Issue #544
September 24, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Mixed Signals Weaken Bull Resolve!

DOW Friday closing price - 22349
SPX Friday closing price - 2502
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 6426

The indexes had a mixed week but some signs of a possible top to the rally were seen, given than the NASDAQ generated a negative reversal week, having made a new all-time high at 6477 but then going below the previous week's low and closing in the red, the SPX barely squeezing a 2 point gain for the week and the DOW extending its gains but then all closing in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting further downside below last week's lows will be seen this week.

On 5 of the past 6 years, the indexes have either shown some down movement heading into the start of the October earnings quarter or immediately after. The only year that did not happen was in 2015 and that year the indexes had just finished a strong 15%+ correction in the weeks prior. In 2012, a year somewhat similar to this one, the indexes headed lower the entire month of October, with the DOW generating a 9% correction starting the very first week of October and finally bottoming out the second week of November. With the earnings outlook for the 3rd quarter continuing to be positive but with more volatility and less appreciation expected, the probabilities do not favor much further upside at this time.

All indexes are showing a breakaway/runaway gap formation with the DOW between 21846 and 21927 and between 22067 and 22087, the SPX between 2467 and 2474 and between 2488 and 2490 and the NASDAQ between 6226 and 6228 and between 6391 and 6410. The breakaway/runaway gap formation is a powerful indicator of immediate and strong extension of trend but when the runaway gap is closed it normally suggest the breakaway gap will be closed and that the trend has at least paused.

The NASDAQ will likely be the key this week as the index has already shown a reluctance to continue the uptrend, having reached 6460 9 weeks ago and then breaking that level 3 times since then but only gaining a total of 17 points, compared to the DOW that has gained 579 points during the same period of time. In addition, the index got "into" the runaway gap this week, having gotten down to 6400 on Friday before turning around to close on the highs of the day. With the index having closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, the probabilities now favor the runaway gap being closed this week, which would immediately give the bears some new ammunition they have not had for weeks.

The SPX and NASDAQ both generated a positive reversal day on Friday, having made the week's low that day but then closing in the green, suggesting the first course of action for the week will be to the upside. With all indexes having made new all-time highs earlier in the week and no retest of those highs having been seen yet, it is likely that Monday's expected up move above Friday's highs will be seen as a possible retest of those highs if no new highs are made. If that scenario does occur, it would be a clear sign to the traders that some corrective or down action will begin.

Should the runaway gap in the NASDAQ at 6391 be closed, it could be the first domino falling that could take all the indexes down to close all the gap formations across the board. It must be mentioned that on the weekly chart, the NASDAQ shows no support below at all until 6177 is reached, meaning that the index could correct a total of about 4.7% before any chart buying of consequence be found.

There are a number of economic reports this coming week that could be small catalysts for movement, starting with Consumer Confidence on Tuesday that is already at a 17-year high, Durable Goods on Wednesday that is anticipated to come in better than last month's .7% number (expected at 1.0%) and the 3rd estimate of GDP that is already at a 3-year high and unlikely to appreciate further, meaning that there doesn't seem to be a lot of potential fuel for the bulls to keep the indexes heading higher in these reports.

As such, the probabilities seem to favor the indexes heading higher on Monday and possibly Tuesday but not making new all-time highs, followed by weakness the last 2-3 days of the week and the NASDAQ and possibly the SPX closing the runaway gaps before Friday.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

Mixed signals open the door for the bears. History suggests some selling interest might be seen at this time, a few weeks before the 3rd quarter earnings reports begin.

This week there are 2 mentions. One is a short position in a stock that has been "spinning its wheels while the indexes rally" and the other a purchase in a stock that is likely not tied in to the overall market but shows a decent risk/reward ratio and probability rating.

SALES

GS Friday Closing Price 231.03

GS made a new 6-month weekly closing high on Friday but not an intraweek high as the stock got up to 235.83 the first week of August. The stock did close near the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 232.10 is expected to be seen this week. Nonetheless, in looking at the weekly closing chart, the multi-week closing high is not as indicative as first though given that it has already happened twice previously without it generating any follow through of consequence. In the first week of May the stock closed at 226.87 and then dropped all the way down to 213.31, in the second week of July, the stock made a higher weekly closing high at 228.60 but then fell 220.18, again in the last week of July the stock closed at 229.67 and then fell to 217.21, suggesting that Friday's closing high at 231.03 could end up the same way.

In addition and during the entire 6 months, none of these weekly closing highs have been high enough to negate the low weekly close made in January at 232.20, from which all the weakness seen the past 6 months has been based on. Simply stated, the bulls have not been able to negate the break of support that has made the stock a sell on rallies.

GS is likely to head higher at the beginning of the week, in conjunction with the index market, but like with the indexes, selling interest could be seen late in the week.

Last week's high 232.10 and with 232.20 being the low weekly close that got broken in March, selling interest is likely to begin there and on up to the intraweek high at 235.83. In looking at the weekly closing chart during the past 6 months, a strong case can be made for an extended inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from 252.89 to 213.31 and the 6-month flag the trading back up to Friday's close or even up to the 232.20 level from which the break occurred. Such a formation offers a downside target of around $193 over the next 6-8 months.

Sales of GS above 232.20 and using a stop loss at 235.93 and having a 193.00 objective will offer a 13-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 3.5 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

PURCHASES

BHTG Friday Closing Price - 6.70

BHTG is a waste management company that has come up with a novel idea to get rid of waste by using a leasable machine to "digest" the waste and turn it into water that can be disposed of via the drain.

BHTG has been trading for almost 2 years but 7 weeks ago broke out above its all-time high, suggesting that the concept is gaining a foothold among traders. The negatives is that the stock is traded "Over the Counter" and has small volume (average of about 25k per day), which is something that needs to be considered strongly before trading.

Nonetheless, the first week of August BHTG broke above its 2 year weekly closing high at 4.75 and quickly doubled in price to 9.50 over a period of only 2 weeks. Since that high was made, the stock came back down and closed at 4.78 4 weeks ago, suggesting the breakout has now been tested successfully.

BHTG rallied up to 7.65 3 weeks ago but for the past 2 weeks has been sliding back down with 6.11-6.20 as the likely downside target. Though the stock got down to 6.25 last week and rallied to close at 6.70, the close (in the exact middle of the week's trading range) still suggests a higher probability of more downside being seen this week and the desired entry point being reached.

To the upside and on an intraweek basis, BHTG shows resistance at 7.65, at 9.50 and psychological at $10.

Purchases of BGTH below 6.20 and using a stop loss at 4.65 and having a 10.00 objective will offer a 3-1 risk/reward ratio.

My rating on the trade is a 2.75 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest). The low rating is mostly because it is a low volume stock that is traded over the counter.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ADSK generated a small failure signal, having closed on Friday below the previous all-time high weekly close at 113.03. In addition, the stock now shows a successful retest of the all-time intraweek high at 119.73, having gone below the previous week's low which makes the previous week's high at 117.12 into that successful retest. The stock closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 111.35 will be seen this week. Minor intraweek support is found between 109.04 and 109.25 and then again at 105.60 and minor to decent support is found at 104.77. Minor to perhaps decent resistance is found between 114.68 and 115.25. The inability of the bulls to generate a resumption of the uptrend after the better than expected earnings report that came out 4 weeks ago, followed by trading once again below the previous highs before the report does suggest a lack of buying interest at these prices. Probabilities favor the bears.

ARNA made a new 2-year weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 25.31 will be seen this week. In addition, with the close above the major low weekly close from 2009 at 24.60 the stock now shows no weekly close resistance above until 30.75, suggesting that the stock could begin a new run to the upside. The stock is still showing some minor intraweek resistance at 26.80 and slightly stronger at the July high at 27.86 but given that there is no prior history of resistance at those levels, the probabilities now favor those levels being reached and likely surpassed. In fact, in 2009 after the low weekly close at 24.60 occurred, the stock rallied for 9 straight weeks (up to 56.40) and in 2012 after the stock re-established itself above 24.60 the second time around (after testing the $20 level successfully), it also ran for 9 weeks up to 135.00. As such, the probabilities now favor the stock heading higher with the 200-week MA, currently at 32.45, as the primary objective. Last week's low at 24.13 should now be considered short-term pivotal support as any weakness now would be seen as a failure. Probabilities favor the bulls this week.

CLF generated a short-term sell signal, having made a new 10-week low and closing below the established daily close support at 7.10. The stock closed near the lows of the week and further downside below last week's low at 6.78 is expected to be seen. The stock remains in an uptrend on the weekly chart but on a short-term basis some additional selling in likely to be seen, much like what was seen when the stock first got up to the 200-week MA in February and then broke the support at 8.28 and continued lower to 5.56. The bulls have now tested the 5+year MA twice and it is likely that the next time will be the "charm" but for now the probabilities favor a drop back to the 2-year uptrend line that is currently at 6.40. Though the short-term chart (1-3 weeks) may "slightly" favor the bears, the longer term formation suggests that a solid bottom has been built and that ultimately the bulls are likely to be the victors. Pivotal support though is found at 5.56 that if broken would then put the bears back in long-term control. Pivotal resistance is now found at 7.42 that is broken would give the bulls short-term control.

ENG confirmed the previous week's breakout above the pivotal 1.29/1.31 resistance area with a new 4-month high weekly close. The stock closed on the highs of the week and further upside above last week's high at 1.40 is expected to be seen this week. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance is found at 1.46 and again at 1.58. Above that level, there is no resistance until decent resistance is found at 1.72. On weekly closing basis though, there is decent resistance at 1.63 that includes the 200-week MA, currently at 1.64. Decent intraweek support is now found at 1.20 but on a weekly closing basis it is at 1.29/1.31. The chart suggests that enough base building has been done to support a rally of consequence. The 200-week MA is certainly the main short-term target but that line has not proven over the past 3 years to be a "stopper", meaning that the bulls are able to get above 1.72 that there is a decent chance the stock could run an additional $1 to the upside. Probabilities favor the bulls.

FCEL made a new 7-month weekly closing high and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.79 will be seen this week. Minor intraweek resistance is found at 1.85 and minor to decent at 1.97 and at 2.05. The traders are evidently positive on this stock at this time, given that 16 out of the last 18 weeks have generated green weekly closes. The chart suggests that the stock will be moving up to the 1.97-2.05 area and then perhaps a correction back down to 1.60 could occur. The 200-day MA, currently at 1.47, now has to be considered a strong and pivotal support for the longer term. Probabilities favor the bulls.

MNK generated a positive reversal week, having made a new all-time intraweek low at 33.61 and then closing in the green and near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 35.23 will be seen this week. Short-term pivotal resistance is found at 37.47 that is broken would suggest the $40 level would be targeted. Minor support is found at 34.51 and then at the all-time low at 33.61. Any daily close above 35.63 this coming week would be an added positive as a small failure signal against the bears would be generated, given that 35.63 was the previous all-time low daily close. Probabilities slightly favor the bulls this week.

SLCA extended its recent uptrend with another green weekly close, the 4th in a row. Additionally, the rate of ascension increased this week (biggest upward trading range in the last 6 weeks), suggesting that there are more shorts covering and more new buying interest being seen. There is no intraweek resistance above until minor at 34.20, minor to perhaps decent at 35.37 and decent between 36.20 and 37.48. The 200-week MA, currently at 36.10, is a potential target but that is not a line that has yet been established as indicative on this stock. Chart suggests that the stock may get into a trading range between 30.63 and 37.14 for the next 8-12 weeks, much like what was seen between October 2013 and January 2014. Intraweek support is found at 30.51 but with the stock seemingly "on a run", little backing and filling is expected to be seen this week. Probabilities favor the bulls.

TOL made a new 10-week intra-week high this week but the bulls were not able to accomplish anything of consequence as the resistance at the $40 demilitarized zone resistance level was not broken. In spite of the new 10-week high, the stock closed in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a higher probability of going below last week's low at 39.39 than above last week's high at 40.43. A drop below last week's low would be seen as a negative as it would stunt the recent 5-week rally that has generated higher lows and higher highs each and every week. The $40 is a firmly established resistance area going back to March 2014, suggesting that further upside likely requires positive fundamental news. Short-term pivotal support is found at 38.95 that if broken would give the bears new ammunition and a likely target of 36.93. Probabilities slightly favor the bears.

ZBRA made a new 26-month weekly closing high on Friday and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 109.19 will be seen this week. Nonetheless, on an intraweek basis, the bulls were not able to break the intraweek resistance at 109.30, meaning that the bulls are not yet in full control. On an intra-week basis and above 109.30 there is resistance at 110.46 that if broken would suggest the all-time high at 119.47 would be visited. On a weekly closing basis, there is minor but possibly indicative resistance at 109.75, which was the low weekly close that when broken in July 2015 caused the downtrend that ultimately took the stock down to 46.13. As such and under these conditions, the stop loss has now been changed from 109.35 to 110.56. The bulls are committed to talking the stock higher this week, meaning that if last week's low at 105.90 is broken, it would be seen as a negative sign. Like with the indexes, probabilities favor a rally at the beginning of the week with the potential for a late week drop.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .145 (new price 1.74).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.40.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 25.09.

4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 6.84.

5) GS - Shorted at 230.08. Covered shorts at 230.84. Loss on the trade of $76 per 100 shares plus commissions.

6) SLCA - Purchased at 26.08. Averaged long at 25.375 (2 mentions). Stop loss now at 28.41. Stock closed on Friday at 31.75.

7) ZBRA - Shorted at 106.50. Stop loss now at 110.56. Stock closed on Friday at 108.91.

8) CLB - Liquidated at 98.63. Averaged long at 95.876. Profit on the trade of $826 per 100 shares (3 mentions) minus commissions.

9) AMTD - Covered shorts at 46.77. Shorted at 46.01. Loss on the trade of $76 per 100 shares plus commissions.

10) MNK - Averaged long at 42.733 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 34.83.

11) ADSK - Shorted at 116.84. Stop loss now at 117.35. Stock closed on Friday at 111.78.

12) TOL - Shorted at 39.25. Stop loss now at 40.53. Stock closed on Friday at 39.75.

13) ARNA - Purchased at 20.16. Stop loss at 22.05. Stock closed on Friday at 25.09.


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Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




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