Issue #536
July 23, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Bulls in Total Control. Earnings Supporting Rally!

DOW Friday closing price - 21580
SPX Friday closing price - 2472
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 6387

Mixed results were seen this past week with the DOW generating an inside week and a red weekly close and both the SPX and the NASDAQ generating new all-time intraweek and weekly closing highs. The mixed results suggest that speculation regarding the earnings quarter remains strongly positive, especially for the stocks that had previously led the market the past few years (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, FB, NFLX, and PCLN).

The NASDAQ was the leader this past week, having moved up 1.3% above the previous week's close, compared to the SPX that moved up .9% and the DOW that fell .03%. Nonetheless, the leadership of the index was mostly due to the much better than expected earnings report on NFLX that caused the stock to rally 15% above its previous week's close and that may not be repeated this week as it is unlikely that the other stocks in that index will be so much better above expectations as NFLX was, meaning this coming week is likely to be more subdued than last week was.

The NASDAQ will continue to be in the limelight this coming week as GOOGL reports earnings on Monday after the close, FB on Wednesday after the close and AMZN on Thursday after the close. Nonetheless, the biggest bulk of the important earnings report for the quarter comes out this week, meaning that by the end of the week the traders will likely have a good idea of how good the quarter is likely to be. Expectations are that overall, stocks will show an 8% increase over last year. Anything above that would be a positive and anything below that a negative.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, all the indexes are reaching levels of psychological resistance that are likely to require additional positives (above the earnings report) to break. In the DOW between 21700 and 22000, in the SPX at 2500 and in the NASDAQ at 6500.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW doesn't show any pivotal support until 21197 but on a daily closing basis a confirmed close below the previous all-time high daily close at 21528 will weaken the chart and the resolve of the bulls. On the SPX, the pivotal intraweek support is down at 2405 but like with the DOW, any daily close below the previous all-time high daily close at 2439 would also weaken the chart. In the NASDAQ the strong support is down at 6081 but like with the other indexes, a daily close below the previous all-time daily closing high at 6321 will weaken the chart.

One of the chart items that the traders will be watching closely in the SPX and in the NASDAQ is the recent runaway gaps that were built. In the SPX the gap is between 2460 and 2465 and in the NAZ it is between 6344 and 6365. Closure of those gaps would likely be a clear indication that the rally has run out of steam.

Probabilities favor all indexes heading higher this week, at least through Thursday when most of the important earnings reports have come out. Thereafter, the probabilities will begin to favor the bears as the adage of "buy the anticipation and sell the fact" will likely come into play. By all historic standards, the indexes are at valuations that in the past have usually generated corrections. As such and as soon as the bulk of the important earnings report for the quarter are out, the probabilities will favor selling interest or profit taking occurring.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

I do believe the adage about "buying the anticipation and selling the fact" will come into play this week and that means that short positions will be attractive. Nonetheless, with so many uncertainties at the beginning of the week regarding how good above expected earnings could be, it is impossible to offer sell mentions before some of these reports come out. As such, there are no sell mentions in the newsletter at this time (will be given on the message board when the timing is right).

There is one purchase mention today that does not have much to do with the overall market (more to do with oil).

PURCHASES

CLB generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high but then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 105.27 will be seen this week. The negative reversal was based on oil generating a negative reversal week as well and this stock being tied to the price of oil.

Oil is presently in a trading range, likely between $44 and $47, meaning that there is no clear up or down trend in place, suggesting that CLB is likely to do the same. By the same token, the recent important low and bottoming action in oil and in the stock suggests that there are higher probabilities of upward movement than downward movement, meaning that dips are being bought.

Just recently, CLB made a new 17-month intraweek low at 97.59 and then proceeded to rally up to last week's high at 109.63. Nonetheless, that multi-month low has not yet had a retest of it, meaning that this move down is likely to end up being that needed/required retest. Minor intraweek support is found at 103.88 and minor to decent at 102.50. Nonetheless, the probabilities are high that the 102.50 level of support will be seen, given than there is also weekly close support at that level that would fulfill all the chart requirements to the downside to a tee, not only intraweek but on a weekly closing basis. Below 102.50, there is again minor to decent support between 99.31 and 99.42.

To the upside, CLB shows minor resistance between 106.38 and 106.52 and then decent between 109.63 and 109.81. By the same token, there is multiple high resistance in that area (3 previous highs) that suggest strongly that they will be broken the next time they are visited. Above that area, there is no resistance of consequence until minor resistance is found at 116.49.

The probabilities strongly favor CLB being in a trading range between $100-$102 and $116-$120, meaning that dips down to support should be bought and rallies to resistance should be sold.

Purchases of CLB at 102.51 or lower and using a stop loss at 99.38 and having a $116-$120 objective will offer a 4-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA generated a non-eventful inside week, having traded within the previous week's high and low, but on a possible positive note the stock did close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 24.63 will be seen this week. On a negative note though, the bulls have now failed 2 weeks in a row to close above the pivotal weekly close resistance at 24.60 and that means the recent positive news still has unanswered questions surrounding it. It is interesting to note that the week's high was 24.63, meaning the traders are well aware of the importance of that level. The red weekly close could also become a small short-term negative if another red close is seen next Friday as it would make last weeks close at 24.28 into a confirmed successful retest of that resistance level and that would suggest that the traders would look to test the intra-week support at 20.00 and/or the weekly close resistance at 21.60 before generating a new try to the upside. Nonetheless, the close near the highs of the week suggests that the buying interest remains strong enough that the bears did not gain any additional edge this week, meaning that the stock will start the week with a very slight edge to the bulls. As far as what levels the traders may be looking at this week for clues, on the 10-minute chart there is resistance at 25.00 and support at 23.14, meaning that a break of either level will likely generate about a $1 move in whatever direction is broken (up to 26.00 or down to the recent low at 22.15) and a break of those supports would likely bring about a rally to the previous high at 27.86 or down to the 20.00-21.60 level. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls.

CLF generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 15-week high but then closing in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.23 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the reversal was not totally unexpected given that the stock got up to the 200-day MA, currently at 7.85, with a high at 7.89 and found some automatic chart selling there. Old intra-week support (from October 2014) is found at 7.00 and more recent support is found at 6.66, meaning that one of those levels is likely to be seen this week but would not mean that the recent uptrend is over (just backing and filling). Likely pivotal support is found at 6.45 that if broken would be seen as a negative. To the upside, there is minor intraweek resistance at 7.67 and then short-term pivotal at last week's high at 7.89. The probabilities favor a drop down to at least 7.00 this week but with an outside chance of a drop down to 6.66/6.70. Nonetheless, the short-term trend is up and the bulls still have the edge for further upside with 8.45 or even 9.36 as objectives to be reached within the next 2-6 weeks.

DFS made a new 13-trading day high on Friday and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 62.86 will be seen this week. The stock did gap up on Friday between 61.56 and 61.70 that is a cause for minor concern as gaps usually are closed. Nonetheless, it seems (not 100% sure) that the gap came in because of a credit rating increase for the company and if that is the case and the most recent high at 63.28 is broken, the gap will be seen as a breakaway gap. On another positive note, the stock made a new 13-week weekly closing high and on a weekly closing basis there is no resistance until 63.81 (64.44 on an intra-week basis) is reached and that is a minor to perhaps decent but old resistance from July 2014 that the traders may not pay a lot of attention to. Decent resistance is found up at 66.27 (66.75 on an intra-week basis). The stock now shows a successful retest of the recent 8-month low at 58.72 with the drop down the previous week to 60.32, followed by last week's rally and green close. This does mean that the stop loss can now be raised to 59.65. On another possible positive note, the stock will break out of a bullish flag formation with a 65.78 objective if the bulls can get above 63.28 this week. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week low and then making a new 10-week intraweek high and closing in the green and above the previous week's high. Nonetheless, the reversal lost some of its glimmer when the stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range and the bulls failed to generate a failure signal, having closed on Friday below the pivotal weekly close resistance at 1.28. The likely reason for the failure to close above 1.31 was that oil ended up the week in a slightly disappointing way and this stock is somewhat tied to the price of oil. Nonetheless, it was a positive week and the probabilities favor the bulls, especially since the weakness in oil is not likely to go very far. The first course of action for the week will likely be to the downside with 1.20 as the likely objective. Resistance is found at 1.37, at 1.39 and at last week's high at 1.46. If oil turns around by the end of the week, the stock will likely generate a 1.20 to 1.54 trading range. First objective of this rally remains either 1.63 or 1.73, which represent the 200-week MA and the 200-day MA, respectively.

FCEL generated the 9th week in a row of green weekly closes, which is something that has not happened in the last 10 years (8 weeks in a row was the previous record). Nonetheless and on a possibly negative note, the bulls have not yet been able to close the gap up at 1.55 and therefore the record of green weekly closes in a row remains unimpressive. The stock did close in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.49 is likely to be seen, meaning that there is a decent chance the gap will be closed this week, which in turn would mean the .80 low seen in May would be deemed a bottom to the downtrend. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.70 and short-term pivotal support is found at 1.18. The ability of the bulls to generate green weekly closes suggests that another one will be seen this week and that the gap will be closed. Nonetheless, the bulls still need to do a lot more than establish a bottom before new buying interest is seen.

KO confirmed the positive reversal seen the previous week with another green close and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 45.07 will be seen this week. On another positive note for the bulls, the stock generated a positive reversal day on Friday, having gone below Thursday's low and then closing above Thursday's high. As such, the probabilities now favor the stock moving up to at least the 45.45 level and if that resistance level is broken, the stock could get back up to the 45.89 level. In addition, the up move seen the past 2 weeks has pushed back reaching the downside objective at least 3-5 weeks, meaning that the probabilities favor the stock doing more idling than moving. With the stock not offering a lot of profit potential, at least not in the short term, I am likely to cover the short positions (with a small profit) this week and move to other trades.

MNK broke the neckline of the bullish inverted Head & Shoulders formation this past week and closed near the highs of the week suggesting further upside above last week's high at 47.86 will be seen this week. In addition, a strong buy signal was given as the stock made a new 4-month intraweek and daily/weekly closing high. The neckline was at 47.04 (46.32 on both the daily and weekly closing chart) and offers a 55.28 objective on an intraweek basis and a 53.01 objective on a daily and weekly closing basis. There is no intra-week resistance above until minor (perhaps very minor) resistance is found at 52.00. Nonetheless, on a daily closing basis, the 200-day MA is currently 50.50 and that line will be an important determinant as to whether the H&S formation objective will be reached or not, given that the objective should be reached in 3-5 weeks and if the MA prevents the rally from continuing higher, it may throw a "monkey wrench" into the formation. Nonetheless and using the weekly closing chart, there is absolutely no resistance above until 54.74 is reached. That resistance though, is considered decent as it was not only a spike high close after the stock broke down in November but also represents a previous and important low weekly close support at 54.62. Simply stated, the stock should continue higher to the $55 level over the next few weeks and then a correction occur. Any failure now, followed by a daily and/or weekly close below 46.32 would be a strong negative. Probabilities strongly favor the bulls.

RIG generated a buy signal on the daily closing chart this past week, having closed on Wednesday and Thursday above the previous high daily close from July 3rd at 8.67. In addition, the stock also generated a failure signal against the bears, having negated the break of the previous all-time low weekly close at 8.33 by closing on Friday at 8.51. The failure signal still needs to be confirmed next Friday with another close above 8.33. The stock did close slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher possibility of going below last week's low at 8.19 than above last week's high at 8.99. Nonetheless, the weakness seen on Friday was due to the mini sell off in oil and since oil is likely to move lower this week, the stock will also likely show weakness at the beginning of the week. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek support is found at 8.38 and then minor at 8.19. The double bottom at 7.66/7.67 has not yet been tested on the weekly chart and only tested in a very minor way (with the 8.19 low) on the daily chart, meaning that a drop back down to around the 8.00 level could occur. Resistance is found at 8.83 and at 8.99. Overall, the chart looks like a major bottom has been built and that the probabilities midterm favor the bulls. Nonetheless, for the next week or two, the probabilities favor choppy action (backing and filling) with perhaps a slight bearish bias.

X generated follow through to the upside last week on an intraweek basis but as far as the weekly close is concerned, the bulls were not able to make a statement, given that the close on Friday was exactly at the 200-week MA, currently at 23.65. The stock closed in the exact middle of the week's trading range, meaning that the bulls need an additional positive this week to generate further upside and a clear break of the MA. The stock did get "into" the gap area between 30.06 and 24.37 with a high this past week at 24.50 but not enough has been done by the bulls yet to generate new buying interest. Short-term pivotal support is found at last week's low at 22.91 and then nothing until very minor at 21.73 and decent at 20.67. To the upside, minor resistance is found at 24.50 and then minor again at 25.99 and decent at 27.64. The company reports earnings on Tuesday after the close and as such, the traders will make decisions off of that. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .12 (new price 1.45).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.28.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 24.06.

4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.29.

5) GS - Covered shorts at 223.54. Shorted at 226.77. Profit on the trade of $323 per 100 shares minus commissions.

6) X - Averaged long at 29.765 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 23.68.

7) RIG - Averaged long at 9.22 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 8.51.

8) VHC - Liquidated at 4.15. Purchased at 4.34. Loss on the trade of $19 per 100 shares plus commissions.

9) KO - Shorted at 45.48. Stop loss now at 45.61. Stock closed on Friday at 45.03.

10) MNK - Averaged long at 42.733 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 43.92. Stock closed on Friday at 47.42.

11) CLB - Liquidated at 108.66. Purchased at 99.37. Profit on the trade of $929 per 100 shares minus commissions.

12) DFS - Purchased at 60.90. Stop loss at 60.22. Stock closed on Friday at 62.53.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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