Issue #547
October 22, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Runaway Freight Train Scenario Continues as Budget Approved!

DOW Friday closing price - 23328
SPX Friday closing price - 2575
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 6629

The indexes continued the dizzying upward rally, having made a new weekly closing high each week for the past 6 weeks. Once again, the indexes closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW above 23328, SPX above 2575, and the NASDAQ above 6640).

This past week the bulls did not have it as easy as they have had it other weeks as some negative action was seen on Thursday that generated sell signals on the intraday chart for the first time in 15 trading days when the 200 10-minute MA was broken in the SPX and the NASDAQ. Nonetheless, the negatives disappeared on Friday when Congress agreed on the Budget, which in turn opened the door for Tax Reform to be addressed and possibly passed in the near future. The possibility of Tax Reform has been the "main driver" of the unique rally that has been seen this year.

Attention will probably be shifted this week to the NASDAQ as AMZN and GOOGL report earnings on Thursday afternoon. By the same token, the DOW also sees at least a half dozen earnings reports on important companies (MMM, CAT, GM, MCD and MSFT) this week and both Wednesday and Thursday are loaded with earnings reports, suggesting that by next Friday the earnings outlook for this quarter is likely to be clearly defined.

The indexes, seemingly in an exhaustion run due to 6 weeks in a row of green weekly closes and 7 months in a row of green monthly closes, as well as 11 out of the last 12 months being green as well, could be facing a pivotal 7 trading days, given that most of the important earnings reports will be out by the end of this week and the monthly close is a week from Tuesday.

To the upside, there are no resistance levels above in any of the indexes, given that the indexes are all at new all-time highs and that the DOW last week broke convincingly the 23,000 level. That is the 4th psychological resistance level broken this year.

As such, the traders will be paying close attention to the support levels below. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at Thursday's low at 23052, and then nothing until 22,219. The SPX shows minor support at Thursday's low at 2547 and then nothing of consequence until minor to perhaps decent support at 2448. The NASDAQ shows minor support at Thursday's low at 6568 and then nothing until decent support is reached at 6343. By the same token, some support will be found at the previous all-time high weekly close at 6460. By the same token and with the recent history of the 200 10-minute MA, if that line is once again broken (after the positive news about the budget being passed) it will be seen as a strong signal that the upside is over. The MA line is currently at 23085 in the DOW, at 2560 in the SPX and at 6617 in the NAZ. That line is now likely to be used by the traders as the first signal that the "runaway freight train" scenario has come to an end.

As mentioned last week, during the last 12 months and using the DOW and the RSI oscillator (Relative Strength Index - most used overbought/oversold oscillator), there have been only 17 trading days (out of 261) when the RSI was above 84. Presently the RSI is at 93 and that is the highest seen since March 1st when the DOW reached a peak at 21169 and then proceeded to drop 800 points during the next 6 weeks. Nonetheless, in that period of time the RSI first got above 90 on February 21st and stayed above 90 for the next 7 trading days while the index rallied from 20743 to 21115 (a rally of 372 points). Friday was the 6th days in a row that the RSI has been above 90 on this occasion and that could mean that on Tuesday that oscillator could start moving down, meaning either sideways or negative trading action.

The index market is presently experiencing a rally situation not seen since 1994-1995 when the DOW rallied from 3612 to 4767 (24.3%) over a period of 8 months without any correction being seen. This rally has taken the index from 17783 to 22905 (22.4%) over a period of 11 months without a correction being seen. As such, it can be said the index is experiencing a rally not seen over the past 22 years and that includes the 2000 rally, the 2007 rally and the 2009 rally from the 6469 low. In none of those periods did the index do what it has done over the past 11 months.

It is likely that the index market will continue higher this week given the positive news that came out. Nonetheless, it is evident that "time is running out" for the bulls to continue moving the indexes higher before some type of correction of consequence occurs. In 1995 the DOW corrected 4.7% before resuming the uptrend. If that same thing occurs now and using last week's high, it would suggest a correction back down to 21192. By the same token, in 1995 the index was on a rally from a major long term low, which is not the case now as this index has been on a rally for the 21 months from a strong correction low (not from a major low), meaning that corrections at this point are likely to be stronger than in 1995.

Probabilities continue to favor the bulls this week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no mentions this week. Purchases offer either too much risk and low reward or not enough probability rating and Sales have very low probability ratings at this time due to the "runaway freight train" scenario that is presently in place. In addition, the earnings that came out last week did not clear up anything, meaning that the traders will wait for more earnings reports to come out before doing anything different from what they have been doing recently. By the same token, the market is strongly overbought and probably overpriced and likely to head lower after most of the important earnings reports have come out, meaning that toward the end of the week or perhaps the beginning of next week a correction might begin.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

AMZN generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 11-week high and then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 980.24 will be seen this week. The red weekly close made the previous weeks close at 1002.94 into a successful retest of the decent resistance at the $1000 demilitarized zone as well as a successful retest of the all-time high weekly close at 1025.67. As such, it can now be said that the chart is fulfilled to the upside and that some downside action is now likely to be seen, if and when the earnings report on November 2nd has no strong surprises to the upside (unlikely). To the downside and on an intraweek basis, there is minor to perhaps decent support at 951.01 and then again at 936.36.33. Below that level, there is decent and likely pivotal support at 931.75 and then decent at 927.00. On a weekly closing basis, there is minor support at 978.31 and then again at 968.00. Below that, there is minor to decent support at 955.10 that also looks somewhat pivotal and then decent and definitely pivotal support 945.26. To the upside and on an intraweek basis, there is minor to perhaps decent but also likely indicative resistance at 1000.00 that should not be broken at this time, if and when the chart is now fulfilled to the upside. The chart suggests that the stock should get down to the 950.00 level early this week and then react (break support or rally back up to 1000.00) to whatever the earnings report shows.

ARNA made a new 25-month intraweek and weekly closing high on Friday and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 28.28 will be seen this week. On an intraweek basis, there is very minor resistance at 29.85 but on a weekly closing basis, the resistance is minor to perhaps decent between 28.00 and 29.30. By the same token, the resistance in that area is mostly old and somewhat weak as they go back 8 years and they are mostly from previous low weekly closes. The objective of this rally is likely the 200-week MA, currently at 31.70. Nonetheless, that objective is on a weekly closing basis as there is no resistance above the $30 demilitarized zone until 34.70 is reached. It is unlikely that the MA line will be broken the first time it is seen, meaning that taking profits around the 34.70 level should be considered if seen. If the stock can establish itself this week above the 27.00 level, that level will then become support. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

BHTG had an uneventful inside week but did generate a green weekly close, suggesting that the bulls and the bears are now evenly matched and that further downside below the recent low at 5.01 is not likely to be seen. The stock did close on the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 5.70 is likely to be seen. Support should be found at 5.50. Pivotal resistance is now found at 6.30 that if broken is likely to regenerate interest in resuming the uptrend. Nonetheless, for this coming week more of the same as seen the last 7 trading days (which is sideways trading) is likely to occur with 5.50 to 6.00 as the most likely trading range to occur.

CAT made yet again (the 6th week in a row) a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 132.12 is expected to be seen. Nonetheless, the stock started to show some wear and tear this week, given that the new all-time high was made on Monday and no further follow through was seen the rest of the week in spite of the indexes heading higher 4 of the 5 days of the week, especially on Friday. The company reports earnings on Tuesday before the opening of the market and that will likely dictate what the stock does this week. Pivotal intraweek support is now found at 129.40 and resistance at 132.12. Probabilities favor the bulls.

CLF generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 5-week high and then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 6.88 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, the downside objective of closing the gap at 6.96 was fulfilled, meaning that further downside of consequence (below 6.66) would be a negative. On a negative note, the stock is showing a bearish inverted flag formation that if broken (a break below 6.66) would suggest a drop down to 5.62. By the same token, if the bears fail to take the stock lower this week and generate a weekly close below 6.86 next Friday, it is likely that a rally back up to 8.00 would start and that would negate the bearish flag. As such, this coming week seems to be pivotal. Probabilities very slightly favor the bears but the $7 level is considered weekly close support and likely to be defended, especially since the company reported earnings this past week and the bears did not get enough ammunition to break support.

ENG generated another red weekly close (the 4th in a row) and a new 6-week intraweek low at 1.12 but the bears have not yet been able to make a negative statement as the previous 2 intraweek lows at 1.10 and 1.06 remain unbroken. The stock closed in the middle of the week's trading range and as such, a rally above last week's high at 1.22 or below last week's low at 1.12 is likely to be indicative. The company reports earnings a week from next Thursday and as such, the probabilities favor an uneventful week but likely with a small upward bias as it is unlikely that another red weekly close occurs before the earnings report as it would suggest a negative commitment would have been made by the traders. As such, the probabilities favor the stock moving up to at least the 1.24 to 1.30 level this week. A drop below 1.10 would be a negative while a rally above 1.44 a positive.

FCEL generated an uneventful inside week but did generate a green weekly close as well as in the upper half of the week's trading range, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.25 will be seen this week. The stock has gotten down to the 2.01 to 2.03 area 4 times over the past 9 trading days, suggesting that the pivotal support at that level has been tested and has held up week, suggesting the traders may now test the resistance areas above at 2.37 and 2.49 and if broken the recent uptrend resume. Support is now minor to decent at 2.01. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

GS generated a positive reversal week, having made a new 2-week low and then closing in the green and on the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 245.25 will be seen this week. The company reported earnings last week and they were better than expected but after a slightly higher opening the stock sold 4% from the highs to close in the red and on the lows of the week. Nonetheless, no follow through to that sell off was seen and the stock is now back to the high seen right after the earnings report came out. Intraweek resistance of some consequence is found between last 247.07 and 247.77 that likely will require further upside in the index market to break. Support is now decent and pivotal at last week's low at 235.19. Given the 5 weeks of sideways trading between 235.37 and 247.77 seen between December and January, the probabilities favor that scenario occurring again. It has now been 3 weeks that the stock has traded in that range, meaning that the probabilities favor another 1-3 weeks of the same thing occurring again. A rally above 247.77 or below 235.19 would be indicative. Probabilities favor further upside this week but limited in nature with 246.20 as the likely upside objective.

MNK generated another new all-time intraweek and weekly closing low on Friday and closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 31.51 than above last week's high at 33.77. Nonetheless, some buying interest (though small in nature) was seen this week, given that the stock made the low of the week on Tuesday and 2 green daily closes were seen thereafter, suggesting that either the stock has found a temporary low or is close to an area where buyers are willing to step up. In addition, Thursday's low was below Wednesday's low, meaning that it is possible that a successful retest of the 31.51 low was made on the daily chart. Short-term pivotal resistance is now found at 32.90 that if broken would confirm Thursday's low as a successful retest of the all-time low. By the same token, the bulls need to get above last week's high at 33.77 to generate new buying interest with a probable upside objective of 37.00. By the same token, a break below 31.51 would keep the door open for a drop down to the $30 psychological support level. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

SLCA generated a new 5-week low and a close in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 27.42 will be seen this week. The bulls attempted to rally the stock on Wednesday when a small spike up rally occurred but the bears continued to have the edge as the close that day was near the lows of the day. As such, that spike high at 29.29 is now considered pivotal resistance. The probabilities continue to favor the bears and further downside with minor intraweek support at 26.88 and decent at 26.35. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent and likely to hold up at 26.71.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .18 (new price 2.17).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.16.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 27.28.

4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.02.

5) GS - Covered Shorts at 238.19. Shorted at 246.10. Profit on the trade of $791 per 100 shares minus commissions.

6) SLCA - Averaged long at 25.375 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 27.99.

7) CAT - Shorted at 130.83. Stop loss at 132.35. Stock closed on Friday at 131.36.

8) AMZN - Shorted at 987.95. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1002.94.

9) AMZN - Shorted at 1009.45. Covered shorts at 1008.51. Profit on the trade of $94 per 50 shares minus commissions.

10) MNK - Averaged long at 42.733 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.29.

11) ADSK - Covered shorts at 120.75. Shorted at 116.84. Loss on the trade of $391 per 100 shares plus commissions.

12) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. Stop loss at 4.65. Stock closed on Friday at 5.70.

13) ARNA - Purchased at 20.16. Stop loss now at 25.05. Stock closed on Friday at 27.28.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

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