Issue #531 ![]() June 18, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Mixed Signals Given by Indexes. Traders Unsure of Direction!
DOW Friday closing price - 21384
The indexes once again gave mixed signals this past week with the DOW making a new all-time intra-week and weekly closing high and rallying an additional .4% above the previous week's close and the SPX only rallying .1% above the previous weeks close but not making any new highs and the NASDAQ dropping 1% below the previous week's close.
Since Trump won the election, the DOW has gone up 16.4%, the SPX has gone up 14.4% and the NASDAQ has gone up 18% but over the past 2 weeks the unwinding of the spread between the NAZ and the DOW has narrowed 3.5%, suggesting that the spread between the 2 indexes may continue to narrow until such a time that they both get back to where they were prior to the Trump election. With Health Care and Tax Reform looking more difficult to accomplish now, the traders are likely taking a more defensive approach and evening the playing field before allowing the indexes to renew their normal peaks and valleys type of trading, especially at this time where there is a dearth of economic news and direction is unclear.
The weekly closes on Friday also left the traders confused as to what to expect this coming week as the NASDAQ followed through on its negative reversal with another red weekly close and closing in the bottom half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside will be seen this week below last week's low but the DOW doing the opposite and extending its rally and closing on the highs of the week suggesting further upside will be seen this week.
The only thing that is somewhat certain for this week is that the unwinding of the NAZ/DOW spread will continue as there are no economic reports of consequence due out that will help or hinder either index. The big question for the week will be whether the NASDAQ weakness or the DOW strength will prevail at the end of the week.
Chart-wise, the only thing that stands out at this time is that the 6000 level in the NASDAQ is a magnet, especially since there is absolutely to support of consequence until that level is reached. Taking into considering the magnetism of that level, the weakness seen in the NAZ, which has been the leader for the past 8 years, and the further unwinding of the spread between the 2 indexes to the point they might get to even, it would suggest that a drop down to 6000 in the NAZ would cause the DOW to fall back to around 21270, which would then mean that both indexes will have rallied 15.1% from the close the week before Trump won the election.
As such, the NASDAQ will likely be the key index this week. Intra-week resistance will be found at 6237 that is unlikely to be broken or even reached but if broken would change the outlook. Minor but likely short-term indicative resistance using the intra-day and intra-week charts is found at 6170/6175 that is likely to be seen but could easily be the high for the week, meaning that a 6170 down to 6000 trading scenario for this coming week, or for the next 2 weeks, seems the most likely to occur.
The DOW is likely to make another new all-time intra-week high but also likely to be by a minor amount and close in the red next Friday but without doing anything of consequence. The SPX will probably follow along without doing anything on its own but with a slight bearish bias.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There are no mentions this week even though the overall market is likely to have a slight bearish bias. The mixed signals being given will not give the traders enough confidence to be aggressive in either direction, meaning that at this time keeping the money on the sidelines makes sense.
Nonetheless, the sell mentions from last week remains viable, if and when the stock reach the desired entry points (unlikely).
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Updates
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Updates on Held Stocks |
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes |
AMTD made a new 16-week high and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 40.98 will be seen. Nonetheless, the stock made the new high on Wednesday but failed to follow through on Thursday or Friday, suggesting that some retracement will occur before the traders attempt to generate further upside. Minor support is found at the $40 demilitarized zone, a bit stronger at the most recent intra-week low and last week's low at 39.60 and then decent at the 200-day MA, currently at 39.20, which does include decent daily close support between 39.10 and 39.24. The strategy is now to cover the short positions but due to expectations of some weakness to be seen in the indexes over the next week or two, the stock is likely to get back down to somewhere between 39.20 and 39.70 where covering of the shorts should be considered. To the upside, intra-week resistance is found at 41.54 and daily close resistance at 41.18 that if broken, should cause covering of the short positions to occur immediately. ARNA announced a 1-10 reverse split that brought about some new selling interest. Reverse splits by nature are considered negatives by the traders. On a positive note, the day after the split was announced, a second company started coverage on the stock and gave a buy mention with a $4 ($40 on the new price) upside objective, which in turn ameliorated the selling interest. On the daily closing chart, an inverted Head and Shoulders formation is now in place with the left shoulder at 12.70, the Head at 11.50 and the right shoulder at 13.30. The neckline is presently at 14.00, meaning that if broken, the formation will offer a 16.50 objective. Monday could be an important day given that the breakaway gap between 11.80 and 12.20 was tested successfully with a drop down on Thursday to 12.20 and a rally and green close on Friday with a close at the highs of the day at 13.10. If the stock gaps up on Monday and then goes ahead and gets above the neckline at 14.00, it will be seen as a breakaway/runaway gap formation, a buy signal, and a break of the neckline on the inverted H&S formation. A drop below Thursdays low at 12.20 would now be a negative and reason to consider liquidation. AXP made another new 22-month weekly closing high as well as a new 14-week intra-week and daily closing high on Friday. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 81.45 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock is now nearing a level of resistance from 2 previous low weekly closes and 1 previous intra-week high between 82.00 and 82.70 that is unlikely to get broken at this time. With the indexes likely to begin to see some selling or profit taking interest and the stock reaching levels that are unlikely to be broken at this time, the probabilities favor the stock getting into a trading range like what was seen between February and July 2015 between $77 and $82. If the $82 level does uncover selling resistance the 200-week MA, currently at 77.60, will beckon. As such, holding on for another $1 move to the upside, considering that there will probably be a $3-$4 move to the downside thereafter makes sense. CLF made a new 8-month intraweek low but the bears failed to generate any follow through and the stock rallied enough to close in the middle of the week's trading range, leaving the door open for either a rally above last week's high at 6.45 or below last week's low at 5.56. Nonetheless, this is now the second time that the bears attempted to break the decent weekly close support between 5.33 and 5.57 and have failed. In addition, the chart now shows a successful retest of the 8-month low daily close at 5.69, having closed at 5.81 on Thursday and a green close on Friday. A daily close above 6.30, which is now a decent daily close resistance level with 3 high daily closes at that price since August, would now give a buy signal which would strongly suggest the worst is over. To the downside, last week's low at 5.56 is now pivotal support. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls. ENG generated a new 14-month weekly closing low and a new 11-month intra-week low and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.13 will be seen this week. With the stock having broken the decent support at 1.29 a few weeks ago the bears are now in control and the probabilities have increased that the 2-point 4-year uptrend line, currently at .90, is now the target of the present downtrend. There is some support at 1.07 (1.10 on a weekly closing basis) that is likely to generate a bounce back up to 1.30 and a trading range between 1.07 and 1.30 for 3-6 weeks before a new break occurs with the trend line as the objective (likely to be around .93 at that time. Bears remain in control at this time. FCEL trading has almost come to a standstill as the traders await news. The stock seems to be in a trading range between 1.00 and 1.15 with .95 being pivotal support and 1.20 being pivotal resistance. It is likely the stock will continue to trade in this range until some new fundamental news comes out. GS generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high and then closing in the red and in the bottom half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 219.65 will be seen this week. More importantly and using the weekly closing chart, the zig-zag downtrend continued when the stock generated a red weekly close and the bulls failed to close above the most recent high weekly close at 223.53 even though the stock traded above that level intra-day every day of the week. The 200-day MA is currently at 216.00, meaning that is highly likely target for this week but there is no intra-week support until 213.18 is reached, meaning that the stock could get down that low intra-week during the week. Intra-week resistance is found at 225.45 and pivotal at 226.94. Possible and perhaps even probable trading range for this coming week could be something like 223.53 to 213.18. Probabilities favor the bears. KO came within 2 points of generating a positive reversal week, given than the stock made a new 16-day low but then rallied to close just 1 point below the previous week's close. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 45.45 is expected to be seen this week. On a negative note, the stock seems to be in the process of building a bearish inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from 46.06 top 44.80 and the flag being the action seen the past 2 weeks with the rally up to 45.45. A break of the bottom of the flag at 44.80 would offer an objective of 44.19. Nonetheless, the probabilities do favor the bulls this week as the stock gapped down on June 7th between 45.75 and 45.70 and the traders are likely to attempt this week to close the gap as well as generate a retest of the 46.06 high. Overall though, the chart remains short-term bearish with a minimum downside objective of 43.94. RIG generated an uneventful week trading mostly the same trading range as the previous week (had a trading range between 8.41 and 9.22 whereas the previous week it was 8.38 to 9.21). The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 8.41 will be seen. Nonetheless, at these levels of long-term support it does seem that the bears need some negative news to be successful in further downside below the all-time weekly closing low at 8.33. The traders are waiting to see what happens to oil that is also close to an important support at 43.76. Oil is likely to show a bit of weakness at the beginning of the week but then turn around and generate a green weekly close next Friday, meaning that the stock is likely to do the same. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 9.33 that if broken would likely cause the stock to rally back up to the $10 level. The stock did generate a positive reversal day on Friday, having made a new 5-day low and then closing in the green and on the highs of the day, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside, above Friday's high at 8.66. If that does occur, Friday's low at 8.44 will become a successful retest of the 8.38 multi-year low, meaning that the bulls may get some new chart ammunition. Probabilities favor the bulls. X generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 7-week high and then going below the previous week's low and closing near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 19.75 will be seen this week. The failure to get up to test the 200-week MA, currently at 23.50, is disappointing to the bulls but if the stock does go below last week's low but does not break the recent 8-month low at 18.55 and turns around to close in the green next Friday, it will be seen as the required/needed retest of the low, which in turn would give the bulls enough ammunition to retest the weekly MA line. The $20 has been an important support for the past 8 years and it seems that the bears would need additional negative information to generate a clear break of that area. Intra-week support is found at 18.55 but below that level there is no support until minor support at 17.05. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls this week for a positive reversal week.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .09 (new price 1.10). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.15. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 3.725 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.31. 4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 5.98. 5) GS - Shorted at 224.90. Averaged short at 223.85 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 227.35. Stock closed on Friday at 221.81. 6) X - Averaged long at 29.765 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 20.16. 7) RIG - Averaged long at 9.22 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.62. 8) AMTD - Averaged short at 38.275. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 40.67. 9) KO - Shorted at 45.48. Stop loss at 46.11. Stock closed on Friday at 45.31. 10) AXP - Shorted at 80.03. No stop loss at this time. Stock closed on Friday at 81.45. 11) ZIOP - Liquidated at 5.71. Purchased at 5.80. Loss on the trade of $9 per 100 shares plus commissions.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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