Issue #513
Feb 5, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Trump Actions Unsettle Market!

DOW Friday closing price - 20071

The DOW ended up having an inside week with no follow through to the upside as was expected, likely due to uncertainty caused by some of Trump's executive actions that created fear in the market. Nonetheless, the index closed on the highs of the week on Friday and further upside above last week's high at 20081 is expected to be seen this week. If that occurs, the probabilities favor resumption of the uptrend after a 1 week pause, given that the all-time high at 20125 is only 44 points above last week's high.

The DOW gave a failure to follow through signal on Tuesday on the daily closing chart, having closed below the previous all-time high daily close at 19974 and confirming the failure with 2 additional closes in a row below that level (on Wednesday and Thursday). Nonetheless, the failure signal was negated on Friday after a better than expected Jobs report and no further negatives from the Trump Administration. If the bulls can generate a new all-time high this week, it will all be forgotten and the uptrend will resume.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW shows minor resistance at the all-time high at 20125. Above that level, there is no resistance other than perhaps general resistance at 20,300.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows very minor support at 19831 and minor to perhaps decent as well as pivotal at 19784. Below that level there is very minor support at 19748, minor at 19718 and minor to perhaps decent as well as short-term pivotal at 19677. Below that level there is no support until 19062.

The chart picture of the DOW remains bullish but the errors that are occurring in the Trump Administration are starting to shake the confidence of the traders, meaning that fulfilling the chart picture is beginning to depend more on fundamental and basic management of the nation than on anything else.

Nonetheless, if no new missteps occur this week, the DOW should continue higher with the first objective being the general resistance at 20300. Having closed above the 20000 demilitarized zone, the index should not see any drops below 19970 this week. Probabilities favor the bulls.

SPX Friday closing price - 2297

The SPX made a new all-time weekly closing high on Friday and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2298 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bullish flag formation that was in place the previous week was weakened when the index traded below the previous all-time intra-week high at 2282, likely meaning that the additional upside that was expected may be tempered with caution.

The SPX fell short of making a new all-time intra-week high by 2 points (2298 vs all-time 2300) but that should be taken care of first thing on Monday, if and when no new negatives out of the Trump Administration come out over the weekend.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows minor resistance at 2300 and then no resistance above other than perhaps general resistance at 2330.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX will now show very minor support at 2271 and minor to perhaps decent but also short-term pivotal at 2267. Below that level, the index shows very minor support at 2258, minor at 2254, at 2248 and minor to decent as well as short-term pivotal support at 2233. Below that, there is no support until minor but likely longer term pivotal support is found at 2187.

On Monday, the SPX closed the runaway gap that has been generated the previous week between 2284 and 2288. This was caused by the worries created by the Trump Administration's mismanagement of the travel ban. Nonetheless, when no follow through was seen on Tuesday to the weakness, the bulls were able to reinstate the gap on Friday (gap between 2283 and 2287), meaning that if a new all-time high is made on Monday and is confirmed on Tuesday, the action seen last week will be erased from the minds of the traders. By the same token, a second closure of the runaway gap, followed by a break below 2267 will be seen as a strong negative.

The probabilities favor the SPX resuming the uptrend and making a new all-time high.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5666

The NASDAQ made a new all-time weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5669 will be seen this week. The index failed to make a new all-time intra-week high but having closed on the highs of the week and only 3 points from the all-time intra-week high, probabilities strongly favor that occurring on Monday.

The NASDAQ has now received the bulk of the important earnings reports in the index, with AAPL and AMZN reporting this past week. The AAPL report was better than expected but AMZN disappointed (fell 3.6%). Nonetheless, the drop of price in AMZN was not sufficient to prevent the index from closing on the highs of the week. With no important earnings reports left, the index will be moving based on what the overall market does.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ shows minor resistance at the all-time high at 5669. Above that level, there is no resistance except perhaps general resistance at 5700.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ now shows very minor support at 5616 and minor to perhaps decent but short-term pivotal at 5576. Below that level, there is minor support at 5522 and minor and likely short-term pivotal support at 5496. Below that level, there is very minor support at 5426 and minor to decent but mid-term pivotal at 5371.

The NASDAQ is not likely to continue its leadership of the indexes as the Tech sector has reported earnings and now the traders will likely key on the overall market evenly, based on what the Trump Administration does. Nonetheless, Monday could be an important day since the runaway gap 5606 and 5634 was closed last week. With the index closing on the highs of the week, if the index gaps up on Monday, especially above the all-time high at 5669, the weakness seen this past week will be erased from the memories of the traders.

By the same token, the weakness seen last week in the NASDAQ has now set up a chart situation where a drop below last week's low at 5576 would offer a negative signal that would suggest the index will not continue its upward trend. As it is, the bottom of the 5700 demilitarized zone (5670 to 5730) has been reached, meaning that any negative signal this coming week would likely have strong and perhaps lasting repercussions regarding continuation of the uptrend.

Probabilities favor the bulls in the NASDAQ this week.


The market got a strong wake-up call this past week when negative action in the indexes occurred off of the mismanagement by the Trump Administration of the Muslim ban. The traders were able to shrug it off by the end of the week but caution, rather than wild abandon (runaway freight train), now seems to be "the word". Volatility did increase as the VIX went from a 32-month low at 10.30 seen a week ago Friday up to 12.90 seen on Wednesday. Nonetheless, by the end of the week the VIX was back down to 10.72, meaning that the traders were willing to forget the error made by Trump and give him another chance.

There are no economic reports of consequence scheduled for this week and the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter have now finished, meaning that there are no scheduled catalysts on the immediate horizon. As such, probabilities favor resumption of the uptrend after a 1-week pause. Nonetheless, the traders have now been put on notice that the Trump Administration is as likely to hurt the market as help it and that there will be no advance notice of it. Volatility should become the standard now.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There is 1 new mention this week in a stock I mentioned in the message board a couple of weeks ago. There is also 1 mention on a held stock to add positions should a breakout occur. The market is still uncertain about what success the Trump Administration is going to have, especially after the mismanagement errors caused by the Muslim ban. Nonetheless, if no new negative occurred this weekend and the bulls are able to make new highs in the indexes and in this particular held stock, then the probabilities will once again favor the bulls.

NEW PURCHASES

INAP is showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the 2-week rally from $.80 cents up to $1.93 and the flag being the trading range seen the past 7 weeks between 1.93 and 1.48. A break above the top of the flag at 1.93 will offer an objective of 2.61.

INAP has spent a large portion of time "in the flag", given that the top of the flag is also where the 50-week and 200-day MA's are currently at. Those 2 lines have not been broken to the upside since September 2015 (17 months) and are therefore considered strong obstacles to overcome. In addition, the stock is showing a decent weekly close resistance at 1.99 that when broken would give a failure to follow through signal to the downside, suggesting a strong short-covering rally would occur.

From a fundamental perspective, INAP changed management in December and a new perspective on how to return the stock to the highs seen in 2015 up at 10.72 has been instituted. It should also be mentioned that in the year 2000 the stock traded as high as $1100.00, meaning that at one time this company was well regarded. If the new management can accomplish what they set out to do, this purchase could be a home run.

The only negative that I can find at this time is that INAP bulls have not been able to generate the breakout over the past 7 weeks but the MA's lines have been tested twice and the pullbacks from those retests did not break support, meaning that a breakout is now more likely to occur than not.

Purchases of INAP at 1.56 and using a stop loss at 1.41 and having a 2.61 objective will offer a 7-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

PURCHASE ADDITIONS

BWA is showing a bullish flag formation with the top of the flag at 41.98. A break of the flag will offer a 49.79 objective.

Purchases of BWA on a 42.10 stop limit order and using a 40.65 stop close only stop loss and having a 49.79 objective will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio. This means that an additional purchase will only be made if the stock makes a new 56-week high above 41.98.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2008: Profit of $14,704 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2009: Profit of $7,523 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2010: Profit of $24,045 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2011: Profit of $3,616 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2012: Profit of $3,399 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2013: Profit of $15,886 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2014: Profit of $21,221 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2015: Profit of $19,190 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Status of account for 2016: Loss of $15,134 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.

Status of account for 2017, as of 1/1

Profit of $0 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses)

Closed out profitable trades for January per 100 shares per mention (after commission)

NONE

Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.

ZIOP (long) $91

Total Profit for January, per 100 shares and after commissions $91

Closed out losing trades for January per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)

AAPL (short) $164
IBM (short) $136
FB (short) $221
X (long) $135
CVX (long) $368
NFLX (short) $66

Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.

FB (short) $844
LVLT (short) $110

Total Loss for January, per 100 shares, including commissions $2044

Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 1/30

LVLT (long) $235

Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.

ENG $98
CNX (long) $14
CLF (long) $72
MT (long) $245
ARNA (long) $48

Total $477

Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 1/30

X (long) $32
BWA (long) $4

Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.

XOM (long) $651
FSLR (long) $450
\ FCEL (long) $8

Total $1145

Status of trades for month of January per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.

Loss of $2621

Status of account/portfolio for 2011, as of 1/30

Loss of $2621 using 100 shares traded per mention.



Updates on Held Stocks

ARNA generated the highest intra-week and weekly closing high in 3 months and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.66 will be seen. A buy signal was given on both the daily and weekly closing charts, having closed above 1.53 and 1.64 respectively. The stock closed above the 200-day MA and 50-week MA on Friday, both currently at 1.62, which is a line that has not been broken since October of last year. The 200-day MA has been broken twice in the past 8 months (once for 9 days and once for 16 days) and the 50-week MA has only been broken once during that period of time and then only for 1 week, meaning that confirmation of the break is required. On both MA lines, confirmation would be a break above 1.92. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.67 that if broken would suggest a rally up to at least the 1.82 level. Longer term pivotal resistance is found at 1.92 that if broken would be a strong indicator that the downtrend has been broken and that a bottom has been found. A break above 1.92 would offer a rally up to the next decent resistance level at 2.65. Short-term indicative support is now found at 1.60 that if broken would bring the selling interest back. Probabilities now favor the bulls.

BWA had an uneventful week but having gone above the previous week's high and generating a green weekly close, the bulls remained in control. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning that neither the bulls nor bears have a decided edge. The company reports earnings next Thursday morning and that will likely be the catalyst for movement. Resistance is the top of the bullish flag formation at 41.98 and support is the bottom of the flag at 38.90. Probabilities favor the stock trading within that range the first 3 days of the week and then breaking out or breaking down. Chart suggest the former is the most likely scenario.

CCJ received a negative piece of news regarding a shipment cancelation notice and dropped 19% from high to low this past week. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 10.50 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock has been strongly supported the past 4 weeks and has seen increased volatility, suggesting a change of trend is taking place, probably because commodities are garnering new attention under the Trump Presidency. Intra-week support is minor to decent between 10.31 and 10.41 that is likely to hold up, especially considering that after the negative news came out on Wednesday, the bears were only able to push the stock down from 11.02 to 10.50 on Thursday and were unable to push it lower at all on Friday. Further support on a daily closing basis is found at the 200-day MA, currently at 10.23. Simply stated, the news is now likely factored into price and it is highly unlikely much further downside will be seen. Minor resistance is found at 11.05 and just a tiny bit stronger at 11.25 and then nothing until 12.42. The stock gapped down on the news from 12.56 to 11.42 and if the gap is closed, the sell pressure will likely disappear. Probabilities favor slight weakness at the beginning of the week with a drop down to 10.31 and then recovery by the end of the week.

CLF had an uneventful week, having traded within the trading range seen the past 7 weeks between 8.28 and 9.99. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, also suggesting that neither the bulls nor the bears have a decided edge for this week. Like with BWA, the company reports earnings on Thursday morning and it is likely the traders will take their queue on direction based on the report. To the downside, minor support is found at 8.45 and short-term pivotal support at 8.28. To the upside, short-term pivotal resistance is found at 9.30 that if broken would suggest the recent sell pressure will ebb. Further resistance is found at 9.42, a bit stronger between 9.99 and 10.14 and decent at 10.90. The mid-term uptrend remains intact, meaning the bulls have a slight edge as far as probabilities are concerned.

CNX reported a disappointing earnings report and made a new 20-week intra-week low immediately thereafter. Nonetheless, the day after the earnings report, the SPX Ratings Agency increased their rating on the company to a B+ (from a B) and the bears were unable to follow through to the downside, with the stock rallying from Tuesday's low at 16.13 to a high of 17.33 seen on Friday. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 16.13 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bears were unable to close the stock below the 2 low weekly closes of the past 6 months at 16.80 and 16.45, meaning that the mid-term uptrend has not been broken. In addition, the stock got down to both the 50 and 100 week MA's, both currently at 16.35, but did not break those lines on a weekly closing basis, also suggesting that the weakness seen probably has a very short life. On a negative note though, right after the earnings report the stock broke the 200-day MA, currently at 17.37, and that break has not yet been negated, meaning that the sell interest is likely to continue at the beginning of the week. The MA will be the key to the stock this week because if the bulls can generate a confirmed close above the line any 2 days in a row this week, the sell pressure will likely go away. On an intra-week basis there is no resistance until 18.77 is reached. As such, the bulls will need to close the stock above 17.41 to say they accomplished a positive. Support is decent at 16.13/16.14 and decent again at 15.41. Though the probabilities slightly favor the bears and a break below last week's low, the double low at 16.14/16.13 as well as the bounce seen after the rating upgrade gives the bulls a 50-50 chance of accomplishing something positive this week.

DIOD generated a second positive reversal week in a row, having made a new 9-week low but then closing in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 25.47 will be seen. The stock also generated a positive reversal the previous week but no follow through was seen. Nonetheless, the previous week the stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range and this week it closed on the highs of the week, suggesting this reversal will likely "bear fruits". The bullish flag formation remains in place but with the lower part of the flag now being at last week's low at 24.45, the objective of the flag (should the top of the flag at 27.17 get broken) is now 30.34. The stock did give a buy signal on the daily closing chart on Friday and if confirmed with a rally above 26.21, the recent high at 27.17 would then likely be tested and probably broken. Support is now decent as well as pivotal at 24.48/24.45 where a double low is now in place. Stop losses should now be placed at 24.35.

ENG bulls failed to follow through on the previous week's strong rally and close near the highs of the week and generated an uneventful inside week but with a close near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.64 will be seen this week. The stock is finding selling interest as it nears the 3.00 level and likely will find even more as the 3-point 7-year trendline, currently at 3.15, is reached. Minor support is found at 2.64 and then nothing until minor again at 2.51. Minor resistance is found at 2.89 and then slightly stronger at 2.96. Probabilities favor a bit more of the same sideways trading being seen the next couple of weeks with 2.50 as the bottom of the trading range and 3.00 as the top.

FCEL continued the slide down, having made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing low at 1.40. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below 1.40 is expected to be seen. The stock now shows 16 days in a row of lower highs than the previous day and until that trend ends, the bears will remain in "total" control.

FSLR generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 8-week low at 30.34 and then turning around to close in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 32.28 will be seen this week. If the stock does go above last week's high, last week's low will become a required successful retest of the 28.60 low seen in November. The stock came within 2 points of generating a new sell signal on the monthly closing chart, having dropped down to 30.34 on Tuesday (the last day of the month) and the 46-month low being 30.32. To the upside and on an intra-week basis, minor resistance is found at 33.49, minor to perhaps decent at 34.28, minor to decent at 35.52 and decent at 36.41. To the downside and on an intra-week basis, minor support is found at 30.85 and then minor to decent but likely short-term pivotal at 30.34. A rally above 32.38 this week will likely cause the sell pressure to ebb and likely help generate a rally up to the 34.28 level. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

LVLT generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 16+-year high and then going below the previous week's low and closing in the red. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 58.42 is expected to be seen. The likely reason for the negative reversal was the psychological resistance at the $60 demilitarized zone. Having gotten up to 60.12 but with the earnings report due on this coming Wednesday after the market close, the bulls were not able to generate additional buying interest. By the same token, there was no follow through to the downside on Friday after Thursdays low for the week and as such, the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the upside. It is unlikely that anything of consequence will happen in either direction until after the earnings report. Intra-week support is found at 58.42 and pivotal at 57.92. Minor resistance at 59.30, a bit stronger at 59.84 and decent at 60.12. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls due to the strong uptrend in place.

MT generated a second red close week in a row but then only by 20 points (2.5%) and without any support levels (even minor ones) breaking. As such, it can be said it was an uneventful week. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning direction for the week will likely be generated by what the commodity market does. The midterm trend remains bullish but the stock has been trading sideways for the past 9 weeks and will likely remain that way until more news about inflation and infra-structure spending comes out. Minor but likely short-term pivotal support is found at 7.70 and then decent and pivotal at 7.25. Minor resistance is found at 8.17, a bit stronger and short-term pivotal at 8.40 and decent and longer term pivotal at 8.83. Probabilities favor the stock trading another week between 7.70 and 8.30.

X generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 9-week low and then turning around to close in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 34.92 will be seen this week. The company reported earnings this past week and though they were better than expected the stock sold off and closed on the lows of the day on Wednesday. Nonetheless, on Thursday, Bank of America upgraded the stock from neutral to buy causing the stock to rally and make the high of the week. Adding to all of this, the low for the week was 30.71 and that is only 14 points above an important intra-week support at 30.57, suggesting that the chart is now fulfilled regarding a retest of support. Intra-week resistance is found at last week's high at 34.92 that if broken would mean the 7-week downtrend is over and that an attempt to resume the uptrend would begin. Intra-week support is found at 32.93, at 31.80 and at 31.31. Probabilities favor the stock showing some weakness on Monday with a drop down to at least 32.93 but then turning around and having a strong week.

XOM made a new 17-week low and generated the 7th red weekly close in a row after the class action suit of the employees started. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 82.54 will be seen. On a small positive note though, the last 2 days of the week were green closes after the stock got down into an area of longer term support importance between 82.29 and 82.76, having gotten down to 82.55 on Wednesday. The 2 green daily closes suggest that there is some buying interest at this level and that it is not likely the stock will continue lower unless some new problems arise or oil turns back down. The stock closed on the high of the day on Friday and further upside above Friday's high at 83.72 is expected to be seen. There is very little resistance above until 85.10 is reached and it is likely the traders will push the stock up to that level sometime this week. Nonetheless, what happens there will likely dictate what happens longer term. Pivotal resistance is found at 85.96 that if broken would suggest the worse is over and that the 200-day MA, currently at 88.20 will be visited. Support is found at 82.76, at 82.55 and at 82.29. If 82.29 is broken, the probabilities would strongly favor the $78-$80 level being reached. Probabilities are about even for this week.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .129 (new price 1.55).

2) ZIOP - Liquidated at 5.91. Averaged long at 5.92. Loss on the trade of $2 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.

3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.88.

4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.48.

5) MT - Averaged long at 6.244 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 6.18. Stock closed on Friday at 8.12.

6) FSLR - Averaged long at 41.758 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 31.48.

7) XOM - Averaged long at 88.845 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 84.49. Stock closed on Friday at 85.51.

8) LVLT - Purchased at 59.11. Stop loss at 58.65. Stock closed on Friday at 59.61.

9) CLF - Purchased at 8.97. Averaged long at 9.06. Stop loss at 7.69. Stock closed on Friday at 9.02.

10) CNX - Averaged long at 20.05. Stop loss is at 16.65. Stock closed on Friday at 19.00.

11) X - Purchased at 33.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.77.

12) BWA - Purchased at 40.87. Stop loss at 39.20. Stock closed on Friday at 40.40.

13) CVX - Purchased at 117.15. Liquidated at 113.61. Loss on the trade of $354 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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