Issue #541
August 27, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Market Correction Under Way.

DOW Friday closing price - 21813
SPX Friday closing price - 2443
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 6265

The indexes all generated a positive reversal week, having gone below last week's low and then turning around to close in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW at 21912, SPX at 2454 and NASDAQ at 6308). The positive reversal has stopped or paused the recent downside momentum of the correction but with the indexes still soundly below their all-time highs, this move up may end up being the required/needed retest of those highs which has not occurred on a weekly closing basis on any of the indexes and on an intraweek basis has only occurred once in the NASDAQ. Any print above last week's highs would fulfill the retest requirements on the DOW and the SPX and a red close next week in all the indexes would make Friday's green close into a successful retest on the weekly closing chart.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows some resistance and last week's high at 21912 and then nothing until the bottom of the 22000 demilitarized zone. The SPX has resistance at last week's high at 2454 and then nothing until 2474 and the NASDAQ has resistance at last week's high at 6308 and then nothing until 6341.

On a possible negative note, the indexes all closed near the lows of the day on Friday, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the downside. With open gaps below and no fundamental reason for the gaps to stay unclosed, the probabilities favor the traders looking to close the gaps at the beginning of the week and then attempt to rally the indexes above last week's high at the end of the week, thus giving the bulls some ammunition for the following week. In the DOW the gap is between 21718 and 21738, in the SPX it is between 2430 and 2433 and in the NASDAQ it is between 6226 and 6241. By the same token, if the bulls first try to rally the indexes and they do get above last week's high at the beginning of the week and then look to close the gaps later on in the week, it will be a negative scenario. As such, the action at the beginning of the week could be indicative of what the traders are thinking will happen for the next week or two.

It is important to note that the following week (Labor Day week), the big economic reports come out (ISM Index and Jobs) and therefore the probabilities favor the former scenario outlined above than the latter.

Either way, this coming week is not likely to be overall indicative unless last week's lows are broken (DOW at 21600, SPX at 2417, and NASDAQ at 6177). Such a break would negate last week's positive reversal and give the bears strong ammunition for further downside.

Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

The probabilities still remain in favor of the bears and that a correction is occurring. Nonetheless, the bulls were able to generate a positive reversal this past week, suggesting that going into the Labor Day weekend and the important economic the come out next week that a pause this week will occur. Simply stated, this is probably a "backing and filling" week with filling being the key word.

Thee are no mentions this week since the portfolio is presently full and not accepting any new trades, as well as from the fact that it will likely be an uneventful week without any great trading opportunities. Nonetheless, there is still 1 mention from last week that remains viable if the desired entry point is reached.

SALES

ZBRA Friday Closing Price 102.77

ZBRA made an all-time high at 119.47 in June 2015 and then proceeded to fall precipitously over the following 11 months to 46.13 (a 61.4% drop). The stock then began a recovery phase that started in July 2016 and that lasted 11 months until June 2017 and that took the stock back up to 109.30 where selling interest was again found, causing the stock to drop back down to 94.78 over a period of 9 weeks. Once again, buying interest was found at that price and the stock over the next 2 weeks rallied back up to 108.99 where a negative reversal occurred 2 weeks ago, having made a new 11-week high but then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below the previous week's low at 101.38 would occur. Nonetheless, last week was an inside week in which neither the bulls or bears accomplished anything, meaning that the desired entry point was not reached.

What the action seen the past 2 years suggests is that 1) the stock is very volatile, 2) there is strong selling interest on rallies above $100, 3) the all-time high now has at least 1 successful retest and possibly 2 (if the stock goes below last week's low this week, and 4) downside objective could be just about anything.

In looking at the chart of ZBRA for the past 2 years, one thing jumps out immediately and that is that between $85 and $110 movement has been swift and without many obstacles or delays, both when rallying and when falling, meaning that if the bears have now gotten their edge back and the indexes are to fall, that a drop down to that support area could occur in a matter of a couple of weeks.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, ZBRA shows a spike low reversal week from 94.78 that looms like decent but also very pivotal support. The positive reversal to the upside seen 3 weeks ago did generate follow through to the upside last week but also generated a negative reversal week and a successful retest of the previous high at 109.30, meaning that with the indexes now set to go lower, the bears will likely jump all over shorting this week to bring about a break of that pivotal support and a drop down to the $80-$85 area.

ZBRA closed slightly in thelower half of last week's trading range suggesting it will follow what the indexes do this week. Given that the indexes are likely to go above last week's high this week, the stock could reach the desired entry point where a short position can be considered.

Sales of ZBRA between 104.70 and 105.10 and using a stop loss at 109.35 and having an 80.00 objective will offer a risk/reward ratio of better than 5-1. Even if $85 becomes the objective, the risk/reward is still better than 4-1.

My rating on the trade is a 3.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ADSK reported better than expected earnings and made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high (above the previous at 113.03) on Friday. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 119.73 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the stock did sell off on Friday over $6 from the highs of the day and closed near the lows of the day, suggesting that the first course of action for the week will be to the downside (below Friday's low at 113.54). The intraday selloff also suggests that the earnings report was not so catalytic as to cause the stock to start a new leg up in uptrend without selling interest of consequence being seen. The previous all-time high weekly close, which was also a double top, is at 113.89/114.08 and that is $1 lower than Friday's close, suggesting that on Monday the bears will be trying to close below that level to generate a failure signal and the bulls will be defending that level so that it becomes a successful retest of the previous all-time high daily close and the uptrend can resume. It should be mentioned that 4 weeks ago the stock also made a new all-time intraweek high but reversed to the downside and 2 weeks later had dropped 9% in value. As such, it is evident that there is decent selling interest in the stock. Monday is likely to be a pivotal day as a close below 113.89 could signal a failure but a green daily close would give the bulls additional ammunition. Probabilities favor the bulls.

AKAM continued the downtrend, having generated another new 18-month intraweek and weekly closing low and closing near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 44.65 will be seen this week. There is some old (from 2013) intraweek support at 43.74 and then nothing until $40 demilitarized zone is reached. To the upside there is some minor but likely short-term pivotal resistance at 45.89. Probabilities favor the bears.

AMTD did not follow through to the downside off of the previous week's close near the lows of the week and ended up having an inside week but with a close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 43.62 will be seen this week. Decent intraweek resistance is found at 43.84 that is likely to be short-term pivotal this week. The double top at 47.41/47.24 has not yet been retested on the weekly chart and a rally above last week's high could end up becoming that required/needed retest of that level. If the bulls fail to get above 43.84 and the stock closes in the red next Friday, it will give the bears additional and stronger ammunition to take the stock lower. Intraweek support is now found at the previous week's low at 41.88. Below that level, there is decent support at 40.93. Probabilities continue to favor the bears.

ARNA generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low but then closing above the previous week's high and in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting that further upside above last week's high at 23.26 will be seen this week. On the daily chart, a buy signal was given on Thursday, having closed above the previous high daily close at 21.30 and then confirming the buy signal with another green close on Friday. The stock is now also showing a double low on the intraweek chart at 20.12 and 20.02 that also fulfills the chart as the $20 level is an established support level from 2012. On an intra-week basis, resistance is found at 24.70, which is an area that also represents weekly close resistance from 2012 at 24.60, that if broken would open the door for a run to the 200-week MA, currently at 32.95. Daily close support should now be found at 21.30. Having fulfilled the chart when compared to what happened in 2012 as well as having tested successfully the $20 level, the bulls should now be able to renew the uptrend with the $33-$35 level (on an intraweek basis) as the next objective. A weekly close above 24.60 would now confirm that scenario as being probable. A stop loss on all positions should now be placed at 19.65.

CLB generated an uneventful week but the green weekly close did suggest that perhaps the low of the recent downtrend has been made at 87.83. Nonetheless and in spite of the green weekly close, the stock closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 88.65 will be seen this week. If that occurs but the multi-year low at 87.83 is not broken and the stock closes in the green again next Friday, the probabilities that a recovery rally will occur will increase strongly. This stock has had 8 previous spike low recoveries in the last 30 months, the least of which was $12, meaning that if the low of the downside has been made at 87.83 that a rally back up to at least the $100 level could be seen. It is imperative for the bulls to generate another green weekly close next Friday as the 6-year weekly close support at 89.83 has already been broken but not sufficiently to consider it a clean break. Nonetheless, another red weekly close would open the door for a drop down to the next and "minor" weekly close support at 85.29. I will be averaging down this week on any drop below last week's low at 88.65 and using a stop loss at 86.65.

CLF generated a new 19-week high weekly close and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.97 will be seen this week. The 200-day MA is currently at 8.05 and the probabilities are high that the line will be seen. Nonetheless, since this would be the 4th time that line has been tested in the last 5 weeks, the probabilities are now high that it will be broken as the bears have repeatedly tried to break support each and every time the line was tested previously and they failed, meaning that the bulls now have the edge. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance is found at 8.45 that will now likely be reached but from which a drop back down to retest the 200-day MA would likely occur once the line is broken. Nonetheless, the chart suggests that the 200-week MA, currently at 9.00, will now be a magnet, likely to be reached sometime over the next 2-4 weeks. Minor but possibly short-term pivotal support is found at 7.22 but longer term pivotal and stronger support is found at 6.95 that if broken would be a strong negative. Probabilities favor the bulls.

ENG made a new 9-week intraweek low and new 15-month weekly closing low and closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 1.10 will be seen this week. The chart strongly suggests that the stock is heading toward the 2-point trendline that started in April 2013 and that connects on an intraweek basis at .94 and on a weekly closing basis at 1.04. Minor but possibly short-term pivotal resistance is found at 1.24. Probabilities favor the bears this week but the risk/reward ratio strongly favors the bulls at this price level so further downside will be slow and limited.

FCEL continues to generate green weekly closes, having closed again in the green for the 3rd week in a row and 13 out of the last 14 weeks. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1.52 is expected to be seen this week. The bears did have an opportunity to take the stock lower 4 weeks ago when the red weekly close occurred but in spite of closing on the lows of the week that week, they were unable to take the stock lower the following week. The 200-day MA, currently at 1.58, which is a line that got broken to the downside 3 years ago and only penetrated once to the upside in May 2016 for a period of 4 days is now looming large above and if broken again considering the large amount of green weekly closes that have been seen recently, would suggest that a major bottom has been built and that a period of sideways action, probably between 1.60 and 2.00 would then likely ensue for the next couple of months. Minor resistance is found at 1.53 that if broken would suggest the MA would be seen. Additional and slightly stronger resistance is found at 1.63 and then longer term pivotal at 1.79, that if broken would confirm the scenario mentioned above. Important and pivotal support is now found at 1.33. Probabilities favor the bulls this week with a rally up to at least 1.58.

GS generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 4-week intra-week low and then closing in the green. The stock closed slightly in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher possibility of going above last week's high at 224.95 than below last week's low at 219.21. Nonetheless, the reversal was not strong enough of a statement by the bulls to suggest the worst is over. The first level of resistance is at 225.45. It is a minor resistance but possibly short-term indicative as above that level there is no resistance until 227.04. The recent multi-week high at 235.83 has not yet been retested on the weekly chart, meaning that a rally above last week's high, even if only by a few points, could end up being the required/needed retest. The chart remains tilted in favor of the bears, especially since the stock has now traded for the past 8 days clearly below the 200-day MA, currently at 229.40. Pivotal support is now found at last week's low at 219.21. A break of that level would strongly suggest that a drop down to at least 213.18 would occur. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week but it could end up being a green start to the week and a red close next Friday.

MNK generated a spike up rally and a green weekly close near the highs of the week, suggesting that not only further upside above last week's high at 39.26 will be seen this week but that the bears have lost the momentum to the downside that they gained after the earnings report came out 4 weeks ago. By the same token, the bulls have not accomplished anything of consequence yet (other than perhaps a short-covering rally) and need more to the upside before they can claim that a bottom to this recent downtrend has been found. The previous all-time low daily close is 39.63 and the previous all-time low weekly close is 40.29 and though both of those levels are likely to be seen this week, the bulls need to get above and close above them before further and likely stronger short-covering occurs. There is absolutely no intra-week or intra-day resistance above until 41.55 is reached and that resistance is only found on the intra-day charts. The 200 60-minute MA is currently at 41.05 and will likely act as a brake that will slow down the buying, if and when the bulls are able to get the stock up that far this week. Likely pivotal support is found at the 37.00 level, meaning that it is unlikely that level will be broken before the rally above $40 occurs. Probabilities favor the bulls this week but it is a week with a lot of questions that don't have an answer or probability number attached to them at this time.

NFX bulls attempted to generate a positive reversal week, having made a new 18-month low and then rallying to close near the highs of the week, which does suggest further upside above last week's high at 25.43 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the positive reversal failed to materialize, given than the stock closed at the same price as the previous week, meaning that the bears remain in full control other than the probability of generating a small rally above last week's high this week. Intraweek resistance will be found at 25.73, both from a minor intra-week high seen in May 2013 but also from recent action on the intra-day chart. Above that level there is nothing of any consequence until 27.00. It is likely that the 25.73 level will be short-term pivotal this week. If the bulls are unable to get above that level, the selling interest will resume with the 22.85 level as the next downside objective. Probabilities continue to favor the bears.

SLCA bulls were unable to generate any follow through to the previous week's positive reversal and close near the high of the week, suggesting that the idea that a bottom to this downtrend has been found may still be premature. The stock closed in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 25.02 will be seen this week. If that does occur but the previous week's low at 24.26 low is not broken and then turns around the following week and goes above whatever high is made this coming week, it will mean that the retest has been successful and as such, stronger short-covering would likely occur. To the upside, there is minor intra-week resistance at 26.19, a bit stronger between 27.26 and 27.57 and then minor to decent at 28.50. Support from the intra-day chart is found at 25.02 and at 24.56 and on an intra-week basis at 24.26/24.28. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls but only because the 24.26/24.28 level is such an important intra-week support level.

RIG bears failed to take the stock below the previous week's low in spite of it being a high probability and as such a short-covering rally of 10% from the previous week's all-time intra-week low occurred. More importantly, the bulls were able to close the stock above the previous all-time low daily and weekly closing lows at 7.87/7.88 (closed on Friday at 7.97), meaning that if there is follow through this coming week on both a daily and weekly closing basis that the possibilities of a bottom having been found will increase. Nonetheless, the bulls must do a lot more before they can claim any success. Minor but likely indicative intra-week resistance is found at 8.55. A rally above that level would be a clearer indication that a bottom has been found. As far as support is concerned, there is none until minor intra-day support is found between 7.65 and 7.70. A drop below 7.20 would now be an additional and strong sell signal. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .123 (new price 1.48).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.12.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 22.21.

4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.82.

5) GS - Averaged short at 229,.705 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 230.71. Stock closed on Friday at 222.47.

6) SLCA - Purchased at 24.67. Stop loss at 22.61. Stock closed on Friday at 25.84.

7) RIG - Averaged long at 9.22 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.97.

8) CLB - Averaged long at 100.11 (2 mentions) No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 89.61.

9) AMTD - Shorted at 46.01. Stop loss now at 44.80. Stock closed on Friday at 43.15.

10) MNK - Averaged long at 42.733 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 39.01.

11) ADSK - Shorted at 109.73. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 114.97.

12) ADSK - Shorted at 111.46. Covered shorts at 114.25. Loss on the trade of $279 per 100 shares plus commissions.

13) ARNA - Purchased at 20.16. Stop loss at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 22.21.

14) AKAM - Shorted at 45.79. Stop loss at 47.39. Stock closed on Friday at 44.98.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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