Issue #534 ![]() July 9, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Correction Sputters. Traders Await Start of Earnings Quarter!
DOW Friday closing price - 21414
The traders seemingly took the entire July 4th week off as on a weekly closing basis the movement was minimal (DOW rallied .3%, the SPX rallied .1% and the NASDAQ rallied .2%). Then again, it was a telling week given that the most important economic reports for the month (ISM Index, FOMC minutes and Jobs) came out as expected or better than expected and it did not "move the needle", suggesting that the traders have no distinct direction at this time.
Over the past 6 weeks, the DOW has rallied 1.4%, the SPX has fallen .6% and the b>NASDAQ has fallen 2.5%, meaning that the only thing that is clear in this mixed and mostly sideways market is that the DOW/NAZ spread has been unwinding and that is considered an overall negative sign for the market though not a strong one. Speculative buying rarely keys on Blue Chip stocks.
The weekly closes on Friday were mixed, inasmuch as the DOW closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, The SPX closed very slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, and the NASDAQ closed near the highs of the week's trading range, suggesting that the overall market has no clear direction this week.
It is likely that the traders are waiting for the earnings quarter to start to give further direction to the market and will not "rock the boat" much in the meantime. Nonetheless, the traders remain generally bullish on the market, meaning that if earnings do not disappoint, more of the same will be seen. For the past 8 years, the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter have generally been supportive for the bulls and it seems that is what the bulls are hoping for and depending on once again. The earnings quarter starts next Friday with C, JPM and WFC reporting.
For this coming week, the probabilities for this week favor more of the same as has been seen of late but with a slight bias for the bears and to the downside, given that usually the week before the earnings quarter starts a small selloff occurs, likely as a manipulated move to give traders a dip they can buy prior to the beginning of the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter when rallies tend to occur. It is highly unlikely that any of the indexes will make new highs this week.
The levels to watch this week and for the next couple of weeks are the previous all-time high weekly closes (DOW at 21005, SPX at 2383 and NAZ at 5911). If those levels are broken on a weekly closing basis at any time during the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter, it would suggest that earnings disappointed.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There are no new mentions this week as the traders will likely await the beginning of the earnings quarter before making any decisions or committments to direction. In addition, there are no economic reports of consequence this week, meaning that the sideways action seen the last few weeks is likely to contiunue.
Nonetheless, there is a presently held stock that should get down to a price this week where adding positions should be strongly considered.
MNK Friday Closing Price - 42.64
MNK has built what seems to be a solid bottom to the downtrend, having made a new all-time low 7 weeks ago at 38.80 and generating a double bottom on the intraweek chart with a drop down to that same price 2 weeks later. In addition, the stock also negated the new all-time weekly closing low at 40.29, having rallied and closed above the previous all-time weekly closing low at 41.96 just a couple of weeks after having broken it.
Neither the all-time intraweek double bottom nor the all-time weekly closing low have yet been tested successfully, suggesting that the weakness seen the past 2 weeks will either be that retest or the start of a new leg down. With MNK being one of the 14 stocks with high Sharpe ratings that Goldman Sachs stated they would be keying on for purchase, in addition to the positive chart work that has occurred over the past 5 weeks, consideration should be given to adding more shares on this dip.
The stock shows decent intra-week support between 41.00 and 41.67, going back to when the stock started trading in June 2013 as well as recently as the stock made a spike low at 41.67 in March of this year, and considering that the previous all-time weekly closing low was 41.96 and that the stock closed on Friday at 42.64, as well as the fact that the recent all-time low weekly close is 40.26, a drop down below 42.00 seems to be the perfect level to purchase.
To the upside, the most likely objective for MNK is the 54.74 level as that has been the high weekly close for the past 9 months and is also the level of weekly close support at 54.62 that got broken in November and that had stood up for 35 months from December 2013 and November 2016, meaning that it is a glaringly obvious upside objective if the stock has in fact found a bottom. By the same token, the 200-week MA is currently at 73.40 and if the stock has found a bottom and a second failure signal is given with a weekly close above 54.74, that line would then become the objective, to be reached in a period of about 2 years.
Additional purchases on MNK between 41.00 and 41.68 and using a stop loss at 38.65 and having an upside objective of 54.74 will offer a 4.3-1 risk/reward ratio. If the trade works out and the bulls are able to get above 54.74 and reach $73, the risk/reward ratio will jump up to 8-1.
My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Loss of $3874 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for June per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
GS (short) $49 RIG (long) $39 Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions. NONE Total Profit for June, per 100 shares and after commissions $88 Closed out losing trades for June per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
AXP (short) $349
AMTD (short) $859 ZIOP (long) $23 LVS (short) $44 AXP (short) $445 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions. NONE Total Loss for March, per 100 shares, including commissions $1720 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 6/30
KO (short) $63
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
X (long) $387 CLF (long) $309 ARNA(long) $152 FCEL (long) $9 ENG (long) $24 Total $1461 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 6/30
RIG (long) $298
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close. NONE Total $298 Status of trades for month of June per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Loss of $469
Status of account/portfolio for 2017, as of 6/30Loss of $4343 using 100 shares traded per mention.
AAPL generated an uneventful inside week but remained within the bearish inverted flag formation, suggesting that the end result of all the recent trading will still be a break to the downside. Nonetheless, the bottom of the flag at 142.20 was tested this week (likely successfully) with the drop down to 142.41, and having closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, the probabilities favor further upside above last week's high at 145.30, meaning that the traders are likely to attempt to test the top of the flag at 148.28 this coming week with a rally up to around the $147 level where resistance is minor to decent. On a negative note for the bulls, there is now a multiple lows scenario with the stock having dropped to 142.51 on 6/12, to 142.21 on 6/15, to 142.20 on 6/16, to 142.28 on 6/29, and to 142.41 on 7/6, meaning that the probabilities of a break occurring at some point over the next few weeks are very high. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.
ARNA generated another green weekly close, confirming the previous week's break above the high weekly close for the past 8 months at 16.40. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 19.91 is expected to be seen. Minor to perhaps decent intra-week resistance is found at 20.60 and then nothing until decent at 21.60. Above 21.60, there is no resistance until minor to decent resistance is found at 24.50 and then decent between 26.17 and 26.80. On a weekly closing basis, there is clear resistance at the $20 demilitarized zone with previous closes over the past 20 months at 19.70, at 19.80 and at 19.90, meaning that this area will not be easy to break but likely to be broken because of the multiple closes there. JPM chimed in this past week with a buy recommendation that offers a $27 objective. JPM is the 4th company in the last 3 weeks that has started coverage of the stock with a buy rating. So far the 4 companies giving buy ratings have offered a $50, $40, $23 and $27 upside objective. Intra-week support is now found at 17.30 at 16.00 and pivotal at 14.70. The rally is also supported by the fact that the volume for the past 2 weeks has been the highest seen since January 2015. Probabilities favor the bulls. Nonetheless, given the strong rally seen this past week, it is now unlikely that the bears will be able to push the stock below the 17.00-17.30 level, much less give a failure signal with a weekly close below 16.40. Probabilities favor the bulls. CLB announced an unexpected dividend payout this week and in spite of oil heading lower, the stock headed higher. Nonetheless, it must be stated that the bears had been unable to get below last week's low before the announcement was made on Thursday, likely meaning that the previous week's support at 97.79 will be depended upon by the traders. The stock closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 104.46 will be seen this week. Minor intra-week resistance is found at 104.93 and then nothing until minor again between 106.61 and 106.99. Decent resistance is found at the $110 demilitarized zone. Minor to decent and perhaps even short-term pivotal support is now found at 102.50. Below that level, there is support at 100.96 and then nothing until 99.31. The weekly closing chart is now more clearly defined with pivotal support at 98.23 and semi-pivotal resistance at 108.67. For now though, and while oil continues to trade sideways, the probabilities favor the stock trading that $10 range. CLF generated another green weekly close, the 3rd in a row and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.20 will be seen this week. It is evident that the selling interest seen between February and May has ebbed substantially as the stock has not had 3 weeks in a row of green weekly closes since November of last year and that ultimately was the rally that took the stock to 12.70. Based on that rally, it does seem like this rally is targeting the 200-week MA, currently at 9.50. to be reached sometime over the next 6-8 weeks. Intraweek resistance is found at 7.39 and then nothing until minor to perhaps decent resistance is found at 8.45. On a daily closing basis though, the 200-day MA, currently at 7.75 will be a tough nut to crack as the stock has traded below that line since March 12th and the line has proven in the past that it is a MA that is followed closely by the traders. Intra-week support is now found at 6.66 that has a decent probability of holding up on any dips. The key issue for this week is the resistance at 7.39. If that resistance gets broken, a rally up to at least 7.75 is likely to be seen. Support this week is found at 6.88. If broken, a drop down to 6.66 is likely to be seen. ENG generated a red weekly close, making the previous week's close at 1.29 into a successful retest of that pivotal area that has been pivotal since October 2014. The stock closed on the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.20 is likely to be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock seems to be presently stuck between 1.16 and 1.29 and unlikely to break out of that trading range this coming week. On a possible positive note, the stock has built a bullish flag formation on the daily chart with the flagpole being the 5-day rally from 1.06 to 1.39 and the flag the trading range down to 1.20 seen over the past 4 days. A break above 1.39 would offer an objective of 1.53. Intra-week resistance of some consequence is found between 1.35 and 1.39 but it is resistance that is now considered multiple highs as there are 4 highs at that price seen over the past 3 weeks, suggesting that they will get broken. Above that level, there is no resistance of consequence until 1.55-1.58 is reached. Support is now found at 1.20 and at 1.16. FCEL generated an uneventful week and a close on the middle of the week's trading range, suggesting more of the same will be seen this week. The stock has traded mainly between 1.20 and 1.30 for the past 2 weeks and the probabilities favor that scenario occurring again this week. GS made a new 13-week intraweek high and a new 9-week weekly closing high but the bulls were unable to negate the bearish inverted flag formation or generate an indicative bullish weekly close, having failed to generate a weekly close above 226.87 in spite of trading above that level every day this past week. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 223.42 will be seen this week. Intraweek resistance is minor to perhaps decent between 226.80 and 227.04 and again between 228.79 and 229.07. Above that level, likely pivotal resistance is found at last week's high at 230.06. To the downside, minor to perhaps decent support is found between 221.13 and 221.54 that includes the 200-day MA, currently at 221.25. The company reports earnings on Tuesday, July 18th and the probabilities favor the stock trading between $221 and $227 this week. Overall, the chart remains with a bearish chart formation that offers a $184 downside target (off of the flag), which also fits in well with the 200-week MA, currently at $185. KO made a new 6-week intraweek and weekly closing low and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 44.24 will be seen this week. In addition, a failure signal was given, having closed below the previous all-time high weekly close from November 2014 at 44.83. On an intra-week basis, there are 3 support levels the traders will key on at 43.94 and 43.31 and at 42.87. It is likely that one of those support levels will hold up and the stock generate a rally back up to 45.00. As such, consideration should be given to taking profits should that support area be reached. Then again, the chart suggests that over the next 8-10 weeks, the stock is likely to get down to the $40 level that is considered a strong support area. Simply stated, the stock is likely to be in a trading range between $40 and $45 for the next 3 months or longer. A big key this week will be where the stock closes next Friday. A weekly close below 43.94 would likely weaken the chart sufficiently for the bears to attempt to take the stock down to the 200-week MA, currently at 41.80. Probabilities favor the bears this week but any drop down to somewhere between 42.87 and 43.94 should be considered for taking profits. MNK confirmed the previous week's negative reversal with a second red weekly close on Friday. The stock closed on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 42.00 is expected to be seen this week. Intraweek support of some importance is found at 41.57 that should be considered a buying or adding opportunity as the stock seems to have found a bottom when the stock dropped down to 38.80, which has now become a double bottom as well as a failure signal against the bears, suggesting that there will be strong buying on dips down to the 41.00-41.67 level which was the original low when stock started trading back in July 2013. The double bottom had not yet been tested successfully and this drop should end up being that retest. Probabilities favor a positive reversal week, with the stock dropping down intra-week to somewhere between 41.00 and 41.67 and then closing in the green next Friday. RIG generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3-week high and then closing below the previous week's low. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 7.72 is expected to be seen. The all-time intra-week low is at 7.66 and there is presently a double bottom at that level, meaning that if the stock does get below last week's low that a new all-time intraweek low will be made. If that occurs, the close next Friday would become important as another red weekly close would likely bring in new selling interest. The drop in oil prices was the culprit for the drop in the stock and the oil chart does suggest that this is a pivotal week for oil, meaning that oil is also likely to go below last week's low but generate a green weekly close next Friday. Pivotal resistance is now found at last week's high at 8.88, especially considering that 8.84 is a previous low daily close of consequence. A close above that level would generate a failure signal in favor of the bulls. VHC generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 5-week low and then closing in the green. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 4.65 is expected to be seen this week. Minor intraweek resistance is found between 4.95 and 5.00, a tad bit stronger at 5.15 and minor to perhaps decent at 5.40. Intra-week support is minor but likely short-term pivotal at 5.30. The stock is showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 3.35 to 5.40 and the flag the recent trading down to 4.30. Objective of the flag if broken (rally above 5.40) would 6.35, which also represents the next intraweek resistance on the chart. Probabilities favor the bulls. X confirmed last week's successful retest of the 200-week MA, having generated further intraweek downside as well as a second red weekly close. The stock closed very slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 20.67 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the action being seen does not give the bears any new edge, meaning that the stock is likely backing and filling while trying to build a support base from which to attempt to end the downtrend. Intraweek support of some consequence is found at 20.13 Probabilities favor another somewhat uneventful week with a trading range perhaps between 20.30 and 22.00 but with a green weekly close next Friday.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .103 (new price 1.25). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.25. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 19.25. 4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.71. 5) GS - Shorted at 226.77. Stop loss now at 230.35. Stock closed on Friday at 225.28. 6) X - Averaged long at 29.765 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 21.45. 7) RIG - Averaged long at 9.22 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.88. 8) VHC - Purchased at 4.34. Stop loss at 3.65. Stock closed on Friday at 4.65. 9) KO - Shorted at 45.48. Stop loss now at 45.61. Stock closed on Friday at 44.24. 10) MNK - Averaged long at 43.325 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 40.93. Stock closed on Friday at 42.64. 11) CLB - Purchased at 99.37. Stop loss now at 97.65. Stock closed on Friday at 102.68. 12) AAPL - Shorted at 144.32. Stop loss at 148.38. Stock closed on Friday at 144.18.
Previous Newsletters
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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