, meaning that until those are known, the anticipation of them will likely keep the rally heading strongly higher. By the same token and with a note of concern, once those tax cuts are known the market will be at risk of a correction.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
The market is now moving and taking advantage at this time of this "runaway freight train" seems to be the way to go. There are 2 mentions this week, 1 from last week that did not get down to the desired entry point and 1 in a stock that I traded highly successfully last year and was in recently. There is also 1 mention on a held stock to add positions should a breakout occur (likely will). The market is still uncertain about what success the Trump Administration will have but the action last week suggests they have put that aside for now, especially given that Trump has now mentioned that a Tax cut as his next order of business.
NEW PURCHASES
INAP is showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the 2-week rally from $.80 cents up to $1.93 and the flag being the trading range seen the past 7 weeks between 1.93 and 1.48. A break above the top of the flag at 1.93 will offer an objective of 2.61.
INAP has spent a large portion of time "in the flag", given that the top of the flag is also where the 50-week and 200-day MA's are currently at. Those 2 lines have not been broken to the upside since September 2015 (17 months) and are therefore considered strong obstacles to overcome. In addition, the stock is showing a decent weekly close resistance at 1.99 that when broken would give a failure to follow through signal to the downside, suggesting a strong short-covering rally would occur.
From a fundamental perspective, INAP changed management in December and a new perspective on how to return the stock to the highs seen in 2015 up at 10.72 has been instituted. It should also be mentioned that in the year 2000 the stock traded as high as $1100.00, meaning that at one time this company was well regarded. If the new management can accomplish what they set out to do, this purchase could be a home run.
The only negative that I can find at this time is that INAP bulls have not been able to generate the breakout over the past 8 weeks but the MA's lines have been tested twice and the pullbacks from those retests did not break support, meaning that a breakout is now more likely to occur than not.
Purchases of INAP at 1.72 or lower and using a stop loss at 1.41 and having a 2.61 objective will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
CLB Friday Closing Price - 116.86
CLB has been in a zig-zag trading range (up one week and down the next) for the past 6 weeks with a slight downward bias, with red and green weeks being exchanged every week. With last week being a red week, the probabilities favor it being a green week, at least as far as the close next Friday. During the previous 9 weeks before that, the stock was in a strong uptrend with appreciation in value of 23.5% with a rally from 96.30 to 125.85, suggesting that the last 6 weeks have been mainly a correction from an overbought condition.
CLB closed in the lower half of the week's trading range on Friday, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 114.72 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock is now reaching a support level of consequence between 112.60 and 113.12 that is unlikely to be broken, especially considering that oil prices seem to be ready to break out and head up to the $60-$61 level.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, CLB shows minor to perhaps decent resistance between 119.41 and 120.72 and again and just a tiny bit stronger at 121.24 and then nothing until minor at 124.74. Above that level, decent resistance is found between 124.99 and 125.81 and then open air until 127.00.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, CLB shows minor to perhaps decent support at 115.18 and then decent between 112.60 and 113.12.
CLB is presently showing a double low on the daily closing chart between 115.52 and 115.71 as well as a double low on the intra-week chart at 114.72/114.82, suggesting that the former could be seen on an intra-week basis but the latter not likely to be seen as it would make it a multiple low level, meaning that the probabilities do not favor the bears being able to get below last week's low this week. Such an event would be seen as a strong positive by the traders and likely would bring new buying interest.
The chart of CLB does strongly suggest that the $125 level will be seen as long as nothing negative happens to the oil market. The $125 level has been a magnet on 9 different occasions over the past 2 years and is highly likely to still be a magnet at this time. By the same token, if oil does get above $55 and heads up to $60-$61, the 200-week MA in the stock, currently at $136, will become a magnet as well, given that the stock has been up to that line twice before with the first time being when oil was at $60 but the second time when it was at $50, meaning that it isn't difficult to see the stock getting there on this occasion.
Most importantly, the last 2 years when CLB has generated the rallies up to the MA line it has been in the period between March and April and with March only a couple of weeks away, it seems likely the same thing will be seen this year.
Purchases of CLB below 116.00 and using a stop loss at 112.45 and having at least a $125 objective will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, using a $136 objective, the risk/reward ratio would be a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.
My rating on the trade is a 4 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
PURCHASE ADDITIONS
BWA is showing a bullish flag formation with the top of the flag at 41.98. A break of the flag will offer a 49.79 objective.
Purchases of BWA on a 42.10 stop limit order and using a 40.65 stop close only stop loss and having a 49.79 objective will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio. This means that an additional purchase will only be made if the stock makes a new 56-week high above 41.98.
My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA bulls failed to follow through on the previous week's semi bullish accomplishments, having seen red all week except for a brief moment on the opening bell on Monday when the stock traded unchanged. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.45 is expected to be seen. The failure to follow through has to be considered a disappointment that is not likely to be undone before the earnings report on February 27th. Short-term pivotal support is found at 1.42 and then a bit stronger between 1.37 and 1.39. Minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.51 and then a bit stronger at 1.56. On a negative note, the stock built a bearish flag formation on the daily chart this past week with the flagpole being the drop from 1.66 to 1.45 and the flag the trading range the past 3 days up to 1.51. A break below the bottom of the flag at 1.45 would give a 1.31 objective. Probabilities favor sideways trading between 1.45 and 1.60 until the earnings report comes out but if support at 1.42 gets broken, the flag formation will likely cause the traders to short additional positions and would make 1.31 a viable target. BWA generated a new buy signal, having closed on Friday above the previous high weekly close at 41.10. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 41.65 is expected to be seen this week. If the bulls can get the stock above 41.98 this week, an additional buy signal will be given as well as a break of the top of a bullish flag formation that offers a 48.06 objective to be reached within a period of 5 weeks. The key to accomplishing the objective of the bullish flag would be the intra-week resistance at 44.35 that is a level that if broken offers "open air" above until the 200-week MA, currently at 48.25, is reached. To the downside, support is found at 40.25 and pivotal at last week's low at 39.70. The chart suggests that the bulls are now committed to the upside and that it needs to happen this week. I will be purchasing additional shares if a breakout occurs. The order is at 42.08 on a stop limit basis. Probabilities favor the bulls. CCJ generated a positive reversal week after a better than expected earnings report, having made a new 5-week low and then closing in the green and near the high of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.33 will be seen this week. Resistance above is found at the bottom of the gap between 12.56 and 11.42 and a bit more but minor at 11.52. Nonetheless, if the bulls can get the stock above 11.52 there is no resistance except minor at 11.98 and getting up to that level would probably mean the gap up at 12.56 would be targeted. Support is now decent as well as pivotal at 10.31/10.34 that if broken would negate the recent bullish uptrend. The weekly chart suggests that a rally up to 12.50-12.60 will occur but upon arrival at that level, new questions will surface regarding continuation of the uptrend. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. CLF made a new 28-month intra-week and weekly closing high on Friday and the stock closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above 11.70 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock closed above the 200-week MA, currently at 10.75, for the first time in 57 months and if the breakout is confirmed with another green close next Friday, it would suggest a new mid-term uptrend has begun. Nonetheless, there are some concerns this week given that the previous 28-month intra-week high is 11.70 and the stock stopped there and retreated $.90 cents from that level at the end of the week, meaning there is selling interest at that price. In addition, most stocks do not establish a break of such a long-term MA line the first time around, meaning that this coming week will be pivotal. Nonetheless, the positive is that the rally came off of a much better than expected earnings report, suggesting there is fundamental support for this breakout. The key is definitely the 11.70 level that if broken would suggest further upside will occur, as well as confirmation of the break above the MA line. If that happens, minor resistance will be found at 13.00 (from an old 8-year low weekly close) and then nothing until the 14.14 and 15.68, which represent newer previous low weekly closes. By the same token, above 11.70 there is no previous intra-week resistance until 18.33 is reached and that resistance is minor to possibly decent. Support will now be found at the 10.00 demilitarized zone (9.70-10.30) that if broken would be a negative. The stock gapped up off of the earnings report between 9.52 and 9.95 and given it was off of a fundamental change, the gap is viable and should not be closed, meaning that if 9.52 is seen again, consideration for taking profits should occur on the first rally thereafter. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week. CNX generated an inside week, failing to follow through to the downside below the previous week's low as expected. Nonetheless, the stock closed near the low of the week and further downside below last week's low at 16.90 is expected to be seen, If that does occur but the previous week's low at 16.13 is not broken, it could turn out to be the required/needed retest of that low and from which the mid-term uptrend could resume. Weekly close support remains decent and pivotal at 16.80 and 16.45, meaning that the bulls are committed to generating a green weekly close next Friday or the bears will have a strong chance of getting an edge. Minor intra-week support is found at 16.84 and again at 16.43 and decent as well as pivotal at 16.13. Resistance is minor at 17.59 and minor to decent but short-term pivotal at 17.85. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls but it is a pivotal week. ENG made a new 30-month intra-week high at 3.10 but ran into selling interest having gotten up to the 8-year 3-point trend line at that price and being pushed back to close in the lower half of the week's trading range and below the previous high weekly close at 2.88 from 3 weeks ago, suggesting that further downside below last week's low at 2.65 will be seen this week. It is evident that having reached what could now become the 4th point on the 8-year downtrend line that there will be a battle between bulls and bears this coming week given that the past 3 times when the line was reached (or began) that an immediate and decisive move down was seen. Nonetheless, it needs to be mentioned that on a weekly closing basis the trend line has been broken and confirmed (3 weeks in a row above the line) and with the green weekly close on Friday, it has also been successfully tested, suggesting that this time around the end result will be different. Pivotal resistance is now found at 3.10 and likely (but not necessarily) pivotal support is found at 2.50. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but given that the stock will likely trade below last week's low at some point this week, a new high (and break about the trend line) will likely take another week to accomplish. FCEL generated a positive reversal week, having made a new all-time low at 1.25 and then closing in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.50 is likely to be seen. This is the first positive weekly reversal seen in the last 8 months and suggests that finally some buying interest is being seen at this low price. The volume spiked up the last 2 days of the week, meaning that the reversal does have "some" legs to it. On an intra-week basis there is no resistance until the 2.00 level is reached but on a daily closing basis, some minor resistance is found at 1.75. The spike in volume does suggest this is at the very least a temporary low. Support is now decent at 1.25. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. FSLR had a positive week, having gone above the previous week's high and closing in the green which in turn confirms last week's positive reversal and successful retest of the 28.60 low seen in November. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 33.38 is expected to be seen. In addition and on the daily chart, the stock gave a buy signal, having closed above the most recent high daily close at 32.15. To the upside and on an intra-week basis, minor resistance is found at 33.49, minor to perhaps decent at 34.28, minor to decent at 35.52 and decent at 36.41. To the downside and on an intra-week basis, minor support is found at 30.85 and then minor to decent but likely short-term pivotal at 30.34. Intra-week support is minor at 31.11 and decent as well as short-term pivotal at 30.34. Probabilities now favor the stock rallying up to the 35.52 level where the next decision by the traders will likely have to be made. A rally above 36.41 would be a bullish statement. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but only as far as a rally up to 35.52. LVLT generated a negative week in which a drop down to the previous 2 spike intra-week highs at 57.08 and 56.66 occurred (dropped down to 56.92). The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low will be seen this week. Nonetheless, on the daily chart, the stock generated a positive reversal day on Friday and an additional green close on Friday, making Wednesday's close at 57.55 into what will likely become a successful retest of the previous spike daily closing high at 57.18, which in turn if confirmed with a rally above Thursday's high at 58.09 would suggest no further downside will be seen. Above 58.09 there is no resistance above until 59.24 and if that happens, the 2-week correction will likely be over. Minor to perhaps decent but short-term pivotal support is found at 56.92 and then minor but definitely longer term pivotal support is found at 56.13. Probabilities slightly favor the bears but the key word is "slightly". MT reported better than expected earnings on Friday and generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low but then turning around to close in the green and above the previous week's high. In addition and more importantly, the stock made a new 18-month intra-week and weekly closing high on Friday and closed on the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.84 will be seen this week. The next intra-week resistance level is found at 9.71 and given that the stock spiked up this week and rallied $1.17 from low to high, the probabilities favor that resistance level being reached this week. Intra-week support is now decent as well as pivotal at 7.67/7.70, meaning that the stop loss can now be raised to 7.57. Probabilities strongly favor further upside and a rally to the bottom of the $10 demilitarized zone. The 200-week MA is currently at 10.30 and that is a line that has not been broken to the upside in 9 years, meaning that it is unlikely that it will be broken at this time (the first time). As such, consideration can be given to taking profits on any rally up to 9.70-10.30 and repurchasing the stock on a correction (likely back down to around 8.45). Then again, with the earnings report out and the stock on a strong bull run, if the bulls can get and close above 10.30 next Friday, re-evaluation of the chart will be the thing to do. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls this week. X made a new 26-month weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 38.21 will be seen this week. The stock broke out of a bullish flag formation on the weekly closing chart that offers an objective of 52.44 to be reached within 6 weeks. On the intra-week chart the top of the flag there has not yet been broken as it is at 39.14 but if it is broken this week (likely) the same objective will be given. Minor to perhaps decent intra-week resistance is found at 39.14 and then nothing until minor to perhaps resistance is found at 42.25 and then decent at 46.55. On a weekly closing basis though, resistance is decent at the $40 demilitarized zone, meaning that if next Friday the stock closes above 40.30 that a rally up to 46.55 would likely occur (45.19 on a weekly closing basis) and if that level is broken, the flag objective of $52 would become a probability and not a possibility. |
1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .125 (new price 1.50). 2) HON - Shorted at 119.95. Covered shorts at 120.35. Loss on the trade of $40 per 100 shares plus comissions. 3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.81. 4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.47. 5) MT - Averaged long at 6.244 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 7.57. Stock closed on Friday at 8.76. 6) FSLR - Purchased at 30.84. Averaged long at 39.938 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 32.85. 7) XOM - Liquidated at 81.99. Purchased at 83.08. Loss on the trade of $108 per 100 shares plus commissions. 8) LVLT - Purchased at 59.11. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 57.74. 9) CLF - Averaged long at 9.06. Stop loss at 9.52. Stock closed on Friday at 11.15. 10) CNX - Averaged long at 20.05. Stop loss now at 16.03. Stock closed on Friday at 17.02. 11) X - Purchased at 33.03. Stop loss now at 33.39. Stock closed on Friday at 37.60. 12) BWA - Purchased at 39.97. Averaged long at 40.42 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 39.60. Stock closed on Friday at 41.63. 13) CCJ - Purchased at 10.55 and at 10.39. Averaged long at 10.47. Stop loss at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.13. 14) DIOD - Purchased at 25.00. Liquidated at 24.43. Loss on the trade of $57 per 100 shares plus commissions.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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