Issue #546
October 15, 2017
The Oasis

Newsletter


The newsletter with chart analysis for stocks and stock indexes

Stock Indexes Analysis/Evaluation


Runaway Freight Train Scenario Continues!

DOW Friday closing price - 22871
SPX Friday closing price - 2553
NASDAQ Friday closing price - 6605

The indexes continued the dizzying upward rally, having made a new weekly closing high each week for the past 5 weeks. Once again, the indexes closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's highs will be seen this week (DOW above 22905, SPX above 2257, and the NASDAQ above 6616).

The traders will key on the earnings reports this week as there are few economic reports of consequence to look at. NFLX reports on Monday after the close, GS, MS, JNJ, and IBM on Tuesday, and then AXP, GE, HON, and PG the rest of the week. By the same token, with the possible exception of NFLX and GS, none of the earnings reports this week have much catalytic power. The following week, AMZN and GOOGL report as well as a slew of DOW company reports and those are likely to be have more impact than the ones this week.

The indexes seem to be on an exhaustion run given the major rally seen since Trump got elected and that has brought the highest PE ratios seen since 2003. In addition, there has been very little backing and filling seen since the election, meaning that when a top to this rally is found the support levels built along the way will not have the kind of chart strength that would keep the correction small and manageable.

To the upside, there are no resistance levels above except psychological ones and then only in the DOW at 23,000.

To the downside and on an intraweek basis, the DOW shows minor support at 22,219 and minor to perhaps decent at 21,600. The SPX shows very minor support at 2541 and then nothing until minor to perhaps decent at 2448. The NASDAQ shows minor support at 6561 and then decent at 6343. By the same token, some support will be found at the previous all-time high weekly close at 6460.

The bears are presently in hibernation and waiting for some negative catalyst to occur that will stop the runaway freight train that the indexes are presently on. The first 3 weeks of the earnings quarter have been generally supportive during the past 9 years and there is no reason at this time to believe that will change now, meaning that the probabilities favor the indexes moving higher for the next week and a half until all the big earnings reports come out. By the same token, further upside is likely to be toiled and limited given the extreme overbought condition that exists in all indexes at this time.

It must be mentioned that during the last 12 months and using the DOW and the RSI oscillator (Relative Strength Index - most used overbought/oversold oscillator), there have been only 17 trading days (out of 261) when the RSI was above 84. Presently the RSI is at 93 and that is the highest seen since March 1st when the DOW reached a peak at 21169 and then proceeded to drop 800 points during the next 6 weeks. Nonetheless, in that period of time the RSI first got above 90 on February 21st and stayed above 90 for the next 7 trading days while the index rallied from 20743 to 21115 (a rally of 372 points), meaning that something like that could happen now. If that same scenario occurs, it would suggest the index could get up to 23243 over the next 6 trading days before some type of correction begins to occur.

The index market is presently experiencing a rally situation not seen since 1994-1995 when the DOW rallied from 3612 to 4767 (24.3%) over a period of 8 months without any correction being seen. This rally has taken the index from 17783 to 22905 (22.4%) over a period of 11 months without a correction being seen. As such, it can be said the index is experiencing a rally not seen over the past 22 years and that includes the 2000 rally, the 2007 rally and the 2009 rally from the 6469 low. In none of those periods did the index do what it has done over the past 11 months.

It is likely that the index market will continue higher this week but it is evident that "time is running out" for the bulls to continue moving the indexes higher before some type of correction of consequence occurs. In 1995 the DOW corrected 4.7% before resuming the uptrend. If that same thing occurs now and using last week's high, it would suggest a correction back down to 21192. By the same token, in 1995 the index was on a rally from a major long term low, which is not the case now as this index has been on a rally for the 21 months from a strong correction low (not from a major low), meaning that corrections at this point are likely to be stronger than in 1995.

Probabilities continue to favor the bulls this week.

Stock Analysis/Evaluation
CHART Outlooks

There are no mentions this week. Purchases offer either too much risk and low reward or not enough probability rating and Sales have very low probability ratings at this time due to the "runaway freight train" scenario that is presently in place. In addition, the earnings that came out last week did not clear up anything, meaning that the traders will wait for more earnings reports to come out before doing anything different from what they have been doing recently. By the same token, the market is strongly overbought and probably overpriced and likely to head lower after most of the important earnings reports have come out, meaning that toward the end of the week or perhaps the beginning of next week a correction might begin.

Updates
Updates on Held Stocks
Closed Trades, Open Positions and Stop Loss Changes

ADSK made a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing high on Friday and closed near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 119.84 will be seen this week. In looking at the monthly chart, the probabilities of the index going higher this week by anywhere from $.55 cents to $4 are high given the pattern that has been seen the past 5 months where new intra-month highs have been made by $.57 cents and by $4.52 cents. Nonetheless, those new highs were followed by drops of anywhere from $11 to $14 and since the stock has not had a correction of consequence over the past 17 months and there is no support of consequence until 99.22, the new high will not get me to cover my short positions. Simply stated, I am holding the short positions for now and going with no stop loss. At some point over the next 10 days I am likely to add to my short positions and average up.

AMZN failed to follow through to the downside after the previous week's close near the lows of the week and the bulls were able to get above the previous week's high and close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1008.44 will be seen this week. The stock made a new all-time high weekly close at 1002.94, meaning that on a weekly closing basis it has reached the major psychological resistance at the $1000 demilitarized zone. Fundamentally, the stock is more than fairly valued at this price, suggesting that it needs the overall market to go higher. On an intraweek basis, minor resistance is found at 1009.80, minor to decent between 1016.50 and 1017.00 and strong at 1083.31. Intraweek support is minor at 980.09 and then nothing until 960.60. The stock is showing a breakaway gap between 1040.18 and 1032.85 that is highly unlikely to be closed unless the earnings report that comes out Oct 26th is much better than expected. The probabilities suggest that the stock will get up intraweek to the $1016-$1017 level and then start heading back down. As far as the weekly close is concerned, the probabilities favor a red close next Friday. I am going with no stop loss at this time and expecting that by the following week the stock will be heading lower.

ARNA generated a negative reversal week, having made a new 13 week high and then going below the previous week's low and closing in the red and near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 25.24 this week. The stock had generated 7 green weekly closes in a row and it is likely that the traders will be looking to build and/or confirm a new support base from which to try to get above the 22-month high at 27.84 as they seem to have failed to do that at this time. On an intraweek basis, there is minor support at 24.41. On a daily and weekly closing basis there is decent support between 24.58 and 24.60 that now seems to be the downside target. Probabilities favor the bears this week.

BHTG generated the 5th red weekly close in a row but the stock did get down to the $5 support level on Wednesday and found enough buying interest there to rally $1.29 (19% from the low) over the next 2 days, suggesting the buying interest at $5 is decent. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher probability of going below last week's low at 5.01 than above last week's high at 6.50. By the same token, the bounce from the 5.01 level was strong enough to believe that the bears will have trouble getting the stock back down to that level, much less below it. Any rally above 6.50 would suggest the bulls are back in control and that further upside would be seen. There is minor support at 5.05 that if seen but it holds would give the bulls enough ammunition to rally above 6.50. Probabilities still slightly favor the bulls.

CLF generated a positive reversal week, having gone below the previous week's low and above the previous week's high and closing near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 7.65 will be seen this week. A buy signal was given on both the daily and weekly chart, negating the recent downtrend that started 6 weeks ago when the stock got up to the 200-week MA for the third time in the last 10 months. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek resistance is found at 8.00 that if broken would suggest the stock would move up again to the 200-week MA, currently at 8.30. The MA line has been in place for over 5 years and a test of that line for the 4th time would suggest this time the line would be broken. Decent and pivotal resistance is found at 8.77 that is broken would confirm that the sideways trend that has been in place for the past year would now likely be a new uptrend with the February high at 12.37 as a viable mid-term objective. Support is now decent at 6.91 that if broken would be seen as a negative. Major support is now found at 5.56 that if broken would be a strong negative. Probabilities favor the bulls but the stock did gap up on Friday between 6.96 and 7.17 that will be a magnet unless another gap (considered a runaway gap) occurs first.

ENG generated another red weekly close (the 3rd in a row) and a new 6-week intraweek low but the bulls were able to rally the stock at the end of the week to close near the highs of the week, suggesting further upside above last week's high at 1.23 will be seen this week. If that occurs (likely) it would mean that last week's low at 1.14 would be the second successful retest of the 1.06 low seen 18 weeks ago. If that occurs, it will give the bulls some new ammunition to attempt to break the decent resistance at 1.44/1.46 that has been in place since May and get up to test the 200-week MA, currently at 1.63. It does seem that the bulls have now built a decent support base from which to start working toward higher prices. Support is now likely short-term pivotal at 1.14.

FCEL generated a red weekly close, suggesting that the traders will likely be doing some backing and filling while looking for where the support is now located. Weekly close support is now minor at 2.00 and minor to decent at 1.75. The stock closed slightly in the lower half of the week's trading range, suggesting a slightly higher chance of going below last week's low at 2.01 than above last week's high at 2.37. Daily chart suggests that the stock will likely trade lower this week with 1.95-2.00 as the downside objective. Stock shows what could be a breakaway gap between 1.86 and 1.99 that if closed would take some (but not much) strength from the bulls but if not closed and another gap occurs (runaway gap) would give additional strength to the bulls. Probabilities favor backing and filling this week with a very slight bearish bias.

GS generated a red weekly close that effectively put the brakes on the recent uptrend and made the previous week's close at 246.02 into the required/needed retest of the all-time high weekly close at 252.89. The stock closed near the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 236.84 will be seen this week. Intraweek support below is minor at 236.78 and then minor to perhaps decent at 235.37. The stock is showing a gap below between 231.44 and 232.91 that is likely to be tested if the support at 235.37 is broken. Nonetheless, the company reports earnings on Tuesday morning and that could turn the stock around if better than expected. Minor resistance is found at 240.79 that if broken would suggest the stock would rally to the $244-$245 area. The last 3 earnings reports generated upside movement. The stock has generated 6 red daily closes in a row and consideration should be given to taking profits on Monday before the earnings report comes out.

MNK generated a new all-time intraweek and weekly closing low on Friday and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 33.19 will be seen this week. There is no support below except psychological at $30. The stock gapped down 8 trading days ago between 37.15 and 36.45 and if another gap is made on Monday (very possible) it will give the bears additional ammunition to take the stock down immediately, likely to the $30 level. Minor but perhaps short-term pivotal resistance is found 36.38. Probabilities strongly favor the bears.

SLCA generated the 3rd red weekly close in a row and closed on the lows of the week, suggesting further downside below last week's low at 28.32 will be seen this week. Minor to perhaps decent intraweek support is found at 27.64 which was the low seen in March 2015 when a scenario very similar to what is happening now occurred, with the stock in a recovery rally and a 4-week trading range between 34.20 and 27.64 occurred. With the recent high being 33.72, it does suggest that a drop down to the mid to perhaps low 27's will be seen before the uptrend resumes. In 20.15, the stock resumed the uptrend after 27.64 was seen and got up to 40.17 4 weeks later. Recent intraweek support is found at 26.88 and at 26.35 that if broken would be seen as a decent negative. Probabilities favor the bears this week for a drop down to the mid to low 27's, followed by a positive reversal and a green weekly close next Friday.


1) FCEL - Averaged long at 2.2275 (4 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at .179 (new price 2.15).

2) ENG - Averaged long at 1.764 (5 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1.22.

3) ARNA - Averaged long at 37.25 (4 mentions). Stop loss now at 19.65. Stock closed on Friday at 25.35.

4) CLF - Averaged long at 8.96 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 7.10.

5) GS - Shorted at 246.10. Stop loss at 247.87. Stock closed on Friday at 238.53.

6) SLCA - Purchased at 26.08. Averaged long at 25.375 (2 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 28.36.

7) ZBRA - Covered shorts at 109.32. Shorted at 106.50. Loss on the trade of $282 per 100 shares plus commissions.

8) AMZN - Shorted at 987.95. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 1002.94.

9) AMZN - Shorted at 1006.47. Covered shorts at 1006.39. Profit on the trade of $4 per 50 shares plus commissions.

10) MNK - Averaged long at 42.733 (3 mentions). No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 33.29.

11) ADSK - Shorted at 116.84. No stop loss at present. Stock closed on Friday at 119.63.

12) BGTH - Purchased at 5.07. Stop loss at 4.65. Stock closed on Friday at 5.65.

13) ARNA - Purchased at 20.16. Stop loss now at 24.31. Stock closed on Friday at 25.39.


Join The Oasis and receive chart information about stocks you personally follow as well as ideas about other stocks with powerful chart patterns.

Previous Newsletters

View Jun 11, 2017 Newsletter

View Jun 18, 2017 Newsletter

View Jun 25, 2017 Newsletter

View Jul 02, 2017 Newsletter

View Jul 09, 2017 Newsletter

View Jul 16, 2017 Newsletter

View Jul 23, 2017 Newsletter

View Jul 30, 2017 Newsletter

View Aug 06, 2017 Newsletter

View Aug 13, 2017 Newsletter

View Aug 20, 2017 Newsletter

View Aug 27, 2017 Newsletter

View Sep 03, 2017 Newsletter

View Sep 17, 2017 Newsletter

View Sep 24, 2017 Newsletter

View Oct 08, 2017 Newsletter

Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
A must have for chart aficionados!


Disclaimer

The opinions and commentaries by Mr. De Vito are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a charting guideline, based on his own knowledge and experience, regarding the stocks he is following or that are brought to him by others. Mr. De Vito does not presently offer a track record of his trading experiences. No inference of success and/or failure should be assumed. The information enclosed above, regarding his background, length of trading, and experience, is correct but is not meant to suggest, state, or infer any future success in trading, based on his opinions.

The information herewith included should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. Mr. De Vito accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of the information and/or comments he supplies.




The Oasis is owned by
Oasis Resolutions Inc.