Issue #532
June 18, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Short-Term Market Outlook Remains Mixed, Though Bears Might Have a Slight Edge.

DOW Friday closing price - 21394
SPX Friday closing price - 2438
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 6265

The indexes all generated a green weekly close on Friday but the one thing that was clear is that the NASDAQ outperformed the other indexes, having gone up almost 2% while the others gained marginally (.05% for the DOW and .3% for the SPX). Nonetheless and in spite of the green weekly closes across the board, the outlook for this week is mixed as the NASDAQ closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 6269 is likely to be seen, but the other 2 indexes closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting that they will likely be heading lower at some point during the week, below last week's lows. As such, the only thing that seems to be clear for this coming week is that the spread between the indexes will widen again, as was the case prior to a few weeks ago.

Normally the widening of the spread between the NASDAQ and the DOW/SPX would be considered a bullish statement for the market but given that the fundamental picture has not cleared up and that there has been no catalytic news to support higher prices, the probabilities favor fulfillment of the charts rather than a signal that the uptrend will resume or continue higher. The DOW and SPX recently made new all-time highs (after being the laggards) but are now showing signs of tiring while the NASDAQ is likely to be in a retest of its all-time high at 6341 that will likely fail to generate a new high unless new and positive fundamental news comes out.

With the NASDAQ likely to get up to the 6300-6305 level where resistance is found (6305 being the all-time high weekly close), it does suggest that at some point this week the index will be up as much as 30-35 points above Friday's close. Nonetheless, given that the index outperformed the other 2 by about 1.5% this past week and that this week will likely mimic that figure, and using the resistance levels of the other 2 indexes, the high for the week in the DOW should be somewhere between 21450 and 21470 and in the SPX around 2446.

The DOW and SPX should both get below last week's low (21333 and 2430 respectively) but given the action on Friday and the probability of the indexes starting out the week on a positive way, it should be strength at the beginning of the week and weakness at the end of the week.

The end of the month will be on Friday and given that the NASDAQ has generated 7 months in a row of green closes and more than that has not happened since 1995, the probabilities favor the index closing on Friday below last month's close at 6198 (a drop of at least 71 points from last Friday's close).

It should be noted that the last time the NASDAQ generated a negative monthly reversal off of a new all-time high was in the year 2000 and it did signal a major top to the index. Then again, that was the Dot.com era and there was a negative catalyst for the reversal, meaning that it is unlikely the same thing will occur now even if the index generates a negative reversal this month. On the other side of the coin and using the monthly chart, there has been absolutely no support built below since the Trump win in November, meaning that a drop back down to the previous all-time high weekly close at 5128 is a definite possibility if the index does get into a corrective phase. The last corrective phase of consequence took 8 months to fulfill, meaning that if the index is to start that kind of a corrective phase, it might not get down to 5128 until the beginning of 2118.

The only economic reports of any consequence are scheduled for the beginning of the week with Durable Goods Orders on Monday and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday. Though neither is likely to be catalytic, Durable Goods is expected to be negative and that would be the second month in a row of negative numbers and Consumer Confidence seems to have topped out a couple of months ago from a 15-year high and that does suggest that Confidence in the market and the uptrend is on the way down.

It should be noted that the VIX (volatility index) made a 10+-year low this month at 9.37 and still continues to trade near that low (closed at 10.02) on Friday. The all-time low is 8.60 which was made in December 2006, which was 11-months before the major high in the DOW was made at 14198, and from which a drop down to 6469 then occurred. The month previous to the 8.60 low (November), the index got down to 9.84 and the next month was a positive reversal month, getting down to 8.60 and then reversing up to 12.68 and a green close. If that same scenario is repeated now, it would suggest further downside next month (below 9.37) but a reversal upwards by the end of the month. What that would mean to the DOW (if the same scenario as in 2006 is repeated) is a new all-time high in July by a small amount, followed by about a 6% correction over the next couple of months, meaning a drop back down near the 20000 level by August/September.

Little of consequence is expected to happen this week, other than perhaps some clues/signals by the end of the week as to what to expect for the summer. Probabilities though, favor some strength (though minor) at the beginning of the week, followed by some weakness at the end of the week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

In keeping with the Goldman Sachs recommendations to shift into undervalued high Sharpe ratio stocks over the stocks that had been moving previously, there is 1 mention this week.

PURCHASES

DFS Friday Closing Price - 60.04

DFS is a stock on the Goldman Sachs list of stocks with a high Sharpe rating. The stock has been on a short-term downtrend since the all-time high at 74.33 was made in January. The stock got down to 57.82 just 4 weeks ago, meaning that a drop of 22% from the highs has occurred and that now likely means that the stock is no longer in an uptrend (likely into a sideways trend) until some new fundamental positive occurs.

Nonetheless and over the past couple of weeks, DFS has bounced back up to a high at 61.62, suggesting that the recent low at 57.82 found some renewed buying interest. The reason for that is simple as the 200-week MA is currently at 58.35 and without some new negative event occurring, that line is not likely to get broken until the previous all-time high at 66.72 (from December 2014) is retested successfully. Simply stated, the chart strongly suggests that for the next few weeks (or couple of months) the stock is likely to trade sideways between $58 and $66.

DFS closed near the lows of the week on Friday and further downside below last week's low at 59.80 is likely to be seen this week. If that occurs, there are 2 possible scenarios with 1) being a retest of the recent lows as well as of the MA line before heading back up to retest the previous high at 66.72 or 2) the downtrend will continue and a break of the 200-week MA will ensue. The probability favors the former as there seems to be no reason at this time, both chart-wise and fundamentally, to believe that a downtrend in the stock or in the index market is going to occur.

DFS now has a 3-year history of the $59-$61 level being pivotal (based on a weekly close), having been support on 3 different occasions and resistance on 4 different occasions, meaning that something fundamentally negative has to occur for it to be broken to the downside since it has been trading to the upside of that level for the last 8 months.

If DFS does get below last week's low but does not break the recent low at 57.82 (weekly close at 58.91) and then rallies, it will be seen as a successful retest of that low as well as of the MA and would give the traders chart reasons to buy with the upside objective of testing the previous all-time high from December 2015. That is the most likely scenario.

Purchases of DFS between 58.74 and 59.50 and using a stop loss at 57.62 and having a 66.72 objective will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

HONORABLE MENTION PURCHASE

ORLY Friday Closing Price - 220.08

ORLY is another one of the 14 stocks on the list of Goldman Sachs high Sharpe rating. Nonetheless, I am putting under the list of "honorable mention purchase" instead of the Purchase mentions simply because I can give no clear risk/reward ratio on the trade.

ORLY has been on a downtrend since July of last year when it reached an all-time high of 292.84. The downtrend has generated all the requirements for a major top to have been formed, meaning that the high was tested successfully on 4 occasions as the downtrend continued. Last week, the stock broke an important and strong intra-week support at 225.12 and also confirmed the break of the weekly close support at 232.30 with a second close in a row below that level. In addition, the stock closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 217.99 will be seen this week.

With all these negatives, it seems highly unlikely that anyone would be a buyer or ORLY this week, except for one fact and that is that the 200-week MA is currently at 215.45 and that is a line that has not been seen, much less broken since February 2009 (8 years).

Somewhere along the line, the probabilities favor ORLY going back up to at least the weekly close support at 232.30 that held the stock up for 2 years, meaning that if the stock does get down to the MA line that a rally of at least $15-$17 will be seen. In addition and on an intra-week basis, the stock has no resistance above until the $250 level is reached, meaning that a rally of as much as $35 (15%) can be seen if the MA line holds up. The problem though is that there is no intraweek or weekly close support anywhere close by (closest support is at 202.44 and that is considered minor) where an intelligent stop loss can be placed, meaning there is no risk/reward ratio that can be given.

Nonetheless, the probabilities of ORLY breaking the 200-week MA on a weekly closing basis are very small, so I am giving it as an "honorable purchase mention" for those that want to trade one of the stocks that Goldman Sachs has given as "undervalued and with a high Sharpe rating". It is not an official mention though.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AMTD made yet another new 17-week high but only by 11 points above last week's close, suggesting the buying interest is starting to wane. In addition, the stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going below last week's low at 40.31 than above last week's high at 41.32. The stock did close on the highs of the day on Friday, suggesting that like the indexes it will start the week on a positive note. Nonetheless, if the bulls fail to take the stock above last week's high by Wednesday, the probabilities will shift to the bears. The stock broke above the 200-day MA, currently at 39.40, on June 9th after 4 weeks of trading below the line, meaning that there is a decent probability that the traders will be testing the line before considering further upside. Minor support is found at last week's low at 40.31, stronger at 39.60 and again at 38.89. A break below 38.89 would be a negative sign. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week but the bulls are likely to have a small edge at the beginning of the week.

ARNA generated a new 8-month intra-week high this past week but the bulls failed to confirm the breakout, failing to generate a new 8-month weekly close high above 16.50. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 12.51 than above last week's high at 17.75. By the same token, the close was a couple of points above the 200-day MA, currently at 14.80, suggesting that the fall back to this level could end up being the required retest of the MA line that had not been broken to the upside since February. The action seen last week was bullish and was supported by an increase in volume. In addition, 2 rating companies have given a buy recommendation over the past 2 weeks with a $40 and $50 objective, suggesting that the rally/breakout is valid and that the weakness seen on Friday was mostly technical in nature to retest the break of the MA. The stock did close near the lows of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside. Pivotal and perhaps decent intra-week support is found at 13.50. A break of that level would be considered indicative of weakness. Resistance is found at 16.75 and at 17.75. A break above 16.75 would likely give the bulls the edge again. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

AXP made another new 23-month intra-week and weekly closing high this past week and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last high at 82.81 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and on a possible negative note, the bulls failed to go above the 28-month intra-week high at 83.54 or close above the same weekly closing high at 82.70 that represents an area of resistance that if broken would suggest a return to a long-term bullish view but if not broken would likely mean the stock is in a sideways trading range between $75/$77 and $82.50/83.50, which is the most likely scenario. Like with the indexes, the probabilities favor some strength early in the week and a rally above last week's high at 82.81 (but not above 83.54) and weakness toward the latter part of the week. It is important to note that there is no support below until 79.62 is reached, meaning that if selling interest is uncovered this week, a fast drop back down to the $80 level is likely to be seen.

CLF made a new 4-week intra-week high after having made a new 8-month intraweek low the previous week, suggesting that a level of support has been uncovered that generated new buying interest. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 6.77 is expected to be seen. It also needs to be mentioned that a buy signal was given on the weekly close chart, with the stock having closed on Friday above the 2 previous high weekly closes at 6.09 and 6.49. Using the weekly closing chart, there is no resistance above until 8.11/8.47 is reached, which is considered decent resistance and unlikely to get broken without some change of the fundamental picture. Reaching that level though is not expected to happen in less than 4 weeks. Intraweek resistance is found at 6.95 and at 7.39 that is likely to slow the rally down a bit. Nonetheless, having given a buy signal this week, a retest of the200-day MA, currently at 7.75, is now a likely scenario to occur over the next 2-3 weeks. Likely pivotal intraweek support is now found at 6.22. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CLB fell 8.1% this past week after the bulls were unable to follow through on the previous week's close near the highs of the week due to the price of oil dropping. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 97.75 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, there is a decent chance that oil has found a level of support that will hold up and that a green close will occur next Friday, meaning the same could occur to CLB. Intraweek support is found at 96.30, at 95.77 and at 94.23 though a break below 96.30 would be a new 52-week low and would further weaken the chart, suggesting the bulls will not allow the break to occur. If buying support is uncovered this week, there is no intra-week resistance above until 104.93 is reached, meaning a fast pop up could be seen if support is found. Probabilities favor the bears at the beginning of the week, but some recovery could be seen by the end of the week. Consideration should be given to adding positions around 97.00 with a stop loss at 96.20.

ENG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 13-month intra-week low and then closing in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high 1.19 will be seen this week. The positive reversal was supported with an increase in volume, suggesting the rally might have some legs to it, especially considering that the stock shows strong chart support around the $1 level and last week the stock got down to 1.06. As far as resistance is concerned, the chart shows very minor intra-week resistance at 1.29 and minor to perhaps decent at 1.35. On a daily and weekly closing basis though, resistance is minor to decent and likely pivotal as well at 1.29-1.31. Intra-week support should now be found at 1.15/1.16. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

FCEL made a new 8-week high this past week and into the gap between 1.20 and 1.55 that got created in April after a disappointing news report on a failed bid. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range, leaving the door open for a rally above last week's high at 1.30 or below last week's low at 1.11. Nonetheless, the stock should start the week on a down note as it did generate a negative reversal day on Friday, having made the high of the week that day and then closing in the red, suggesting further downside below Friday's low at 1.20 will be seen on Monday. The stock has not yet done enough to generate new buying interest as the gap up at 1.55 needs to be closed and a weekly close above 1.65 would need to occur for the bulls to get any kind of an edge. Nonetheless, the stock has now spent 25 trading days without making a new all-time low and has built a minor uptrend with 2 points on it that will not be broken unless the stock gets below 1.07 on an intra-week basis, meaning that the probabilities continue to favor the bulls for the time being.

GS generated a second negative reversal week, having gone above the previous week's negative reversal high at 226.94 with a rally to 227.04 and then closing below the previous week's low at 219.65. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 216.46 is expected to be seen this week. There is no intra-week support until 213.18 is reached, meaning that is a highly likely target for this week. Nonetheless, the stock closed on Friday slightly below the 200-day MA, currently at 217.30, meaning that a green close on Monday could generate new buying interest as it would mean a successful retest of the line. The 213.18 level is an important and pivotal level, not only on an intra-week basis but also on a weekly closing basis, as it was the previous 8-year weekly closing high that when broken generated the rally to the all-time high at 255.15 that was made in February. A weekly close below 213.18 would open the door for a drop down to the 200-week MA, currently at $184. To the upside, there is no resistance found until 225.45, meaning that this coming week is short-term pivotal. A successful retest of the 200-day MA could give the bulls the edge, while a confirmed break of that line would give the bears the edge. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

KO generated the 3rd week in a row of red weekly closes and closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 45.03 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bears did accomplish one additional benefit, inasmuch as the stock rallied above the previous week's high and if the stock goes below last week's low this coming week, a successful retest of the 14-month high at 46.09 will have occurred. Short-term pivotal intra-week support is found at 44.80. If broken, there is no support below until 43.94 is reached. To the upside, minor resistance is found 45.48 and the decent at last week's high at 45.86. The stock did close near the highs of the day on Friday and like with the indexes, probabilities favor the stock moving up at the beginning of the week and dropping at the end of the week. Probabilities favor the bears.

MNK gave a small buy signal, having closed above the most recent high weekly close at 43.28. Nonetheless, the stock did exactly the same thing 8 weeks ago and yet no follow through was seen and the downtrend continued. The stock did close on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 46.43 is expected to be seen this week. Important and pivotal intra-week resistance is found at 48.73, as well as at 46.92 on a weekly closing basis. If both or either of those are broken this week, another and stronger buy signal will be given. It is important to note that the stock made a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing low 3 weeks ago and that break has now been negated, suggesting that a short-covering rally of consequence could be seen, especially considering the 2-year and 71% drop in price seen from the 135.25 high that was made in March 2015. Intra-week support is now found at 42.67 and at 41.57 that if both are broken would mean the bears are back in control. As such, consideration can now be given to raising the stop loss to 41.47.

RIG got down to the all-time low at 7.66 (seen in February 2016) this past week and bounced up to close just slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting about a 50-50 chance of going above last week's high at 8.68 or below last week's low at 7.67. The stock did make a new all-time low weekly close on Friday, below the previous all-time low weekly close at 8.33. The stock has now generated 7 red weekly closes in a row and 20 out of the last 24 and is now severely oversold and at a level of support (the all-time intraweek low) that suggests that further downside will only occur if oil continues lower and oil is also at a level of support this coming week that is unlikely to break unless the fundamental picture worsens and expectations are that things will get a bit better this week. If the stock gets above last week's high at 8.68 this coming week and it closes above 8.33 next Friday, a double bottom will have been built and the break of weekly close support will be negated. With the stock down 83% over the past 4 years and 54% since December, a double bottom would suggest a strong short-covering rally would likely occur. To the upside, there is minor intra-week resistance at 10.88, minor again at 11.65 and minor to decent at 13.02. Using the daily chart, pivotal resistance is found at 9.22 that if broken would likely open the door for a rally to the 200-day MA, currently at 11.80. It is evident the stock is at a pivotal level of support, meaning that a new low below 7.66, especially if another red close below last week's close at 8.09 is seen, would be an additional negative. Probabilities are evenly matched this week but it does seem to be a pivotal week.

X had a good week, having generated a small buy signal when it closed on Friday above the most recent high weekly close at 21.82. In addition, the green weekly close also made the previous week's close at 20.16 into a successful retest of the 7-month low weekly close at 19.56, which in turn upheld the long term support at $20 that goes all the way back to 2009. The stock closed near the high of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 22.52 will be seen this week. Intra-week resistance is found at 22.74 but it is unlikely to stop the rally as the 200-week MA, currently at 23.60 is likely to work as a magnet. In fact, the gap area between 30.06 and 24.37 is likely to be enough of a magnet to draw the stock up to test the bottom of the gap and if that level (24.37) is broken, there is no resistance above until 27.64 is reached, which is also where the 200-day MA is currently located. To the downside, minor but likely short-term pivotal support is found at 20.42. Probabilities favor the bulls this week for a rally at least up to 23.60 but possibly up to 24.37. What happens thereafter is not clear.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .10 (new price 1.20).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.19.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 14.88.

4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.62.

5) GS - Averaged short at 223.85 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 227.35. Stock closed on Friday at 217.19.

6) X - Averaged long at 29.765 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 22.25.

7) RIG - Averaged long at 9.22 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.09.

8) AMTD - Averaged short at 38.275. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 40.78.

9) KO - Shorted at 45.48. Stop loss at 46.11. Stock closed on Friday at 45.25.

10) AXP - Shorted at 80.03. No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 82.22.

11) MNK - Purchased at 43.75 and at 42.90. Averaged long at 43.325 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 40.93. Stock closed on Friday at 46.32.

12) CLB - Purchased at 99.37. Stop loss at 96.20. Stock closed on Friday at 98.23.

13) RIG - Shorted at 8.24. Purchased at 7.71. Profit of $159 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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