Issue #523
Apr 16, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bears in Short-term Control. Earnings Quarter Starts! Will Bulls Turn it Around?

DOW Friday closing price - 20453

The DOW made a new 9-week weekly closing low on Thursday and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 20453 will be seen this week. There was no catalyst for the selling interest as it was a week with very little news, suggesting that the negative reversal seen the previous week and the recent downtrend was likely what gave the bears ammunition to take the index lower.

There are 5 earnings reports from DOW companies due out this week (AXP, GS, IBM, VZ and V) but at these high prices these stocks would have to show much better than expected earnings reports to give the bulls ammunition to "turn the tide" around and take the index higher after 2 weeks of weakness, especially since the 20,000 level is now acting as a magnet.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor to perhaps decent resistance at 20750/20753, minor to decent at 20887 and again at 21000. Above that level, there is decent resistance at 21169.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor and short-term pivotal support at 20,412. Below that level, there is nothing until the 20000 demilitarized zone (19970-20030) is reached. Further support is found at 19831 and minor to perhaps decent as well as pivotal at 19784.

The 20,412 level in the DOW chart is now pivotal support as there is no other support built below until the 20,000 demilitarized zone is reached. A break of that support does suggest that the traders will expect the 20,000 level to be reached in a very short time. Nonetheless, it does need to be remembered that over the past few years the market has mostly experienced rallies in the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter and since it is unlikely that any of the earnings reports will come in negative enough to give the bears strong ammunition, it does suggest that the traders may not be aggressive at this time in selling even if the support at 20,412 is built.

Nonetheless, it is evident by the short-term downtrend in the DOW seen the last 9 weeks, which now includes a successful retest of the all-time high at 21,169, that bulls are on the defensive and needing positive news to generate "new" buying interest. It is unlikely that will happen this week, meaning that the probabilities favor the bears.

SPX Friday closing price - 2328

The SPX made a new 9-week weekly closing low and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 2328 will be seen this week.

The SPX received 3 earnings reports on Thursday (C, JPM and WFC) and though they all came in better than expected, all reacted negatively and fell to make new multi-week lows. It does suggest that the financial earnings reports due out this week (GS, BAC and MS) will not be of help to the bulls.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows very minor resistance at 2358, minor to perhaps decent at 2370 and minor to decent at 2378. Further resistance is found at 2390 and at 2400.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX shows pivotal support at 2322. Below that level, there is no support until minor support at 2285 and likely short-term pivotal at 2267/2271. On a daily closing basis though, important support will be found at 2298.

The SPX now shows 2 successful retests of the all-time high at 2400 on both the daily and weekly chart, which does mean that on a short-term basis the bears are in control and that a stronger correction than has been seen recently could be on the horizon.

The level to watch this week in the SPX is 2322 because if broken it would give the traders an immediate objective of 2285-2300. Nonetheless, it bears mentioning that the 2300 does not have the same psychological strength that the 20,000 level has in the DOW, meaning that further downside (perhaps as low as 2233) could be seen if 2285 is broken.

After GS reports on Tuesday AM and MS reports on Wednesday AM, the SPX is not likely to be the index the traders watch. Given the negative reaction seen on Thursday to the better than expected earnings reports, it does suggest that the bears are presently in control and that further downside will be seen this week.

NASDAQ Friday closing price - 5805

The NASDAQ confirmed the negative reversal seen the previous week, having generated another red weekly close, below the previous week's low, and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 5805 will be seen this week. The last 2 negative reversals seen (December and March) were reversed back to the upside with a green weekly close the following week, meaning that this reversal likely has more meaning.

The NASDAQ will likely be the index watched closely by the traders this week, given that the index will kick off of its earning season with one of the "biggies" as NFLX reports on Monday after the market close.

To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ now shows minor resistance at 5867 and minor to decent between 5907 and 5911. Above that level, there is minor to decent resistance at 5928 and decent at 5336.

To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ now shows minor support at 5781 and decent as well as pivotal at 5769. Below that level, there is very minor support at 5649 and then nothing until minor support is found at 5576.

The NASDAQ is going to be the key this week as a break below 5769 leaves open air below on the chart for a drop of 200+ points. There is general support at 5700 but with no previous support having been built at that price it is not dependable. As such, if the bears break that support it could get ugly.

Probabilities favor the bears in the NASDAQ this week but if NFLX earnings comes in better than expected, the bulls might get a break as the traders will wait for AMZN and AAPL earnings to come out.


The bears were the winners last week and with no economic reports of consequence due out this week, the bulls will need to depend on earnings to help them out. Nonetheless, the pattern seen over the past few years of the indexes rallying the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter might be at risk of being broken due to the fact that the Trump win caused to much positive anticipation that it could be all factored in already. If that is the case, reports would have to come in much better than anticipated to stop the profit taking binge being presently seen due to the failures the Trump administration has experienced so far.

The important earnings reports scheduled for this week will all be out by Wednesday PM though the 2 most important ones (NFLX and GS) will be out by Tuesday AM, meaning that what the indexes do at the beginning of the week will likely set the tone for the rest of the week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no new mentions this week though I am leaning toward being a buyer. Nonetheless, there are too many question marks this week that make probability ratings on anything (buying or selling) be low, meaning that I want to see the action in the indexes first before venturing into any trades. As such, mentions will be given in the message board but probably not before Tuesday or Wednesday.

Nonetheless, I will be buying additional shares of ENG this week. This is not a stock that is likely to be affected by anything the market does and at this price it is almost a "must purchase". I will be looking to purchase the stock below 1.44 and will not be using a stop loss at this time, though a break of 1.28 would be of concern. This is a buy and hold purchase with an objective of $10 to be reached within 1-3 years.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA continued to trade in the sideways trading range between 1.34 and 1.70 that the stock has been in for the past 25 weeks. Nonetheless, the stock made a new 11 week low at 1.39 (below 1.40) but saw no follow through to the downside as the stock turned around to close in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting that the "slight" edge the bears had achieved over the past 18 trading days may have disappeared. Unfortunately for the bulls, nothing was achieved to the upside either, suggesting that more of the same will be seen. A rally above the minor intra-week resistance at 1.49 would give the bulls a slight edge. Probabilities do not favor either side this week.

CAT generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high and then closing in the red. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 93.09 is expected to be seen. The stock has an open gap between 92.84 and 93.06 that is expected to be closed since the bulls failed to make new all-time highs on the recent rally. Minor to decent intra-week support is found between 91.90 and 92.35 that has a high probability of being reached this week and will fulfill the minimum objective of the sell mention. Below that level, minor to decent support is found at 91.00 and then decent at the double low at 90.34/90.41. Intra-week resistance is now minor to decent between 95.19 and 95.48 and then above that at 97.00 to 97.33. A rally above 95.48 would relieve some of the sell pressure, meaning that a stop loss at 95.58 can be considered to lock in some profit. The 92.11 level seems to be a likely pivot point that if broken would give the bears additional ammunition and if seen but not broken would give the bulls some ammunition. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

CCJ made a new 8-week high breaking the resistance built at 11.38 with a rally up to 11.91. Nonetheless, the bulls failed to get up to the resistance area between 12.00 and 12.36 and disappointment was felt, which in turn generated a spike high negative reversal week with a red weekly close. Such a reversal suggests the stock might do the same to the downside, especially considering the expected weakness to be seen in the indexes this week. The key pivotal intra-week support for this week is 10.80. A break of that level would suggest a drop down to the 10.00 level and a test of the 200-day MA, currently at 10.05. Intra-week resistance is once again decent at 11.38, which if broken would likely defuse the negative action seen last week. Probabilities favor the bears.

CLF continued the recent downtrend, having made a new 23-week low, breaking the 200-day MA, currently at 7.80, and closing on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.10 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock is now reaching the next level of important support at 7.00, which not only represents an important low from October 2014 (and from which a rally up to 11.70 then occurred) but is also a "general" support level of some consequence ($3 below $10). Much of the selling this past week came from the break of the 200-day MA as well as the weakness seen in the index market. On a possible positive note, there has been no negative news on the company, meaning that the drop in price is likely to be mostly chart oriented and if that is the case, the 7.00 level of support should hold up and a positive reversal week be seen with a rally back up to the 200-day MA at 7.80. On a slightly negative note, the break of the MA line does suggest that the uptrend that had been in place since January of last week has now likely turned into a sideways trend with 7.00 as the expected low and 11.00 as the expected high, at least for the next 3 months. For the next couple of weeks though, support should be found between 6.70 and 7.00 and resistance at 8.45.

CNX generated a red weekly close on Friday and more importantly below the previous low weekly close at 16.44 that had been broken to the upside, meaning that the failure signal that occurred 3 weeks ago was negated. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 15.84 is expected to be seen this week. Important Intra-week support is found at 15.41 that if it holds would suggest the drop will be a successful retest of the recent 14.75 low. If it doesn't hold up, a drop down to 14.75 would likely occur. Mid-term chart remains bullish but a break below 14.75 this month would be decently bearish, meaning the bulls are likely to be buyers around 15.41. Intra-week resistance is found at 17.27, meaning that if the bulls find support at 15.41, the stock could rally nearly $2 without much selling interest being seen.

ENG had a strong down week, having made a new 19-week low, closing below the 200-week MA, currently at 1.62, and closing on the low of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.45 will be seen this week. The stock has given up 54% in value since it got to the 3-point trend line at the 3.10 high reached the first week of February. The action seen over the past 9 weeks mimics the action seen on 2 of the 3 previous occasions over the past 9 years, with the stock generating a midterm rally but failing to get above the previous high and then giving up all of its gains and making a new all-time low. Support is now decent on all charts (intra-week and daily/weekly closing charts at 1.28-1.31 as that was the spike low seen after the previous rally up to 4.22 occurred. Each and every time during the last 9 years that the stock reached a previous support level such as the one seen now at 1.28-1.31, the stock turned around and generated at least a $1 rally to the upside, which turned out to be a retest the previous high, which is not something that has yet happened on this occasion and is likely to occur before the traders have to consider whether things are changing for the longer term. The one thing that is now different from the first 2 drops seen is that now there is an uptrend in place using the all-time low at .30 and the previous low at .68 which now connects at .95 cents and suggests that not only a rounded bottom is in place but that a triangle formation is occurring that will result in the downtrend turning into an uptrend sometime in the near future. Nonetheless, the probabilities do not favor the stock dropping down to 1.28-1.30 but likely stopping around 1.39/1.40 and turning around to close in the green next Friday and above the 200-week MA, thus negating the break. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week but the bulls at the end of the week.

FCEL made a new 3-month intra-week and weekly closing high but the bulls were not able to maintain the highs levels and closed near the lows of the week on Friday, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.60 will be seen this week. The stock seems to be following what PLUG is doing and PLUG got up to the 200-week MA and was not able to close above it and it too sold off to closing in the lower half of the week's trading range. Nonetheless, the stock has now built a confirmed bottom at 1.25 that suggests more buying than selling interest will be seen for the time being. Minor to perhaps decent intra-week support is found at 1.50 and minor (on a daily closing basis) at 1.45. Resistance is now found at 1.95/1.97 at 2.05 and decent as well as pivotal at 2.30. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

FSLR generated the first green weekly close in the last 7 weeks, suggesting that the recent low at 25.56 has generated at least some short-covering interest. Nonetheless, the stock closed "slightly" in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 26.81 than above last week's high at 28.24. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to maintain the green weekly close in spite of the weakness seen in the indexes which in turn does suggest that for at least a couple of weeks the stock might not head lower. Upside objective of 29.71 was not reached this week though it remains viable and likely to be seen within the next 2-3 weeks. Intra-week support is found at 26.08 and at 25.56. A drop down to 26.08 is likely if the bears are able to get the stock below last week's low. Nonetheless, if that level is seen and holds up, a successful retest of the lows will have occurred and will likely give the bulls enough ammunition to take the stock up to 29.71.

LVLT closed within 7 points of the 9-year high weekly close at 52.61 and within 22 points of the high daily close for the same period of time at 59.76. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 59.84 is expected to be seen this week. The 9-year intra-week high is at 60.12 and if that level is broken, especially if the top of the $60 demilitarized zone at 60.30 is broken as well, a rally up to the 10-year high weekly close at 62.25 (intra-week at 67.00) would likely be seen. The stock outperformed the indexes due to the additional approval from 4 states to the merger with Century Link, which strongly increases the chances of it being done. Nonetheless, the bulls have a tough chore this week because of the established resistance at $60 and the probability of having to break out while the indexes may be breaking down. Last week's low at 58.59 is pivotal this week as a break of that level would suggest a double top is in place. A break above 60.30 would suggest a rally at least up to 62.25 would occur. Consideration should be given to taking profits if that occurs. Probabilities favor the bulls.

X generated a negative reversal week, having gone above last week's high and then closing in the red and below last week's low. In addition, the stock made a new 20-week low and in the process broke a decent and established support at 30.73, suggesting that the bullish sentiment due to Trump's infrastructure spending plan and use of American steel got diminished across the board this past week. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 29.41 is expected to be seen. Very minor intra-week support is found at 26.36 and then a bit stronger at 25.67. On a weekly closing basis, there is minor to perhaps decent support between 27.49 and 27.67. The break was probably exacerbated with stop loss selling below 30.73, meaning the fall could be negated this coming week with a close above 32.55. By the same token, any close above 30.09 would be a positive (though a small one) as the $30 level was also a weekly close support that got broken and a close above $30 would take some of the selling interest away. The company reports earnings on April 25th and it is unlikely that the selling interest will stay strong at these prices going into the report. As such, the probabilities do favor some type of positive reversal week though on an intra-week basis there is a decent chance of the stock going down another $4 from Friday's closing price. The Senate returns from recess on April 21st and any positive talk about an Infrastructure spending Bill would likely give strong support to the stock. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

XON generated an uneventful week but it was considered slightly positive since no follow through to the downside was seen off of the previous week's red close and in the lower part of the week's trading range. Nonetheless, the bulls were unable to make a clear case for higher prices given that the daily and weekly close resistance at 20.23/20.19 was not broken though the stock did trade intra-week above that level twice this week. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, meaning that there is no clear direction for this week. This was further strengthened by the fact that the stock trading "within" Tuesday's trading range the last 3 days of the week. The probabilities slightly favor the bulls since there is now a double bottom at 18.54/18.41. A drop down to 18.86 could be seen but would likely find buying interest there. A break above last week's high at 20.42 would be a decent positive. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .137 (new price 1.65).

2) CCJ - Averaged long at 10.47 (2 mentions). Stop loss at 9.65. Stock closed on Friday at 11.11.

3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.865 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.49.

4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.43.

5) CAT - Shorted at 97.43. Stop loss now at 95.58 (mental). Stock closed on Friday at 93.10.

6) FSLR - Averaged long at 37.52 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 27.42.

7) LVLT - Purchased at 59.11. Stop loss now at 55.15. Stock closed on Friday at 59.54.

8) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.12.

9) CNX - Averaged long at 19.17 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 14.66. Stock closed on Friday at 15.87.

10) X - Averaged long at 33.42 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 29.42.

11) FSLR - Purchased at 25.67. Stop loss at 24.36. Stock closed on Friday at 27.42.

12) XON - Purchased at 18.57. Stop loss now at 18.31. Stock closed on Friday at 19.67.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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