Issue #544 ![]() September 24, 2017 | Newsletter
The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes |
Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation
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Indexes on Elevator to the Penthouse!
DOW Friday closing price - 22773
The indexes have been on an elevator ride to the penthouse for the past 11 months (since the election of Donald Trump) with the only thing not known is "how many floors does this building have"? Since the last week of October 2016, the DOW has rallied 4894 points (21.4%), the SPX has rallied 469 points (18.4%) and the NASDAQ has rallied 1556 points (23.7%).
The indexes seem to be on an exhaustion run since last week the DOW generated the biggest trading range week (361 points) seen since the third week of February when the index rallied 395 points. It must be mentioned that in February the index had rallied for 6 weeks and 1492 points since a minor correction occurred before the bears were able to push down, and now the index has rallied for 6 weeks and 1177 points since a minor correction occurred and since the index closed on the highs of the week and the 23000 psychological resistance is only 227 points above Friday's close, it would suggest that a repeat of what happened in February might occur now from the 23000 level, which was a correction of 790 points over a period of 7 weeks once a temporary top to the rally was found.
The earnings quarter begins this week and generally speaking over the past few years, the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter are strongly supported. Nonetheless and in looking at the past 3 years, it has been the NASDAQ and Tech Stocks earnings that have driven the market up. The DOW and the SPX have been followers and not leaders during the first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter. With AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL and PCLN all showing topping out formations and all trading near strong psychological resistance levels, as well as the Tech Industry now being called fundamentally well-priced, it does seem unlikely that the NAZ will be able to lead the market up on this earnings quarter, suggesting that the bulls will not get the kind of ammunition they need to keep the "elevator" going up much further.
There is no resistance levels above in any of the indexes as they are all at new all-time highs. From a psychological resistance scenario, the SPX is now well above 2500 and the NASDAQ is now well above 6500, meaning those indexes do not have psychological resistance levels any more. The DOW does have some psychological resistance strength at 23000 but it is not likely to be a leader of the market, meaning that the bulls seem to have "open air" above for further upside, at least from a chart point of view.
The bulls are now in full control and other than some unexpectedly negative earnings or economic news coming out (not likely), there is nothing to stop them from continuing to run the market up. Nonetheless and on a possible negative note, the SPX PE ratio is presently at 25.42 (median is 15.42) and that is considered high, given that since 1880, anything between 23.00 and 25.00 has been seen as "too high in price". On the other side of the coin, there have been 6 exceptions to the last 137 years as the PE ratio between 1998 and 2003 averaged 33.42 and in January 2009 the PE ratio spiked up to 70. As such, it can be said with confidence that prices presently are "too high" but that this could be one of the exception years.
With no resistance above and the indexes having moved straight up for the last 2 weeks, the biggest concern for the traders is a loss of momentum, given that support levels are far away and anything that works as an obstacle will likely generate a strong profit taking drop.
To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 22219 and then and on a daily closing basis at the previous all-time high daily close at 22118. The SPX shows minor support at 2488 and then and on a daily closing basis at the previous all-time daily closing high at 2480. The NASDAQ shows daily close support at the previous all-time daily closing high at 6465 and then nothing until decent as well as pivotal support at 6343.
The earnings quarter starts on Thursday morning with C and JPM reporting and that is followed by BAC and WFC reporting Friday morning. On the economic front, PPI comes out on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday. None of these reports are likely to be catalytic but given the high prices of the indexes and the lack of support below, if they are at all indicative of lower than expected earnings, it will likely generate new selling interest or a profit taking binge.
Though the probabilities continue to favor the bulls this week, the uncertainty of maintaining these high levels is likely to weigh on the market, especially given that the first earnings reports are in the financial industry and those in the past have generally generated some selling interest even if better than expected. In addition, the SPX and the NASDAQ do have psychological magnets to the downside at 2500 and 6500 that should keep the upside limited. Though those levels are not likely to be tested until after the first 3 weeks of the earnings reports are finished, they will work against much higher prices until the big Tech reports come out in the 3rd and 4th week of the month.
Expectation for this week is for higher prices at the beginning of the week but limited and with some backing and filling as well as low volatility being seen.
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Stock Analysis/Evaluation
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CHART Outlooks
There are no mentions this week. Purchases offer either too much risk and low reward or not enough probability rating and Sales have very low probability ratings at this time due to the "runaway freight train" scenario that is presently in place. In addition, the earnings quarter starts this week and usually the market is supported during the first 3 weeks of it. By the same token, the strong rally seen the past 2 weeks suggests that much of the rally might be anticipation of the earnings quarter, likely meaning that much better than anticipated earnings will have to occur in order to generate any further upside of consequence. Either way, this coming week is not likely to be a good trading week for either purchases or sales.
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Updates
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Monthly & Yearly Portfolio Results
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Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes
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Status of account for 2007: Profit of $9,758 per 100 shares after losses and commissions were subtracted.
Loss of $3107 using 100 shares per mention (after commissions & losses) Closed out profitable trades for September per 100 shares per mention (after commission)
GS (short) $1912
Closed positions with increase in equity above last months close minus commissions.
CLB (long) $3114 Total Profit for September, per 100 shares and after commissions $5193 Closed out losing trades for September per 100 shares of each mention (including commission)
TOL (short) $270
GS (short) $129 ZBRA (short) $296 GS (short) $90 GS (short) $67 Closed positions with decrease in equity below last months close plus commissions.
AMTD (short) $359 Total Loss for September, per 100 shares, including commissions $1233 Open positions in profit per 100 shares per mention as of 9/30
ADSK (short) $458
Open positions with increase in equity above last months close.
ARNA (long) $93 ARNA(long) $232 SLCA (long) $1158 FCEL (long) $7 Total $1948 Open positions in loss per 100 shares per mention as of 9/30
NONE
Open positions with decrease in equity below last months close.
CLF (long) $363 Total $1480 Status of trades for month of September per 100 shares on each mention after losses and commission subtractions.
Profit of $4428
Status of account/portfolio for 2017, as of 9/30Profit of $1321 using 100 shares traded per mention.
ADSK made a new all-time weekly closing high on Friday and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 117.61 will be seen this week. By the same token, the stock is still below the intraweek spike high at 119.73 that looms like a difficult resistance level to break, especially since the last 3 all-time daily closing highs saw selling interest and a failure signal come out the next day (on July 26th the stock closed at 114.08, above the previous all-time high at 113.89 and the following day closed at 111.52 and 10 days later at 104.98. On August 25th the stock closed at 114.98 and the very next day it closed at 111.48. On September 11th the stock closed at 116.48 and the next day it closed at 116.16 and 10 days later at 109.82). Based on the recent history, it does suggest a red close on Monday and downside interest for the next 2 weeks. The stock does not report earnings for another 5 weeks. Intraweek resistance is found at 119.73 that if broken would suggest further upside would be seen. Support is not found until 112.22 but if seen and broken, a drop back down to 109.25 would then likely be seen.
AMZN made a new 10-week high weekly close and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 995.75 will be seen this week. The close above the previous weekly closing high at 986.79 seen 4 weeks ago does negate the sell signal given the first week of August when the stock broke the weekly close support at 968.00. Nonetheless, it has been said by several fundamental analysts that the stock is fairly valued at $1000 and that it is unlikely to get much above that level at this time, meaning that the probabilities favor a sideways trading range as long as the indexes maintain themselves at these high prices. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 1000.00 and minor to perhaps decent between 1016.73 and 1017.00. Decent weekly close resistance is found at 1025.67. To the downside and on an intraweek basis, very minor support is found at 981.73, and then minor to perhaps decent at 960.60. Decent support is found at 931.75. The big question for this week is whether the resistance at 1000.00 will be broken or not. If not, then the traders are likely to push the stock down to close the gap that was created this past week between 967.79 and 969.64. If broken, a rally up to the 1016.50-1017.00 is likely to be seen. Overall, the chart suggests the stock will be in a sideways trading range between $950 and $1017. Probabilities favor the bulls this week. ARNA made another new 2-year weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 26.16 will be seen this week. The stock still shows intra-week resistance at 27.86 but with no history of resistance there, the probabilities favor a run up to the 200-week MA, currently at 32.10, to be seen over the next 2-4 weeks, likely before the earnings report due out on November 6th. The stock did more idling with a very slight upward bias than rallying this past week and that is likely to continue this week as the bulls attempt to get up to 27.86 to see if there is still selling interest there. Support is now short-term pivotal at 24.41. The bulls do have the edge right now but upside gains are likely to be labored until 27.86 is broken. CLF generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 3 week high but then closing in the red and on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 7.05 will be seen this week. Earlier in the week, the bulls had been able to generate a buy signal but no follow through was seen and now the bears have the edge again. Likely pivotal intraweek support is found at 6.91/6.95 that if broken would suggest the recent low at 6.66 would be tested. The chart is suggesting that the stock may be presently in a sideways trading range between 6.90 and 8.00 as the traders await the earnings report on Friday October 20th. This is a short-term pivotal week in which the bulls must hold the stock above the 6.90 level and generate a positive reversal week next Friday. ENG bulls failed to generate any further upside after closing above the pivotal 1.31 level a few weeks ago and now the stock having closed 2 weeks in a row below that level is back into a sideways trading range as the traders likely await the earnings report on November 8th. On a weekly closing basis, support is decent at 1.15 but the bulls have been able to keep the stock above a short-term minor to perhaps decent support at 1.23, which is the low daily close for the past 6 weeks. The stock closed on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday at 1.23 and at 1.24 on Friday, suggesting the traders are using that level as short-term pivotal support. Resistance on both the daily and weekly closing chart is firm at 1.31, meaning that the probabilities favor the stock trading on a daily closing basis in that very narrow trading range between 1.23 and 1.31. A daily close below that level would suggest a drop down to 1.15 and a close above that level would suggest a rally up to 1.40. Probabilities favor more of the same this week. FCEL made a new 10-month intraweek and weekly closing high this past week after Oppenheimer initiated coverage with an outperform rating and a $4 objective. The stock closed in the upper half of the week's trading range suggesting further upside above last week's high at 2.49 will be seen this week. Very minor intraweek resistance is found at 3.35 and minor on a weekly closing basis at 3.10. Resistance of any consequence is not found until the $5 demilitarized zone is reached (4.70-5.30). Support is now found at the 2.00, which also happens to be where the gap (1.89-1.99) occurred after the upgrade. Probabilities favor the bulls and a run to the $4-$5 area. GS has been on a run the past 2 weeks since the bulls were able to break above the 6-month sideways trading range between $213 and $230. The stock closed on Friday above a minor but short-term pivotal weekly close resistance at 244.90, meaning that on a weekly closing basis there is no resistance above until the $250-$253 level is reached. The stock closed near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 247.07 is expected to be seen. On a possible negative note, the stock generated a negative reversal day on Friday, having made a new 6-month high and then closing in the red, suggesting the first course of business for the week may be to the downside. Minor support is found at 245.41 and then nothing until 239.05, meaning that if the stock goes below last week's low at 244.61 that another $5 to the downside would likely be seen. The company reports earnings on Tuesday October 17th (a week from next Tuesday). Probabilities favor the bulls and a run up to the $250 level. MNK generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 4-week high and then closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 35.34 will be seen this week. Likely pivotal intraweek support is found at 35.04 that if broken convincingly would suggest the all-time low at 33.61 would be tested and possibly broken, thus keeping the downtrend intact. By the same token, if 35.04 is seen but not broken and a positive reversal occurs from that level, it would be seen as the required retest of the all-time low and would give the bulls some new ammunition. With 4 of the rating companies still offering upside objectives of anywhere from $54-$65 dollars, the probabilities favor the stock getting down to $35 and turning around. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 39.05 and more indicative and pivotal resistance is found at 41.70. Probabilities very slightly favor the bulls this week. SLCA confirmed the negative reversal that was seen the previous week, having generated a lower intraweek low as well as another red weekly close. The stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range and further downside below last week's low at 29.71 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless and on a possible positive note, the stock traded most of the week above the previous week's close and the bears needed a negative reversal day on Friday to generate the red weekly close, suggesting that there is a decent amount of buy interest at the $30 level. Intraweek support is found at 29.71 and then at 28.51. On a daily closing basis, support could be pivotal at 29.33, given that it was the 2-month daily close resistance that when broken generated the rally up to 33.42. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls even though the first course of action for the week is likely to be to the downside.
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1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .188 (new price 2.26). 2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.24. 3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 25.99. 4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.10. 5) GS - Shorted at 246.10. Stop loss at 247.87. Stock closed on Friday at 246.02. 6) SLCA - Purchased at 26.08. Averaged long at 25.375 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 28.41. Stock closed on Friday at 30.63. 7) ZBRA - Covered shorts at 109.32. Shorted at 106.50. Loss on the trade of $282 per 100 shares plus commissions. 8) AMZN - Shorted at 987.95. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 989.58. 9) AMZN - Shorted at 960.48. Covered shorts at 971,53. Loss on the trade of $552 per 50 shares plus commissions. 10) MNK - Averaged long at 42.733 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 35.81. 11) ADSK - Shorted at 116.84. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 116.96. 12) TOL - Covered shorts at 40.89. Averaged short at 39.61. Loss on the trade of $256 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions. 13) ARNA - Purchased at 20.16. Stop loss now at 24.31. Stock closed on Friday at 25.99. 14) DDD - Purchased at 14.02. Liquidated at 13.68. Loss on the trade of $34 per 100 shares plus commissions. 15) GS - Covered shorts at 232.92. Averaged short at 232.69. Loss on the trade of $46 per 100 shares (2 mentions) plus commissions.
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The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather
a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or
that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences.
No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The
information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct
but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions. The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies. |
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