Issue #535
July 16, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Up, Up, and Away? Indexes Make New All-time High Weekly Closes!

DOW Friday closing price - 21637
SPX Friday closing price - 2459
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 6312

The indexes across the board made new all-time weekly closing highs though on an intraweek basis the NASDAQ still fell short by 20 points.

All indexes closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW at 21681, SPX at 2463 and NAZ at 6321). The rally seen this past week was impressive as it was the strongest since December, with the DOW having rallied 402 points from week's low to high, the SPX 51 points and the NASDAQ 180 points. With this rally coming after a 9-week period of mostly sideways trading, it does suggest it is the beginning of a new leg up on the 8-year uptrend.

There were no catalysts for the rally this past week other than perhaps the dovish statements made by Fed Chief Yellen that made the traders believe there will be no further interest rate increases this year and/or the beginning of another earnings quarter that is expected to be 8% better than last year. Nonetheless, with this all being just speculation (nothing was actually stated by Yellen and the earnings quarter is just beginning), the indexes could be in a precarious situation that could "turn on a dime" if not confirmed by actual results.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW and the SPX are nearing levels of psychological resistance that are likely to require tangible positive news to break above. The 21700-22000 level in the DOW and the 2470-2500 level in the SPX will be used as psychological levels by the bears where they can get "together" to try to push the indexes down. The NASDAQ still has to get above its previous all-time intra-week high at 6341 and that is not a "gimme" given that the big 5 stocks in the index (AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOGL, and NFLX) are considered to be fully priced with more chances of going down than up, proof being the fact the index has been lagging the others recently.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW doesn't show any pivotal support until 21197 but on a daily closing basis a confirmed close below the previous all-time high daily close at 21528 will weaken the chart and the resolve of the bulls. On the SPX, the pivotal intraweek support is down at 2405 but like with the DOW, any daily close below the previous all-time high daily close at 2439 would also weaken the chart. The NASDAQ has a different type of obstacle to overcome, given that it is still below the previous all-time intra-week high and daily closing high (at 6341 and 6321), meaning that any failure to get above those levels at the beginning of the week will be seen as weakness and more importantly will create a double top if unable to do so and a red close occurs.

The direction for the entire week could be set as early as Tuesday, given that on Monday after the close NFLX reports earnings and Tuesday before the opening GS reports. Those 2 reports are the "biggies" for the week and are likely to be catalysts given the fragile state of the market.

The onus is on the shoulders of the bulls as the new highs must be confirmed this week. Any failure after the rally last week will not only strongly disappoint but would take the momentum away, which seems to be the only thing the bulls are relying on. Probabilities favor the bulls.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

With the indexes making new highs this past week the possibility of an overall bear scenario dimmed for at least for the next 3 weeks. Nonetheless, the idea that the leadership of the market is changing continues to rage as the previous leaders have so far failed to make new highs, while others that have been laggards and starting to pick up the pace.

It does seem that the market is changing and it does open the door for traders to hand pick stocks for both bullish and bearish scenarios based on the individual company and not the overall market. There are 2 mentions in this newsletter, one a sale and one a purchase, both based on this idea.

PURCHASES

DFS is a stock on the Goldman Sachs list of stocks with a high Sharpe rating. It is also a stock I gave as a buy mention 3 weeks ago with a desired entry price between 58.74 and 59.50 that never got down to the desired entry point.

DFS has been on a short-term downtrend since the all-time high at 74.33 was made in January. The stock got down to 57.82 just 7 weeks ago, meaning that a drop of 22% from the highs has occurred and that now likely means that the stock is no longer in an uptrend (likely into a sideways trend) until some new fundamental positive occurs. The stock reports earnings on Tuesday July 26th.

During the past 3+ years, the $60 level has been pivotal support or resistance 11 times, meaning it is a level where buying interest is found, especially in a market that is in an uptrend, such as the index market is in presently. The recent drop down to 57.82 was likely because the 200-week MA is currently at 58.60 and that line was a magnet. Nonetheless, when that low was made the stock immediately bounced back up above $60 and has stayed above that price since, meaning that a drop back down to that level is no longer needed unless the fundamentals have turned bearish.

DFS got down to 60.32 this past week and immediately found buying interest, bouncing back up to 61.59 and closing near the highs of the week, suggesting the buying interest remains strong at $60. In addition, the stock now shows a minor double low at that price, given that it got down to 60.32 on Wednesday and 60.42 on Friday. A rally above 61.59 will trigger a new buy signal that should generate enough buying interest to break the recent high at 63.28 and likely take the stock up to the 200200-day MA, currently at 64.95, this all likely to happen before the company reports earnings a week from Tuesday. Nonetheless, if the earnings report is not unexpectedly negative, the probabilities favor the stock being in a sideways trading range and getting up to the 66.72 level where decent resistance is found.

With the 60.32 level now looking like pivotal support, especially if DFS gets above 61.59, it does open the door for a purchase with a good risk/reward ratio and a decent probability rating, at least as far as getting up to the 200-day MA before the earnings report comes out.

Purchases of DFS between 61.10 and 61.30 and using a stop loss at 59.65 and having a 66.72 objective will offer a 3.3-1 risk/reward ratio. Nonetheless, using a more sensitive but just as good stop loss at 60.22 will make the risk/reward ratio climb to 5-1.

My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

SALES

NFLX Friday Closing Price - 161.13

NFLX recently made a new all-time high at 166.87 and came within $3 of reaching the upside target given in May by Goldman Sachs at $170. Nonetheless, it is also one of the stocks that GS mentioned as no longer all that interesting to the upside in spite of the fact they feel the market is going to continue higher. They feel that the stocks that previously led the market are now going to find themselves losing buying interest because of the high valuation levels presently seen.

NFLX recently corrected 13.6% down to 144.25 but did so without any retest of the high, meaning that the $12 spike rally seen last week to close on the highs of the week (suggesting further upside above last week's high at 161.35 will be seen this week) could end up being the required/needed retest. By the same token, even if it does not turn out to be a retest but a resumption of the uptrend with a $170 upside objective (as given by GS), it is likely that the stock is at or nearing a top and offering more profit potential to the bears than the bulls over the rest of the year.

NFLX over the past 5 years has increased in value 2200%, having gone up from 7.58 to 166.87 in that period of time. As such, if a top is found, the correction that would likely occur would be at least 20%, given that amount of correction would be needed to effectively state the uptrend is over. As such, a correction of around $34 could be seen (down to around the $135 level).

The big question is whether NFLX has already found a top at 166.87 or whether it will make one new high at $170 and then begin the correction. The company reports earnings on Monday night after the close, meaning there isn't going to be a big wait to find out what is to happen.

With the stock having rallied $12 last week and closing on the highs of the week, it is expected that follow through will be seen on Monday (prior to the earnings report). The likely target will be the all-time high weekly close at 165.18. Sales can be considered at that time and at "that price" if willing to risk the earnings report. The probability number of the trade under that scenario will be no better than 50-50, at least as far as whether the all-time high is broken or not. If not willing to risk the earnings report, sales should be considered on Tuesday if anywhere near that level after the report, or up around $170 if the report was better than expected. If after the report and the stock does not make a new all-time high, a stop loss can be placed at 167.35. If after the report and the stock is trading around $170, a stop loss can be used at 173.35.

To the downside, NFLX will show decent support at the previous all-time high weekly close at 130.93 from November 2015. That would be the likely first target should the stock be topping out, to be reached over a period of 1-3 months.

My rating on the trade is a 3.25 if $170 is reached and a 3.75 rating if no new highs are made (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS

I will also be looking to re-short AAPL above 150.25. Nonetheless, that is not yet set in stone, especially the desired entry point. I will update on the message board.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ARNA made a new 22-month intraweek and weekly closing high this past week and closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 27.86 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the close on Friday below 24.60 (a level that has been pivotal support/resistance on 3 occasions since 2009) left questions unanswered, meaning that further upside is not a high probability yet. The big question is the new offering at $24 that came out the day after the news that one of its drugs generated a successful Phase ll study. The dilution of the shares on top of the reverse split that happened a couple of weeks ago is something the traders must still ponder upon and decide how much it impacts the future price of the stock. To the upside and on an intra-week basis, there is minor resistance at 29.86 and then nothing until 34.70. To the downside and on an intra-week basis, there minor support at 23.00 and minor to perhaps decent at 20.00. The probabilities favor the bulls but volatility is likely to be seen. Possible trading range for the week could be as much as 20.00 to the downside and as much as 34.70 to the upside. Nonetheless, the probable upside target for this week is likely to be 29.85. As far as the downside target, I have no clear picture other than the $20 level should not be broken. It does need to be mentioned that the 200-week MA is currently at 33.70 and it is unlikely that level will be broken on a weekly closing basis without further positive fundamental news. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls.

CLB generated another green weekly close (the 3rd in a row) and closed on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 106.63 will be seen this week. On an intra-week basis, there is decent resistance at the 2-month double high at 109.82/109.67 (108.67/108.37 on a daily closing basis). To the downside, there is now minor to perhaps decent intra-week support at 102.50. The big question is oil. If oil continues higher to 48.75, as the chart suggests that it will, the probabilities of the stock breaking that double high resistance and getting up to the 200-day MA, currently at 111.15, will be high. The stock should get up to at least the 108.37 level this week. Any further upside will likely depend on oil. Consideration should be given to taking profits somewhere between 108.50 and 111.00. The 102.50 level should now be support.

CLF made a new 3-month intra-week and weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.58 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock has reached the first level of weekly close resistance of importance given that the 50-week MA is currently at 7.50 and over the past 10 years that MA line has proven to be as or more important than the 200-week MA. On an intra-week basis though, there is no resistance above until minor at 7.85 and decent at 8.45 (8.11 on a weekly closing basis). The 200-day MA is currently at 7.80 and that line is likely to be reached but will also offer resistance of some consequence, at least on a daily closing basis. On a positive note, the stock is showing a bullish flag formation with the flagpole being the rally from 6.45 to 7.58 and the flag the trading range the past 3 days down to 7.11. A break above the top of the flag will offer an upside objective of 8.14. The chart is favoring the bulls but this area between 7.50 and 8.11 (based on a weekly close) is one of importance and therefore needs to be watched closely. A break of the flag, especially a break below 7.00, would now be seen as a negative of consequence. A red weekly close next Friday would also be considered slightly negative.

ENG generated a second red weekly close and a close on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.15 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to close the stock above the 13-month low weekly close at 1.15, meaning that a green close next Friday would give the bulls some new ammunition. As it is, this recent weakness could end up being just the necessary/required retest of the recent 1.06 intraweek low, meaning that the weakness being seen after failing to generate a weekly close above 1.29/1.31 may be more technical in nature than fundamental. There is fair intra-week support at 1.15, meaning that if the bears are unable to break that level this coming week that it would be seen as a decent positive, especially considering that the probabilities favor that level breaking. Below 1.15 there is no intra-week support until 1.07. Intra-week resistance remains minor at 1.39 but decent on a weekly closing basis at 1.29/1.31. Probabilities slightly favor the bears this week.

FCEL generated the 8th week in a row of green weekly closes, which is something that has not happened since February 2012. Nonetheless and on a possibly negative note, the stock has only appreciated 35% in value, compared to 2012 where it appreciated 45% in value, meaning that the amount of green weekly closes is not yet all that indicative. The stock did close once again near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.45 is expected to be seen this week. With the gap being at 1.55 and the stock now into the gap for the past 15 trading days, the possibilities of the gap being closed this week have increased exponentially. Closure of the gap would be a positive statement by the bulls. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.70 and decent as well as longer-term pivotal at 1.97/2.05. Support is now short-term pivotal at 1.18. Probabilities favor the bulls.

GS generated a buy signal on the weekly closing chart, having made a new 15-week weekly closing high, above the 3 previous high weekly closes at 222.44, 223.53, and 226.87. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 230.64 will be seen this week. Nonetheless and on a possible negative note, the company reports earnings on Tuesday morning and given that the buy signal needs to be confirmed this week with another green weekly close above 226.87 next Friday, the bears still have a chance of negating the buy signal if the report does not fulfill expectations. As it is, C, JPM, and WFC reported earnings on Friday and though they were as expected or better, the stocks generated a negative red daily and weekly close, meaning that the bulls in GS have to hope that the same does not occur to them. It should also be mentioned that the bearish flag formation on the intraweek chart has not yet been negated as the stock needs to get above 232.89 to negate it. As such, it can still be said that the chart favors the bears overall. On an intraweek basis, pivotal support is now found at 223.96 that if broken would give the short-term edge back to the bears. Nonetheless, the bears still need to close below the 200-day MA, currently at 221.50, to make a strong statement. Probabilities very slightly favor the bears.

KO generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 7-week low at 44.15 and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 44.77 will be seen this week. Decent intraweek resistance is found between 44.87 and 45.00 that is unlikely to be broken before the earnings report on July 26th. The stock now shows intra-week support at 44.37 and then at 44.15. Probabilities favor the stock trading between 45.00 and 44.25 until the earnings report comes out. Nonetheless, if the report is not bullish enough to give the bulls new ammunition and a break above 45.00, the monthly chart suggests that a drop down to 42.87 or even as low as 40.75 could be seen over the next 1-2 months. Probabilities continue to overall favor the bears though this week should favor the bulls slightly.

MNK generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 3-week low and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 45.02 will be seen this week. The stock now shows a confirmed inverted Head & Shoulders formation on the daily intraweek chart with the left shoulder at 41.67, the head at 38.80/38.81 and the right shoulder at 41.51 and on the weekly closing chart with closes at 43.09 (left shoulder), at 40.29 (head) and at 42.64 (right shoulder). The neckline is presently at 47.04 (46.82 on a weekly closing basis) that if broken would offer an upside objective of 55.18. Support is now pivotal at last week's low at 41.51, meaning that stop losses could be placed at 41.41 if desired. The first course of action for the week should be to the downside with 43.25 as the objective. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

RIG bears failed to produce any follow through to the downside in spite of the close on the lows of the week the previous week as the bulls generated a green weekly close and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 8.44 will be seen this week. The most important thing about the close on Friday is that it was at 8.33, which was the previous all-time low close seen in February 2016, meaning that this week will be all about the close next Friday. A green weekly close would generate a failure signal in favor of the bulls, while a red weekly close would be a successful retest of the break and likely would stimulate resumption of the downtrend and further new lows. As such, it is a pivotal week. Minor resistance is found at 8.55 and pivotal at 8.83. Support is decent as well as pivotal at 7.67/7.72. The probabilities slightly favor the bulls inasmuch as oil is looking to have a positive week, having closed on Friday at a level that suggests at least a $2 move to the upside is to be seen.

VHC generated another uneventful week, having traded in a 35 point trading range and not breaking any support or resistance level. The stock did close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 4.50 will be seen this week. Intra-week support is found at 4.45, at 4.39, at 4.35 and pivotal at 4.30. Resistance is found at 4.85, at 5.15 and 5.40. The company does not report earnings until August 7th and the probabilities favor the stock trading between 4.45 and 5.00 until the report comes out. The chart continues to favor the bulls and if there are any surprises they will likely be to the upside.

X had an unexpected strong week in which a new 11-week high was made in spite of the previous week's close in the red and in the lower half of the week's trading range. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 24.10 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock is now close to the next level of resistance where important long term trend decisions could be made, given that the 200-week MA is currently at 23.60 (stock closed on Friday at 23.21) and that the gap area from the previous earnings report is at 24.37. It seems unlikely that the stock can close much above (if any) the MA line or get into the gap area before the earnings report comes out on Tuesday July 25th. The probabilities favor the stock trading between 24.50 and 22.50 this coming week.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .118 (new price 1.42).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.16.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 24.28.

4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.39.

5) GS - Shorted at 226.77. Stop loss now at 232.99. Stock closed on Friday at 228.60.

6) X - Averaged long at 29.765 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 23.21.

7) RIG - Averaged long at 9.22 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.88.

8) VHC - Purchased at 4.34. Stop loss at 3.65. Stock closed on Friday at 4.60.

9) KO - Shorted at 45.48. Stop loss now at 45.61. Stock closed on Friday at 44.68.

10) MNK - Purchased at 41.55. Averaged long at 42.733 (3 mentions). Stop loss now at 40.93. Stock closed on Friday at 44.51.

11) CLB - Purchased at 99.37. Stop loss now at 97.65. Stock closed on Friday at 106.34.

12) AAPL - Liquidated at 149.08. Shorted at 144.32. Loss on the trade of $476 per 100 shares plus commissions.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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