Issue #519
Mar 19, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Rate Increase by Fed. No Reaction! Indexes Lulled Asleep?

DOW Friday closing price - 20914

The DOW generated a non-indicative trading week with neither the uptrend resuming (new highs) nor the possible start of a correction being confirmed (break below the previous week's low). The index closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 21000 will be seen this week.

The DOW has lost the speculative momentum that was propelling it higher, meaning that now the index is susceptible to news and with the Fed raising interest rates this past week and no economic reports of consequence due out for another couple of weeks, attention will all now be placed on Trump's Administration ability to implement the platform they won with. Presently, it is the Obamacare repeal and replace bill that was presented this past week. Nonetheless, that bill seems destined to fail unless changed and as such, the bulls will have a difficult chore trying to make new highs.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor resistance at 21000 and minor to perhaps decent at 21169. Above that level, there may be some "general" resistance at 21,300.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor to perhaps decent, as well as short-term pivotal support at 20,777. Below that level, there is minor support at 20532 and then nothing until the 20000 demilitarized zone (19970-20030) is reached. Further support is found at 19831 and minor to perhaps decent as well as pivotal at 19784.

In December, when the DOW first reached the 20000 demilitarized zone, it then proceeded to trade sideways for a period 5 weeks before the uptrend resumed. The situation is similar right now as all the economic and earnings news of importance is out and as such, the probabilities favor the index trading sideways as the traders await further news. By the same token, at 20000 the index had some history that not only suggested and likely helped the bulls take the index higher by somewhere between 729 and 1365 points above that important level. History now leans in favor of the bears (not the bulls) since the index has now rallied 1169 points above 20000, meaning that more fundamental help is now needed now than was needed at that major psychological level.

Though the probabilities favor the DOW "edging" higher this week if there are no negative reports, the probabilities are starting to favor the bears overall as it is highly unlikely that the Trump Administration will be able to implement their platform without some not-as-desired changes. Any drop below the general support at 20700 is likely to mean a correction has started.

SPX Friday closing price - 2378

The SPX also generated a non-indicative week (like the DOW) with neither the uptrend resuming (new all-time highs) nor the start of a correction being confirmed (break below the previous week's low). The index closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2390 will be seen this week.

On a negative note though, the SPX traded on Friday above the previous all-time high weekly close at 2383 (got up to 2385 at 2:00pm) but the bulls were unable to hold above that level, having seen more selling than buying come in the last 90 minutes of trading. With the NASDAQ being able to make a new all-time high weekly close but the DOW not even get up intra-week to its all-time weekly close, the failure of the SPX does tilt the probabilities to the side of the bears of a top having been formed at 2400.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows minor resistance at 2390 and minor to perhaps decent at 2400. Above that level, there is possible general resistance at 2430.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows minor support at 2358 and minor to perhaps decent as well as short-term pivotal support at 2352/2354. Below that level, there is minor support at 2285 and likely short-term pivotal at 2267/2271. On a daily closing basis though, important support will be found at 2298 (top of the flag).

Over the past couple of years, the SPX has been more of a referee than the leader of the market, deciding what the short-term possibilities are when mixed signals are given between the DOW and the NASDAQ. It was expected that this past week the index would be the key, given that the economic report due out was more financial in nature than anything else. The index did not lead in either direction after the report came out, suggesting the rate increase was not a factor. Nonetheless, at the end of the week when everything was mostly "said and done", the index did generate a mini bear signal on Friday when it was unable to generate a new all-time high weekly close in spite of trading above it just 90 minutes before the close of trading. It does suggest that the bulls now "require" positive news to continue the uptrend.

Probabilities favor the SPX trading sideways this week with a very slight upside bias.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5900

The NASDAQ made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high on Friday and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5912 will be seen this week.

The NASDAQ outperformed the other indexes this past week, having gone up .7% versus .3% for the SPX and .1% for the DOW, likely meaning that except for speculative buying, the overall desire to purchase stocks is declining.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ now shows minor resistance at 5912. Above that level there is no resistance until psychological resistance is found at the 6000 demilitarized zone (5970-6030).

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ now shows very minor support at 5831, minor at 5812 and minor but short-term pivotal support at 5800. Below that level, there is very minor support at 5649 and again at 5616 and minor to perhaps decent but short-term pivotal at 5576.

The NASDAQ bulls were unable to generate a convincing new intra-week high given that the previous high at 5911 was only broken by 1 point. In addition, for the last 3 days of the week the index got up to at least 5911 but the bulls were unable to break above it except on Friday and even then it was not a convincing break, meaning that selling interest of some consequence is being seen at this level. In fact, if there is no follow through to the upside next week and the index ends up going below last week's low at 5831 this coming week, a double top will have been formed on the weekly chart. The probabilities do not favor that scenario since there is now a multiple top on the daily chart, but it does need to be mentioned since the weekly chart does take precedence.

The NASDAQ did "lead the parade" this past week, having made a new all-time weekly closing high, and the probabilities favor more being seen this week with the possible upside objective being 5970 (bottom of the demilitarized zone). Nonetheless, the 6000 demilitarized zone is only 1.3% higher than Friday's close and it is highly unlikely that level will be breached without some major fundamental positive occurring, suggesting that the upside is now limited and the downside will begin to beckon.

Probabilities favor the bulls in the NASDAQ this week but "time is running out".


The momentum to the upside is over and now the bulls need positive fundamental news to gain further positive motion of any consequence. The Trump platform, which is what generated the 18% rally seen since November, is starting to have problems and has begun to suffer setbacks that if nothing else are likely to extend the time period for the benefits to begin (if passed). As such, the probabilities favor a relatively uneventful week with mostly sideways action. By the same token, the bulls are the ones at risk since the market is now fragile and more prone to setbacks than up drafts since the momentum had ended.

There are no economic reports of consequence this week other than Durable Goods on Friday, but that report is unlikely to have any effect. Oil is trading below $50 and more likely to go down than up, meaning it is unlikely to help the index market.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I have no new mentions this week except the purchase mention from last week is still valid.

Traders are unlikely to do much this week since they didn't react negatively or positively to the Fed rate hike. Waiting for "news" seems to be the scenario in play right now. As such, new trades don't make much sense this week as the money is more likely to idle than to work for the portfolio.

PURCHASES

CLB Friday Closing Price - 110.75

CLB is more sensitive to the price of oil than it is to the index market and the price of oil took a tumble the previous week and did not negate the break this past week or reach a level of previous support, suggesnting there is further downside to be seen. Oil dropped about 14.3% in value from $54.94 to $47.09, gave a failure signal, and confirmed the failure with a second close below 49.64 on Friday. Nonetheless, oil rallied this past week to close slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a bit more upside than downside will be seen this week (backing and filling). By the same token, there is no previous support of consequence until the $44-$45 level is reached, suggesting that after a small pause that further downside will be seen.

CLB reacted negatively to the oil fall, dropping from 119.98 to last week's low at 107.16. The stock closed an open gap at 107.34 and bounced, suggesting some of the traders believed that closure of the gap was the "only" downside the stock was targeted to do. Nonetheless, the chart suggests differently and after a week of trying to rally back up but likely failing, it is probable that the stock will renew the downdraft and reache the levels of support below that are more likely to offer "real" buying interest than what is seen off of a bounce.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, CLB shows minor to decent support at 106.92, at 105.49, at 102.50 and at 102.29. On a weekly closing basis though, there is minor to decent support at 104.76 and decent between 103.56 and 104.11.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, CLB shows minor resistance at 116. 49, minor to perhaps decent between 118.03 and 118.87.

It is not likely that oil will fall below $44, meaning that another $5 drop is probably the most that it could drop. Though the probabilities do not favor oil resuming the uptrend at this time, it is probable that it will be trading between $44 and $54 for the next few months with the $50 being a repeatedly seen pivot point. As such, CLB is also likely trade in a similar trading range between $103 and $118, meaning it should be "traded" within those parameters.

CLB did not accomplish anything of consequence on the bounce up as no daily close resistance levels were broken and the stock remains below the 200-day MA, currently at 115.25. In fact, the bulls were not even able to negate the break of the most recent low daily close at 112.82, having closed on Wednesday at 112.77 and then following that up with 2 red closes in a row. As such and after a small bargain hunting rally, the probabilities still favor further downside being seen. There is no support found on the chart until 106.15 is reached, meaning that closure of the gap is not likely to stop further selling from occurring. It does need to be mentioned that the support at 106.15 is on a daily closing basis, meaning that on an intra-day basis it might not mean much either. Nonetheless, that support does have some short-term consequences and is not likely to be broken unless there are some additional problems with the oil market. As such, the purchase price will be around that level even though lower levels might be seen intra-day.

Purchases of CLB below 106.30 and using a stop loss at 102.15 and having a 118.87 objective will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA generated a positive reversal week after a better than expected earnings report, having made a new 3 week low and then going above the previous week's high and generating a green weekly close. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to make a statement as the stock made a new 5-month intra-week high but was not able to generate any new buy signal of the weekly chart. In addition, the stock sold off at the end of the week to close very slightly below the midpoint of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 1.42 than above last week's high at 1.70. The stock gapped up between 1.46 and 1.54, which might end up being a breakaway gap. By the same token, the stock got into the gap on both Thursday and Friday with drops down to 1.52 and 1.50, suggesting that the earnings report was not strong enough to generate a breakaway gap. As such, closure of the gap is likely to occur this week and then we will see what the traders have in store for direction. Intra-week resistance is found at 1.63, at 1.67 and at 1.70. The 200-day MA is currently at 1.60 and any 2 closes in a row above the line would be a small statement by the bulls. Based on the fact that the earnings report was better than expected, the probabilities favor the bulls but slightly. An intra-week rally above 1.75 would suggest the bottom of the downtrend is set and that the stock will start trying to generate an uptrend, albeit perhaps only a short-term one. A break below 1.34 would be a negative statement.

BWA made a new 16-month intra-week high but the bulls were unable to break above the 17-month high at 44.35 (got up to 44.24) or close above the 16-month weekly close resistance at 42.95 and the stock fell back to close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 41.89 will be seen this week. The failure to break that resistance changes the short-term outlook for the stock to get up to the $47-$48 and suggests the stock will be in a 39.53 to 44.35 trading range for the next 6-8 weeks unless there is a fundamentally bullish piece of news that gives the bulls new ammunition. As such, consideration should now be given to take profits on any rally above 43.25. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.

CCJ generated an uneventful week inside week, having closed just 2 points above the previous week's close and trading between the previous week's high and low. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range suggesting further upside above last week's high at 11.30 will be seen this week. The inside week did not clear up anything meaning that the previous week's low at 10.71 has not "yet" become a successful retest of the midterm important support at 10.34. Minor intra-week resistance is found at 11.42 and then nothing until decent and likely short-term pivotal resistance is found at12.37. Probabilities favor the bulls this week and a rally up to the 12.00 level.

CLF generated an uneventful inside week, having traded above the previous week's low and below the previous week's high. Nonetheless, the stock did generate a green weekly close, as well as a close in the upper half of the week's trading range, meaning that further upside above last week's high at 9.92 it likely to be seen this week. It also means that the previous week's close at 8.74 is now a successful retest of the short-term pivotal weekly close support at 8.41. The inability of the bears to push the stock down further suggests that the bulls still have the edge and that the recent drop was mostly because the stock was pushed down from the first retest of the 200-week MA, currently at 10.55. Probabilities now favor a 2nd retest of that line. A weekly close above 11.49 or a daily close above 12.03 would now be a strong bullish statement. Nonetheless, for this coming week the stock is likely to continue trading sideways, likely between 9.04 and 10.00/10.14 while the traders await further news.

CNX "technically" had a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's and 1 point below last week's low and then generating a red weekly close. The stock now shows 7 red weekly closes in a row and in May-July of last year the stock generated 10 red weekly closes in a row, meaning that further downside could be seen. By the same token, the inability of the bears to extend the downtrend by more than 1 point likely means there is some buying interest around the $15 demilitarized zone (14.70-15.30). Intra-week chart support is not found until 13.36 is reached but in May of last year the stock spent 9-days trading between 14.78 and 15.94 and a scenario very similar to that one could be seen at this time, given that the index market is likely to trade sideways as well. Below 14.70, the stock shows nothing until the 13's are reached. As far as resistance is concerned, the 16.40 level is presently pivotal resistance that if broken would likely mean the stock would be resuming the uptrend. As such, the potential trading range for the next few weeks could be as low as 13.36 and as high as 16.40 with the trading range for this week likely being 14.70 to 15.94.

ENG continued the recent down move and made new 11-week intra-week low at 1.86. More damaging is the weekly close break of the 2.00 level that has been pivotal support for the past 8 years. The stock has now corrected 40% from the recent 3.10 high that is now a 4-point 9-year trend line. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below 1.86 is expected to be seen this week. On a small positive note though, the stock is getting back near the 200-week MA, currently at 1.66, that got broken to the upside in December and since this is the second time the stock has broken the line convincingly in the past 3 years, the probabilities have increased that this drop down will only be a retest of that line and that the next bounce up will have some bullish connotations. In addition, the 200-day MA is currently at 1.70 and that is a line that got broken to the upside 52-weeks ago and has not been broken to the downside since. The probabilities do not favor that line getting broken this time. As such, the outlook is for the stock to get down to 1.70 and start moving higher. The probabilities favor the bears this week but only for a drop down to 1.70. Consideration can be given to additional purchases at that price.

FCEL made a new all-time low weekly close, suggesting the downtrend continues and that a bottom has not yet been found. Nonetheless, the 1.25 intra-week all-time low was not broken or even gotten close to, meaning the bulls still have some hope that an intra-week bottom has been built. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.35 is expected to be seen. The probabilities strongly favor a drop down to 1.25 this week. Minor intra-week resistance is found at 1.45 and then nothing of consequence until 1.75. A break above 1.45 would ameliorate the selling interest and a rally above 1.75 would give a short-term buy signal. Probabilities favor the bears this week with a 1.25 to 1.40 likely trading range.

FSLR generated another red weekly close, the 3rd in a row, but the selling did ameliorate as the stock closed only 1.8% below the previous week's close and the red weekly close was in doubt until the last 20 minutes of trading on Friday. On Wednesday, the stock was trading as much as 5% above last week's close and it is possible that the triple witching day on Friday brought about the late-week selling as the short interest in the stock has increased due to the sell rating given 2 weeks ago. In spite of the weakness at the end of the week, the bears failed to generate a sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed above the 31.48 weekly close support. Nonetheless, the stock closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 31.81 will be seen this week. On a daily closing basis, pivotal support is at 31.02 and based on the action seen at the end of the week, both 31.02 and 31.48 are likely to be seen/tested this week, meaning that this coming week is likely pivotal for the stock. Closes below those 2 levels would likely bring in new selling interest, meaning the bulls need to do something this week. An intra-week rally above 34.05 or a daily close above 33.00 would now be positive signs. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

LVLT generated a positive week, having closed in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 57.74 will be seen this week. In addition, the green weekly close means that the previous week's close at 56.47 has now become a successful retest of 2 previous high weekly closes at 56.42 and at 56.90, suggesting that the uptrend now has a chance to resume. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 58.15 that if broken would suggest a rally up to 59.24 will occur. Decent daily close resistance is found at 59.76 that if broken would suggest the uptrend has resumed. Minor intra-week support is found at 56.92 and a bit stronger and likely more meaningful at 55.98. On a possible negative note, a Head & Shoulders formation seems to be in the process of being built with the action to be seen this week perhaps being the right shoulder. A failure to get above 58.15, followed by a break below 55.26 (neckline) would offer a $50 downside objective. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but there are many possible scenarios in play at this time.

MT bulls were able to brush off the recent weakness when the bears were unable to generate any further downside after closing near the lows of the week the previous week. The stock then turned around and generate a spike up rally to close only 8 points below the 19-month high weekly close at 9.11. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 9.25 is expected to be seen. With the 19-month intra-week high being at 9.37, if that level is broken this week, the 200-week MA, currently at 10.25 will beckon strongly. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that the MA line will be broken the first time around since it has not been broken to the upside since 2008. As such, a rally up into the $10 demilitarized zone should be used to consider short-term liquidation of the long positions, to be re-purchased again on dips back down near the $7 level. Pivotal intra-week support is now found at 8.28. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

X generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week low and then turning around to rally above the previous week's high and closing in the green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 38.41 will be seen this week. Minor to decent intra-week resistance is found at 39.14 and decent as well as pivotal at 41.83. Intra-week support is found at 35.71 and mid-term pivotal at 34.39. The positive reversal seen this week, as well as the support for U.S. Steel the Trump Administration has expressed, strongly suggests the bulls have the upper hand at this time. Nonetheless, the bulls need to generate some new buy signals soon or the edge may disappear. A weekly close above the $40 demilitarized zone needs to be accomplished as soon as possible and a weekly close above 45.10 would suggest a rally up to the $60 would be in the making. An intra-week drop below 34.39 would now be short-term negative and would suggest the $30 would be visited. Probabilities favor the bulls.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .112 (new price 1.35 ).

2) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.47 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.06.

3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.90.

4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.55.

5) MT - Averaged long at 6.244 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 8.18. Stock closed on Friday at 9.03.

6) FSLR - Averaged long at 39.938 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 31.83.

7) LVLT - Purchased at 59.11. Stop loss now at 55.15. Stock closed on Friday at 57.47.

8) CLF - Purchased at 8.76. Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 8.55. Stock closed on Friday at 9.27.

9) CNX - Averaged long at 20.05. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 15.10.

10) X - Purchased at 33.03. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 37.29.

11) BWA - Averaged long at 40.856 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 41.13. Stock closed on Friday at 42.76.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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