Issue #516 ![]() Feb 26, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Runaway Freight Train Slows Down but Brakes Still not Working!
DOW Friday closing price - 20821
The DOW made another new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high and closed once again near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 20840 will be seen this week. The index has now made a new all-time intra-week and weekly close on 12 out of the last 16 weeks and has rallied 2957 points (a 16.5% rally) since Trump got elected.
The DOW has now rallied 840 points above the 20,000 level and has now surpassed 2 or the 3 previous rallies (729 and 752 points) above a major psychological level (such as 10,000) when broken either for the first time or after trading below that level for at least 9 months. The index is now only 525 points from reaching the rally-before-a-correction-is-seen level that was reached the very first time the 10,000 level was broken, which was 1365 points.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW has now resistance above but is likely meet some psychological resistance at the 21,000 level and some "general" resistance again at 21,300.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows very minor but possibly short-term pivotal support at 20,532. Below that level, there is no support until the 20000 demilitarized zone (19970-20030) is reached. Further support is found at 19831 and minor to perhaps decent as well as pivotal at 19784.
The DOW is now officially on a runaway freight train category meaning that the momentum must be maintained until it is exhausted. As such, even a simple move below a previous week's low can be a catalyst for a strong profit taking binge. Last week's low was 20,663 and therefore will be seen this week as a possible trigger point signaling the index may have found a top to this rally.
For now, the DOW is likely to continue higher and having gotten up to 20,840 last week, the 21,000 demilitarized zone will beckon, suggesting that at the very least the index will get up to the 20,900-20,970 area. Probabilities continue to favor the bulls.
SPX Friday closing price - 2367
The SPX made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2368 will be seen this week.
The SPX remains a follower (rather than a leader) as leadership continues to shift between the DOW and the NASDAQ. Nonetheless, the index traders do have a possible upside objective of 2427, which was the objective given when the bullish flag formation on the weekly chart got broken. It is a viable objective as it would suggest the DOW would get up to 21,304 which fits in with what happened the first time that index got above 10,000, a 1365 point rally above that psychological level.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows no previous resistance or even a general or psychological resistance area nearby.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX will now show very minor but possibly short-term pivotal support at 2322. Below that level, there is minor support at 2285 and likely short-term pivotal at 2267/2271. On a daily closing basis though, important support will be found at 2298 (top of the flag).
Like with the DOW, the SPX bulls need to keep the momentum going until it stops. As such, last week's low at 2352 must be considered a possible trigger point for the traders to start taking profits. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5845
The NASDAQ made yet another new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high last week and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 5867 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the index showed a bit of weakness this past week, having made the new all-time intra-week high on Tuesday and then failing to go higher the rest of the week. In addition, the bulls struggled on Friday to generate a green weekly close as the index traded below the previous week's close for the entire day except the last 20 minutes of trading when the bulls had to scramble frantically to rally in order to keep the momentum alive on a weekly closing basis.
The NASDAQ not only showed a bit of weakness on the latter part of the week but lost the leadership to the DOW, having rallied only .2% above the previous week's close compared to 1% for the other index. The loss of leadership suggests that traders are now getting conservative regarding much further upside being seen.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ has no resistance close by. Psychological resistance is likely to be found at the 6000 level.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ now shows minor but possibly short-term pivotal support at 5748. Below that level, there is very minor support at 5649 and again at 5616 and minor to perhaps decent but short-term pivotal at 5576.
Like with the other indexes, the momentum must be kept alive, meaning that last week's low at 5800 in the NASDAQ is now a possible trigger point for traders taking profits and the rally top being found.
The probabilities continue to favor the bulls in the NASDAQ but the action last week (especially the scramble at the end of the week to generate a green weekly close) suggests that the top to this rally is not far away and as such, this is the index the traders will be keying on this week. Friday's low at 5800 was the low for the week and that means that it is reachable at any time from where the index closed on Friday.
The "runaway freight train" continued but the speed started to slacken, suggesting that the end may be near. The coming week a lot of important economic reports are scheduled that will start to show numbers that have some bearing on the Trump Administration. On Monday it is Retail Sales, on Tuesday it is the 2nd estimate of GDP, the Chicago PMI and the Consumer Confidence number, on Wednesday it is Personal Income and Spending and then on Thursday it is the ISM Index report. In addition, Trump is scheduled to deliver his first speech to Congress on Tuesday and there is a chance that he will unveil his Tax plan, which is certainly something that has been driving the market up. As such, the probabilities have increased that it could be a pivotal week for the market, especially if his Tax plan is released.
The market is strongly overbought and some say overdone as there has been no actual changes yet to any of the underlying factors and plans that Trump is supposed to bring to the economy. Simply stated, it has ALL been speculation so far and even if those changes come to pass, it will still need to be proven to be as beneficial to the economy as the anticipation has been. The old adage of "Buy the anticipation and sell the fact" could prove to be just as true now as it has been in the past and that is even if the proposals are adopted.
The "runaway freight train" phenomena does has some clearly defined parameters involved in it and one of them is that when momentum starts to change the traders are likely bail out. What this means is that any negative action compared to the previous week's action is likely to be a signal for profits to be taken. As such, last week's lows in the indexes could be the chart signal the traders will be looking at this week to make decisions on the "train coming to a halt".
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
No mentions this week as there are a number of economic reports scheduled that could both speed the rally or stop it, especially since the reports are now going to start reflecting the Trump Administration action. Mentions will be made in the message board when more clarity is seen.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA had an uneventful week as the traders await Monday's earnings report that is due out after the close. If the bulls are able to get above last week's high at 1.52 this coming week, a successful retest of the 1.34 low seen 7 weeks ago will have occurred and then if able to also get above the recent high at 1.66, it will be a bullish statement that a bottom is in place. By the same token, any break of the 1.34 low will likely mean that a new leg down, at least down to the all-time low at 1.21 will be seen. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but then the decision is based on an earnings report and as such, somewhat unpredictable. The levels to watch this week is 1.34 and 1.66. One of them is likely to get broken. BWA generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 15-month intra-week high and then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 41.23 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock gave a failure signal on the bullish flag formation that was broken the previous week, having closed below the high weekly close of the flag breakout at 41.86. The news of a possible investigation in Delaware of the Board of Directors may have been the cause for the weakness seen this past week. A break below the most recent intra-week low at 40.66 or a daily close below 41.38 would confirm the failure. A close of the gap seen on Friday between 42.34 and 42.05, in conjunction with a daily close above 41.86 would negate the failure signal and suggest the uptrend will resume. Probabilities favor the bears this week as the guidelines of the flag formation breakout have been broken. Nonetheless, since the weakness was based on news, if the news goes away, the stock may resume the upside trend. Consideration can be given to raising the stop loss to 40.56. CCJ confirmed that the previous week's drop down to 10.34 was a successful retest of the $10 level and of the 50-week MA, currently at 10.55, having gone above the previous week's high and then closing in the green on Friday. Nonetheless, the bulls were not able to generate a weekly close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that resumption of the uptrend may still be a couple of weeks away from happening and that more chart building may be happening. Daily close support is found at 11.40 and stronger at 10.85. Likely pivotal daily close resistance is found at 12.36. Probabilities favor the stock trading this week between 11.23 and 12.24. CLF generated a red week and a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 10.17 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the weakness was not unexpected given that the stock 2 weeks ago broke out above the 200-week MA, currently at 10.65, and that was a line that had not been broken for the previous 57 months, as such highly likely to be retested. The stock closed just slightly above the line and if a green close is seen next Friday, a successful retest will have occurred and that could give the bulls additional ammunition to resume the uptrend/breakout. The stock generated a positive reversal day on Friday, having made a new 10.day low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the day, suggesting further upside above Friday's high at 10.96 is likely to be seen on Monday. If that occurs, it will also become a successful retest of the breakaway gap between 9.52 and 9.95. Intra-week resistance is found at 11.70 that could be pivotal in resuming the uptrend if broken. Closure of the gap at 9.52 would be a negative. Probabilities slightly favor the bears for a drop down to 10.00 or even perhaps down to 9.70 this coming week but last week's action was enough to fulfill the required retest of the MA line and of the breakaway gap, meaning that further downside is not a high probability. CNX continued the recent downtrend, having generated the 4th red close week in a row and making a new 25-week intra-week low. In addition, the stock gave a new sell signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed below the 8-month low weekly close at 16.44. The only remaining positive is that the 7-month intra-week low at 15.41 has not been broken yet, though the probabilities favor it being seen or tested this week. On a positive note, the stock fundamentally should not be experiencing this kind of weakness, given that it is an energy company that has coal and natural gas as its main components and with Trump talking about helping the coal industry, the company's gas drilling efficiency/cost having improved over 120% in the past 2 years, and inflation prospects growing, this is a company that is likely underpriced at this time, especially considering it was trading at $119 in 2008. Nonetheless, the bulls have to do something this week as a break below 15.41 would likely generate new selling interest and a drop down to the next support level of consequence around $13. The bulls need to generate a green close next Friday and above 16.44 to negate this past week's break. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 17.30 and longer term pivotal resistance is found at 17.85. Probabilities favor the bears but this is a pivotal week. ENG followed through to the downside this past week and generated another red weekly close and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2.07 will be seen this week. The drop seen this past week has additionally strengthened the now 4-point 8-year trend line that was tested 2 weeks ago with the rally up to 3.10. Nonetheless, the stock is now reaching a level of support at 2.00 that is considered decent to perhaps even strong and having gotten down to 2.07 this past week, if further downside below that level is seen, it probably will be minimal as the intra-week support at 1.99 should not be broken if the fundamental reasons for the rally from .64 to 3.10 remain viable. Minor but short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 2.43 and then nothing until 2.72. Support is found at 1.99. The stock has seen 7 days in a row of red daily closes, which has not happened once in the last 52 weeks. With no news or change of fundamentals seen last week, the probabilities favor a turnaround in the stock this week. FCEL generated an uneventful week, having traded in a 17-point trading range. Nonetheless, the stock did have a slight bearish bias as each day this past week was a lower high than the previous day. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 1.50 is expected to be seen. As it is, there has yet to be a successful retest of the 1.25 low on either the daily or weekly chart, meaning that if the stock gets below 1.50 this coming week, that such a retest could be in the process of occurring. Minor intra-week support is found at 1.40 and resistance is found at 1.80. Probabilities favor the bears this week but only for a drop down to 1.40. If that occurs and the stock generates a green close next Friday above 1.53, it will be said the retest of the lows is done and that a bottom has been set. FSLR generated a second buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having closed above the previous high weekly close at 35.75 and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 38.50 will be seen this week. In addition, the stock closed on Friday above the 46-month low weekly close at 36.72 that when broken to the downside brought about the drop down to 28.60, meaning that a failure to follow through signal was given that signals an end to the 11-month downtrend. To the upside, there is minor intra-week resistance at 39.31, minor to perhaps decent at 40.33 and decent at 42.90. Intra-week support is now decent as well as pivotal between 33.49 and 33.74. The stock is facing an important week given that there is a gap between 38.60 and 40.32 that occurred off of an earnings report in November and closure of that gap will signal that the fundamental negatives of that report have been negated. In addition, the 200-day MA is currently at 39.35, given that gap area additional resistance strength. Closure or non-closure of the gap will be what the traders will key on this week. With the stock having moved up 13% from low to high last week, momentum is on the side of the bulls. Nonetheless, this is the level (the gap area) where the bears need to make a strong stand. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls but they do have a lot to accomplish. LVLT generated a green weekly close on Friday that suggests that the previous week's close at 57.30 is now a successful retest of the previous 8+-year high weekly close at 57.20. Unfortunately, the stock generated an inside week, the higher weekly close was only by 31 points and the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that not only further downside below last week's low at 57.31 will be seen this week but that the bulls were unable to make a "clear statement" that the selling interest has waned. In addition, the chart seems to suggest that a bearish inverted flag formation is now in place with the flagpole being the drop from 60.12 to 56.92 and the flag the trading range seen the last 11 trading days back up to 58.18. A break of the bottom of the flag at 56.92 would offer a 53.92 objective. It is evident that this stock is at a short-term crux point with 58.19 and 56.92 as the pivotal levels on the intra-week chart. On a daily closing basis, it is 57.20 and 58.01. Probabilities actually slightly favor the bears this week based on the short-term chart but favor the bulls on the longer term chart. MT generated a negative reversal, having made a new 18-month high and then closing below the previous week's low and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.58 will be seen this week. The last negative reversal was in August and it caused the stock to be in a correction for 6 weeks and took the stock down 18.4%. A correction of the same magnitude this time would mean a drop back down to at least the 7.59 level. The key level this week will be 8.45 as there is some minor but short-term pivotal support at that price. The stock is finding increased selling interest as it gets near 10.00, not only from a psychological perspective but also from the 200-week MA that is currently at 10.30. That line has not been broken for the past 9 years, meaning that the probabilities are highly unlikely that it will be broken the first time around. It does look more likely at this time that the stock may get into a trading range between 7.00 and 10.00 for the foreseeable future (3-6 months) and as such should be considered now a "tradeable" stock rather than a buy and hold stock. As such, consideration can now be given to liquidating positions on rally up to and above 8.83. Probabilities favor the bears this week. X generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 28-month intra-week high and then closing in the red and below the previous week's low. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 35.71 is expected to be seen this week. The negative reversal was likely caused by a lawsuit that the company submitted this past week in Minnesota to stop a permit denial in that state until the company resolves some of the costly environmental issues that would make the company less competitive. Nonetheless and from a chart perspective, the stock also got up close to a decent intra-week resistance at 42.25 (got up to 41.83) and with the indexes showing some weakness, the sellers used the news to take profits, both from a chart and fundamental basis. The red weekly close also made the previous weeks close at 39.80 into a successful retest of the weekly close resistance at 40.00, which was not an unexpected event. In spite of the negative reversal week the bears did not accomplish generating any sell signals or failure signals, given that the stock did not break any previous low daily or weekly closes and still closed above the previous high weekly close at 36.06 and only broke the previous high daily close at 37.49 by a few points. The stock was able to bounce back from Friday's lows to close in the upper half of the day's trading range, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside. Friday's high was 38.06 and if that gets broken on Monday there is no resistance until 39.14. By the same token, the 39.14 will have some increased importance this week as a resistance level that would either prove or disprove that the fundamental news that caused the stock to sell off is truly negative to the company or not. To the downside, support is not found until the 33.76/33.89 level is reached and that support is minor to perhaps decent at best. Decent to perhaps strong support is found at 30.57/30.71. As long as Trump continues to push for infra-structure spending and using U.S. steel, the outlook for the company will remain positive. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but the negatives seen this past week are fundamentally based and not clearly defined, meaning that the stock could recover "on a dime". The longer term outlook remains bullish for the stock.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .126 (new price 1.52). 2) CLB - Purchased at 113.24. Averaged long at 114.585. Liquidated at 112.47. Loss on the trade of $423 per 100 shares (2 jmentions) plus commissions. 3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.92 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 2.18. 4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.47. 5) MT - Averaged long at 6.244 (5 mentions). Stop loss now at 7.57. Stock closed on Friday at 8.64. 6) FSLR - Averaged long at 39.938 (6 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 37.90. 7) LVLT - Purchased at 59.11. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 57.61. 8) CLF - Averaged long at 9.06. Stop loss at 9.52. Stock closed on Friday at 10.71. 9) CNX - Averaged long at 20.05. Stop loss now at 16.03. Stock closed on Friday at 15.78. 10) X - Purchased at 33.03. Stop loss now at 37.93. Stock closed on Friday at 37.01. 11) BWA - Averaged long at 40.856 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 40.56. Stock closed on Friday at 41.53. 12) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.47 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 10.95.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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