Issue #526 ![]() May 7, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Bulls Back in Control! Uptrend Resumes.
DOW Friday closing price - 21006
The DOW generated a new all-time high weekly close on Friday, having closed 1 point above the previous all-time high weekly close at 21005 that was made 10 weeks ago. The index closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 21006 is expected to be seen this week.
On a very slight negative note, the DOW bulls were unable to get above the previous week's intra-week high at 21070, meaning that the week was an inside week and in spite of the new all-time high weekly close having been made, still left questions unanswered.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor to decent and likely pivotal resistance at 20070 and decent at the all-time high at 21169.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the DOW now shows minor to perhaps decent as well as short-term pivotal support at 20,847. Below that level, there is minor to perhaps decent support at 20777 and then again at 20,517.
The seasonal correction in the DOW was supposed to start last week after the ISM Index and Jobs Reports came out, especially since neither of them were out of line sufficiently as to generate new buying interest. Nonetheless, the bears were not able to generate enough selling interest and now the probabilities favor further upside being seen this week.
Since the seasonal correction does not seem to be a driving force to the traders in the DOW, the original chart evaluation based on past history (1999 to be exact) is now once again the most likely scenario, meaning that the probabilities favor a new all-time high above 21169 being made (likely up to 21250-21300) and then another small correction back down to around the 20500 level. This scenario fits well with the action seen last week as well as with the lack of certainty about what the Trump administration will be able (or not be able) to do with Health Care, Tax Reform and Infrastructure spending which will not even become clearer until after the summer months.
As such, the DOW is not likely to make any big strides to the upside (will be toiled gains as it was in 1999) and after a couple of weeks the bulls will once again consider taking profits and a correction begin. With no economic reports of consequence scheduled for this week and Congress on an 11-day recess, the index is likely to continue higher but on a limited basis, meaning that no more than about 250-300 points will be gained over a period of 1-3 weeks. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
SPX Friday closing price - 2399
The SPX made a new all-time high weekly close (above the double top at 2383/2384) but fell short by 1 point of doing the same on an intra-week basis. Nonetheless, the index closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 2399 is expected to be seen, meaning that a new all-time intra-week high will likely be made this week.
The bears in the SPX attempted to close the runaway gap down at 2376 on Wednesday and Thursday with drops down to 2379 and 2380 respectively, but when unsuccessful they were forced to short-cover. The inability to close the gap has given the bulls new ammunition to take the index up to new all-time highs and keep the uptrend intact.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows decent resistance at 2400. Above that level there is no resistance until psychological at 2500.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the SPX now shows minor but pivotal support at 2379. Below that, there is minor support at 2354, minor again at 2336, minor to perhaps decent at 2328 and decent as well as short-term pivotal at 2322.
The upside objective of the SPX is likely to be 2428-2431. The 2428 level was previously an objective off of a bullish flag formation on the weekly chart that got negated when the index got up to 2400 and corrected. Nonetheless, it remains a viable objective given that now there is also a 3-point trend line using the highs seen in December 2014, February 2015, and February 2017 that offer 2428-2431 as the objective of this rally.
With no possibly catalytic economic or earnings reports scheduled for this week and the seasonal correction that normally starts the first week of May looking like it will not happen, the SPX is likely to continue higher this week. The 2428-2431 level is a viable objective with the only question likely to be, "how soon will the index get there?". Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 6100
The NASDAQ made yet another new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high on Friday (the 19th out of the last 39 weeks) and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 6102 will be seen this week.
The NASDAQ remains the "hot" index, having rallied 5% over the past 4 weeks, compared to 3% for the other indexes. The Tech industry, specifically the big companies such as AMZN, AAPL and GOOGL, continue to lead the market higher in an unpresented run and there seems to be no end in sight yet.
To the upside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ shows no resistance above.
To the downside and on an intra-week basis, the NASDAQ show minor but short-term pivotal support at 6054 and minor but also pivotal at 6002. Below that, there is no support until 5914 but that support is on a daily closing basis.
It is evident that the NASDAQ is leading the market and with no earnings or economic reports of consequence this week, the leadership is likely to continue. Using the 3 intra-week highs seen between March and July 2015, a trend line can be drawn that offers a 6225 upside objective, which does compare with the upside objectives given for the other 2 indexes.
With the breakaway/runaway gap formation and the strong follow through to the upside seen this week, the bulls in the NASDAQ are committed to taking the index higher this week. Any signs of failure at this time would give the bears ammunition that they don't presently have. As such, the index should continue to make new intra-week and weekly closing highs for the next 1-3 weeks, or until that trend line at 6225 is reached. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
With the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter being over, the seasonal tendency to begin a correction the first week of May not happening, and no economic or earnings reports of consequence scheduled for this week, the bulls seem to be in total control of the market and further gains are expected to be seen. Any deviation from this scenario would be of concern.
The upside objectives defined above are based on charts and should be reached within the next 3 weeks. Nonetheless, they are not dependable given that there is no previous resistance above except in the DOW.
It needs to be mentioned though, that the bulls do have the biggest risk of failure at this time as the indexes have rallied over 15% since the Trump election and yet none of the Trump's promised changes, which would make the economy grow, have been accomplished yet. Simply stated, the market is "walking on eggs" and any surprises would likely be to the downside.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There are no mentions this week. First of all, the direction is likely to be higher but limited in nature and secondly stocks are not reacting in unison to the overall market, meaning that other than a few of the "darling stocks", movement upward is not guaranteed and shorting does not offer high probabilities in any stock.
In addition, there are about 6 stocks (none held at present) that I have been tracking and have interest in purchasing or shorting and none of them are likely to reach desired entry points this week.
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
ARNA made a new all-time weekly closing low on Friday, having closed at 1.22, which was 2 points below the previous low week's close seen in April 2011. The stock closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.21 will be seen this week. The company reports earnings on Tuesday after the close. Presently there are 5 firms following the stock and 2 of them have a buy recommendation, 2 of them have a hold recommendation and 1 has a sell recommendation. The all-time intra-week low was made 3 weeks ago at 1.20 (1 point below the previous one from 2011 at 1.21) and that came from the news of additional shares being sold by the company at 1.28. The drop seen from the negative news was negated a few days later when the stock closed the gap created by the news, meaning that the probabilities do not favor the bears making new lows this week unless the earnings report disappoints. Earnings are expected to be at -$.09 cents. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.41 and longer term pivotal at 1.71. Support is found at 1.20 and nothing below that until psychological support is found at 1.00. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week if only because the stock is hugely oversold, is trading at a major support, and the recent negatives were negated. Nonetheless, it is all about the earnings report this week. CLF continued the recent downtrend, having made a new 6-month low and generating the 5th red weekly close in a row and the 9th out of the last 11. Nonetheless, the stock has now reached the next daily/weekly close support at 6.26-6.31 that comes from a previous low weekly close seen December 2014 at 6.31 and from 2 previous high daily closes at 6.26 and 6.30 seen in October and November of last year. As such, this is the level where the bulls need to "make something positive happen. It should be noted that from the 6.31 low weekly close seen in December 2014, the stock rallied up to 9.70 and on that occasion the stock had been on a long-term downtrend which is not the case now, meaning this level has a better than even chance of holding up. Any daily close this week below 6.26 would weaken the chart additionally. Intra-week resistance is now found at 6.66 that if broken would suggest a rally up to 7.00 would be seen. Above that, decent resistance is found at 7.39 that if broken would suggest no further downside below last week's low at 6.03 would be seen. Decent and longer term pivotal resistance is found at 8.45. To the downside, there is very minor support at last week's low at 6.03, minor at 5.67, a slightly little bit stronger at 5.53, minor to decent at 5.18 and decent as well as long-term pivotal at 4.91. Probabilities continue to favor the bears but the bulls need to make a stand this week or face a possible drop to $5 and an extended period of trading idly. CNX generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 8-week low and then going above the previous week's high and closing in the green and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 16.45 will be seen this week. The positive reversal has now created a probable double low at 14.75 and 14.79 (last week's low) and if that proves to be the case with the stock going above last week's high at 16.45 this week, it should bring in new buying interest. Minor to perhaps decent intra-week resistance is found at 16.45 and then nothing until decent resistance is found at 17.51. An intra-week rally above 17.51 or a weekly close above 17.03 would give a buy signal that would likely mean the downside push is over and that the upside would be explored. A break below 14.75 would now give a new sell signal and be short-term negative at the very least. Hard stops should be at 14.65. Probabilities favor the bulls, given that there has been strong and consistent buying interest seen between 14.75 and 15.00. ENG made a new 5 month low last week, below the previous low at 1.45 (got down to 1.42). The fundamental reason for the drop was likely the weakness seen in the oil market with the drop down to 43.77. Nonetheless, there is buying interest being seen, given that the previous low weekly close at 1.49 was not broken on Friday, in spite of the fact the stock traded below that level during the week and that a successful retest of the 200-week MA was generated the previous week. Nonetheless, the stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 1.42 is expected to be seen. Decent intra-week support is found at 1.28-1.31, which is also found on a daily and weekly closing basis. Should the stock get anywhere close to that level this week, consideration should be given to adding or putting on new purchases with a 2.50-2.70 objective to be reached within 4-6 weeks. Probabilities favor bears this week but only for a intra-week drop to important support. FCEL made a new all-time weekly closing low this past week, having dropped another $.10 cents in price from last week's close. Nonetheless, for the second week in a row the bears were unable to break the psychological support at 1.00, having gotten down to that price again but not breaking it. Nonetheless, the stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week low at 1.00 is expected to be seen. The 1.28 level remains short-term pivotal as that is where the additional shares were sold at. Intra-week resistance is found at 1.20 and support at 1.00. Probabilities favor the bears. FSLR confirmed that a major low at 25.55 may now be in place, having generated a strong spike up rally this past week and closing in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 36.27 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock got up close to a minor to decent intra-week resistance at 36.41 (got up to 36.27) and backed off over $2, meaning that further upside may be limited. The stock did close on Friday just 30 points below the 200-day MA, currently at 34.85, and that was the high daily close for the week, suggesting the bulls will try to break the line this week. Nonetheless, unless the bulls can get the stock above the decent resistance at 38.30, the probabilities will favor the stock going back down to retest the gap area between 30.71 and 32.15 and perhaps even the low weekly close at 29.21 that when broken generated this latest rally. As such, consideration should be given to liquidating the positions on rally up to and above 36.41 and repurchasing around the $30 level. GE generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 6-month low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 29.31 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the positive reversal was not sufficient to generate a failure to follow through signal (needed to generate a daily close above 29.39), meaning that the chart remains short-term bearish. In addition, the stock seems to be in the process of building a bearish inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from 30.54 to 28.85 and the flag presently being built with the 29.31-29.39 area being the flag. A break below 28.85 would offer a 27.15 objective, should the flag get built. On an intra-week basis, there is minor resistance at 29.31 but on a daily closing basis, there is minor to perhaps decent resistance at 29.39. Support is found between 28.85 and 28.93. Below that level, there is minor support at 28.66, very slightly stronger at 28.33 and decent at 28.19. The weekly chart suggests that the stock will go above last week's high this week but by a very small amount (perhaps up to 29.39) and then continue downward. GS generated an uneventful inside week but the stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going above last week's high at 228.89 than below last week's low at 220.93. Nonetheless, the daily chart is giving mixed signals, inasmuch as a double high has been built at 229.36/228.89 that looks difficult to break since it has been the high for the past 3+ weeks (18 trading days) and there is still an open gap down between 219.18 and 220.30 that has a high probability of being closed. By the same token, a break above 229.39 would suggest that a rally up to 237.11 would occur. As such, a stop loss at 239.46 should be in place. To the downside, a break below 220.93 would suggest that at least the recent low at 213.18 would be tested but would likely get broken and a drop down to the 200-week MA, currently at 207.90, would occur. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. LVS failed to follow through to the upside and ended up having an uneventful inside week. The stock generated a red weekly close but still above the 200-week MA, currently at 58.55, that will be seen as a successful retest of that line if the stock closes in the green next Friday. By the same token, the stock straddled the line for a period of 9 weeks between September and November of last year without establishing a direction, suggesting the same could be seen at this time. The $60 demilitarized zone remains a decent resistance area that has been seen 6 times without breaking during the past 2 years, meaning that the bulls likely need some fundamental help to break it. With the company already having reported earnings, it does suggest the stock will need the indexes to go higher. To the upside, there is minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance at 59.24 that if broken might give the bulls the edge. To the downside, the most recent intra-week low at 57.31 looks like short-term pivotal support that if broken would push the stock down to the 200-week MA, currently at 55.75. Chart seems to suggest that the stock will continue to trade between $55 and $60 for the next few weeks. X followed through to the downside off of the previous weeks spike drop after the worse than expected earnings report. Nonetheless, the stock had the smallest trading range week in 7+ months, suggesting that the bears will not be able to take the stock much lower. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 20.77 than above last week's high at 22.51. Nonetheless, if the bulls can get above 22.51, the probabilities would favor the 200-week MA, currently at 23.50, being tested. The stock did generate a green daily close on Friday and near the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside. There is minor resistance at 21.90 but above that level there is open air until the gap area at 24.57 is reached. To the downside, there is minor to perhaps decent support at the $20 demilitarized zone. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but it is more of a flip of a coin, at least as far as whether the stock gets up to 23.50 or to 20.00 first. XON had an uneventful inside week but closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 20.45 will be seen this week. By the same token, there is minor to decent intra-week support between 20.20 and 20.39 that seems strong enough to hold unless some negative news comes out. The company reports earnings on Wednesday after the close and it's likely that earnings will help the traders decide on a short-term direction. The sister-in-the-industry ZIOP reported earnings last week and they came out as expected and no movement of consequence was seen. To the downside, a break below 20.20 shows no prior support until 18.72/18.90 is reached. To the upside, minor but possibly short-term pivotal resistance is found at 21.43 and then a bit stronger at 21.75. It is evident the traders are waiting for the earnings report to make decisions and as such will likely trade between 20.30 and 21.00 until the report comes out. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .0875 (new price 1.05). 2) GE - Shorted at 29.85. Stop loss now at 29.75. Stock closed on Friday at 29.22. 3) ENG - Averaged long at 1.865 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.50. 4) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.22. 5) GS - Shorted at 226.55 and at 228.75. Averaged short at 227.65. Stop loss at 229.46. Stock closed on Friday at 226.87. 6) FSLR - Averaged long at 37.52 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 34.54. 7) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.28. 8) CNX - Averaged long at 19.17 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 14.66. Stock closed on Friday at 15.74. 9) X - Averaged long at 33.42 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.49. 10) LVS - Shorted at 59.232. Stop loss now at 60.35. Stock closed on Friday at 58.75. 11) XON - Purchased at 18.57. Stop loss now at 18.31. Stock closed on Friday at 20.57.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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